Phillies Trade Rumors: Cole Hamels’ Extension Puts Cliff Lee on Hot Seat

In wake of Cole Hamels’ contract extension, Cliff Lee‘s days as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies could be numbered.

According to FoxSports.com‘s Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has a decision on his hands:

Rival team officials believe Amaro has little choice but to at least explore the market for Lee, who has three years and $87.5 million left on his contract after this season. Given the Phillies’ high payroll and poor performance this season, the opportunity to save money — and acquire a low-cost replacement of comparable ability — appears too enticing to pass up.

With a 45-54 record, Philadelphia is buried at the bottom of the National League East. The team hasn’t taken advantage of the second-highest payroll in the majors (via ESPN.com), and now it may be time to sell at the trade deadline.

Lee provides Philadelphia with excellent trade bait. He’s signed through 2015, is a three-time All-Star and hasn’t had an ERA over 4.00 since 2007.

However, Lee’s 2012 campaign has been sub-par by his standards. The 33-year-old is just 1-6 with a 3.95 ERA. If Philadelphia hasn’t been able to win when he’s on the mound, it may be time to see what the market has to offer.

According to Rosenthal and Morosi, the Texas Rangers could be contending for the hurler’s services:

Texas GM Jon Daniels is believed to prefer Lee to Hamels; after all, Daniels offered Lee well more than $100 million as a free agent two offseasons ago. The Rangers would be more likely to trade minor league third baseman Mike Olt for Lee, than a two-month rental such as Milwaukee’s Zack Greinke.

Shipping Lee back to Texas—where he spent part of the 2010 season—would likely ensure the Phillies some touted prospects in return. The Rangers are moving up, and could use all the viable arms they can get.

The long-term devotion to Cole Hamels may put Lee on the chopping block. This season, Hamels has posted a 11-4 record and 3.23 ERA—the best output of any Phillies starting pitcher. Five years younger than Lee, Hamels has never won more than 15 games in a season, but the Phillies have paid him like he’s a perrenial 20-game winner.

As for Lee, his fate will be decided by 4 p.m. ET on July 31.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

MLB Trade Deadline: What Does Winning Streak Mean for Philadelphia Phillies?

The Philadelphia Phillies are on a bit of a roll right now. Wednesday’s comeback victory over the Milwaukee Brewers was their fourth consecutive victory, and has given Philadelphia fans a little bit of hope. The team is 7-3 in their last 10 games, with some exciting come-from-behind wins along the way. 

But the team still sits nine games under .500 and 9.5 games out of the wild card, and their chances of making the playoffs this year are 0.3 percent, according to Baseball Prospectus. Don’t let the streak get your hopes up, because the playoffs are simply out of reach at this point.  

Ryan Howard’s return has been very positive for the Phillies. He has four home runs, nine RBI and six walks in 13 games. Beyond his play on the field, his presence alone has clearly had a motivational effect on the team.

On Tuesday, the Phillies announced that they had agreed to a six-year extension with pitcher Cole Hamels worth $144 million. With that contract finalized, the Phillies will end up paying Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley about $104 million next season. The chances that any of those five get traded are very minimal. 

Needless to say, the Phillies will most likely have to cut salary elsewhere. According to Ken Rosenthal, the Phillies are “eager” to move Hunter Pence and the $13 million to $14 million he is owed next year.

Pence and Shane Victorino are now the two most likely players to get moved with Hamels getting an extension. Lee is the most likely of the highest-paid five to be traded, but unless the Phillies are blown away with a deal, I doubt he leaves Philly.

But either Pence or Victorino will most likely be dealt. I believe that those two, along with Juan Pierre, Kyle Kendrick, Joe Blanton and Jimmy Rollins, should all be actively shopped by GM Ruben Amaro Jr.

Some people may balk at Rollins getting traded, but while he brings heart and effort to the team, he often forgets his bat. In his past three seasons, he has hit .250, .243 and .268. This season, he is hitting .254. He has only hit 33 home runs since 2010. He will be 34 in November, and his best seasons are far behind him.  

Apart from Hamels, the Phillies best players are 35 (Halladay), 33 (Rollins, Utley and Lee) and 32 (Howard). Combine that with only one under-25 player on the active roster who has big-time potential (Vance Worley), and the future doesn’t look too bright.

Add in the fact that the Phillies only have two prospects ranked in minorleagueball.com’s top 120, and it makes the future look even less bright. Pitchers Jesse Biddle and Trevor May were ranked 54th and 56th, respectively, meaning that the Phillies don’t have a single top-50 prospect either.

The Phillies didn’t have a first-round pick in June’s draft, and failed to sign one of their second-round picks, Alec Rash. The point is, while the MLB roster is getting older, there is not much help on the way.

