Philadelphia Phillies MLB Draft 2012: Why Shane Watson Was a Great Selection

The Philadelphia Phillies made a good decision by going after right-handed pitcher Shane Watson with the 40th pick of the 2012 MLB draft.

Mark Narducci of the Philadelphia Inquirer asked Watson what his best pitch was:

“My curveball is my best pitch,” Watson said. “It is kind of like my Visa Express card, I can use it whenever I want.”

Obviously he has a sense of humor, but the main point in this quote is that he has a highly developed curveball. According to River Ave. Blues (the Yankees also had some interest in drafting Watson), that curveball sits in the upper 70s and low 80s.

He complements that with a fastball in the low 90s although since he is a large person (6’4″, 200 pounds) there is definitely the potential for more velocity. That being said, in the same article from River Ave. Blues, it was reported that he has hit 96 and 97 at showcase events, so that velocity might already be there.

The Philadelphia Phillies are definitely an aging team, and Watson will not make it to the major leagues for a little while. However, the Phillies do have an exciting crop of young starting pitchers coming through the minor leagues.

Watson will only add to that strength. All he really needs to do is add a changeup to remain in the starting rotation. His fastball would be all right, and he already has that strong curveball.

Compared to many high school pitchers, Watson is in a good place, and the Phillies made a good decision.

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

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Why Ryan Howard, Chase Utley Are Now Incapable of Playing Phillies’ Hero Role

Ryan Howard and Chase Utley will soon be back, but it’s too late. The Philadelphia Phillies are already doomed.

Should we slow down a bit?

Yeah, let’s slow down a bit.

The good news is that I’m not lying about Howard and Utley being back soon. According to a report from Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, the two of them batted six times in an extended spring training game on Wednesday. 

Here’s how Salisbury characterized the situation: “If this were a football game, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley would be entering the fourth quarter.”

Yup, they’re close.

Assuming there are no setbacks, both Howard and Utley could embark on minor league rehab assignments in a couple weeks, and join the Phillies a couple weeks later.

At this point, the Phillies can realistically expect to have both Howard and Utley back shortly after the All-Star break, and maybe even before if they’re lucky.

The bad news is it doesn’t matter.

The Phillies are basically counting on Howard and Utley to rescue them, and that’s asking too much. They may have been capable of heroically rescuing the Phillies once, but not anymore.

Phillies fans know the score when it comes to Howard.

He was the game’s most feared power hitter once upon a time, but his power numbers took a major dive in 2010 and 2011. He used to be good for a slugging percentage in the .550 range and an ISO (a measure of a hitter’s raw power) in the high .200s.

In 2010, he barely managed a slugging percentage over .500, and it dipped to .488 in 2011. His ISO was in the low .200s in both 2010 and 2011.

I won’t go so far as to call Howard old, but he’s definitely not a young man anymore. He was starting to crumble as an offensive force in 2010 and 2011, and then he ruptured his Achilles in the postseason.

He is now a declining player with a major injury and a long layoff in his wake. A player like that is not going to magically return to his glorious form of yesteryear.

The same is true of Utley, except his situation is even more disconcerting.

His decline as a hitter was even more sudden than Howard’s, and it was certainly more serious. He was a remarkably consistent producer for five straight seasons, and the next thing we knew he was slugging well below .500 and missing games left and right.

The time off will probably help Utley more than it will help Howard, but only to a degree. His knee problems are degenerative, meaning the fear of random flare-ups is not going to go away when—or if—he returns to the big club.

He’s going to need special treatment and time off, and there’s hardly any guarantee that he’s going to be able to hit like he used to when he is able to play.

Will Howard and Utley provide Philly’s offense with a boost?

Sure. It’s not like it’s going to be subtraction by addition. The two of them aren’t that hopeless.

Their returns just won’t be a significant boost, and that’s an issue.

The Phillies have a respectable team batting average, but they rank in the middle of the MLB in runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Theirs is a mediocre offense.

