Why Cole Hamels’ Exit Would Mean End of Halladay, Lee’s World Series Dreams

Last season’s playoff exit not only ended the Philadelphia Phillies’ season, but also Cliff Lee’s streak of two-consecutive World Series appearances.

However, in a rotation that also features the likes of Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, Lee may have a good chance of pitching in the World Series once again.

Halladay and Lee’s combined win total of over 300-career games gives the Phils one of the major league’s strongest starting rotations, and one that is currently leading the National League in strikeouts and ranked third in ERA.

But could the chances of Lee reaching another World Series and Halladay reaching his first take a hit this offseason?

For as dominant as the two pitchers have been since joining the Phillies and throughout their careers, Halladay and Lee’s World Series dreams could be dealt a major blow if Hamels does not re-sign with the team.

From 1999-2009, the seasons in which Halladay made more than 10 starts for the Toronto Blue Jays, the team finished in second place in the American League East once and never made the playoffs.

Since joining the Phillies prior to the 2010 season, Halladay has made five starts, including a no-hitter in his first ever playoff game, and has a 2.37 ERA.

From 2004 to midway through the 2009 season, the seasons in which Lee made more than 10 starts for the Cleveland Indians, the team made the playoffs once, although Lee did not appear in the postseason.

In two stints with the Phillies, Lee is 4-1 with 42 strikeouts in six postseason starts, including two complete games.

However, neither of these pitchers has won a World Series yet.

Hamels, who has a 3.09 ERA in 13 postseason starts for the Phils, has been a part of a World Series title, and has also won World Series MVP honors.

The three pitchers have appeared in multiple postseason games for the Phillies, although in different seasons, since 2009.  Apart from each other, only Hamels has a World Series title.

And if Hamels doesn’t re-sign with the team, Halladay and Lee’s chances of appearing in a World Series may become even more difficult.

While Hamels will not turn 29 until after the season, Halladay and Lee will be 35 and 34 years old, respectively, by season’s end.  Halladay has also pitched over twice as many innings as Hamels.

With Joe Blanton also set to become a free agent, the Phillies could have two spots in their rotation to fill.  Which means the team may have difficulty putting together another starting rotation capable of posting a 3.15 ERA and 250 strikeouts through 43 games.

Meanwhile, the Phillies’ highest ranked pitching prospects are currently pitching in Double-A or lower levels in the minor leagues.  By the time these prospects reach the major league level and start finding success, Halladay and Lee may be impending free agents whose ages put them closer to 40. 

Hamels’ exit could force the Phillies to find either free agents or minor league prospects to place into the starting rotation with Halladay and Lee, which may be no easy task.

The team may also be forced to upgrade areas besides the starting rotation.  The Phillies’ lineup has received its share of criticism this season after getting off to a slow start, and Halladay and Lee have witnessed firsthand the team’s early season lack of run support. 

Halladay is currently 4-4 with 56 strikeouts and a 3.58 ERA.  However, after beginning the season 3-0, the Phillies lost Halladay’s next five starts.  In 10 starts by Halladay this season, the Phillies have scored two runs or fewer six times.  Although Lee is currently winless this season, the team has scored two runs or fewer in four of his six starts.  Lee has still posted a 2.66 ERA while striking out 40 batters.

If the Phillies’ offense continues to struggle once Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return, the team could be forced to find upgrades to their lineup in addition to replacing Hamels.  Which means the chances of Halladay and Lee appearing in a World Series could be tied to how quickly the Phillies can replenish their roster.

In addition to possibly having to replace 40 percent of their starting rotation this offseason, the Phillies could feel the effects of losing Hamels in the postseason.  In a best-of-five series, a pitcher such as Vance Worley, Kyle Kendrick, or an offseason acquisition may have to pitch the third game of the series.  Although the Phils would still be competitive, their chances of advancing in a postseason series would not be as high without Hamels in the picture following starts by Halladay and Lee.

Of course, if Hamels does return, the Phillies’ starting rotation could remain as the consistent backbone of the team going forward. 

Since joining the Phillies and a rotation that includes Hamels, Halladay has struck out over 215 batters in each of his two full seasons with the team.  Prior to pitching in a rotation that also includes Hamels, Halladay’s season high for strikeouts was 208.  He had also only eclipsed the 200 strikeout mark in a season three times before joining the Phillies.

Halladay had one season while with the Blue Jays in which he had an ERA under 2.75 while making at least 10 starts in a season.  While pitching for the Phillies, Halladay has never had an ERA over 2.45.

Lee’s lowest ERA with the Indians was a 2.54 mark during his Cy Young award winning season in 2008.  Last season in his first full season with the Phillies, Lee posted a 2.40 mark.

Although both Halladay and Lee have won Cy Young awards with teams other than the Phillies, both pitchers have seen some of their best seasons take place with the team and in a rotation that also includes Hamels.

With Hamels in the rotation, both Halladay and Lee may have their best chances of reaching a World Series.

Without Hamels, Halladay and Lee’s World Series dreams may vanish.

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