Will Charlie Manuel Be Sacrificial Lamb for Phillies’ Embarrassing First Half?

The Philadelphia Phillies entered the 2012 season as five-time defending NL East champions. All five of those division titles came under the sage-like gaze of manager Charlie Manuel.

It is under that same sage-like gaze that the Phillies have gone from first to worst this season. They ended Major League Baseball’s unofficial first half with a record of 37-50. As Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer pointed out, it took a lot longer for the Phillies to get to 50 losses in 2011:

The Phillies lost their 50th game last season on Sept. 12. They were 94-50. They are 37-50 right now.

— Matt Gelb (@magelb) July 8, 2012

At the rate the Phillies are going, they’re going to end the season with over 90 losses. For them to turn things around and make it back to the postseason, they’re going to need both good health and a few miracles.

If Jonathan Papelbon feels like doing some sort of rain dance jig, that probably wouldn’t hurt.

In times like these, a lot of peoples’ first impulse is to blame the manager. There’s some of that going around where Manuel is concerned at the moment. Barring an epic turnaround in the second half, one obviously has to wonder if this will be Manuel’s last season in Philadelphia.

Shoot, one has to wonder if he’ll even make it to the end. When a team is playing as poorly as the Phillies are, the manager is never safe.

…But nobody should be reaching for torches and/or pitchforks. This isn’t one of those situations.

One thing that’s for sure is that the Phillies aren’t going to fire Manuel because they think firing him will be the spark the Phillies need to snap out of their funk. Phillies fans tend to give Manuel (and everyone else under the sun) a hard time, but even they have to realize that it’s not Manuel’s fault that the team is so far under .500.

It’s not his fault that Chase Utley and Ryan Howard were just featured in the same lineup for the first time all season a couple days before the All-Star break. Manuel did not ruin Utley’s knees, and he did not rupture Howard’s Achilles. The team struggled to score runs without the two of them, but Manuel can’t be blamed for that either.

Nor can he be blamed for Roy Halladay’s shoulder woes or Cliff Lee’s various issues.

Though some have ventured to criticize his handling of the bullpen, it’s not Manuel’s fault that the Phillies lack both depth and talent in their bullpen. What they have out in the pen would be good enough if the team’s starters were going seven or eight innings every night, as they did last year, but that hasn’t happened in 2012.

So, it’s not like we’re talking about a really good team that is underachieving. We’re talking about a team that has been undermanned all season due to injuries. 

According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Phillies’ Pythagorean winning percentage says they should have a record of 41-46 this season. Given all that has gone on, this essentially indicates that the Phillies indeed should be under .500.

Firing Manuel would accomplish little. Removing him from the equation would not return Utley and Howard to the form of their glory days. It would not make Doc Halladay a Cy Young contender again. It would not add more wins to Lee’s record. It would not fix the bullpen.

In other words, firing Manuel will not make the Phillies great again. Firing the manager can be a useful means to light a fire under a team’s collective posterior. But the Phillies aren’t one of those teams. If anything, firing him would make things worse, not better.

If Manuel is fired this season, it will be a mercy firing. And this is only going to happen if it’s clear by the trade deadline that it’s not happening this year (that’s already clear enough, of course). By this time, the Phillies likely will have already traded ace lefty and free-agent-to-be Cole Hamels. Probably Shane Victorino as well.

But again, it’s hard to see this happening during the season. Manuel has been around since 2005, and the Phillies have finished second or better each year he’s been in the dugout. He doesn’t get a ton of respect as a manager, but any manager who wins a World Series at least deserves his share of respect from his own organization.

If the organization knows in August and September that the Phillies are out of the race, it will not do Manuel the dishonor of cutting him loose. At worst, that would be disrespectful. At best, it would be an awkward and anticlimactic end to a great run.

Even if this does end up being Manuel’s final season as the skipper of the Phillies, it’s more likely that both sides will wait until the season is over before they come to some sort of mutual agreement. Manuel only has one year left on his contract, so it’s not like either side is into this relationship for the long haul.