Speaking of the MLB roster, Placido Polanco is only batting .255 and most likely will be playing somewhere else next season. The bullpen is currently in the hands of Antonio Bastardo, Michael Schwimer, Jacob Diekman and Joe Savery. John Mayberry Jr. has 12 more strikeouts than hits. Domonic Brown is nowhere to be found. Utley can’t be counted on to play more than half a season for the rest of his career. Upgrades and depth are needed all over the place.    

The farm system is in bad shape, the MLB roster isn’t looking much better, and dealing players like Pence, Victorino, Pierre, Kendrick, Blanton and Rollins could bring in a few prospects while dumping salary. The team’s window is closing, and will be hard to re-open in the future if deals are not made soon. 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies Trade Rumors: Pursuing the Padres’ Chase Headley?

News that the Philadelphia Phillies had extended homegrown ace Cole Hamels’ contract spread quickly around the baseball world. Six years and $144 million dollars was the deal the Phillies and Hamels agreed to.  Hamels will remain a Phillie through at least 2018, too.

Following the press conference, the Phillies played the final game of a three-game set against the Milwaukee Brewers, sending Vance Worley to the mound against Marco Estrada. Although the Phils quickly broke out to a 5-1 lead, the Brew Crew tied it up in the eighth inning on a two-run Ryan Braun home run. After going into extras and seeing the Brewers take a 6-5 lead courtesy of a Ty Wigginton error, the Phils came back in the bottom of the 10th and won 7-6 on a Jimmy Rollins walk-off single.

The win yesterday gave the Phils their first three-game series sweep of the season and their third win on a walk-off hit in four games. In addition, the Phillies have gone into extra innings in three of those four games, and are currently embarked on a four-game winning streak.

As a result of all of these events, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. still isn’t sure whether to buy or sell at this year’s trade deadline. Just five days away, the fact that Amaro believes that the Phillies can still win creates an interesting discussion, but who the Phillies would acquire should they choose to buy is an even bigger question mark. Don’t believe me? Bob Nightengale of USA Today opined this yesterday morning:

 

The way the #Phillies have played of late, Amaro certainly waiting to see whether they are buyers or sellers at the deadline.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) July 25, 2012

 

Given their current position in the standings—the 45-54 Phillies still sit in last place in the NL East, 14 games back of the Washington Nationals and 9.5 games out of the Wild Card—one would assume that the Phillies wouldn’t consider anything but selling.

But, if the Phillies do choose to buy, who should they pursue?

An intriguing option could be third baseman Chase Headley of the San Diego Padres. The Friars, who sit in fourth in the NL West at 42-58 and are also 14 games out of first in their division, are expected to field offers for Headley, who, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, is “all but sure to be dealt.”

It’s not like this is total speculation. Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reported back on June 29 that the Phillies had asked the Padres about Headley. Granted, the Phillies were 36-43 and only 10 games out of first place compared to 14 now, but their need for a replacement for Placido Polanco, whose mutual option is likely to be declined by the Phillies after the season, exists whether the Phillies go to the playoffs or go home after the regular season.

Headley, only 28 years old, would be a great replacement for Polanco. He’s durable, having played in 98 games this season, which leads all third basemen. Polanco, on the other hand, is tied for last in that category with Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals, having played in only 82 contests.

Also, Headley’s third among hot corner players with a 3.6 WAR (per FanGraphs) and his UZR/150 is 10.2, fourth among third basemen and ahead of Polanco, who won a Gold Glove at the position last season.

 

Headley’s no slugger, hitting .267 with a .787 OPS. However, Headley’s had the misfortune of playing his entire career at Petco Park, which is known around the league as one of, if not the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the majors. Yet despite this, Headley still has 12 home runs on the season, though only three of them have come at home.

The biggest perk in acquiring Headley, though, is assurance. Headley’s a Super Two player, meaning that he will receive a fourth year of arbitration eligibility as opposed to the standard three. And, Headley’s only up for his third bout of arbitration this coming offseason, meaning that if the Phillies acquired him, he’d be under team control through the 2014 season.

That means two and a half years of Headley until free agency. That’s fantastic.

But who would the Phillies give up in a Headley trade? Thanks in part to their trade with the Cincinnati Reds in the offseason, the Padres have a fairly deep farm system and are poised to have a good team in four or five years.

Before the Latos trade that saw the Padres nab Edinson Volquez and three of the Reds’ top 10 prospects, including two of their top four, Baseball America already had the Padres ranked with the eighth-best system in the majors. It undoubtedly only increased after the trade.

The Phillies, on the other hand, were ranked 27th. That could make a deal difficult to strike between the two clubs. Since the Padres are an extremely low revenue team, they’ll likely want only prospects, and the Phillies don’t have many to spare. However, there are a few spots where the Padres could use some depth.

 

One is first base. Yes, they have Yonder Alonso entrenched at first base for the long haul, but after dealing Anthony Rizzo to the Chicago Cubs and promoting Alonso as a major leaguer, the Padres have absolutely no prospects in their preseason top 30 prospects (according to Baseball America) who play first base.

