25 Players the Philadelphia Phillies Wish They Never Traded

They say hindsight is 20/20.

More often than not, that’s more fact than cliche when it comes to the sport of baseball. Transactions, especially trades, are a gamble. One player can perform better in a certain market while the other could fall flat on his face.

One of the biggest grey areas in the sport is also one of the biggest debates: prospects. Do you trade unproven players for established, MLB-proven guys? Do you keep your top prospects and hope to develop a contender through your own system?

That debate will never end.

However, it would be nearly impossible to operate as a franchise without having to make those tough decisions, and that’s true for the Philadelphia Phillies, especially over the last couple of seasons, but in the past as well.

There are going to be prospects, and even MLB players, that teams don’t want to move but have to. There are going to be players that they do want to move and later regret. It’s just part of the game.

Here are 25 players that the Phillies once traded but, in hindsight, never should have moved.

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Why Philadelphia Phillies Would Be Wise to Hold on to Cliff Lee

Wouldn’t this be a familiar situation?  The Philadelphia Phillies sign one pitcher to a long-term contract extension and quickly trade another member of their starting rotation?

Well, at least one team could have interest in seeing that happen.

The Philadelphia Phillies would take the top starting pitcher off the market if they were to sign Cole Hamels to a long-term contract extension prior to the trade deadline.

But that doesn’t mean the interest in their starting rotation would lessen.

According to Danny Knobler on CBSSports.com, the Texas Rangers could turn their attention to Cliff Lee if Hamels were to be taken off the block.

Knobler mentions that it’s a long-shot, but a recent tweet by Jim Salisbury also suggests that the Rangers could have interest in Lee.

Lee’s soon-to-be yearly salary of $25 million is both a reason why the Phillies could explore trade options if they sign Hamels to an extension, and a reason why other teams might shy away. However, this is the same pitcher whose 17-8 record and 2.40 ERA led to his finishing third in National League Cy Young award voting last season.

Yes, signing Hamels long-term could make trading Lee a good idea, eventually.  But trading him for the sake of shedding payroll, especially when he is currently 1-6, would not be a good idea this season.

Here are five reasons why the Phillies would be wise to hold on to Lee at the trade deadline.

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Ryan Howard or Alex Rodriguez: Which Is MLB’s Worst Contract?

You cannot decide which of these contracts is a more abject disaster without knowing the numbers.  (All data for this article was taken from www.baseball-reference.com.)

Ryan Howard’s contract with the Philadelphia Phillies runs through 2016.  He will make $20 million in 2013, then $25M per year for the 2014-2016 seasons.  At that point, he will have made $95M for those four seasons, and the Phillies will then have the choice of paying him $23M more for 2017 or (more likely it seems) buying that year out for another $10M.  So Howard is guaranteed $105M through 2016.

Alex Rodriguez‘s contract with the New York Yankees runs through 2017.  His salaries for the next five seasons: $28M, $25M, $21M, $20M, $20M.  He will also receive a $1M bonus in 2013 and a $3M bonus in 2014.  By the end of the 2017 season, Rodriguez will have made $118M for those five seasons and the contract will be over. 

There is a kicker: Rodriguez will receive $6M for each of the following home runs he hits, if he ever does: #660 (ties Willie Mays), #714 (ties Babe Ruth), #755 (ties Hank Aaron) and #s 762 and 763 (ties and breaks Barry Bonds’s record).

Rodriguez has 643 home runs now, so the Mays mark is definitely within reach.  Ruth’s total is also in play, even if his skills continue to erode. Rodriguez has five-and-a-half seasons from now to hit 71 more home runs.  That’s less than 14 per year.  That’s doable. 

As such, Rodriguez is likely into the Yankees for $130M by the time his deal expires.

Armed with the figures, you can now assess each of these contracts in context.

Rodriguez will be 42 years old in October of 2017.  He has not played 140 games in a season since 2007. Last year right knee and left thumb injuries contributed to limit him to 99 games.  He has played 88 of the Yankees’ 91 games so far this year, but that has not kept his numbers from continuing a gradual and seemingly unstoppable slide:

2007: 54 HR, 156 RBI, .314 BA, 1.067 OPS (his last Most Valuable Player campaign)

2008: 35 HR, 103 RBI, .302 BA, .965 OPS

2009: 30 HR, 100 RBI, .286 BA, .933 OPS

2010: 30 HR, 125 RBI, .270 BA, .847 OPS

2011: 16 HR, 62 RBI, .276 BA, .823 OPS

Rodriguez’s OPS has thus decreased for four straight years. To date in 2012 it is .788.