All Howard and Utley will do is make it a little less mediocre.

Meanwhile, the Phillies will probably also be dealing with the absence of staff ace Roy Halladay, who is going to be out for up to two months with a bum shoulder, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Staff ace No. 2 Cliff Lee has already spent some time on the DL this season, and he’s still winless on the season.

The bullpen is an entirely different headache.

Jonathan Papelbon has been good. So has Antonio Bastardo.

Everyone else, not so much. It’s not a shock that the Phillies have one of the highest bullpen ERAs in the majors.

Bill Parcells once said, “You are what your record says you are.” The Phillies’ record of 28-29, entering Wednesday, says they are both a subpar ballclub and a last-place ballclub. 

As if the Phillies weren’t already in enough trouble, this year they have the added challenge of coming back and competing in a very deep National League East.

It only had two legit contenders last year, and this year it has four legit contenders—all of whom are ahead of the Phillies in the standings.

Of the bunch, I for one can see the Mets falling off the pace. But the Nationals, Marlins and Braves are quality clubs who are going to hang around all season.

The Phillies are currently on pace to win 80 games. It’s probably going to take at least 90 to make the playoffs.

If the Phillies are still one game under .500 at the All-Star break (43-44), they’re going to have to play .630 baseball down the stretch to even have a shot at the postseason.

The old versions of Howard and Utley could have made that kind of impact, but not these new ones. Their returns will be too little, too late.

This just isn’t the Phillies’ year.

 

If you want to talk baseball and/or yell at me, hit me up on Twitter.

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Predicting the End-Year Stats for All 25 Philadelphia Phillies Players

The 2012 season has been a roller coaster ride of twists, turns, loops, spins, climbs, and dives for the Philadelphia Phillies, and we’re only two months in.

It’s been an odd season for this Phillies’ ball club. With some of the injuries they’ve faced, including guys like Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard, you wouldn’t expect this ball club to be in contention, but they are.

Though they’ve been in last place for most of the season, the Phillies have remained within striking distance throughout the season, and that is undoubtedly because of the fact that their fill-ins, replacement, and bench players have played well.

They’ve also had a number of guys who played smaller roles in the past step up and become major contributors.

But if the Phillies have any intention of conquering the challenging National League East and laying claim to their sixth consecutive division crown, they’re going to need certain players to have good statistical seasons.

Here’s a little forecast of what the player’s numbers could look like on the final day of the season.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Players Who Are Key to a Philly U-Turn

The Philadelphia Phillies picked a bad season to flirt with the .500 mark. 

At this time last season they were 11 games over .500, two years ago they were six games over, and three years ago they were 11 games over once again. But more importantly, in all three of those prior seasons their current 28-29 record would have been good for second or third place in the NL East.

But in the 2012 version of the NL East, it has them sitting in the cellar.

This year’s NL East is the most-improved, deepest, and quite possibly the best division in baseball, with only the American League’s Eastern division giving them a run for their money.

The Nationals have allowed the least runs in baseball by a shockingly large margin. The Marlins are the hottest team in the NL. The Mets are 31-21 despite a negative run-differential––which, along with Johan Santana’s improbable eradication of the team’s no-hitter curse, is starting to make this feel like a blessed season. And the Braves, the only other team in the division that was supposed to play well this season, have been as steady as ever.

Translation: the Phillies aren’t gonna ascend into playoff contention by waiting for their peers to regress to the mean. One, maybe two, of the four teams ahead of them might be off to fluky starts that will fade away through the doldrums of summer. But some of them will stick.

If the Phillies want to return to the playoffs this season, they’re gonna have to get markedly better. Here are the five players who are most essential to a Philly U-turn in 2012.

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5 Signs You Shouldn’t Trust Ruben Amaro Jr. as Phillies GM

Ruben Amaro, Jr., of the Philadelphia Phillies has had his work cut out for him since day one of his tenure as the team’s general manager.

When Amaro was named as the Phillies’ general manager, he was not only filling the shoes of former GM Pat Gillick, but also inheriting a roster that had just won a World Series title.