Of course, this is a scenario that’s dependent on what kind of personnel moves the Phillies make in the next couple months. If Hamels and Victorino are both shipped out of town or leave as free agents, then it’s going to be clear that the Phillies are headed towards something of a rebuilding phase.

Manuel shouldn’t want to be around for that. And if that’s the direction the Phillies are going to go in, they may as well find themselves a new manager.

One way or the other, don’t expect Manuel to be out as manager of the Phillies as a form of punishment. If he loses his job over this season, it will be because everyone will have realized that the timing is right for his departure.

Try not to boo him if and when he leaves town, Philadelphia. This has been a rough year. But the rest? They were OK.

 

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Phillies Trade Rumors: Trading Cole Hamels Would Be a Poor Move for Philadelphia

Cole Hamels has been a pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies since his MLB debut. Trading him now, after a mediocre start this season, would be a very poor decision for Philadelphia.

The July 31 trade deadline is quickly approaching and the Phillies have a big decision to make: keep Hamels or let him go?

True, his stats have been up and down throughout his time in Philadelphia. His ERA went from an awful 4.32 to a 2.79 last season. And so far this season, he’s jumped back up to a 3.20.

But Hamels has also given a lot to the Phillies. He’s been a popular name for the franchise and built a close relationship with the team and its fans. According to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, Hamels is interested to see how he does in the market, but would ultimately give the Phillies the first chance to sign him. That would be a wise decision on Philadelphia’s part because should Hamels be traded, the Phillies’ clubhouse would be very unhappy.

Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reported:

“Hamels’ teammate Jonathan Papelbon says he and his teammates understand the business side of the game, but that trading Hamels would still not go over well in their clubhouse”.

Giving Hamels another chance to recover in the second half of this season would be better than creating turmoil in the clubhouse.

Hamels is still a strong player and would be the “premier free-agent on the market” (via Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com) should the Phillies not offer him an extension.

The team is 13 games under .500, has lost 10 out of the last 11 games in what is becoming the Phillies’ worst season in recent memory. So trading one of their high-profile pitchers might not be the wisest move. They could still use Hamels on the mound. Hamels has said he wants to be on a winning team (via Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com), and who doesn’t? Without Hamels though, the Phillies might not see that in the near future.

The Phillies should keep Hamels in red pinstripes for a little while longer.

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Philadelphia Phillies Need to Be Sellers and Completely Rebuild the Roster

Things are not looking good in Philadelphia. The Phillies have had a horrendous first half, and their 37-50 record reflects many issues with the team.

They are the second-oldest team in the MLB and do not have the depth to back up their injured stars. Their healthy stars have not played well at all, either.

Beyond the injuries and age, the Phillies have simply lacked heart and coherence this season. They are an embarrassing 0-37 when trailing after seven innings. While nobody expected them to be running away with the NL East again, being 14 games back in the division is unacceptable.

Blame can be spread all over the place. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. did pretty much nothing to provide insurance for the injured and aging Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

After signing Jonathan Papelbon, he left the rest of the bullpen up to Chad Qualls, Antonio Bastardo and Michael Schwimer. He could have gone after someone to take over at third base, or play either corner outfield position, but he tried to plug in Juan Pierre.

Amaro is also stuck with paying Ryan Howard $95 million over the next four seasons and Cliff Lee $72 million over the next three seasons. Chase Utley will make $15 million next season, while Roy Halladay brings in $20 million.

These four players are 32, 33, 33 and 35, respectively. Meanwhile, they have played a combined 38 games this season. That is not good.

A couple of weeks ago, there was still hope that the season could be salvaged with the returns of Halladay, Howard and Utley. Halladay, however, has yet to return, Howard’s return saw the team go scoreless, and the Phillies have been 1-10 with Utley in the lineup. Though Lee has played the whole season, he only has one win.  

Any of those four—especially Lee and Utley—could be enticing to a team that wants to make a big push in the second half of the season. If Amaro can get a good prospect for one of them, it would be a smart decision. 

Cole Hamels is probably going to be on the move at the trade deadline, and he should be. The Rangers are rumored to be the favorites, which is fine, as long as the Phillies get some good talent in return.

Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino are the other two Phillies still with some trade value, and they should be packaged in a deal as well. Victorino is hitting an abysmal .245, and his attitude has been in question recently as well. Pence has been decent at the plate, but the rest of his game leaves a lot to be desired. 

Domonic Brown has seemingly disappeared as well, and not moving him last year is looking like another miscalculation by Amaro. He has been battling injuries but hasn’t hit well in the minors when healthy.

Juan Pierre has been a pleasant surprise this season and could be part of a package. Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick have a little value, too.  

Carlos Ruiz is literally the only player I would want to keep. He is a rock behind the plate, among the top of the MLB in hitting, and should stay in Philadelphia.

Other than that, Amaro needs to make some major changes to turn around this franchise. The present is pretty bleak, but the future is even darker.  

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Phillies Trade Rumors: Is Dealing Cole Hamels the Right Thing to Do?

For the Philadelphia Phillies, trading a 28-year-old All-Star starting pitcher who is still in his prime can’t be a way to improve the team for the future, can it?

Unfortunately, a 50-loss first half and 17-27 home record have put the Phillies in a position that they didn’t want to be in at the trade deadline.

Not only could the team turn into sellers if play doesn’t pick up, but All-Star Cole Hamels has still yet to sign a long-term deal.

The timing of these two instances has led to widespread speculation involving Hamels being dealt at the deadline. Unfortunately, this season has revealed multiple areas in which the team needs improvement for both this season and going forward.

And no player could bring in more pieces for turning the Phils back into contenders over the next few seasons, which brings up the question: is trading the left-hander the right thing to do?

What may be most alarming about this season involves Baseball America’s Midseason Top 50 Prospect List, posted by J.J. Cooper. The list contains Baseball America’s ranking of the top 50 prospects in the minor leagues as of July 1, and does not include those players drafted last month.

Not one Phillies prospect is on the list.

Meanwhile, potential prospects whom the Phillies could acquire for Hamels find themselves ranked high on the list.

According to Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal on yardbarker.com, the Texas Rangers have scouted Hamels, and Double-A third baseman Mike Olt could be part of a potential deal.

Baseball America ranks Olt, who is batting .294 with 22 home runs and 63 RBI, at No. 11.

With Placido Polanco having a $5.5 million mutual option for next season, third base is a position that the Phils could be looking at for a replacement, and a younger, cheaper player may fit the bill. A cheaper free-agent signing to serve as a segue until Olt is ready for the major leagues could save the Phils a great deal in payroll rather than targeting a high priced free agent.

A recent article by Corey Seidman on CSNPhilly.com lists Nick Castellanos, a third baseman currently playing in Double-A for the Detroit Tigers, as another potential acquisition.

Castellanos was recently named MVP of the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game.

Castellanos, who is batting .307 with four home runs and 15 RBI at Double-A, is ranked at No. 12 by Baseball America.

Baseball America also ranks former Phillies prospects Travis d’Arnaud, Jonathan Singleton and Anthony Gose in their top 50 list.

Trading Hamels provides an opportunity to once again have a farm system that features top 50 talents.

The trade speculation surrounding Hamels took an interesting turn following a recent interview with Leslie Gudel on CSNPhilly.com. In the interview, Hamels responded to a question asking if there was a possibility that he would sign with the Phillies in the offseason if he is traded this season.

“It’s an organization and I understand the business side and I won’t be offended.  I think you need to know your players and because I think I’ve been here long enough, I think [the front office] pretty much understands my personality and they know that if something had to arise, I wouldn’t be offended and I still would give them the benefit of the doubt and come back, because this is one of the best organizations I’ve ever seen.  It has the best fan base I’ve ever seen.  It’s a great place to play baseball and there are a ton of great guys to play baseball with.”

Although this can hurt the Phillies’ chances of obtaining multiple high-ranking prospects in a deal, contending teams will still be willing to trade at least one top prospect even if they are only acquiring Hamels for the rest of the season.

And if Hamels hits free agency, he has said that the Phillies would be a top choice of his, as a recent article by Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com explains.