Perhaps more troubling for the Yankees is that, as Rodriguez has become older and more injury-prone, his ability to credibly play third base has just about disappeared.  “So what,” you might say, “they’ll just DH him.” 

That would work, except the Yankees also have Mark Teixeira under contract through 2016 at $22.5M per season, and you have to believe he will be ready for some days off sooner than later as he approaches his mid-30s. 

For that matter, Derek Jeter cannot play shortstop forever. A way to keep The Captain around would be to stash him at DH.  Tough to do with Rodriguez and Teixeira in the way.

Howard will be 36 years old in October of 2016.  Until this season, following a freak Achilles tendon injury on the last play of the 2011 National League Division Series, Howard had played no fewer than 143 games since becoming the Phillies’ full-time starter at first base in 2006 with seasons of 159, 160 and 162 games to his credit.  Howard’s numbers have also slipped some:

2007: 47 HR, 136 RBI, .268 BA, .976 OPS

2008: 48 HR, 146 RBI, .251 BA, .881 OPS

2009: 45 HR, 141 RBI, .279 BA, .931 OPS

2010: 31 HR, 108 RBI, .276 BA, .859 OPS

2011: 33 HR, 116 RBI, .253 BA, .835 OPS

The eye-opener for Phillies fans is the significant drop-offs in batting average and OPS in 2011 before the current five-year contract extension even began. 

Howard also suffers from the plague that most one-dimensional sluggers carry: For his career, he has more strikeouts (1,214) than hits of any type (1,047).  Watching Howard every day means seeing a lot of futile waves over sliders from left-handed relief specialists.

And where the Yankees at least have the option of hiding Rodriguez at DH sometimes, no one who has watched Howard play the field believes he can do anything in the National League but play first base—a pretty mediocre first base at that.

So which of these contracts is worse?

It has to be A-Rod’s.

Much of the value of Rodriguez’s contract, and much of its length, was tied to the thought that he would some day break Bonds’s record, returning the title of “all-time home run king” to the Bronx.  When he was still hitting 30 bombs a year, Yankee fans (and executives, no doubt) were talking about 800 career home runs as Rodriguez’s ceiling. 

As seen above, though, Rodriguez’s home run pace is much more suggestive of a player whose probable endpoint is more like 750 home runs. 

Unbelievably great…but if he finishes third behind Aaron and Bonds—I order them that way intentionally—it is just not the return on investment the Yankees got into this for.  And the Yankees will almost certainly struggle to find places in the field where he can play without hurting the team…or himself.

Comparatively, while Howard’s contract may ultimately prove unwise, he has the following factors in his favor at least when discussing him against Rodriguez:  He is younger and nobody has tied his contract value to catching Barry Bonds. 

Would the Phillies like to see Howard hit 500 home runs in their uniform?  Of course.  But he only has 287 home runs now.  Do you see four 50+ home run seasons in Howard’s future?  If so, you are the only one.  Ironically then, Howard benefits from what must necessarily now be tempered expectations.

At this point, if Howard just resumes his more recent paces of 30/100/.255/.850 for a few more years, the Phillies will have to be pretty satisfied.  If that happens, Howard’s contract still will not be considered a great deal for anyone but Howard.

But at least it won’t be the dud firework that A-Rod’s will almost certainly turn out to be.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Are They Capable of Making a Playoff Run This Year?

Since the All-Star break, the Phillies are 5-4 (and could easily be 7-2), and their latest win, which was of a walk-off variety compliments of Jimmy Rollins, might have convinced management to allow the team to try and make a playoff run as opposed to being sellers in the trade market.

If the Phillies sign Cole Hamels to a long-term deal before the trade deadline, it will be the biggest affirmation that the Phightins are ready to make another World Series run.The big question is, would the Phillies be making the right decision by not being sellers in the trade market?

If you look into the Phillies’ future, the youth on this team doesn’t look promising. John Mayberry is the youngest Phillies position player at 28 (and he turns 29 this year). The Phillies farm system is completely depleted, and the team still has issues in their bullpen ( ofpitchers who have appeared in 10 or more games, only Papelbon has an ERA under 3.5), Trading key pieces like Hamels and Victorino (and possibly Rollins and Cliff Lee) could bring some quality youth to our farm system and to the big league ball club.

However, there are several reasons to believe the Phillies could make a run at the playoffs. Although the Phillies are 11 games back in the standings for a wild card berth, stranger things have happened. If you just look at one year ago, the Rays and Cardinals were 8.5 games behind a playoff spot going into September and both made it (and every Phillies fan knows how the Cardinals story ended).

