Peyton Manning and the Phillies’ Jimmy Rollins: What’s the Connection?

The biggest story in sports today, as it will be for many days to come, of course, is that after months of speculation, the Indianapolis Colts have decided to part ways with their superstar quarterback Peyton Manning, according to ESPN. 

The four-time NFL MVP has played his entire 14-year career with the Colts.  He led the team to 11 playoff berths, two conference championships and one Super Bowl victory.  Peyton was the city’s shining star, the Colts’ savior, the face of their franchise. 

In short, Peyton Manning was the Indianapolis Colts.  In fact, he was so much the key to their success that without him last year (he was recovering from a serious neck injury), the team, his team, went 2-14.

OK, so what does this have to do with the Phillies?  

If you had asked most football fans and analysts even a year ago they would have said, without a doubt, that Peyton Manning would play his entire career and retire as an Indianapolis Colt.  It would have been unthinkable to most Colts fans that they would ever have to watch their superstar quarterback wearing the uniform of another team.  Even Peyton himself said that he hoped to retire as a Colt.  

But that was not to be.  If Peyton Manning can be let go by the Colts, is nothing sacred in the world of sports?  Yes, I know in the end all sports is a business, ruled by the mighty dollar.  I saw Moneyball.

But what does this have to do with the Phillies? OK, be patient.  It’s coming. 

The thought I’ve had this morning watching all the “where will Peyton go” coverage and seeing the incredible highlights of his storied career is that I’m truly glad that the Phillies re-signed Jimmy Rollins this offseason.

I know the situations are not identical.  And I know that there are many Phillies fans who think Rollins is past his prime, that he’s a lousy leadoff hitter or just that it was time for a change.  I get that, and those arguments can be made.  But there’s another argument that can be made as well. 

That there is something to be said for making that extra effort to keep the face of your franchise. 

That there is something special, especially these days, to see an athlete spend his entire career in one city, with one team.

That there is a place for tradition, even emotion, in sports.

Yes, it’s an intangible, not necessarily a dollars-and-cents decision.  Billy Beane would not approve.

But I do, wholeheartedly.  And on Opening Day when I hear, “Leading off for the Phillies, at shortstop, Jimmy Rollins,” I, for one, will be proudly standing and cheering in my living room glad to see J-Roll back where he belongs. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Fans Should Not Panic over Ryan Howard’s Setback

The Philadelphia Phillies are expected to again reign supreme in the National League East in 2012. After a historic 2011 campaign in which they won a franchise record 102 games, they return largely the same group of players.

In fact, they could be considered better with a proven closer in Jonathan Papelbon and an All-Star RF in Hunter Pence. The fact remains that “The Big Piece” in their lineup will miss time in the early-going.

Ryan Howard had a setback in his rehabilitation from a torn Achilles tendon. He needed an infection cleaned out by the same doctor who conducted his surgery.

He is considered to be out “indefinitely” at this point and that is never good news for a struggling offense. Here’s why Phillies Nation shouldn’t fret Ryan Howard’s setback.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Keys to Winning the World Series 2012

The Philadelphia Phillies won 102 regular season games last year.  They also won 101 games in 1976 and 1977.  Yet in all three of those years, they failed to win a postseason series.  So while it is great to have a team win 100-plus games and get a high playoff seed, what’s more important is winning the World Series. 

The 1980 World Champion Phillies went 91-71 while the 2008 Champs went 92-70.  Obviously, those two squads are considered the “best” in Phillies history, but that is only because they won the World Series.  If the 1977 Phillies faced the 1980 Phillies 162 times, I’d be shocked if the 1977 Phillies didn’t win 90-plus times. 

Same for the 2011 group facing the 2008 bunch.  Bottom line, things have to fall into place; sprinkle in some luck and combine it with talent and you get a World Championship.  Here are the 10 keys to the Phillies winning a World Series in 2012.

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Domonic Brown: Reasons to Worry About the Philadelphia Phillies Outfielder

In the past few years, the Phillies have been incredibly aggressive and competitive when it comes to attracting big-name players. In order to do so, however, they had to make some pretty big trades in which they parted with some of their best and most highly touted prospects. 

It is for that reason that Domonic Brown is even more important to the Phillies organization.

