Is It Finally Time for the Phillies to Accept That 2012 Is a Lost Season?

Could rookie infielder Freddy Galvis be the physical embodiment of the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies?

Earlier this week, Galvis was diagosed with a fractured vertebra. To treat the injury, he’s been outfitted for a brace which he’ll have to wear for three weeks. During that time, he can’t engage in any physical activity. Galvis has to wear the brace at all times, except when he showers. 

But here’s the sentence from Matt Gelb’s Philadelphia Inquirer story that may as well be talking about the entire Phillies team, rather than just Galvis:

“The Phillies rookie second baseman will miss significant time with the injury, but the team is not ready to proclaim his season over.”

Just take out “rookie second baseman” and substitute “his” with “their,” and you’ve essentially summed up the 2012 season for the Phillies right there.

The Phillies did what they needed to do this week in taking two of three from the lowly Minnesota Twins. But prior to that, the Phightins slogged through one of their worst stretches of the season. They suffered a four-game sweep at Citizens Bank Park to the Los Angeles Dodgers and lost two of three to the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards.

The Dodgers series was especially troubling. Not just because no team should lose all four games of a particular series at home, but because the Dodgers have the best record in the National League. This was a chance for the Phillies to see whether or not they could hang with the top competition in the NL. Viewing it as a test, however, the Phillies failed miserably.

Over the past week, Philadelphia has dropped three games in the NL East standings. Going into Friday’s play, the Phillies are nine games behind the first-place Washington Nationals.

They can still make a climb and get past the Miami Marlins, who are only two games ahead. The Braves are within striking range, too, four games up on the Phillies.

But are the Nationals already out of reach? They seem to be getting better each week and should continue to improve as their injured players come back. 

Yes, the Phillies have some wounded men set to return as well. But they’ll have a considerable hole to help dig out of when they get back on the field. 

The counter-argument is that the Phillies are only 4.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race, and with an additional team getting into the playoffs, there is still an excellent chance at getting into the postseason.

Yet there are seven teams ahead of the Phillies in the Wild Card standings. That’s quite a few clubs to climb over to get to the lead. All seven of them aren’t just going to fall down like dominoes and let the Phillies walk into the playoffs. 

But that Wild Card makes for a difficult decision on whether or not to pull the plug on 2012 and start selling off assets. Can general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. really justify doing so when the numbers say his team is still in the race and fans keep filling Citizens Bank Park with expectations of a playoff berth and postseason run? 

Unless the Phillies start winning some games and making a notable move up the standings, talk about them being sellers at the trade deadline is only going to get louder. ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden rates the Phillies as a “possible” seller, listing Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino and Domonic Brown as players they could deal off. I think you could add Hunter Pence, Joe Blanton and maybe even Jonathan Papelbon to that list. 

David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News composed an excellent post detailing what sort of return the Phillies could expect in return for each of the potential trade pieces on the current roster.

Going by Murphy’s formula, should the Phillies trade Hamels if they could get a top-50 prospect, along with two to three other players that are considered top-10 prospects for a particular team? 

If you’re the Phillies and you have doubts not only about being able to contend for the playoffs this year, but also question whether or not you can re-sign Hamels if he opts for free agency, don’t you have to make that move at this point? 

Re-signing Hamels can’t be completely written off as we near the three-month mark of the season. The Dodgers just signed Andre Ethier to a contract extension and he was due for free agency this winter also. 

But Hamels and his people don’t seem interested in signing any deal now. And why should they? Matt Cain got $127 million from the Giants. What could Hamels get when teams are competing for his services, some of whom figure to have big money to spend? 

The risk of losing Hamels with no return is too great at this point. And what is the reward if the Phillies do re-sign him? Another $20 million pitcher on the payroll that further handcuffs Amaro from using available funds to upgrade left field, third base or the bullpen? Would any money be left for possibly re-signing Shane Victorino? 

Of course, re-signing Hamels would give the Phillies a sure thing, unlike whatever prospects would be yielded in a trade. Justin Smoak and Matt LaPorta looked like huge returns in deals for Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia, respectively. But neither player has yet become the cornerstone player that’s expected with such a trade. 

Phillies fans surely don’t want to hear this. But writing off this season and selling some pieces now will help make next year’s team stronger. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will hopefully be back healthy to join whatever new additions Amaro can make at midseason and during the winter. Sacrificing 2012 for a better 2013 is a noble endeavor. 

 

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