In 2007, the Mets had a seven-game lead with 17 left to play against the Phils, and the Phils won the division. So being back 11 in the loss column on July 22 and making the playoffs is not an impossible task. There also is the fact the projected starting lineup has only played in a handful of games this year. With Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay all healthy, the Phils have been playing a lot better.

The other thing to look at is the Phils’ schedule. They play the Braves another 11 times, the Nationals another nine times and have series left against the Reds, Brewers, Cardinals Diamondbacks, Astros and two series against the Mets and Marlins. Basically, the Phillies control their own destiny. If they continue to compete and win series, making up 11 games doesn’t seem out of the question.

Which way will the Phillies decide to go? The coming week should be a huge indication if they are sellers in this trading market.  One thing is certain: The RBI single Jimmy Rollings had in the 12th inning made the decision a lot more difficult and could have possibly saved the season, even if it is just for a day.

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Chase Utley Is Going to Get Booed by Phillies Fans, but That’s OK

Not since Pete Rose was diving headlong into third and spiking third outs into the Veteran’s Stadium astroturf has Philadelphia loved a baseball player more than Chase Utley. For a guy from southern California, Utley espouses the gritty East Coast sports fan ethos exceptionally well.

That said, it is very likely that Utley is going to hear some boos from the crowd at Citizens Bank Park if he doesn’t start hitting. These won’t be the throaty, malicious boos of the sort reserved in Philadelphia for the likes of Kobe Bryant and Michael Irvin, but they will be audible.

In fact, Utley was booed last month during his rehab assignment, in a game between the single-A Clearwater Phillies and Tampa Yankees after going 0-5 with three strikeouts, according to a report from Bob Brookover of Philly.com.

At the start of play Friday, Utley was hitting .222 with two home runs and 10 singles. His OBP is .283, a surprisingly paltry number even in this lineup of free swingers.

Utley is still working his way back to the speed of the majors, and most rational fans understand this. At the same time, he is making $15 million this year—and 30 more over the next two years of his contract—and at some point, the collective patience of the Phillies fanbase is going to wear thin.

It always does.

But it’s not just about what Utley is doing at the plate. Fans are peeved about the way Utley communicated the seriousness of his right knee injury to the Phillies’ front office.

Anecdotally, this sentiment is easily found on online fan forums and reader comments on Phillies news articles. The thinking is, if Utley had acknowledged that the knee was going to be a problem earlier, the Phillies could have found a more offensively capable replacement than rookie Freddy Galvis.

So, unless Utley rediscovers his hitting stroke, it seems likely that 30,000 or so amateur sports physicians are going to let Utley hear their discontent.

In this miserable Phillies season, in which many games have devolved into hacking contests with Phillies players competing to see who can swing at balls furthest out of the strike zone, Utley’s patient approach is something this Phillies team has missed badly.

The good news is that Utley is unflappable and isn’t going to let the boos get to him. Remember what he told the booing fans at the 2008 All Star game at Yankee Stadium? If anything, he will probably use any booing he hears from Philly to focus his comeback.

“I know there are some people who have given up on me,” Utley said last month just prior to his return, as reported by The Inquirer’s Matt Gelb. “There are some people who have given up on this team. I’ll be the first one to tell you that I definitely have not given up on myself and our guys have not given up on this year.”

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Phillies Trade Rumors: Hunter Pence Is the One Guy Philly Shouldn’t Trade

Everybody is waiting for the Philadelphia Phillies to go into fire sale mode. And since the trade deadline is fast approaching and the team is still facing a double-digit deficit in the NL East, that time could come very soon.

If the Phillies do decide to sell, they’ll have quite a few players to offer needy contenders. Cole Hamels will be Philly’s biggest trade chip if the organization fails to sign him to an extension in the near future, and you can rest assured that he will be traded if a deal can’t be struck.

If Hamels is signed, Cliff Lee could be moved to open up a little payroll flexibility for the offseason, an idea that’s been kicked around by the likes of Peter Gammons and Danny Knobler.

As far as bats go, the Phillies could end up moving free-agent-to-be Shane Victorino. Former NL MVP Jimmy Rollins could go too.

So could Hunter Pence.

…Apparently.

It’s more of an idea than a rumor at this point, as the Phillies haven’t really sent any signals that they’re willing to trade Pence, who is under contract through next season.

But according to ESPN’s Jayson Stark, there’s definitely interest in Pence around Major League Baseball. 

“He’s attracting as much interest as anybody they have,” said one executive, “maybe even more than Hamels.”

Stark mentions the Pittsburgh Pirates as a possible fit for Pence, which makes sense given their known interest in Justin Upton (B/R has the latest on him all in one place). Other contenders that could use a good bat in right field include the Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants and maybe the Texas Rangers.