No pressure.

Since taking over as GM, Amaro has witnessed the Phillies’ payroll increase from approximately $104 million in 2008 to approximately $174 million this season.

To his credit, Amaro has never seen the Phillies finish out of first place in the NL East while serving as GM, and he has brought players such as Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee (twice), Roy Oswalt, Hunter Pence and Jonathan Papelbon to Philadelphia.

To his discredit, he has also traded over 10 prospects in recent seasons and is currently watching the Phils, with the second highest payroll in the major leagues, fight their way out of the bottom of the NL East.

Amaro has consistently given the Phillies a chance at reaching the World Series each season.

But that doesn’t mean he should always be trusted.

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Jonathan Papelbon Rips Umpire, Exemplifies Classic Freudian Tantrum Trait

Phillies pitcher Jonathan Papelbon was a classic case study in Freudian defense mechanisms Monday night. After surrendering the game-winner to the Los Angeles Dodgers and taking the loss, Papelbon decided to blame someone else for his misfortune.

To say Papelbon was off his game might be an understatement. He gave up a leadoff triple and an RBI single before settling down and retiring the side. After the inning, he was ready to challenge plate umpire D.J. Reyburn; ready to get ejected and show the world that the mean man in black unjustly ruined his night.

Instead, as the half-inning concluded, crew chief Derryl Cousins stepped in between Papelbon and the plate, preventing Papelbon from making good on his umpire-baiting intentions: “The other umpire [Cousins] came over and said, ‘What are you doing over there?’ and I said, ‘I’m going to ask [Reyburn] a question,’ he wouldn’t even let me ask him a question.”

In classic Freudian psychology, defense mechanisms are unconscious strategies employed by living beings to cope with reality and to maintain a sense of self-image. For the psychologists amongst us, Papelbon was a perfect case study in defense mechanisms on Monday night.

Specifically, Papelbon’s rant to the media was the embodiment of the Level 2 (immature) mechanism known as projection. Defined as a primitive form of paranoia, projection involves blaming others for self-failure and shirking responsibility or guilt because one cannot cope with consciously admitting personal faults. In stating, “I thought [Reyburn] was terrible,” Papelbon coped with giving up the game-winner by shifting blame onto someone else.

In the neurotic categorization of mechanisms, Papelbon demonstrated rationalization, also known as making excuses to justify questionable or overtly puerile behavior. Shot down by Cousins in his attempt to confront Reyburn, Papelbon rationalized that his performance was superb and fully ruined by the umpires.

To summarize, the entire interview given by Papelbon was a textbook example of the immature defense mechanism known as acting out, which is what Papelbon also occasionally does on the mound.

Finally, we consider the pathological defense mechanism of denial and distortion: Did Reyburn really miss a significant number of calls during Papelbon’s outing?

In a word, no.

Though Papelbon did not receive one called strike during his performance, the Dodgers were decidedly aggressive at the plate in their last at-bat, swinging at 14 of the 17 pitches seen in the top of the ninth.

The three pitches not swung at were all ruled balls. Because MLB employs pitch f/x technology, we may use computerized measurements corresponding to ball location to determine the accuracy of these calls.

To assist us in this endeavor, the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League has determined the following horizontal increments of pitch location (px values) to determine balls/strikes quality of correctness (UEFL Rule 6-2-b-1):

• 0.00 to 0.768 – The pitch must be a strike.
• 0.769 to 0.935 – Due to the pitch f/x system’s margin of error, this pitch is borderline and may be either a strike or a ball. Such determination cannot conclusively be proven.
• Greater than 0.936 – The pitch may be a ball.

The UEFL’s determination for horizontal pitch location is much simpler: Normalized height values greater than 1.000 shall be ruled balls, while values less than 1.000 shall be ruled strikes.

For Papelbon’s outing, we consider: 

Ball No. 1: Located well into the right-handed batter’s box, this pitch was clearly a ball (px of -1.356).

