Philadelphia Phillies: Assessing the Injury Risk of Every Phils Roster Player

If you’re a fan of high-scoring games and the Philadelphia Phillies, the first series of the 2012 regular season was probably a depressing one for you.

It is no secret that the Phillies lineup will struggle without guys like Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, but if the series against the Pittsburgh Pirates was any indication of what is to come, things can get ugly for the Phillies, and fast.

In three games, the Phillies surrendered just seven runs. They lost two of them after scoring just six. You can hang the blame on whomever you like, but at the end of the day, we all know that the Phillies offense is hurting. They can’t afford another injury.

So how healthy are they?

If last season taught this club anything, it should have been that it is necessary to rest older players more prone to injury. They’ll need to rest other injury-prone players as well, though. This slideshow will attempt to determine which players are ready for the long haul and which players should proceed with caution.

In doing so, we’ll use this simple key:

– High: Player is at high risk of an injury and should proceed with caution.

– Moderate: Though seemingly healthy, a player has some type of warning sign(s).

– Low: Player is not an injury risk.

For news, rumors, analysis and game recaps during spring training, check out Greg’s blog: The Phillies Phactor!

Follow @Greg_Pinto

Begin Slideshow

MLB 2012: Philadelphia Phillies Should Stay the Course

Nobody could blame a Phillies fan for panicking.

The same group of fans just watched their Eagles painfully blow four of the first five games in 2011 and never really recover. A supremely talented team left out of the playoffs because of injuries and underachieving play. That is exactly what they are scared of happening again.

In the NFL season, a 1-4 start is crippling. Major League baseball, though, is a marathon, not a sprint.  Instead of having 12 games to turn a disaster into a success, the Phillies have 158 games after starting 1-3.

This team has been though stretches like this, and every time, they come out stronger.

In these first four games, the team has scored eight runs, so, to this point, they are averaging two a game. There were no less than four similarly bad stretches in 2010 and 2011. In 2011, they lost five of six games in May, scoring just 10 runs, and in June they lost four straight games scoring only seven runs. In May 2010, they lost five consecutive games (including four shutouts), and then in late August, they were swept in a four-game set in Houston, scoring seven runs.

Suffice to say, Phillies fans have seen inept offense before.

The reason they will weather the storm is simple; even without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, the players on this team are far better than what they’ve shown this season. The humbling nature of baseball has just hidden that fact for four games.

The most notable early underachievers are Shane Victorino and John Mayberry Jr. 

The Flyin’ Hawaiian has yet to get an extra-base hit in 2012 and is slugging just .308; in 2011, he had 60 extra base hits, including a league-leading 16 triples, and slugged .491. When the law of averages pans out, his pop will show itself and the lineup will become more formidable.

John Mayberry Jr.’s slow start was to be expected, and is expected to continue for a bit; in his four-year career, he has batted .238 and slugged .393 from March to May. In June to October, those numbers jump to .279 and .575.  At the end of the day, he is as good a hitter against lefties as you can find in a platoon, with a .304/.345/.608 slash line (Jose Bautista’s slugging percentage last year was an MLB leading .608). When he gets it going, he will drive in plenty of runs from the bottom of the lineup. 

All the five-time defending NL East Champs need to do is relax and let it come to them. In the meantime, let’s give them a chance to do what they do best.  They have plenty of time to show us they still can.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Possible Short-Term Replacements for Freddy Galvis

Freddy Galvis became the first Philadelphia Phillies player to start on Opening Day while making his major league debut in over 40 years when the Phils opened the regular season against the Pittsburgh Pirates last week.

But as the Phillies struggle collectively to get their offense started early in the season, the team could look to change up their lineup by finding a short-term replacement for Galvis, who has one hit and a .077 batting average in 13 at-bats to start the season.

If the Phils plan on having Chase Utley return from injury around the same time he did last season, or sooner, they may not need a long-term replacement at second base.

With a number of starters cemented at their positions, the Phillies could have to weather the storm until their offense erupts.

However, Galvis and his spot at second base could be looked at for possible short-term replacements.

Begin Slideshow

Philadelphia Phillies: Time to Cut Bait with Placido Polanco

This is not a panic about the rough start to the season for the Philadelphia Phillies’ bats.  Earlier, I mentioned the Phils should move Carlos Ruiz to the No. 2 spot in the lineup and I’ll stand by that until Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return. What I am saying now is that it’s time to say goodbye to Placido Polanco.

Polanco was basically another pitcher in the lineup in the NLDS against the Cardinals last season and the excuse was a bum elbow that had zapped the little amount of power he carries.  This season, Placido reported to Spring Training 100-percent healthy and ready to go.  However, there is one thing that can’t be stopped as far as Placido Polanco is concerned productivity wise—Father Time.

Check out Polanco’s declining slugging percentage in relation to his age:

2007 (31): .458

2008 (32): .417

2009 (33): .396

2010 (34): .386

2011 (35): .339

Slugging percentage directly measures how a player is driving the ball. Polanco can’t do it anymore.  Best case scenarios are now soft liners over the shortstop or second baseman’s head.