Naturally, actually trading Pence is complicated. Stark outlined the various dilemmas facing the Phillies pretty well in his report:

[Pence] can’t be a free agent until after next season, so this is the optimal time to move him. But he and Carlos Ruiz are their only productive right-handed bats. And if they deal Pence and Shane Victorino, it would mean having to reconstruct their entire outfield by next Opening Day. So if the Phillies have a rough week, they’ll almost certainly listen on Pence in the days before the deadline. But they’d need a major haul in return to pull the trigger. 

Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer also chimed in on the Pence dilemma. He’s more or less in favor of the idea of trading Pence, noting that he could fetch a more impressive haul of prospects than Hamels and that the Phillies could take the money saved by trading Pence and spend it on two outfield spots instead of just one.

All around, pretty interesting stuff. It’s not out of the question that the Phillies could take all this into consideration and then deal Pence at some point in the next 10 days or so.

It’s either that, or they could realize how valuable Pence is and hold on to him for the rest of this season and all of 2013.

Pence is not in the same boat as Victorino. There’s no pressure on the Phillies to trade him because he’s about to become a free agent, nor is there any pressure on the Phillies to take what they can get for Pence because he’s having a poor season.

This is because Pence is actually having a pretty decent season. He entered Friday’s action hitting .277/.344/.470 with an .814 OPS, 17 home runs and 57 RBI (h/t Baseball-Reference.com).

That .814 OPS is a far cry from the .954 OPS Pence posted after he came over to the Phillies from Houston last season, but it’s right in line with the .828 OPS he posted when he was a member of the Astros last season.

The four seasons before that, Pence averaged an OPS of .817. So don’t call Pence an underachiever. His numbers are right about where they should be this season.

In fact, it can be argued that Pence has overachieved this season. With Chase Utley and Ryan Howard out of the lineup for virtually the entire season, there was a lot of pressure on Pence to come through with clutch hits. 

To that end, he did pretty well, hitting .275/.343/.466 with 13 homers and 42 RBI while Utley and Howard were absent.

Utley returned on June 27. Howard returned a few days later on July 6. Since June 27, Pence is hitting .288/.347/.485 with four homers and 15 RBI. As MLB.com noted on Friday, Pence has been money with runners in scoring position since Utley’s return. He’s collected nine hits in 20 at-bats in such situations.

Basically, what Pence has done with Utley and Howard back in Philly’s lineup is pick up where he left off last season. He’s a different player with the two of them in the lineup.

As long as their bodies don’t betray them (fingers crossed, Phillies fans), Utley and Howard are going to be back in Philly’s lineup next season too. So will Pence if the Phillies choose to keep him. It’s not crazy to think he could put together a monster year.

It’s also not crazy to think that the Phillies will be able to contend in 2013, a notion that a lot of people seem to have already disregarded due to the team’s struggles this season. Even if they fail to re-sign Hamels, they’ll still have Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee in their rotation, not to mention the underappreciated Vance Worley. Ruben Amaro will have holes to patch elsewhere, but he’s not looking at a complete rebuilding job even if he jettisons Hamels and Victorino at the trade deadline.

Amaro should only deal Pence this season if he thinks the Phillies are doomed in 2013, in which case he should deal every other tradeable asset he has at his disposal. If Amaro doesn’t think the Phillies can win in 2013, then he should get the ball rolling on a rebuilding phase right away.

I think we all know this isn’t going to happen. Even if they do make some deals in the next 10 days or so, the Phillies should still have enough talent to contend in 2013. Or at least, that’s what the organization will peddle to its sizable fanbase.

Either way, keeping Pence around is of paramount importance to the team’s chances next season. If his fellow sluggers stay healthy, the Phillies could make this 2012 season nothing more than a bad memory.

And if things don’t work out, hey, there will be a trade deadline next year too.

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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25 Reasons the Phillies Should Not Blow Up Their Core at Trade Deadline

The 2012 season has kind of been like a game of poker for the Philadelphia Phillies.

With the July 31 trade deadline just around the corner, they’re sitting at the table already knowing that the other players (the contending teams) hold better hands. Ruben Amaro Jr. is using his best poker face, but it’s just one of those hands. The other players just seem to know.

But there’s no shame in admitting that you’ve been dealt a bad hand. The fact of the matter is that any team would struggle after missing their third and fourth hitters, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, respectively, for most of the season.

Then you lose your ace, Roy Halladay, and the plan of action suddenly becomes pretty clear: Fold. Don’t lose anything else. There will always be another chance.

