Mitch Gueller to Phillies: Video Highlights, Scouting Report and Analysis

Position: RHP/OF

Height/Weight: 6’3”/205 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

High School: Rochester HS (Wash.)

College Commitment: Washington State

 

An immensely athletic ballplayer who has flown under the radar, Gueller is a player who profiles equally well on the mound as he does in the outfield. However, given his strong showing on the mound this spring, chances are he’s developed as a pitcher.

The right-hander’s fastball sits in the low-90s and occasionally scrapes 95-96, and he consistently locates in down the zone with late life. His curve has steadily improved all season, too, featuring excellent pace and late downward movement. Gueller also has a changeup in his arsenal, although it’s a seldom thrown pitch and undeveloped due to his lack of experience.

A three-sport standout in high school, Gueller’s athleticism gives him a high ceiling as well as a chance to reach it. Furthermore, it should aid his development in the minor leagues and provide him with a chance to reach the major leagues in late 2016 or early 2017. 

Analysis: Will likely wind up at the mound, has a chance to profile as an above-average outfielder as well. A while away from the bigs, but holds a high ceiling.

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Shane Watson to Phillies: Video Highlights, Scouting Report and Analysis

Position: RHP

Height/Weight: 6’4”/195 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

DOB: 4/25/1994

High School: Lakewood (Calif.)

College Commitment: USC

 

One of the top prep right-handers in the state of California, Shane Watson’s fastball sits 91-94 mph and scrapes 95. Given the right-hander’s frame, I think that he’ll add a few ticks in the future and consistently sit in the mid-90s once he develops.

His curveball is easily his best pitch, a 12-to-6 downer that already receives a plus grade. He also throws a changeup, though he noticeably lacks a feel for it at times and struggles to throw it with consistent speed differential.

Oddly, Watson pitches from the extreme third-base side of the rubber, which gives hitters an unusual look at each of his pitches. The setup especially aids the deceptiveness of his fastball-curveball mix, as he throws everything from basically the same three-quarters arm slot. At the same time, he drills too many right-handed hitters due to the late, tailing action on his fastball.

Like most prep pitchers, Watson will need sufficient time in the minor leagues (or USC) to refine his mechanics and secondary pitches. But once he does, we could see him in the major leagues at some point in late 2015.

The Phillies used a compensation pick (after losing pitcher Ryan Madson to the Reds) to take Watson with the No. 40 overall pick.

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25 Bold June Predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies Roster

Results from the first two months of the season have been a mixed bag for the Philadelphia Phillies.

It is easy to focus on the bad, the most obvious of which is the disabled list. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have not played a single inning this season. Roy Halladay is on the shelf. So is Jim Thome, Laynce Nix, Jose Contreras, Mike Stutes, David Herndon, and Michael Martinez.

Ouch. They would be shoo-ins for the Disabled List All-Star Game, if such a thing existed.

It is not so easy to focus on the positives, but believe it or not, there were plenty of them. How about the hot starts of Carlos Ruiz and Jonathan Papelbon? The Phillies may have finished the first couple of months in last place, but on the first day of June, they sit just 2.5 games out of first.

There is a lot to look forward for this ball club in the month of June. There is a light at the end of tunnel for a lot of these injured players and the club is firing on all cylinders right now.

A quick look at the schedule shows that this could be a big month for the Phillies. Here are some predictions that should help determine what needs to go right, and as always, what to watch out for.

Follow @Greg_Pinto

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Philadelphia Phillies: 2012 MLB Season Reality Check

In the Philadelphia sports world, there’s a lot of disappointment and buzz surrounding the beloved Phillies at this point in the 2012 MLB season. There’s talk of mediocrity, injury and under-performing; in short, the Philly sportswriters are doing well at creating a little panic.

Here’s the reality of the situation around baseball on June 4th, 2012:

If you look around the standings, you will see that the team with the most wins in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers, has merely 33. That’s only five more than the “mediocre” 28-27 Phillies have. This shows how much parity there is around Major League Baseball.

The Phillies are not the only team that are not playing to their potential, and they surely are not the only team fighting the injury bug.

Look around, Philadelphia sportswriters and fans.