Ruben Amaro Jr. replaced Pedro Feliz after the 2009 season by signing Polanco to a surprising three-year, lucrative contract.  It was similar to the three-year contract given to Raul Ibanez after the 2008 season. For both, it appears the third year was one too many.

The Phillies are going to have a difficult time scoring runs this season.  Even when Howard and Utley come back, this offense will be nothing like it was in 2007, ’08 or ’09.  But Polanco is done.  It would be best for the Phillies to play Ty Wiggington at third base and alternate John Mayberry, Laynce Nix and Jim Thome at first, with Mayberry/Nix alternating with Pierre in LF.

Placido is a good guy and put together a fine career with marginal talent.  You can’t argue with a .301 lifetime batting average in over 7,000 plate-appearances.  But for the betterment of the 2012 season, the Phils need more pop and less “pitchers” in the lineup.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: When Will the Team Give Up on David Herndon?

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday—the team’s second in a row—does not mean it’s time for fans to panic. It’s one series very early in the season.

But, it doesn’t mean that players cannot be evaluated, especially those with a history with the team.

That being said, when does the David Herndon experiment end?

The 6’5″ right-handed relief pitcher came on in the ninth inning of a 4-4 game and gave up two hits and the game-winning run, earning the loss. It was his eighth loss with the Phillies since he made his debut in 2010.

Herndon was originally acquired by the Phillies as a Rule 5 Draft pick in 2009, the same way they acquired Shane Victorino. In order for the Phillies to keep Herndon’s rights, they needed to keep him on the 25-man roster for the entire season.

So if the team wanted to give Herndon time to develop and a chance to be an invaluable member of the bullpen, they needed to live with some of his growing pains.

He’s had two years plus one game now. The majority of the time Herndon has disappointed.

He is 2-8 overall with an ERA of 3.85. Opponents are hitting .292 against him. Coming into this season, lefties hit an exceptionally high .343 with a slugging-percentage of .594 against him and righties were hitting a respectable .262.

As stated above, he has eight losses for the Phillies. His four losses last season were tied for sixth most on the team. As for relievers, though, only Kyle Kendrick—who started 15 games out of 34 total—had more losses than Herndon. Danys Baez had as many as Herndon. Even Vance Worley, who made 21 starts, lost fewer games than Herndon.

Herndon’s redeeming “skill” is his ability to get ground balls. Herndon’s go-to-pitch is a sinking fastball, followed by a slider and change-up combination. Getting ground balls is especially important for Phillies pitchers because Citizens Bank Park is known to be a hitter’s park.

The problem is that Herndon still gives up the long ball in abundance. Last season, Herndon gave up nine home runs, the most by any relief pitcher (excluding Kendrick).

Herndon has difficulty getting players out, gets hit very hard and does not come up big when the team needs him.

It makes no sense for him to keep a roster spot if all he is “good” for is mop-up duty in blowouts.

More times than not when Herndon comes in, he hurts the team. The question is how much longer will Phillies management allow him to do so?

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

5 Things First Series vs. Marlins Will Teach Us About the Phillies

The 2012 Philadelphia Phillies started off the season just as they had finished in 2011, as a team that is built around fabulous pitching with an at-times suspect offense. Roy Halladay was (as usual) brilliant as he gave up two first-inning hits, and then surrendered zero hits over the next seven innings. 

The Phillies were able to squeak out one run and that is all that the combination of Halladay and Jonathan Papelbon would need. The Miami Marlins, their new ballpark, home run fountain (weird) and marquee free agents look to burst back into the NL East championship picture. 

Here are five things the first series against the Miami Marlins will teach us about the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Begin Slideshow

25 Philadelphia Phillies Prospects Who Never Lived Up to the Hype

Philadelphia is a city of high expectations and in recent seasons it has been impossible to have any higher expectations than this town has had for its Philadelphia Phillies. “World Series or bust” has become a common phrase, and that isn’t a common occurrence for a baseball club.

It’s a baseball loving town. The Phillies have had their dark seasons—there is no doubt about that—but expectations have remained.

Throughout the history of this organization, it seems as though there is always a certain level of hype over the club’s prospects. When you’re losing, you have hope that they’ll help you win in the future. When you’re winning, you hope that they’ll help you continue your winning ways.

Like any club, the Phillies have had prospects unable to live up to the hype. They’ve had mega-prospects that couldn’t quite live up to their lofty expectations, huge busts, and everything in between.

Though it’s tough to quantify into a ranking, this slide show will take a look at 25 players in Phillies’ history that have failed to live up to their hype by attempting to cross-check their success against their expected success.

Begin Slideshow

Phillies, Thinking Long Term, Are Right to Save Cole Hamels for the Home Opener

Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Vance Worley. Hmm, one of these players are not like the others. It should be Halladay, Lee and Cole Hamels, but the Philadelphia Phillies held Hamels out of the third spot in their rotation for the final game of their season-opening series in Pittsburgh so he could pitch Monday’s home opener at Citizens Bank Park.