Ball No. 2: With a px value of 0.809, this pitch is borderline and cannot be conclusively confirmed as a ball nor a strike.

Ball No. 3: With a normalized height of -1.75 and px of 1.464, this pitch is obviously a ball.

 

To review, “terrible” and “probably needs to go back to Triple-A?” These are simply defense mechanisms that are not rooted in reality, but psychologically manipulated thoughts designed to protect oneself from anxiety, disappointment or other negative thoughts relating to self-image.

This is not a phenomenon unique to Papelbon—Yorvit Torrealba threw a huge tantrum the other day in Anaheim—but it demonstrates the volatile emotions of the sport and clearly delineates between players who are mature and emotionally healthy, such as former Tigers pitcher Armando Galarraga, and those who have yet to reach that state. 

 

Gil Imber is Bleacher Report’s Rules Featured Columnist and owner of Close Call Sports, a website dedicated to the objective and fair analysis of close or controversial calls in sports.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies Have Gone to the Dogs

After their team lost two out of three over the weekend to the Miami Marlins (and they’re not looking much better this week against the Los Angeles Dodgers), Philadelphia Phillies fans could sure use something to smile about.  

Maybe this will help.

Thanks to the kindness (and wackiness) of some readers who love their pets almost as much as their baseball (OK, they probably love their pets a little more), I bring you a slide show bound to cheer you up, even as our Phillies keep moving down in the standings.  

After all, cheering up is what man’s—and woman’s—best friend does best.

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Fantasy Baseball 2012: Players on the DL It’s Time to Dump for Good

Forgive any fantasy baseball players currently confusing the disabled list for an All-Star ballot.

The big-name injuries just keep coming.

ESPN’s Jayson Stark reports that while total DL placements aren’t higher this year than last year at this point in the season, total time on the DL has increased significantly.

The names landing on the list are even more stunning. Down with every top-dollar MLB casualty in real life goes a player that cost either a high draft pick or lots of fake money in Fantasyland.

Matt Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki, Jacoby Ellsbury and Roy Halladay were all first-round selections in fantasy drafts this spring.

Jered Weaver and Cliff Lee were both ranked among the top five options at starting pitcher. Pablo Sandoval and Ryan Zimmerman drew similar rankings among third basemen.

Mariano Rivera is considered the greatest closer of all time. Drew Storen, Andrew Bailey, Ryan Madson, Brian Wilson and Huston Street all entered the season as solid options for fantasy owners at the position as well.

Ryan Howard and Chase Utley would have been ranked highly at first and second base if not for their injuries heading into the year.

All this doesn’t even mention high-caliber players such as Carl Crawford, Kevin Youkilis, Brett Gardner, Michael Morse, Allen Craig, Lance Berkman, Chris Carpenter and Jayson Werth.

Unfortunately for fantasy owners, their disabled list is much shorter and more limited than the real-life version. Many leagues offer only one or two DL spots, if any at all. The superstar injury epidemic thus leaves tough decisions on which players to keep in those spots and which players to drop.

Here are a few injured stars you can dump if you need that precious roster space.

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Philadelphia Phillies: How the Phillies Can Get to First by the All-Star Break

The good news?

We’re about a third into the season, and the Philadelphia Phillies are only four games out of first.  A few breaks here or there, and we’re talking about a first-place club. 

They are in the top half of the National League in batting average, slugging percentage, ERA and fielding percentage.  The pitchers have struck out the third-most batters in the league, and the hitters strike out less frequently than those of any other team.  Carlos Ruiz is in the MVP discussion, like Cole Hamels is with the Cy Young. 

Now, forget everything you just read.

A look at the stat sheet doesn’t begin to tell the story of the 2012 Phillies.  This team has been one of the most painful to watch in recent memory (save for the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles, but that’s another article).  It has been a constant, collective letdown—seemingly night after night. 

The worst part of watching a team that won 102 games last season mosey along to a 28-28 record has been the inconsistency of the units. 