The Red Sox and Yankees aren’t that much better off than Philadelphia. Actually, to date, Tampa Bay is currently sitting atop the AL East with Baltimore (2-8 in their last 10 games) in second place.

Texas has played well out West, yet still holds a 32-22 record.

Detroit was supposed to be a serious contender, with AL Cy Young winner and MVP Justin Verlander leading their rotation and after the signing of Prince Fielder in the offseason. Yet you look at their record of 25-29 and check out their latest box score, which shows three guys hitting under the Mendoza line, and it makes you wonder what is going on in Detroit.

Look around the league. It’s in every division: parity, injury problems and underperforming.

Surprise standouts from around the league include the San Francisco Giants’ Melky Cabrera currently holding the NL’s top batting average, while in the AL, Chicago White Sox slugger Paul Konerko tops the same stat. Pitcher Gio Gonzalez, a former Philadelphia prospect—who, if memory serves, was traded by Philly twice—tops the strikeout leaders in the NL and is among the league leaders in several other categories.

My point is this: It’s June 4th, and no one has made the playoffs yet.

So, Philly sportswriters and fans, relax. There’s still 108 games to be played (not including tonight’s).

Ryan Howard and Chase Utley will be back eventually, and how well they perform will be an indicator for how much the team improves over the course of the second half of the season.

The two big-hitting stars will likely return around the time that ace of aces Roy Halladay returns. Hopefully, he is healthy and pitches more like the Doc Halladay we know.

Until then, there are many improvements that can be made.

Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino can hit a lot better than what they have been, and it all starts with becoming more selective at what they swing at. You can’t teach an old dogs new tricks…or so they say. So, unless those two decide to start trying to work walks instead of hitting the first or second pitch to an infielder or popping out, the run totals and win-loss column likely won’t change much until the aforementioned three players return.

The one thing Philly fans can count on is this: If the team recovers and makes the playoffs in 2012, it will be a team that more closely resembles the 2008 champions.

Why?

Because they are forced to overcome more obstacles this year than any other, since ’08, to perform at the level required to succeed.

To achieve this success, it will require group synergy, hunger to win, mental and physical toughness and some luck that can only be created through a lot of hard work. And these things are what the City of Brotherly Love is known for best…outside of cheese steaks and the Liberty Bell, of course.

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Philadelphia Phillies MLB Draft Results: Scouting Profiles for 2012 Picks

As we head into the 2012 MLB draft, the Philadelphia Phillies are in need of replenishing their farm system.

While they do not have a first-round pick this year because of the Jonathan Papelbon signing (they forfeited their first-round pick to the Boston Red Sox upon signing Pap), they do have two picks in the compensatory round: 40th and 54th, respectively. That signing has worked out pretty well for them, though, considering Pap is tied for fourth in saves in all of Major League Baseball.

In all, the Phillies will have 42 selections this year.

For those that wish to follow along, MLB.com will be streaming rounds two through 40, which is down from last seasons 50 rounds. The team has 12 picks in the first 10 rounds.

In the form of compensation, the team has $4,916,900 allocated in the bonus pool for signing draft picks, which breaks down as follows:

First pick: $1,291,900 

Second pick: $940,200

Third pick, 77th overall: $659,800

Fourth pick, 95th overall: $500,000 

The later picks will obviously make less as the draft runs deeper.

The Phillies have a solid list of both college and high school prospects on their radar worth mentioning, with a majority of their focus on pitching. Of the 12 players thought to be high on the Phils’ draft board, six are pitchers.

 

College Prospects

The team has been tied to six top college prospects in terms of realistic draft opportunities at any of their four top-100 selections. Those players are:

LHP Logan Ehlers, Howard

RHP Pierce Johnson, Missouri State

RHP Pat Light, Monmouth

MIF Kenny Diekroeger, Stanford

SS Nolan Fantana, Florida

OF Jeff Gelalich, UCLA

 

High School Prospects

As with their college prospects, the Phillies have a large focus on high school arms in which they are looking at. Here are the top six high school players rumored to be on the team’s draft board:

RHP Mitch Brown, Century High School

RHP Nick Travieso, Archbishop McCarthy High School, Florida

RHP Shane Watson, Lakewood High School, California

OF Anthony Alford, Petal High School

OF Lewis Brenson, Coral Springs High School

C Wyatt Mathisen, Calallen High School

Check back here for live updates as the Phillies make their first four selections in the MLB Draft for complete player analysis and Major League projections!