Although arguably not a “prospect” anymore, first baseman Darin Ruf could work for the Padres. He’s made strides this year and could very well be one of the Phillies’ top offensive players in their minor league system this season. He’s also got a lifetime average of over .300 throughout his career in the minors. Pretty impressive.

Another option could be right-handed starter Jonathan Pettibone, ranked fourth-best prospect by Baseball America in the Phillies’ system. Promoted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley after his start yesterday for the Reading Phillies, Pettibone has put together a solid season, going 9-7 with a 3.30 ERA. The Padres could also consider the Phillies’ Triple-A ace this year, Tyler Cloyd, who has a 9-1 record and 2.11 ERA at Lehigh Valley this year.

It may be a stretch to call the 25-year-old Cloyd a prospect anymore, though he is closer to being major-league ready than Pettibone.  But, if the Padres decide they’d prefer to go the prospect route, Pettibone would be a better fit.

That’s something worth thinking about, too—despite having the 13th-best team ERA in the majors at 3.82, the Padres are sending out major league castoffs Jason Marquis, Kip Wells, and occasionally Ross Ohlendorf to the mound on a regular basis. Even though Marquis has won three straight starts, that’s a pretty pathetic rotation, and Cloyd could bolster it sooner than Pettibone.

 

It’s up to both the Padres and the Phillies if they want to strike a deal. Headley’s a perfect fit in Philly, But given that he’s a hot commodity, the chances of the still-possibly selling Phillies picking him up are slim.

And, while a Ruf and Pettibone/Cloyd trade for Headley could work out for both sides, maybe the Padres get better offers out there and don’t take the deal. Or, the Phillies could offer different pieces, too, which is an even likelier possibility.

Headley can help the Phillies retool, and Ruf and Pettibone or Cloyd could help the Padres do the same. All that remains to be seen is whether both sides have enough interest in getting a deal done with each other. There’s no way to know that until it happens, if it does at all. 

Maybe the Padres want a third prospect in a deal, and that’s not something that should be unexpected.

Maybe the Phillies decide to look elsewhere and trade Cliff Lee to Texas for a package headlined by third base prospect Mike Olt.

Maybe a deal doesn’t go through. But if it does, it’ll be a great trade for both teams.

Please also check out:

–Will Phils Deal Lee Back to Rangers in Blockbuster?

–Fire-Sale Trades Phils Could Make at the Deadline

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Why Addition by Subtraction Could Work

The Philadelphia Phillies are about to be in an unfamiliar spot.

Well, besides their last-place standing in the National League East.

Although they have signed Cole Hamels to a new six-year contract extension, the Phillies are not likely to acquire a big-name player before the trade deadline in preparation for a postseason run, as they have in recent seasons.

Instead, the Phillies could be on the other end of those deadline deals by trading away players rather than acquiring them. However, they can still make a few trades that allow them to make a run at the postseason. 

They wouldn’t be the first team to bounce back from a double-digit deficit in the standings to make the playoffs. 

But what’s more important are the players—and contracts—that the Phillies trade in the process. 

Despite potentially trading their center fielder, right fielder, a starting pitcher, third baseman and an additional player or two, the Phillies could actually put themselves in a better position for future seasons.

Addition by subtraction could work for the Phillies.

For one, this season’s All-Star Futures Game featured more former Phillies minor league players than it did current minor league players.

Recent trades have left the Phillies without a great deal of soon-to-be-ready minor league prospects.  However, this season’s trade deadline could provide the opportunity to make trades for minor league talent rather than trading it away.

Trades involving players such as Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton, Ty Wigginton, Juan Pierre, Placido Polanco and Hunter Pence could add multiple prospects to the Phillies’ minor league system. 

Of course, the talent level of the prospects that the Phillies would get in return varies from player to player.

Trading a combination of any of these players would also give the Phillies more financial flexibility with an ever-increasing payroll.

With Hamels now in the fold, the Phillies are set to pay nine players over $130 million next season, which leaves less than $50 million to complete the rest of the 25-man roster before the team would be hit with the luxury tax next season.

The team’s current payroll is likely already over the luxury tax threshold. 

Subtracting two of the three contracts of Victorino, Blanton and Polanco, as a recent article by Matt Gelb on philly.com explained, could save the Phillies approximately $6 million. 

That amount could push the Phillies payroll below the luxury tax threshold, which means the team would avoid paying the 20 percent tax this season and not be at risk for paying the 30 percent tax next season.

As Gelb’s article also explains, a team who exceeds the threshold for the first time next season would only have to pay a 17.5 percent tax.  If a team can get below the threshold for the following season, they will be treated as first-time offenders the next time they exceed the threshold.

Therefore, by subtracting a few contracts this season, the Phillies will set themselves up to possibly allow their payroll to exceed $178 million next season while paying a lesser tax. 

By 2014, the luxury tax threshold increases to $189 million.  This means that the Phillies could pay the tax next season, but if their payroll is less than $189 million the following the season, they would not have to pay the tax for a second year in a row.