For the first month, the pitching was outstanding, and the Phillies couldn’t score any runs. 

Then, for a while, the offense picked it up, and the bullpen starting blowing leads.

Once the bullpen got it together, a combination of ineffectiveness and injury seemed to dismantle the once daunting rotation.

As the calendar turned to June, we appeared to be back to square one.  This is a club with no identity, and that’s something that can mitigate the success of even the most talented teams.

The only thing that will restore the Phillies to the game’s elite are the healthy, productive returns of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay.  Anything short of what those three All-Stars gave in 2011, and this is an 84-78 team. 

Luckily for them, the National League East, while stronger than it has been in years past, might be full of a lot of 84-78 teams when all is said and done.  It’s about finishing ahead of the other clubs in the running, and a few quick fixes might give them a leg up in the short term to do just that.

First and foremost, they need to figure out a way to win close games.  They are 0-22 in games in which they trailed at the start of the eighth inning, the only team yet to win one of those contests.  They are also 1-6 when they go to the ninth inning tied with the opponent. 

This points to two problems—one, the thinness in the bullpen, and two, the ineffectiveness of the hitters against late-inning relievers. 

The first can only be solved one way—trade for a reliever.  Baseball writers have discussed the options, should the Phillies be buyers at some point before July 31, of adding a bat at either third base or left field. 

These needs are infinitely less pressing than the need to have an arm ready to go in a tight game in the eighth or ninth.  We’ve seen the scenario far too many times this season—tie game on the road, Bastardo already used up, and Chad Qualls or Joe Savery or some other schmuck comes in and gets banged around. 

There needs to be another reliable arm in the bullpen, period.

The second problem can be solved by—gasp!—being more aggressive at the plate late in the game.  The whole world knows that the best pitchers in baseball, both starters and relievers, beat you by getting ahead in the count and then finishing you off on junk. 

Much like the way hitters have adjusted to Halladay over the years and learned to swing early in the count, a swing a 0-0 might put a guy on second to start the inning.  Move the runner over, then a ball to the outfield, and “Let’s Go Eat.”

The other way the Phillies get themselves back to the top of the standings in the short term sounds crazy, but hang in there—stop challenging good hitters.

The Phillies have allowed hitters to homer (3.1 percent of the time) more than other team in the NL.  The have surrendered extra-base hits more frequently (8.8 percent) than any club below 5,000 feet.

Now, that sounds like the fix would be just to keep the ball down.  But they are doing that—sometimes.  Opposing hitters have hit into a Major League-leading 50 double plays against the club, and they are converting them at a higher rate than anyone.    

So, that means they are going soft and away with men on base and fewer than two outs, but leaving balls up or in the rest of the time.   Why not just pitch cautiously to everyone?  Just because it’s simple doesn’t mean it isn’t true.

Ok, the last quick fix might be the most painful of all. 

Jimmy Rollins need to get off of the field.

The 2007 NL MVP has been a train wreck since signing his new deal last offseason.  He is hitting .237 and slugging .312.  Twenty-two percent of his at bats have resulted in infield flies.  Another 13 percent have been strikeouts.  

That means that over a third of the time, he is an absolutely wasted at-bat.  His defense, while not to the excruciating extent of his offense, has declined a bit too.  Plus, he’s lost a step.

Tell me this: What happens to Freddy Galvis when Chase Utley returns from the disabled list?

Galvis was groomed to be a shortstop.  He is better than Rollins defensively (if you don’t agree with that, than you haven’t been paying attention), but that isn’t really a shock.  He has hit for considerably more power than the artist formerly known as J Roll in 2012.

The 22-year-old is slugging .068 points higher than Rollins, banging out 19 extra-base hits to Rollins’ 12, in 34 fewer at-bats. 

Rollins trails Galvis in every major statistical category except average, OBP and runs.  His average and OBP are still laughable for a leadoff hitter, though. 