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Philadelphia Phillies: Projected Stats at the 1/3 Season Mark

One-third of the season is complete for the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies. They are 28-26, which translates to a full season of 84-78. 84-78 will not get them into the postseason, and frankly, would be quite a disappointing season.

Here’s where the Phils were at the one-third mark the past few seasons and their record the rest of the way:

 

2007: 26-28 (.482) and 63-45 (.583)

2008: 30-24 (.556)  and  62-46 (.574)

2009: 32-22 (.593)  and  61-47 (.565)

2010: 30-24  (.556) and 67-41 (.620)

2011: 34-20 (.630) and  68-40 (.630)

 

2009 was the only season where they didn’t improve, but a 61-47 mark for this season’s team would put them at 89-73, which should be good enough for the postseason this year. The question is, do the Phillies have the horses to get it done?  If Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay return to some sort of form of their former selves, no other team will be able to say they have added that kind of firepower at the trade deadline.

As for the rest of the roster, let’s see how their numbers are projecting over an entire season.

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MLB Draft 2012: Ranking 25 Worst Draft Busts in Philadelphia Phillies History

Major League Baseball’s amateur draft can be like one giant crap-shoot.

Sure, the draft has come a long way since it’s inception and nowadays, is more like a science than an art. But it’s not a perfect science. When it comes time to make a choice on draft day, teams have to man up and take a gamble.

No draft pick is guaranteed success.

That’s what makes this event both a blessing and a curse. Teams can find themselves banking their future on a “can’t miss” prospect that eventually misses. Then what do you do. On the converse, teams can build their future with the call of a single name.

The possibilities are endless. Teams can grow sour with their draft picks, believe they’re a bust, and do away with them. Josh Hamilton says hello.

But for the Philadelphia Phillies, it has been a murky situation. This is an organization that hasn’t always put the effort into building a winner, so if you’re looking for anything with numbers in this franchise, check out the “draft busts” category.

For a long time, the Phillies weren’t on Lady Luck’s good side. Even when they tried to make a good pick they failed. It created a long history of huge busts for the organization, and with draft day right around the corner again this year, now seems like as good a time as ever to see where the Phillies of the past went wrong.

Here are the Phillies’ 25 biggest draft busts.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Can the Offense Survive If Carlos Ruiz Slows Down?

With Ryan Howard and Chase Utley beginning the season on the disabled list, players such as Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and even Hunter Pence were expected to carry the burden of the Philadelphia Phillies’ offense.

However, through 52 games, Carlos Ruiz has exceeded expectations in the absence of key players.

In 45 games this season, Ruiz has an incredible .371 batting average to go with eight home runs and 31 RBIs.  In 143 at-bats, Ruiz has struck out just 15 times.

Among Phillies regulars, Ruiz is either leading the team or tied for the lead in hits, RBI, batting average, OBP, slugging and OPS.

Chooch has also recently provided the Phils with an option for the cleanup spot.  In 17 at-bats from the four spot, Ruiz is batting .529 with just one strikeout.

For as many contributions as Ruiz has made to the Phillies’ offense so far, the team must also be aware of the fact that it is currently being led by a player who is a career .273 batter, and one who has predominantly been an eight spot hitter throughout his career.

Which brings up the question, can the Phillies’ offense survive if Ruiz’s blazing starts cools off and returns to the types of performances reminiscent of recent seasons?

The Phillies’ offense took major strides in May following an opening month of the regular season that saw the team’s run production and RBI total rank in the lower half of the National League.

A major reason for such offensive improvements could be the surge that Ruiz had from April to May.

After batting .313 with three home runs and 10 RBIs in April, Ruiz’s bat got even hotter in May, as he batted .418 with five home runs, 21 RBIs and an OBP that was more than twice as high as the one he posted in the previous month.

Ruiz not only leads in batting average among National League catchers with at least 100 plate appearances, but his .371 mark puts him in the top-5 in the major leagues among players, regardless of position, with at least 100 at-bats.