“I’ll always give them the first choice,” he said.  “If there are multiple teams I’m always going to put them at the top of my list.”

To further make matters interesting, the Phillies are likely currently exceeding the luxury tax threshold for this season, meaning the team has to shed salary in order to avoid paying the tax.

Of course, the Phils could trade other players in order to get under the tax threshold. But with multiple areas in need of improvement, the Phillies could have to continue spending during the offseason so as to consistently remain in contention. Avoiding paying the tax this season means the Phillies would not be considered repeat offenders next season should their payroll exceed the $178 million mark for the 2013 season.

A last-place team having to pay the luxury tax could lead to some head scratching.

Both Hamels and the majority of fans want to see the All-Star remain in a Phillies uniform past this season. But if the team’s play doesn’t pick up in the second half, even with a roster at full strength, the Phils will have to make some deals in order to get back into contention past this season.

By trading Hamels, the Phillies would acquire at least one top-level prospect who would likely be close to playing in the major leagues, while also helping the team avoid paying an additional tax due to a large payroll.

And come the offseason, there would at least be some chance of signing the left-hander to resume his career in Philadelphia.

A last-place standing for a playoff-caliber team means changes must be made, and Hamels could become an innocent victim.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Cole Hamels Open to Re-Signing with Phillies Even If Traded

Cole Hamels recently told Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly that even if the Philadelphia Phillies trade him, he will give them every chance to sign him back in the offseason.

“I’ll always give them the first choice,” Hamels said. “If there are multiple teams I’m always going to put them at the top of my list.”

He cites the fact that he grew up watching Tony Gwynn play for the San Diego Padres his entire career, and that has always been appealing to him.

With this new piece of information, is a trade more likely to happen?

After all, maybe the Phillies could pull off something like they did with Cliff Lee. They would get prospects in the trade but then be able to bring back Hamels this winter.

There seems to be no downside to this deal assuming that Hamels is truly sincere about giving Philadelphia priority.

However, Hamels is an intelligent player and businessperson, and if he hits the open market, his value will surely skyrocket. If teams begin bidding against each other, the Phillies would most likely have to match the top offer to bring Hamels back.

Right now—at least, according to Salisbury’s impressions—the two sides agree that Hamels is worth about $24 million per year. The Phillies don’t have a problem with that, but they can’t agree to the length of the contract.

While Hamels will probably not get more than $24 million per season on the market, what if he did? If the Phillies truly want him long-term, which I think they should, they should get this deal done now. They shouldn’t trust the open market to bring down his price or demands whatsoever.

Many people criticize the Phillies for not thinking about the future and being in a “win now” mindset, but bringing back Hamels would be investing in one of the best pitchers in baseball through his prime. That seems to be an excellent move.

 

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Things the Team Needs to Do to Be Playoff Contenders

As the second half of the season begins, the Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in foreign territory. They are 14 games behind the Washington Nationals for the division crown and 10 games back of the Atlanta Braves and the Cincinnati Reds for the two Wild Card spots.

Basically, the Phils are aboard a sinking ship and if they don’t climb out soon, they will be out of the playoff picture, finishing a season that all will soon want to forget.

Even though the situation is grim, there is still hope for the Phillies. One of the biggest problems for the team this year is that they have not played up to the level that they should be. The players haven’t stepped up in ways that they have in the past.

Although this has been a source of concern it now represents a reason to hope. The Phillies have the talent to get it done, they just need to show up to play as soon as the second half of the season begins.

There is no question this is an uphill battle, but there is still a chance, albeit a slim one, that the Phillies get it done. Here are the ten things that the Phils must do at the start of the break in order to keep the possibility of making the playoffs alive.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Golden Age Ended Faster Than Anyone Hoped

The end of this dominant era of Phillies baseball got here much sooner than anyone thought possible.

In 2008, when this Phillies team was young, they had the best young slugging first baseman in baseball, the best second baseman in baseball, the best young left-handed starter in baseball and a closer who had just concluded a 47-for-47 season finishing off wins. 

In that moment, it was not “can you believe they won?”  It was “how many do you think they’ll get?”

