Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels Won’t Be Enough for a Phillies Pennant

I know it’s early in the season, but there is a good chance that the Philadelphia Phillies’ lack of offense is not an aberration. Last night’s loss to the San Francisco Giants might be the template for the 2012 Phillies.

Not quite the equal of Juan Marichal and Warren Spahn but close, Cliff Lee shut out the Giants for 10 innings; Matt Cain blanked the Phillies for nine innings; and when the dust had cleared, the single run the Giants scored in the 11th inning won the game.

Though Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels rank among the best pitchers in baseball, too many low-scoring games takes a toll on even the best pitchers. There must be some breathers, but they will be few and far between this season.

The Phillies have averaged 2.92 runs a game. It will increase, but not enough for the Phillies to be considered a real pennant contender. They may make the playoffs only because there will be a second wild card.

No one is certain when Ryan Howard will return, and no one knows if Chase Utley will return. Significantly, how close to the Ryan Howard and the Chase Utley of past seasons will they be?

Although Howard was productive in 2011, batting .253/.346/.488 with 33 home runs and 116 RBIs, his offensive contributions have declined since 2009, when he slugged .571 with 48 home runs and 141 RBIs. 

Howard is 32 years old and coming off a torn Achilles tendon. There is no timetable for his return. Ty Wigginton and friends don’t frighten anyone.

Utley is working with a physical therapist and will meet management when the Phillies get to Arizona. The 34-year-old Utley hasn’t had an Utley-like season since 2009.

Not too many players not named Barry Bonds get better when they reach their mid-thirties.

When the Phillies had Jason Werth, Raul Ibanez and a healthy Jimmy Rollins, along with Howard and Utley, they had enough power to play Placido Polanco every day. Polanco is a winner, a clutch player and comes up with the big play on defense, but having him and Juan Pierre and Freddie Glavis play almost every day cuts into the Phillies’ power production tremendously.

Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino are the only two Phillies that are power threats, or at least solid offensive threats, without Howard and Utley in the lineup. Carlos Ruiz is probably the most underrated catcher in baseball.

The other Eastern Division teams have improved. There is no great team among them, but the division is competitive.  If Howard and Utley cannot made major contributions the second half of the season, the 2012 Phillies will be the 1973 New York Mets.

That season, the Mets averaged 3.78 runs a game, which was 11th best among the league’s 12 teams. Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Jon Matlack and George Stone, along with relief pitcher Tug McGraw, overcame the lack of offense to win the pennant.

The significant fact is that the Mets won only 82 games. Eighty-two wins in 2012 will result in the Phillies watching the playoffs.

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