He’s also created a great deal of separation in terms of batting average between himself and the NL catcher with the second-highest average, Jonathan Lucroy of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Ruiz ranks either first or second in nearly every major offensive category among NL catchers.

According to fangraphs.com, Ruiz’s 2.6 WAR value is currently the highest among major league catchers with at least 100 plate appearances.

But it’s where his offense currently ranks for the Phillies that has seemingly kept the team afloat after a slow start to the season.

Among Phillies players who have played in at least 40 games this season, only Juan Pierre currently has a batting average over .300.  Pierre has also only started in 33 games.

After Ruiz and Pierre, the next-highest average belongs to Placido Polanco, who is batting .275, with a .208 mark against left-handers.

More importantly, Ruiz is batting .342 with runners in scoring position, and has driven in 23 runs.  Only Shane Victorino has driven in more than 15 runs while batting over .300 with runners in scoring position.

Without Ruiz’s 31 RBIs on the season, the Phils’ RBI total as a team would take them from their current ranking of fifth in the NL down to 13th.

Furthermore, Ruiz’s surge at the cleanup spot has allowed Pence to move into the three spot in the lineup.  Since the move, Pence has seen his average increase from .254 to .262 in a seven-game span.

With Howard and Utley out, the Phils have had to rely on players such as Ruiz, Rollins, Victorino, Pence and John Mayberry, Jr., as returning players who were expected to dictate the level of success of the team’s offense.

So far, Ruiz seems to have easily passed the test.

	2011 AVG.	Current AVG.
Carlos Ruiz	.283	.371
Jimmy Rollins	.268	.239
Shane Victorino	.279	.250
Hunter Pence	.314	.262
John Mayberry, Jr.	.273	.244

Although these players have time to improve their averages, their early drop-offs have not helped the Phils climb out of the bottom of the NL East.

The Phillies’ lineup has begun heating up recently, but the improved numbers must continue for the team to reach the top of the NL East and separate themselves within the National League.

The Phils have players capable of keeping the team competitive until reinforcements in the form of Howard and Utley return, but no player has stepped up their performances in the meantime quite like Ruiz.

Ruiz’s blazing start could cool off and his offense could still be considered one of the best in the major leagues to start the season.  However, a drastic decrease in production could put the Phillies further back in the National League, with less time to rebound.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Cole Hamels Suitors If He Hits the Trade Block

To say that starting pitcher Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies is having a good season would be an understatement. He’s tied for the major league lead in wins with eight, is second in the NL with 72 strikeouts, and eighth in the NL with a 2.43 ERA. In addition, his WHIP of 1.01 is good for seventh in the NL.

To put it honestly, Hamels has been stellar this season.

However, there are a couple of interesting factors surrounding the Phillies’ best starting pitcher this year. Hamels is a free agent after the season and will likely be the most coveted pitcher on the market, if not the most treasured player hitting free agency in the coming offseason. Whether the Phillies will be willing to pay his asking price, which could be historic for pitchers, is one of the biggest questions looming for other teams potentially interested in bringing Hamels into their organizations.

The more pressing issue right now, at least, is that the Phillies are having a subpar season. Although their 27-25 record leaves them just three games out of first place, the Phils are in last in the NL East. If the Phillies don’t get to the top of the standings anytime soon, they could be sellers at the trade deadline, which could mean that Hamels would be available in a trade. And while it’d be a large deal, some teams could be able to make that deal.

Should the Phillies fall out of contention, here’s a look at five teams who have the assets to make a trade and could use the Phillies’ left-handed ace to bolster their rotation.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Examining Cliff Lee’s Strange Winless Streak

I suppose that there are worst fates in life than the current one that is facing Phillies‘ co-ace Cliff Lee.

A little perspective will reveal that the man seems to have his health, a great family, and those proverbial 21.5 million, and escalating, reasons to be happy. And yes, he seems to be a happy guy who can probably get along on a whole lot less. Add to all this the fact that he is playing where he wants to and where he is adored by his fans, and life is okay.

Did I mention that he seems to always be one of the focal points of his sport come the postseason? That is true of his last few years, and he is playing for a team that could give him more shots at a ring. Well, they could; just a little more on that in a bit.