If the Phillies can get their payroll below $178 million this season, they might be more willing to go over that mark next season. 

Potential free agents such as Michael Bourn, Melky Cabrera, Grant Balfour and Brandon Lyon could then become options.

Subtracting a few contracts from the team’s payroll this season will allow the Phillies to add more talent for next season with more room for spending.

And soon after the luxury tax threshold increases to $189 million in 2014, the Phillies should be preparing to sign a new television contract, according to another article by Matt Gelb that appeared on philly.com prior to the start of the season. 

The deal will at least allow the Phillies to spend as much as the new luxury tax threshold after 2015 if they so choose.

But what about for next season?

If the Phillies are able to move certain contracts this season, they will have more money to spend in the offseason to fill a number of needs. 

Third base, the outfield and the bullpen are all areas that could need either replacements or improvements.  Carlos Ruiz and Pence are also set to receive pay increases on a roster that already has over $100 million going to just nine players.

With a lack of major league-ready prospects at positions of need—and hardly any room to work with if the team wants to avoid the luxury tax—the Phillies’ best chances of adding for the future must come by subtracting from the current roster.

The past few seasons have seen the Phillies use an addition by subtraction method at the deadline, with big-game acquisitions being added and prospects being subtracted from the minor league system. 

However, this season could be a good time for the team to reverse this method in their mid-season dealings.

If the Phillies find the right deals, addition by subtraction just might work.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies Make the Right Move with Cole Hamels

3:00 a.m. means many things to different people.

As a kid, 3:00 a.m. was a finish line, a goal to reach at sleepovers after enough junk food and R rated movies my friends and I weren’t supposed to be watching.

When I saw 3:00 a.m. in college it meant that the bars were closed, it was probably time to call it a night and the odds of me staying awake during my 8:30 class were pretty slim.

And now that I am on the back-end of my twenties with a full-time job, 3:00 a.m. means a groan, a trip to the kitchen for a glass of water and some quick subtraction to figure out how long I have before the alarm goes off.

That’s exactly that happened on Wednesday morning, and I was in the midst of doing that alarm clock math when as a force of habit I took a look at my Twitter feed.

Suddenly I was wide awake.

“BREAKING: #Phillies, Hamels close on six-year extension for more than $137.5M” came from Ken Rosenthal.

In one tweet, and one decision by the Phillies, Cole Hamels was just awarded the second-biggest contract ever handed out to a pitcher, and virtually guarantees that he will retire wearing red pinstripes.

Once the laughing stock of baseball, the “Phightins’ have suddenly become the Yankees of the National League.  Making it rain like Pac-Man Jones in his prime, the Phillies are now the first team in history to have three players on the roster making more than $20 million.

If I’m a fan of the Pirates, Rockies or Brewers, I hate it. But as a Phillies fan, I love it. And it has nothing to do with the money.

In this case, and considering I’m not footing bill, the money doesn’t matter. This contract is about a team, not just in name but in experience. And it’s about that team not conceding defeat even if they need a historic run to extend their postseason streak six years.

Call me a sap, but that matters.

When Hamels takes the mound for the next six seasons, I will obviously be rooting for him to win. But I will also be remembering the way he pitched in September of ’07, or how he walked on water en route to winning both the NLCS and World Series MVPs in 2008.

I’ll also remember the way he coasted through the 2009 season, had enough media appearances to make a Kardashian blush and melted down in the World Series during the biggest game of the season.

But I’ll also remember the way he matured in 2010, and how he has become undoubtedly one of the best pitchers in baseball. So his contract is about more than just himself.

When a Phillies fan talks about the best players in team history, every memorable player can be summed up in one word or a nickname.

Michael Jack. Lefty. Whitey, Robin. Harry the K.  Dutch. The Dude. Any Phillies fan keeps these players close to their heart, and now Hollywood joins the list.

His contract will get him paid, obviously, but despite putting himself in the list above, it also ties him in with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and the other aces. (Cliff Lee and Doc Halladay) as the key figures in one of the greatest runs in National League history.

And that matters. It matters because Philly is maybe the most provincial city in the country. Ask Moses, Dr. J., Iverson, Cunningham, TO or McNabb. A  player that spends his career in the city becomes immortal.

So, at 3:00 a.m. I wasn’t thinking about Cole Hamels’ contract, his age or his place in history.

I was thinking about this team, his team.

In six years, maybe I will be writing about the Phillies and their albatross of a contract owed to our ace, named Cole Hamels.

And if I am, I won’t be very happy about it, but it will be nice to know that I spent the last decade rooting for a team, not a jersey.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Phillies Trade Rumors: Buy? Sell? Philadelphia Looks Confused as Deadline Looms

In the days leading up to the MLB trade deadline, the Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in an unfamiliar position.

Perhaps.

With a 45-54 record, after Wednesday’s contest with the Brewers ended with a dramatic extra-innings win, the Phillies are in last place in the National League East.