In the Halladay trade, Brown was the one Phils prospect that was considered untouchable. Now, he is on his last option with the team and considered possible trade bait. He hasn’t experienced the meteoric rise to the majors that many expected, and he still has a long way to go if he ever hopes to be a great major league player.

That said, Brown is already 24 and is running out of time to prove to teams everywhere that he can be a major league baseball player. He has come into spring training with a new swing, a new attitude and a determination to win a job on the Phillies roster, which according to Ruben Amaro would only happen if he had an outstanding spring training.

If he doesn’t make the team out of spring training then the Phillies will have some decisions to make regarding the young outfielder.

Brown’s maturation and growing process needs to come to an end now if the Phillies ever hope to get a quality player out of him. 

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Lenny Dykstra Explains Why 1993 NL Champion Phillies Weren’t Winners

Lenny Dykstra was sitting with his back to everyone, facing his locker in the visitors’ clubhouse.  He still couldn’t believe it. He certainly would never accept it.

Joe Carter’s three-run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning won the World Series for the Toronto Blue Jays.

“It always seemed that somehow, some way, we were going to get out of it,” Dykstra said. “It was a weird feeling, seeing that ball fly out of there. I felt helpless. I can’t really describe it.”

Dykstra’s seventh inning, three-run home run had put the Philadelphia Philllies back into the game after they had trailed, 5-1. At the conclusion of the inning, the Phillies held a 6-5 lead.

“I really believed after we took the lead that it would go seven games. I thought, ‘Wow, this was meant to be.’ I didn’t say it out loud, but I believed it. I thought it was destiny.

“Everyone thought the game was over in the third inning,” Dykstra said.

Dykstra had helped the New York Mets win the 1986 World Series. His view of what constitutes a season is identical to the one that George M. Steinbrenner held.

“Just getting to the playoffs isn’t enough,” Dykstra said before the playoffs started. “I know what it’s like to go to the playoffs and win it all, like I did with the Mets in 1986, and I know what it’s like to lose and go home. I don’t want to go home.”

There was only one playoff round in 1993. The winner of the best-of-seven NLCS went on to the World Series.  The wild card didn’t exist and only four teams made the playoffs.

In 2012, there will be a total of six division winners and four wild cards.

Now there will be 10 teams that can claim they had a successful season. To Lenny Dykstra, only one of the those 10 teams will be the real winner.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 6 Dark-Horse Candidates to Be No. 5 Starter

What if there is an injury to the Phillies‘ rotation? What if one of the five (likely in the back end) struggle?

The Phillies will need someone to fill in the slot.

Because of the unlikeliness involved, with Joe Blanton being healthy and Vance Worley looking to follow up great 2011 campaigns, it would take a dark horse candidate to fill in for one of the five.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Predicting Stats for All 25 Players on Opening Day Roster

It’s that time of year again, folks. 

Spring Training is here, the Grapefruit League is underway, and meaningful baseball is right around the corner.

So as the Philadelphia Phillies get in their repetitions, work on various nuances of the game, and most importantly, prepare themselves for Opening Day and another run at the World Series, the rest of us can feel the anticipation building for another baseball season. You know what that means, right? 

It’s predictions time!

Though the Phillies are sure to be a contender once again in 2012, they’ll look quite different. Many faces changed uniforms this spring, and many faces are now wearing the Phillies’ uniform. What will they contribute this season?

We’ll take a look at those guys and the rest of the club throughout the spring, updating with new information as it comes along. So, what can you expect out of the Phillies’ roster in 2012, as it stands on the opening day of the Grapefruit League?

Let’s dive right in.

For news, rumors, analysis and game recaps during spring training, check out Greg’s blog: The Phillies Phactor!

Follow @Greg_Pinto

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Shane Victorino Deserves an Extension

While Cole Hamels has received much of the attention in terms of impending free agents of the Philadelphia Phillies, another player has recently discussed his long-term contract status with the Phils.

Shane Victorino is set to join Hamels as another potential free agent of the Phillies following this season.

Victorino batted .279 with 17 home runs and 61 RBI in 132 games last season.  He also hit 16 triples, the highest total of his career and tied for the most in the National League. Victorino is also a two-time All-Star and a three-time Gold Glove winner.