Putting all of those rather nice considerations aside, one then considers the following. After two months of the 2012 season, one of baseball’s greatest and most competitive hurlers has no wins. Zero. Zip. Nada. And it’s not as if Lee has pitched poorly. No, that’s hardly the case.

So, if we can muster some baseball sympathy for a multi-millionaire who seems to have it all (but a single win in 2012, that is), perhaps, we can do so for Cliff. Well, can’t we?

It must be killing him to have a 3.00 ERA, excellent peripheral numbers and be saddled with an 0-2 record as the calendar flips to June. One usually can’t tell by his calm, team-oriented demeanor, but that has to be the case, right?

Here is a factoid for you and Mr. Lee to ponder. Ten, yes, 10, other Phillies pitchers have at least one win this year.

Jake Diekman (with his somewhat misleading 5.68 ERA) is 1-0. Chad Qualls (who has looked as poor as his 4.68 ERA indicates) has found his way to a 1-1 record. Even Raul Valdes, bless his heart, is 2-0. Cliff Lee? No wins and two losses after eight starts.

By the numbers, Lee has averaged more than seven innings per start (58 innings in eight starts), which is the highest of anyone on the staff, including Cole Hamels, who is enjoying an 8-1 season. He has gone at least six innings in all eight, and six of the outings have been quality starts—three or fewer earned runs in six or more innings. Of course, if there was any baseball justice, he should have been credited with multiple quality starts for the masterpiece he threw in San Francisco on April 18. Ten (yes, 10) innings of seven-hit, no walk, shutout ball earned him a no-decision in a game that the Phillies lost 1-0 in the bottom of the 11th.

Cliff Lee’s WHIP (1.02) is eighth best in the National League, and just a hair higher than Hamels and another pretty fair lefty, reigning Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw. In fact, the combined win-loss record of the pitchers with a better (most only marginally so) WHIP is 40-13, or an average of roughly 6-2.

If ERA is your thing, of all the18 pitchers in the NL with an ERA of 3.00 or lower, only two others (the similarly jinxed Ryan Dempster of the Cubs at 0-3 and the Nats’ Jordan Zimmerman, who somehow is stuck with a 3-5 record) have a losing record.

Do you like strikeout-to-walk ratios? Despite missing three starts, Lee is ranked 26th in the league with 54 Ks, achieved in only 57 innings. He has issued fewer free passes than any of the others, and his 5.4 K/BB ratio is the best in the NL, just ahead of Hamels and the Giants‘ Matt Cain.

Another puzzling thing about Cliff’s winless streak is that Lee does about as much to help himself—he fields, hits (batting .333), runs the bases and works quickly—as any pitcher in the game.

There must be a reason that the Phils have looked like the 1962 Mets when he has been the pitcher of record and the 1927 Yankees once he is removed. Wednesday night’s box score will reflect that the Phillies beat the Mets 10-6, and of course, they did. Some sites will even show that the Phils scored 10 runs for Lee. Of course, nine of those runs came after Lee’s six innings of work.

The good news in all this is that these things should even out over the 162-game campaign. One would think so, anyway.

Ironically, Lee’s numbers are almost identical to Hamels’ in many categories this year; Cole, though is 8-1 to Cliff’s 0-2. Hamels should be able to relate to Lee’s current misery; he suffered through an eight-start winless streak in 2010. As I observed back then, Hamels also threw the heck out of the ball during that skid.

Phillies fans and fans of what I call baseball justice must be hoping that Lee’s streak will end at only eight starts.

…

ONE MORE THING: 

Despite zero wins from Lee, a strangely ineffective (although now we understand why)  Roy Halladay in May, an injury to Vance Worley and the reappearance of the bad Joe Blanton—and I didn’t even mention the absence of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard—the Phillies are only three games out of first place with more than two-thirds of the season to be contested. As the five-time defending NL East champions, that may offer a glimpse of optimism.

 

Matt Goldberg, a Featured Columnist for the Phillies the last two seasons, writes frequently for Bleacher Report as well as for philly2philly.com and jewocity.com.  Please check his site, tipofthegoldberg.com and new fan page for more info.

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