Granted, this team played the majority of the first half of 2012 without many of their main pieces. Ryan Howard is finally healthy following the Achilles injury he suffered in his last at bat of 2011, and Chase Utley appears to be back on track as well after numerous knee problems.

The powerful bats of Howard and Utley, however, are greatly overshadowed by the unfathomable seasons that Cliff Lee and Shane Victorino are having.

Lee, who won 29 games over the previous two seasons, has one victory in 2012. The former Cy Young Award winner, now 33, has already allowed 15 home runs in his first 17 starts this year. As a result, he is on pace to nearly match his career high in that category.

Victorino, a career .276 hitter, has been well under that mark in 2012. He is an impending free agent, and the Phillies need to offer him a contract extension or trade him before the deadline. If the “Flyin’ Hawaiian” hits the open market this offseason, chances are that a plethora of teams will be very interested in adding the switch-hitting, speedy outfielder. 

So, are the Phillies in full-blown sell mode while being in last place in the East?

One would think so. Except for the Phillies front office it appears; they signed Cole Hamels to a six-year contract extension this week.

With Hamels, Lee and Roy Halladay anchoring the rotation, and the returning power that both Howard and Utley bring back to the lineup, (which up until now had been almost magically carried by Carlos Ruiz), on paper the Phillies ought to be contenders.

With all of these pieces finally falling into place in late July however, one must wonder if it’s too little, too late for the Fightin’ Phils to claw their way all the way back into the pennant race.

What do you think? Should the Phillies bite the bullet and sell? Trade Victorino? Trade Hunter Pence or Jimmy Rollins with hopes of securing some great young talent?

With all of these questions, the larger one looms if the Phillies are not sellers—Can the Phillies build around Cole Hamels while stripping down the team around him? It should be quite the intriguing week for the Phillies phanatics nationwide. 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Walk-off Heroics Are Coming at Just the Right Time

They say lightning doesn’t strike the same place twice, and in the case of the Philadelphia Phillies, who are coming off of three straight comeback wins including two thrilling walk-offs, that saying is definitely correct.

The team, which for the better part of the season has been a disappointment and injury-riddled group, has proven lately that lightning doesn’t strike the same place just twice—it does it three times.

Not to completely kill this lightning metaphor, but ever since the All-Star Game ended, with the exception of two games in the San Francisco Giants series, the Phillies really have caught lightning in a bottle, and they most definitely are not ready to let it go.

Since the start of the second half of the season, the Phillies are 8-4, including two season-high four-game winning streaks. They are averaging about 4.6 runs a game during this time and have not yet played a game where they scored less than two.

For a team that had yet to win a game when trailing after eight, the Phillies have now done that twice as they came back from a four-run deficit in the ninth and a six-run deficit in the eighth of the first two games of the Milwaukee Brewers series. The third game of this series also marked the second time in three games that the Phils won on their final at-bat.

There is no doubt that the Phillies’ recent success can be attributed to their players stepping up. Eric Kratz, the backup catcher for the Phillies, was huge in each game of the series, scoring the game-winning run in Game 1, hitting a two-run home run that led the eighth-inning comeback in Game 2 and going 3-3 with the game-tying RBI in Game 3.

Jimmy Rollins also had a good series, topping it off with the game-winning RBI to help the Phillies do something they had yet to do this season—sweep a series. 

On top of this, the heart of the order for the Phillies is starting to heat up, and it couldn’t be happening at a more vital time. Carlos Ruiz has not had a weak moment this season, but recently Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are starting to get back into their normal groove.

Utley especially, who had been struggling with the exception of a few home runs, is really starting to put better swings on the ball. He and Howard had a home run in the first game of the series, the fourth for Utley this season. He also has 13 RBI, most of them coming after the break.

Utley is taking pitches and has worked out eight walks recently as well. He is getting on base in whatever way he can and is starting to really hit the ball like the old Chase Utley. Perhaps the most promising stat about Utley, however, is that he has played in six consecutive games, and it doesn’t seem like he will be missing a significant amount of games for the rest of the season.

Howard is also starting to get hot. He too has four home runs, three of which have come in the last seven days. His average is starting to climb, and so are his production numbers, as the guys in front of him are getting on base so that he can actually do his job of driving them in.

Taking the good with the bad, the one thing that has gone wrong since the break is the starting pitching staff. Luckily for them, however, the bullpen and offense have really carried the team and helped to mask some of the starters’ not-so-perfect outings. For the majority of the season, it has been this same bullpen and offense that have let down the pitchers, but now they are the ones picking them up.

The way this team is playing, they have their confidence back, they have their fight back. They are finding ways to win ballgames and are outlasting their opponents, showing the mark of a playoff team, something the Phils may manage to become if they keep playing like this.

Once seeming like an unlikely possibility, the Phillies are making waves in the Wild Card race. They are only 9.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves, a team against which they have a very pivotal three-game series in just a few days.