And Rollins would struggle to score too if he was batting in front of a pitcher and the worst offensive player on the team.  (The thought of Rollins trying to drive himself in might rediscover the dead-ball era, so I’ll stop there).

While it wouldn’t be perfect, if the Phillies can do these simple things—acquire a late-inning reliever, be aggressive against good pitchers, stop challenging good hitters, forget Jimmy Rollins at the airport—then they might be able to get back to the top of the division by July.

If they are in that position when the cavalry arrives, we might be in for another great summer.  Let’s just hope the fall is better this time.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Phillies Lineup on August 1st

After 56 games, the Phillies are a .500 team that have spent the majority of the season in the cellar of the National League East.  One of the reasons the Phillies have underachieved this season is the injuries they suffered even before the season began. Some Phillies have thrived with the opportunities for playing time, mainly Juan Pierre and Freddy Galvis.  Others have not stepped up at all….see John Mayberry.

Word is that Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are not close to returning, however, their return to the lineup is at least closer than where it has been. Howard is probably a month away from the big leagues as he tries to strengthen a calf that has lost muscle, and Utley has just started to play extended Spring Training games in Florida.

The competition in the National League East is pretty tight.  However, there isn’t really a powerhouse team that’s going to leave the rest of the division in the dust.  Trades made between now and the trade deadline could determine who gets the edge in this division and if someone can break the Phillies five-season-long NL East Championship streak? It doesn’t matter what trades are made, though, teams are not going to be able to add players of Howard’s and Utley’s caliber. 

So how does Charlie Manuel pencil in a lineup when he gets all of his horses back?  There are rumors that Utley won’t necessarily come back as a second basemen.  But if he’s not at second, where will he play?  There are three logical choices.

1) Third base-  If Manuel moves Utley to third, this bumps Polanco out of the lineup, along with his stellar glove and a bat that has continuously gotten better as the season has gone on. 

2) First base-  If Howard wasn’t coming back, Utley would be a nice fit at first. However, there is absolutely nowhere else where Howard can play, so the big man stays at first.

3) Left field-  Hmmmm, interesting.  Utley hasn’t played outfield in the major leagues.  A couple of second basemen have made that transition the past few seasons and have done okay.  Martin Prado of the Braves is a solid left fielder, while Alfonso Soriano of the Cubs will never come close to winning a Gold Glove, but he’s good enough to get by.  Like Pat Burrell and Raul Ibanez, Utley could play left and would probably even be an upgrade defensively over those two.  And obviously, they won quite a few games with those subpar defenders in left.

If Utley moves to left, that leaves impressive rookie Galvis at second where his Gold Glove defense and improving stick can continue to develop.  So come August 1st, when the Phillies have played their best ball in recent history, this is how Charlie Manuel should write the lineup:

1. Jimmy Rollins- SS  

2. Chase Utley- LF

3. Hunter Pence- RF

4. Ryan Howard- 1B

5. Carlos Ruiz- C

6. Shane Victorino- CF

7. Placido Polanco- 3B

8. Freddy Galvis- 2B

Rollins needs to get on base more for any of this to work. At this stage in his career, Utley is more suited for the two-hole, and it breaks up him and Howard, who both hit left.  If Ruiz continues his torrid pace, he and Pence could switch between the third and fifth spots, but Pence’s speed makes it better to hit him in front of Howard.  Victorino hit sixth quite a bit when Jayson Werth hit second and Burrell was fifth during the 2008 season so he’s fine there.

The odd man out in all this is Pierre.  He’s been a fine addition to the 2012 Phillies, but when Utley and Howard return, it would be best to have him off the bench late in games to pinch run or pinch hit.

The 2012 season is not a lost cause yet, even with injuries to Howard and Utley, while Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Vance Worley have all been shelved at some point.  But take a look at the last two World Champs: ’11 St Louis Cardinals and ’10 San Francisco Giants.  Both of those teams were hovering around .500 after the All Star break and got hot at the right time to go all the way.  For the Phillies to do the same, the above lineup is the way to go.

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