The career .279 hitter hit the second-highest number of home runs in his career last season, while batting .303 prior to the All-Star break.

As Victorino plays out the final year of a three-year, $22 million deal, his long-term status with the Phillies comes into question as the team attempts to re-sign Hamels while keeping the luxury tax threshold in mind.

Victorino recently stated he prefers a five-year deal, but would also consider giving the Phillies a hometown discount if it means reaching a deal prior to the start of free agency.

While a five-year deal may be a difficult agreement for the club and the 31-year-old center fielder to reach, an extension may still be the best option.

If no deal is reached mid-season, Victorino will join Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton as free agent center fielders. 

Out of the three, Victorino has the highest batting average over the past five seasons combined and the highest average number of hits over the past five seasons. If Victorino is willing to give even a slight hometown discount, it may be difficult to find a significant upgrade through free agency.

Victorino’s future with the Phils may be decided by the play of Dominic Brown and John Mayberry, Jr., this season.

If the Phillies were to look for internal candidates to replace Victorino in center field, Mayberry may become an option to move over from left field. 

However, this move may also be contingent on Brown being ready to take over full-time in left field.

Mayberry started 26 games in center field last season, and has currently started more career games at the position than he has in left field—the position he is likely to start at this season.

Mayberry batted .273 with 15 home runs and 49 RBI in 104 games last season—the most of his career.  Mayberry will battle to become the starter in left field during Spring Training, and may also see time at first base while Ryan Howard recovers from Achilles surgery. 

However, the player who Mayberry is competing with in left field may play a large role in the team’s outfield going forward.

Brown batted .245 with five home runs and 19 RBI in two stints with the Phils last season, and batted .261 with three home runs and 15 RBI at Triple-A.  Brown was forced to change positions following the acquisition of Hunter Pence, and is now attempting to make the Phillies roster as a left fielder.

If he can show improvement this season, Philadelphia may decide to use Brown, Mayberry, and Pence as the team’s outfield following this season.

But that’s if Brown does improve while Mayberry proves he can handle being a full-time starter in the major leagues. 

That may be a big risk for the Phillies to take.

The Phillies may attempt to re-sign Victorino to a three or four year deal while giving some of the team’s younger outfielders more time to develop.  By the time the deal runs out, one of their minor league players may be ready to take over center field duties. 

In addition, the league’s luxury tax threshold is set to increase from $178 million to $189 million for the 2014 season.

Victorino and his .997 career fielding percentage in center field may become an opportunity to save money following this season, as Hamels and Pence near free agency and players such as Carlos Ruiz, Placido Polanco, and Joe Blanton have either upcoming options or expiring contracts.

However, as one of the main contributors and one of the more consistent center fielders in the major leagues, Victorino’s presence in the team’s lineup and in the field may be too difficult to replace through other options.

A five-year deal may be asking for too much, but fewer years in addition to a hometown discount could make for the extension that Victorino deserves following his play in recent years.

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MLB Spring Training 2012: Philadelphia Phillies Debut a Fast Outfield

Even though the Phillies lost their Grapefruit League opener to the New York Yankees on Saturday, there was a lot to like about the afternoon.  

For one thing, it was awesome to just see baseball on TV again—I can only watch so many How I Met Your Mother marathons in the offseason before I lose my sanity.  

More specifically, Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon pitched well, Hunter Pence hit an opposite field home run and Sarge Matthews continued his drastic improvement as a member of the Phils’ broadcast team since his bumbling first year.

One thing that really stood out though, so much so that Tom McCarthy made a note of it almost every inning, the Phillies have a lot of outfield depth and those guys are fast.

The following players played in the outfield during the Phillies’ first spring game: Domonic Brown, Tyson Gillies, Hunter Pence, Juan Pierre, Scott Podsednik and Shane Victorino.  If you need any convincing of their speed, consider the following:

• Domonic Brown was recruited to play wide receiver at the University of Miami.
• Tyson Gillies stole 44 bases in the minor leagues in 2009.
• Hunter Pence actually has the least impressive high steal total of anyone in the bunch (18 in 2010), but is a freakish athlete and a great fielder.
• Juan Pierre has stolen over 60 bases three times in his career, most recently when he stole 68 in 2010.
• Scott Podsednik once stole 70 bases in a season.
• Shane Victorino’s nickname is the “Flyin’ Hawaiian,” how many slow dudes do you know who can be described as “Flyin?”