Did the Phillies do this for their fans or for Hamels?

Perhaps for both.

Surely, the fans would rather see their A-list star toe the rubber for the first home game. Even though it’s only one of 81 home dates, the home opener takes on greater psychological importance. You want to start out on the right foot.

As for Hamels, it’s a sign from the organization that they care about their former No. 1 draft pick and 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP who, you may have heard, is in the final year of his contract.

The Phillies are acutely aware that last week the San Francisco Giants shelled out $112.5 million to Matt Cain for five years and the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ new owners may want to reassert themselves as the dominant team in the Los Angeles market by signing a marquee free agent.

Hamels is from San Diego. His wife has been on TV as a contestant on Survivor, so there is reason to wonder if the lefty may want to return to southern California.

The Hamels have put down some roots in the Delaware Valley in the form of charity, with their foundation contributing generously to Philadelphia schools. But beyond that, how can any city compete with the emotional pull of home?

While Phillies fans feel ownership of Hamels since he was drafted by the team and came up through the system, ownership knows that Hamels (28 years old) has a much longer shelf life than their two other ace pitchers, Halladay (35 next month) and Lee (34 in August).

As for comparisons to the 27-year-old Cain, who was selected eight spots after Hamels in the first round of the 2002 amateur draft, the numbers are strikingly similar except for W-L. Hamels: 74-54, 3.39 ERA, 1091 Ks, .237 BA, 10 CG. Cain: 69-73, 3.35 ERA, 1085 Ks, .227 BA, 13 CG (stats do not include Cain’s Sunday start).

So, yes, the Phillies can expect to write a huge check if they want to keep Hamels. But he’s proven that he’s worth it, even if paying him means paying Major League Baseball’s luxury tax.

Besides, Worley (6IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 5K) pitched well enough to win on Sunday. Now if the Phillies can only buy themselves some middle relief.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Don’t Be so Quick to Throw Freddy Galvis Under the Bus

To anyone who might be freaking out about Freddy Galvis: calm down!

It’s not that big of a deal that Galvis hit into two double plays in his Major League debut, couldn’t get an RBI in a couple of big spots on Saturday night and is hitless through his first two games.

Is it really that big a concern that the Phillies‘ number eight hitter has 0 hits, when (besides Carlos Ruiz) no other player has more than two?  

Little things are bound to get blown out of proportion early in the year due to the excitement and anxiety that the beginning of the season brings, but we have to remember to keep things in perspective.  

Freddy Galvis is an 8-hole hitter, Freddy Galvis should not have to win games with his bat. Hunter Pence, who is both way more offensively talented and way better paid than Freddy Galvis, also had a chance to win Saturday’s game. Jim Thome had a chance to win the game too. In fact, anyone who came to the plate had a chance to win the game because even one solo home run would have been the difference.

A lot of this has to do with first impressions. Let’s face it, if Galvis started off hitting .400 in the first two games of the season, it’d be a whole different story. We’d already be crowning him rookie of the year, even though he might struggle the next couple games and see his average dip to .250.

Now, even if he hits well his next two games and gets his average up to around .250, everyone will still have a sour taste in their mouths and view that .250 differently based on his first couple games. Nevermind that the law of averages dictates he’ll probably be at .250 one way or another soon enough.

Even if that is an oversimplification, I’m sure you understand what I mean.  Regardless of where a player’s average ends up, initial hot or cold streaks carry a lot of weight perception-wise.

Also, don’t start to clamor for Mike Fontenot or any other utility infielder just yet.  Ruben Amaro Jr. and Charlie Manuel know what players are free agents or available via trade better than we do, and the fact that they haven’t made any type of move yet is more telling than Galvis’ first two games ever could be.

If Rube and Charlie thought there was a better move to be made, or a better player to plug in there, then that move would be made and that player would be playing; if this team struggles, it affects them way more than it affects any of us fans and armchair GMs.

The point is, give the young man some time. Two games is a laughably small window to base judgments of a player’s ability and worth. He’s not going to hit like Chase Utley, nor should we expect him to. As long as he plays solid defense until Chase returns, hits around .250, and steals some bases, he has done his job.

Anything more is just gravy.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Players Who Made Statements on Opening Day

Coming into this season, the Philadelphia Phillies had the most question marks surrounding their team. Not only are they decimated by injuries to key players, but there were still juries out on several new—and even some old ones too—players as well. In short, Opening Day was extremely important in setting the tone for the 2012 season.

The 1-0 win over Pittsburgh, albeit a below-average squad, was just what the Philly faithful needed. An 0-2 start by Miami was pretty pleasing as well.

In my mind, there were five players in yesterday’s game who solidified their position on this team, not only playing well, but also sending messages to the fans and the rest of the MLB.

Read more of my work here. 

Begin Slideshow

« Previous Page — Next Page »