2012 MLB: Why the Philadelphia Phillies Will Get Back to the World Series

Much has been made about the decline of the Phillies. Advanced metrics suggest a steep drop-off in the near future for the aging starting pitchers, and evidence of a similar drop-off, both in durability in productivity, has been seen in the offensive cornerstones Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, while the team struggles to sign rising ace Cole Hamels pressed up against the luxury tax.

With the talented, young teams in Washington and Atlanta already gaining, the Miami Marlins went on an offseason spending spree, and the Phillies’ stranglehold on the National League East suddenly seemed as tenuous as it has been since the days of “we’re the team to beat” talk.

Phillies detractors had more ammunition in the spring, when it was discovered that Utley would be joining The Big Piece on the disabled list until at least mid-May.  

While, down the road, prognosticators might be right, and this veteran club might be nearing the edge of the cliff, 2012 is not the beginning of the end. In fact, it just might be one more peak.

In the landscape of the National League, potential contenders has become a buzzword. The Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres and New York Mets are the only teams without supporters of their playoff chances. Of the 12 remaining teams, each has strengths. 

Any argument, though, that the team in Philadelphia is not the best is an argument made in vain. This club won their division by 13 games for a reason, after all.

The starting pitching, obviously, is the chief reason for their superiority. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels each finished in the top five of Cy Young voting last season, and that’s all you really need to know. Each of the three had an ERA below 2.80, a WHIP below 1.041, and at least 194 strikeouts. Since 1900, only 88 times has a pitcher put those numbers up. And three of them were on the 2012 Phillies.

Vance Worley is a rising star, and Joe Blanton is still in the discussion as the best fifith starter in the game.

But this not news. Everyone knows the pitching is dominant, like it has been for the last two seasons. What will separate this Phillies team from others with great starting pitching is the few quality offensive players, fantastic team-wide base-running, the October-proven closer, and, maybe most of all, what has become the best group of defenders, top to bottom, in the majors.

Run prevention will be the key for their success. It’s become apparent that, especially in the absence of Howard and Utley, the Phillies aren’t the offensive juggernaut they used to be. But with this pitching and defense, it might only take three runs a game to win the division.

The guys behind the aces committed the fewest errors in the National League last season (74).  Shane Victorino’s range and consistency have earned him the reputation as the best centerfielder in baseball. Carlos Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco are consistently in the Gold Glove conversation as well. Even Cliff Lee has been recognized as a fantastic defensive player. 

The only Phillies from 2011 who never received praise for their glove work, incidentally, were Raul Ibanez, Domonic Brown and Howard (though his play has markedly improved since his younger days). Ibanez is now a Yankee and Brown was sent back to Lehigh Valley after, among other things, some Ibanez-like defense this spring. It’s clear management values the skill. 

(Another note: As painful as it is not having Utley in the three-hole for the first third of the season, Freddy Galvis is an absolute wizard with the glove. Count us as lucky, because after Utley returns, Galvis will show just how important having a backup middle infielder with his defensive skills can be for the stretch run.)

So with the league’s best defense from 2011 now improved for 2012, we are likely to see even better numbers from the starters (Team ERA in 2011: League leading 3.01). That’s a scary thought for the National League.

Offensively, they will lean on Hunter Pence and Victorino until the cavalry arrives. Even then, though, those two, with Rollins and John Mayberry Jr. helping anchor the middle, Polanco writing the book on hitting in the two-hole, and the uber-clutch Carlos Ruiz on the back end, three-and-a-half runs a game should be the lowest end of estimations. 

Something the detractors seem to ignore is that somebody has to beat them for them not to win. What National League team is better than Philadelphia?

The Marlins don’t have the pitching, or maturity, to keep up, the Braves’ offense makes the Phils look like murderers’ row, and the Nationals are just too young. And for all of the praise the Diamondbacks are garnering,  I would love for someone to explain to me how that rotation can hang with the guys donning red pinstripes. Ian Kennedy is the one comparable starter, but even he wouldn’t crack the top three in Philly.

The only two teams who could have beaten the Phillies last season each lost, arguably, their best player this offseason (Albert Pujols from St. Louis and Prince Fielder from Milwaukee). 

After combing through the contenders, one thing becomes clear: While it might be fun and tempting to pick an upstart to dethrone the Phillies as the NL cream of the crop, all attempts are reaches. They simply don’t have the horses. I know it, Charlie Manuel knows it and in October, so will the rest of the League.

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