The series against the Braves and subsequent one against the Nationals will determine the mettle of this team. Walk-offs are nice, and in addition to the heroics giving fans and players alike reasons to be pumped and excited, they have also put the team in the mentality that no matter how much they are down, there is no game this squad can’t win.

The problem, however, is that against the Braves, Nationals and other top NL opponents, the pitching is going to be better. The closers they face are going to be better then KRod, who in an off-year has only converted three saves in nine opportunities. They aren’t always going to be able to get those comeback wins.

Still, the Phillies are making things possible again. They are making us believers that maybe—just maybe—they can make a miracle happen. The core of the team is back, healthy and starting to produce, the starting staff is set for the rest of the season, the bullpen, although still a little shaky, is performing better now that Kyle Kendrick is back in the relief role and, most importantly, we can all breathe a sigh of relief as trade rumors surrounding Cole Hamels are officially dead and buried.

This team is playing like they did in 2008, and it is a good thing they are. Because it is exactly that kind of play that it is going to take going forward for the Phillies to make the playoffs and continue to have us on the edge of our seats.

It is that team that made us believers in a World Series Championship, and it is this team in 2012, that is doing its best in the second half of the season to keep that belief and that dream alive.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Analyzing Phillies’ Payroll and Who Needs to Go to Fit Cole Hamels’ Huge Deal

The Philadelphia Phillies had every excuse to go into a fire-sale mode at the trade deadline. If they had, the first player to go would have been star lefty Cole Hamels, who was a free-agent-to-be.

Instead, the Phillies decided to keep Hamels around. 

For another six years. Possibly seven.

As reported by Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Phillies have locked Hamels up to a six-year extension worth $144 million. His new deal also includes a vesting option for a seventh year that could make his deal worth over $160 million.

This is one of the largest contracts in the history of baseball and the second-largest contract ever given to a pitcher behind New York Yankees ace CC Sabathia. It is certainly the largest contract ever given out by the Phillies.

And this, naturally, makes things complicated.

Even before the Phillies locked Hamels up, there was some chatter about what they were going to have to do with their payroll in order to accommodate a new deal for Hamels. If they did manage to extend him, the thinking was that the Phillies were going to have to make a move to shed payroll.

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr., told SiriusXM radio’s Jim Bowden that he doesn’t think this is the case:

Ruben Amaro “we have no financial constraints” “if we can move a player to make our team better we will” sirius 209 XM 89

— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) July 25, 2012

Tricky. He doesn’t think the team has gotten itself into a mess financially, but he also indicated that the team is willing to trade players. Kinda leaves things open to interpretation.

We can start by interpreting what kind of financial obligations the organization is going to have on its hands in 2013. This table, which uses information from Baseball-Reference.com, should help:

Player	2013 Salary	Signed Through
Cliff Lee	$25M	2015, with vesting option for 2016
Cole Hamels	$24M*	2018, with vesting option for 2019
Ryan Howard	$20M	2016, with team option for 2017
Roy Halladay	$20M	2013, with vesting option for 2014
Chase Utley	$15M	2013
Jonathan Papelbon	$13M	2015, with vesting option for 2016
Jimmy Rollins	$11M	2014, with vesting option for 2015

*This is assuming that Hamels’ deal is structured similarly to Lee’s, a notion proposed by Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

So in 2013, the Phillies are on the books to pay a grand total of $128 million to just seven different players. 

Not included in this discussion is the team’s $5.5 million mutual option for Placido Polanco or the club’s $5 million team option for Carlos Ruiz. In addition, Hunter Pence is headed for arbitration, and he could earn a payday of around $15 million.

If the Phillies keep the three of them around, they’ll be dishing out over $150 million to just 10 different players.

This is significant because of where the luxury tax threshold is going to be at in 2013. Per MLB.com, the new collective bargaining agreement that was signed in November raised the luxury tax cutoff to $189 million in 2013, 2014 and 2016.

No team wants to have to pay the luxury tax. Even the New York Yankees are sick of having to do so. The Phillies don’t want to put themselves in a position where they have to pay it, much less in a position where they have to keep paying it year after year. The price goes up for repeat offenders.

If the Phillies commit $150 million to 10 different players in 2013, they’re going to have very little financial wiggle room when they sit down to fill out the rest of their roster. Their payroll is at right around $175 million this year. There’s a chance it could be closer to $200 million in 2013.

Unless, of course, the Phillies do something about it. And whether Amaro wants to admit it or not, that means jettisoning payroll via trades.

One of the team’s most expensive players is going to have to go. The problematic part for the Phillies is that they don’t have a ton of options in that regard.

Hamels obviously isn’t going anywhere. Trading Halladay is out of the question, and it would be tricky anyway seeing as how his value is hurt by the injury he suffered this year and the short amount of time remaining on his contract. Nobody’s trading for Utley or Howard given their recent health woes. The Phillies are not going to get good value for Papelbon.