2009 was as special as 2008 had been, right up to the point where the Big Engine That Could met the Bigger Engine That Did. It was not as though Phillies fans could complain, anyway.  You will never forget it if you were in the building to see Jimmy Rollins’ base-clearing triple in the bottom of the ninth off Jonathan Broxton that won Game 4 and essentially finished off that NLCS. 

And there was no shame in losing to a $200 million-plus baseball monolith, the New York Yankees, a team whose best player in the Series (Hideki Matsui) was a platoon designated-hitting luxury who would shame the Kardashians, right? 

Sure, maybe the Phillies traded away their best pitcher from that World Series (Cliff Lee) for a bunch of guys who would soon be selling insurance, but still—this was the Golden Age of Phillies baseball. 

The 2010 season was spectacular. A relative waltz to the postseason and, when they got there, uber-stud Roy Halladay tossed a no-hitter in the divisional series against the Cincinnati Reds. 

Everything was going great. Right up to the point when Halladay gave up two bombs to journeyman slob Cody Ross on his way to losing Game 1 of the NLCS at home to the San Francisco Giants. 

The Phillies lost that series in six games.

Okay, but upsets like Giants-over-Phillies in the 2010 NLCS are once in a lifetime, right?.  The season ticket invoices came out for 2011, and guess what? 

Phillies fans got their woobie Lee back. He never should have left. 

What a rotation: Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt. Phillies fans had never seen a 120-win team in person, but they were fairly confident that they were about to. 

They came close, too. Only an eight-game losing streak after the division and home field throughout the playoffs had been sealed up tight kept the 2011 Phillies from winning 110 games. All there really was to worry about was whether the Milwaukee Brewers could out-slug the Phillies in a seven-game series. 

You know, once they quickly dispatched with the wild-card St. Louis Cardinals.

Walking out of Citizens Bank Park after the artist formerly known as Chris Carpenter had completely stifled the Phillies in Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS—with the Cardinals dog-piling on each other as Ryan Howard lay clutching his heel in the fetal position on the ground—Phillies fans were overcome with the sensation of what closing time felt like in college. 

The night, like so many nights before it, had been imbued with rich possibility, and informed by so many of the potent nights that had come before. 

Then, in the span of but a few hours it had come crashing down on their heads, like the rejection of would-be partners who had found better offers or just spurned theirs on principle.  All that was left was the walk of shame back to the car, for the drive home with their tails tucked away and a winter of more questions than answers. Again.

And now this.

Here are some grisly numbers from the 2012 Phillies: 37-50, 17-27 at home, 14 games out of first place in the National League East, 10 games out of the second wild-card, six teams ahead of them for that second wild-card. 

Here are some grislier numbers: $95 million and four more seasons on Ryan Howard’s deal, $72 million and three more seasons on Cliff Lee’s deal and $35 million still coming to Chase Utley ($15 million) and Roy Halladay ($20 million) in 2013. 

Of course, they do not owe Cole Hamels any more money. That is only because, as you may have heard, his contract is up at the end of this season, and he is going to get paid.  Ironically, trading Hamels for at least one blue chip bat is probably the best move the team can make now.

Even if you may have seen this coming, you still have to be stunned by how fast it all ended.

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MLB Trade Scenarios: 25 Potential Deals the Phillies Will Consider in July

The month of July is significant around Major League Baseball for a couple of reasons: the All-Star Game and the July 31 trade deadline. As has become the norm, the Phillies will have a hand in both this season.

But it’ll be different than the last couple of seasons.

After Cole Hamels, Carlos Ruiz, and Jonathan Papelbon help the National League in attempt to secure home-field advantage in the World Series, they’ll return to the city of Philadelphia, a city that will undoubtedly be up to its eyeballs in baseball trade rumors.

You can follow all of the rumors and transactions here, but to sum things up in a quick sentence: leading up to July 31, the Phillies will trade off anyone and everyone that they can get value on for the future. That includes, but doesn’t end with, Hamels and Shane Victorino.