Since he played first base during the Phils’ opener, none of this even takes into account that John Mayberry Jr., another freakish athlete that has stolen 20 bases in the minors, will be playing a lot of outfield for the Phillies this year.  

Not only should the Phillies outfielders be able to run down plenty of balls in the gap and go first to third on more singles this season, but they’ll be able to maintain the ability to do it even if someone gets hurt.   

However, not all of the cheetahs that played in the outfield during the Phils’ Grapefruit League opener are going to make the opening day roster.  Dom Brown really has to impress to start the year as the Phils’ left fielder, Scott Podsednik and Juan Pierre are probably fighting for the same spot and Tyson Gillies probably doesn’t even have a shot for a couple more years.

But if someone gets hurt or even traded, Brown, the Podsednik/Pierre loser and Gillies will all be there to step in.  

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Phillies and Ruben Amaro Could Learn from Amaro’s Career Stats

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro suggested, to writer Bob Brookover, that scouts shouldn’t rely too much on statistics when scouting the minors:

Amaro said statistical analysis should not be a big part of minor-league scouting.

“It’s just too difficult to really project what the numbers will say,” Amaro said. “I lived it myself. I was a great minor-league player but a terrible major-league player. If you looked at my OPS and my on-base percentage, it was ridiculous.

“But I wasn’t a good major-league player because I couldn’t hit a breaking ball. That’s something that the scout will find out and see and then you can exploit that area on a guy.”

Admittedly, I don’t know to what degree Amaro or his minor-league scouts do or don’t rely on statistics.  And while I would never advocate an organization relying on statistics alone to evaluate minor league players, if we look at the right statistics and interpret them correctly, we can learn a great deal.

Since I was barely a teenager when Amaro started his professional baseball career, I don’t remember seeing him play.  I don’t have a literal image in my mind of Ruben Amaro.  My picture of Amaro as a baseball player is his statistics. 

So let’s scout Amaro, in hindsight, using statistics, without regard to what our eyes told us about Amaro. 

When we look at Amaro’s minor league stats, we see a player who could walk but not do much else.

In 1988, he drew 109 walks but hit .257 and slugged .328.  He was 23 and spent most of that season in A-ball.  So he was not exactly all that young for the level.

 

Sure, a weak hitter can lay off pitches in the low minors but higher-level pitchers are going to just throw him strikes and let him make weak contact. 

The next season, 1989, he again played in A-ball and Double-A.  That season he hit .368 with a .523 slugging percentage but hit only 6 homers in 88 games at age 24.  His walks also dropped to 52, still solid but nothing special. 

He had similar seasons to his 1989 season in both 1990 and 1991.  His statistics on the surface looked impressive but he combined for only 10 homers in 260 games in 1990 and 1991, his age 25 and age 26 seasons in Double-A and Triple-A. 

He drew a respectable number of walks (132) in those 260 games, but nothing outstanding. 

In 1992 he finally played 126 games in the big leagues.  In his 427 major league plate appearances that season he did what we might have expected.  He wasn’t awful in terms of drawing walks (54).  But he didn’t draw enough walks to make up for his lack of ability to hit the ball with authority in order to put up a respectable on-base percentage.

It seems major league pitchers were able to exploit his inability to hit for any power and those pitchers had the command and control to prevent him from drawing enough walks to post the high on-base percentage he put up in the minors.  

For the next four seasons, Amaro bounced around between the majors and minors, and was a league average hitter in the majors over that stretch.

In 1997, he got into 117 major league games but again major league pitchers seemed to exploit his lack of power.  He drew 21 walks, not awful, and he struck out only 24 times but he just didn’t hit for any power (.314 SLG). 

 

After a horrible season in 1998, Amaro retired from playing. 

He had a rather impressive minor-league career, on the surface: .304/.399/.433 in 3,683 plate appearances and 831 games.  However, he hit only 44 home runs. 

Perhaps Amaro and the Phillies’ scouts should use statistics to help evaluate minor leaguers.  They just need to be sure to look at the right statistics and utilize them correctly. 

And they need look no further than Amaro’s career as an example. 

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