This leaves the Phillies with three dealable assets among their most expensive players: Lee, Rollins and Pence.

It just so happens that there are plenty of rumors surrounding these three players.

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com recently reported that the Phillies are “eager” to move Pence, in large part because they realize he’s going to make well over $10 million in arbitration this winter. ESPN’s Jayson Stark, however, has reported that the Phillies aren’t going to just give Pence away to save money. They want “young, big league-ready” players for him, and they have very specific demands about what kind of youngsters it would take to get Pence.

That’s a lot to task for a guy who is only under club control for one more season. Pence has value out on the trade market, but not as much as the Phillies apparently think he does. They’d have to settle for less than what they want if they decide to trade Pence.

Rollins, meanwhile, has even less value out on the trade market.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has reported that the Los Angeles Dodgers were interested, but they can probably be checked off the list now that they’ve acquired Hanley Ramirez. That’s a blow for the Phillies because the Dodgers could have picked up the rest of Rollins’ contract, as they did with Ramirez.

If the Phillies move Rollins, they’ll probably have to eat the bulk of his contract. 

For example, they’d have to do that if they were to trade him to the Oakland A’s, who Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com has reported have considered Rollins.

Eating money would kinda defeat the purpose. The Phillies need to clear money, not pay it.

So this leaves Lee, and you probably know where the discussion is going from here.

Stark noted in his report that the Phillies have talked about trading Lee, and they haven’t even bothered to discourage other teams from checking in on him. 

And this makes perfect sense. The perception is that Lee has pitched poorly this season, but he hasn’t pitched as poorly as Phillies fans think he has. His 3.95 ERA is still above average, and Lee’s 3.40 FIP (per FanGraphs) suggests that he’s been a victim of bad luck. So does his .319 BABIP.

In other words, Lee is still a good pitcher. The fact that he’s under contract through 2015 with a vesting option for 2016 only bolsters his value. Whoever trades for him won’t be getting a rental. They’ll be getting an ace who will be around for at least another three years. 

The list of teams that can afford to take on Lee is small, but one team that must be counted as a legit possibility, according to Ken Rosenthal and many others, is the Texas Rangers. They have the prospects to acquire Lee and the funds to afford him. They can always make it easy on themselves by choosing not to re-sign Josh Hamilton.

The beauty of trading Lee is that the Phillies will still be able to clear a significant amount of payroll even if they’re forced to eat some of Lee’s contract. They’d still be limited to a select number of trade partners even if they do eat some of Lee’s contract, but trading him is by no means impossible because of how desirable Lee is. He’s nowhere near being in the same boat as immovable players like Alfonso Soriano and Barry Zito.

Aside from them not telling teams to buzz off when they call about Lee, there’s been little indication that the Phillies are actually interested in trading Lee. They seem more interested in moving Pence and/or Rollins, not to mention free-agent-to-be Shane Victorino.

But remember, it hasn’t even been 24 hours since Hamels agreed to his extension. The Phillies haven’t had much time to solidify their plans regarding the 2013 season. And though they’re in no hurry to trade Lee, Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com have heard that rival teams think it’s just a matter of time before the Phillies come to grips with the reality of the situation.

Give them some time. All we know for now is that they’re far from finished making moves.

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Phillies Trade Rumors: Philly Shouldn’t Give Up on Hunter Pence Just Yet

Unless the Philadelphia Phillies have several money trees at their disposal, the team is going to have to do some financial restructuring at some point following the six-year, $144 million extension Cole Hamels just signed with the team.

Next year, the team will owe nearly $104 million alone to Hamels, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. Somewhere on the roster, it will need to trim some dollars.

And before the trade deadline, the Phillies may look to do so by trading Hunter Pence, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports:

The Phillies continue to signal to clubs that they are eager to move right fielder Hunter Pence, who could earn $13 million to $14 million next season in his final year of arbitration.

Pence, 29, is batting .268 with a .789 OPS, 17 homers and 57 RBI. His value could be enhanced by the signings of the San Diego Padres’ Carlos Quentin and Toronto Blue Jays’ Edwin Encarnacion and their respective removals from the trade market. But few teams are willing to assume high salaries and part with significant prospects.

Financially, moving Pence makes sense. But that’s the only reason trading him away should even be considered.

For one, there is no way the team will get anywhere close to the price it paid to get him just a year ago, when it traded four prospects—including first baseman Jonathan Singleton and pitcher Jarred Cosart, two of the team’s top prospects at the time—to the Houston Astros for Pence.

The Phillies might get half of the value back that it cost them to acquire Pence in the first place. That won’t sit well with savvy fans.

But the Phillies aren’t exactly baseball’s most daunting offensive team, either, nor its youngest. While many of the team’s offensive woes can be traced to time missed by Howard and Utley, this team is no longer led by the explosive offense that led it to a 2008 world championship and 2009 World Series appearance.

Pence leads the team in home runs, RBI and hits, and, at age 29, is one of the few regulars younger than 30. His absence would have short- and long-term implications.