The following slideshow is aimed towards giving you an idea of the types of conversations the Phillies will be having with other teams throughout the month of July. We know that the Phillies will be targeting third basemen and outfielders in any trade, so most of the suggested deals that follow those broad guidelines.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Texas Rangers Favorites to Trade for Cole Hamels If Available

If the Philadelphia Phillies decide that they’re going to trade Cole Hamels, Buster Olney of ESPN reported that many baseball officials believe the Texas Rangers will be the favorite for his services.

What would this type of deal look like?

While the price tag will surely be high, you have to assume that third base prospect Mike Olt will be the centerpiece of the package coming to the Phillies.

MLB.com ranked Olt as the third-best prospect in the Texas system, 34th-best prospect overall in Major League Baseball and the fourth-best prospect at third base at the beginning of the season.

He has been living up to all that praise so far this year. In AA, he is hitting .294 with 22 home runs, 63 RBI and a very impressive .404 on-base percentage.

He seems to be developing into a very well-rounded hitter. As an example, he is hitting .293 against lefties and .295 against righties. His home run production has also been roughly similar with eight against left-handers and 14 against right-handers.

He started showing some of his power last season when he hit 14 home runs in the Carolina league, but given that he already surpassed that total in just the first half of this season, it seems as if he is still developing.

Physically, he seems to be filled out pretty well at 6’2″ and 210 pounds. Even though he is larger, his MLB.com prospect profile does report that he is a good defender at third base.

It is much harder to determine what the rest of the package might look like, but this is a great place to start if the Texas Rangers are trying to figure out how they can grab Cole Hamels if the Phillies make him available.

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

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Cliff Lee’s First Win Will Propel Him to Huge Second Half

Cliff Lee was my preseason pick to win the National League Cy Young award. At the time it was a good pick.  

Lee was 17-8 with a 2.40 ERA in his first full season in Philadelphia, and the expectation was for him to put up equal numbers in his second year in the red pinstripes. But in baseball, you must expect the unexpected.

It took Lee until July 4 to win his first ballgame. That was his 14th start of the year. Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis got a win before Lee.  

Lee heads into the All-Star break with a 1-5 record and an un-Lee-like 3.98 ERA.

But, there is hope for Lee in the second half. A lot of hope.

The Phillies offense averaged just over three runs per game in Lee’s first 13 starts before his win. This includes a game on April 18 when Lee pitched 10 shutout innings, throwing only 102 pitches, and got a no-decision.

Now, the Phillies lineup is starting to get healthy. Chase Utley made his season debut on June 27 and Ryan Howard just came back on July 6. If everyone can stay healthy, the Phillies have a lineup that will be able to put some runs on the board and allow Lee’s win total to increase.

Lee entered June with a 3.00 ERA. He was 0-2, but pitching well. At that point in the season, you could blame the offense for his lack of W’s.  

The same couldn’t be said for what happened next.

Lee’s four starts before his win were rough: he allowed 20 earned runs and 35 hits in 24.2 innings pitched. In those four starts, 55 fly balls were hit off of Lee against only 27 ground balls. To compare this to a start where Lee pitched well, on May 15, he allowed seven fly balls and 10 ground balls.

Any pitcher will tell you, if opposing batters are hitting the ball in the air to the outfield, eventually it’s going to hurt you.

But, in his win against the Mets, Lee looked like his old self, going eight innings, allowing only two earned runs and striking out nine batters. If this is any indication of what’s to come, Lee will have plenty of second-half wins.

In 2011, Lee’s second half was brilliant. He was 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA after going 9-6 with a 2.82 ERA in the first half.

If he could match last year’s first-half statistics in the second half of this season, Phillies fans will be more than pleased.

Lee is scheduled to pitch against the Rockies (twice), Dodgers, Brewers (twice), Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Reds and division opponents in the second half. These games are slightly less challenging than Boston, Baltimore, Toronto and Tampa Bay, all of whom Lee struggled against in the first half.  

Lee is too good to continue pitching like this. If I had to make a prediction, I’d say Lee wins eight games in the second half and finishes with a record of around 9-8 and brings his ERA down to around 3.40.  

Looking at these stats alone, they’re not very impressive. But, compared to his first half, Phillies fans would take it. 

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