Sure, the Phillies—currently 14 games out of first in the NL East and 9.5 games back for the last Wild Card spot—probably won’t make the postseason this year. But with a clean bill of health, the squad should once again be considered a favorite in the National League next year.

With Pence, that is. Without him, I don’t like the look of this lineup.

I understand there are financial situations to consider. But the window for the Phillies to win another World Series ring has become very slim and trading away Pence might be just enough to shut it.

So spend the money, Philadelphia. Another ring will make you forget about that bank statement.

 

Hit me up on Twitter—my tweets bring it home like Big Easy.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Cliff Lee Trade Rumors: Will Phillies Deal Him Back to Rangers in Blockbuster?

Big news came out this morning on the Philadelphia Phillies front, as the team’s young, homegrown ace Cole Hamels has reportedly agreed to a six-year, $144 million contract extension with the team.

Hamels, 28, who would have been the top left-handed starting pitcher on the market this coming offseason and arguably the top overall free agent, has instead chosen to bypass free agency in favor of playing for the only team he’s ever donned a uniform for in the Phillies.

Upon signing Hamels, the Phillies now have “achieved” a first in baseball by having three starting pitchers in their rotation earning an average annual value of at least $20 million. And along with teammates Ryan Howard and Jonathan Papelbon, the Phillies have tied up over $100 million to just five players next season.

Before this year, the Phillies had always feared surpassing the $178 million luxury tax. And they very well may still be wary of it. But with a new TV deal on the horizon in 2015, the Phillies should be more than able to afford all of their players, and possibly then some.

But what if the Phillies still have reservations of going over the luxury tax? Under the new CBA, first-time offenders only have to pay a 17.5 percent tax compared to 20 percent in previous years, but regardless that much on the dollar for millions over $178 million isn’t necessarily any small sum of money.

The only way the Phillies may be able to shed some payroll is to move some of their other pieces. While they’ve won the battle with Cole Hamels, they may not be able to retain other fan favorites such as Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. But could the Phillies make another player, perhaps a starting pitcher, available in a trade?

Before he was extended, Hamels’ biggest suitor on the trade market was the Texas Rangers. The Rangers, who have had rotation woes this season and also have a deep farm system, were expected to make a push to acquire Hamels if an extension could not be reached. Now that a lost cause, there’s a possibility that the two teams could still match up on another player. Per Buster Olney of ESPN:

With Cole Hamels off the board, TEX effort to add an elite starter down to this: Josh Johnson pursuit; ask on Cliff Lee; maybe Greinke.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 25, 2012

While the Rangers could go after Zack Greinke, now the top starting pitcher on the free agent market this upcoming offseason, he’s had social anxiety issues in the past and could have a problem pitching in a somewhat large market in Arlington. The Rangers could also pursue Josh Johnson of the Marlins, but since his shoulder injury last year he just hasn’t been as effective, save for his most recent start in which he went six innings, allowing one hit and striking out nine before being removed for a blister on his finger.

It had come up that this past weekend’s start against the San Francisco Giants could have been Hamels’ last at Citizens Bank Park, and that Joe Blanton’s start against the Giants could have been his last at home as well. But could last night have been Cliff Lee’s last start as a Phillie at Citizens Bank Park?

Lee, who was pursued by the Rangers as the top free agent starting pitcher after 2010, was believed to have been deciding between the Rangers and the New York Yankees. However, at the eleventh hour, the Phillies swooped in and signed him to a five-year, $120 million contract. The rest is history.

But with the Phillies’ bloated payroll in light of the Hamels extension, would the team consider trading its ace who loved the city so much in his 2009 stint with them that he was willing to forego extra money to return? For that move and that move alone, Lee is a fan favorite, although in his start last night against the Brewers (and Zack Greinke), he was booed coming off the mound after allowing six runs on 12 hits.

With his disastrous 1-6 record and near-4.00 ERA, maybe it’s best for everyone that Lee is dealt. The Rangers have reportedly had interest in him since the Phillies signed him two years ago, and it’s also been reported that his 21 team no-trade list does not include the Rangers.

If Cliff Lee is to be traded, the Phillies would likely demand a prospect package headlined by third base prospect Mike Olt, center fielder Leonys Martin and potentially left-handed pitcher Martin Perez. The Rangers would almost certainly want the Phillies to send over salary relief for Lee’s contract in any deal, even though they were willing to pony up more money than what the Phillies paid him two years ago. That’s just the nature of the trade market.

There’s no certainty that Lee’s even on the block and the Phillies have told other teams that they want to keep their trio of Halladay, Lee and Hamels together. But with Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr., you never know what’s going to happen before the July 31st trade deadline. A Cliff Lee trade to the Rangers could be the biggest surprise of them all.

Also check out: 10 Fire-Sale Trades the Philadelphia Phillies Could Make at the Deadline

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

« Previous Page — Next Page »