But not for the Phillies. The Phillies are the game’s high rollers. They have the luxury of staying in the game until the last moment, waiting out some stroke of good fortune that seems to have evaded them since the first card was dealt.

For the Phillies, that means waiting out the trade deadline until the last possible moment. They’ll watch the dealer turn over cards until there is absolutely no way that they can win.

Of course, at that moment, the Phillies will begin to dismantle their “core” of players—the players that the entire roster is built around for now and for the future.

That could mean dealing obvious names like Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino, but it could mean so much more.

Cliff Lee. Jimmy Rollins. Vance Worley. Ryan Howard. Are any of them really safe?

If the Phillies go into an all-out sell-mode, all hell could break loose here in the city of Philadelphia, but I’ll be the one to tell you why it shouldn’t.

With the trade deadline less than two weeks away, I’ll give you 25 reasons why the Phillies shouldn’t blow up their “core.”

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Roy Halladay, Ryan Howard Back for Philadelphia Phillies: Too Little, Too Late?

The Philadelphia Phillies are now almost entirely healthy.

Roy Halladay made his return Tuesday, while Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are getting back into the offense.

This is what Phillies fans have been waiting for all year, but you have to wonder whether this is simply too little, too late.

The Phillies seem to be playing better as of late, but four teams sit between them and the top of the division.

That is a difficult spot to be in right now for the simple reason that it is not enough for just the Washington Nationals or Atlanta Braves to lose.

If just the Nationals collapsed, unless the rest of the division collapsed as well, the Phillies would still be behind three opponents.

That is a tough path to travel, to say the least.

However, it would be foolish for me to say that all is absolutely, without a doubt lost. Weird things happen all the time, and they especially seem to happen on the baseball diamond.

The Phillies are playing better, as I already mentioned. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are two of the best hitters in all of baseball, and if they are able to dive right into midseason form, that would help quite a bit.

In fact the Phillies’ biggest weakness has been their bullpen, and if they decide to buy instead of sell, they would need to address this area.

So, it will be difficult for the Phillies if they decide that they want to make a run for the playoffs rather than sell and worry about winning next year

Any hope rests in strong returns from injury by key players as well as adding a piece or two to the bullpen.

Admittedly, that hope is slim.

The National League East is strong, and what are the odds of all four of their opponents simultaneously collapsing?

It will be tough, but if they don’t sell, they must at least think a comeback for at least a wild-card position is possible.

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Philadelphia Phillies: The 20 Most Significant July Trades in Franchise History

The Phillies have made plenty of “significant” trades over the course of franchise history.  Arguably the best pitcher to ever put on a Phillies uniform, Steve Carlton was acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in a trade.  Also, “significant” isn’t always “good.”  They threw in future Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg to the Chicago Cubs along with Larry Bowa in order to acquire Ivan DeJesus.

Neither of those trades occurred in July.  The trade deadline has become more important than ever for a team’s success for the future and the current season.  The following list are of the 20 most significant July trades in team history.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Why the Phillies Should Trade Jimmy Rollins

Jimmy Rollins has seen it all with the Philadelphia Phillies during his career. 

Among many things, Rollins has won a World Series and earned a league MVP, but also has endured the terrible years of the late 1990s and been a part of the franchise’s 10,000th loss. 

My point is, Rollins has seen all he could see in Philadelphia, and maybe a change of scenery for the veteran shortstop could work out for all parties involved. 

While there were questions of whether or not the Phillies would re-sign Rollins in this past offseason, the team did ink the face of its franchise to a three-year deal worth $33 million. 

However, considering how bad the Fightin’s have been this season, many people have speculated that the Phillies would rebuild and ship out their franchise cornerstones like Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino and, recently, Rollins.

According to CBSSports.com’s Danny Knobler, the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have extreme woes at shortstop, have interest in the seasoned infielder.

As they try to keep pace with the Giants in the NL West, the Dodgers could desperately use a decent shortstop as Dee Gordon is on the DL with a torn ligament in his thumb and Luis Cruz and Juan Uribe are just not getting the job done.

Something to keep in mind is that Rollins has 10/5 rights (10 years in the league, five in a row with one team), meaning he can’t be traded without his approval. 

After a rough start to the year, Rollins bumped his batting average up to .262 and has nine homers and 34 RBIs on the year.

Not only is Rollins swinging a hot bat, but also he improves the Dodgers defensively, brings veteran leadership into the locker room and boasts a great deal of historic postseason success.

A California native, you have to believe that Rollins would like to move back to his home state and finish out his career there if the Phillies are going to start to rebuild and fail to compete.

While we aren’t in the shortstop’s head and don’t know how he feels about it, a deal to L.A. makes sense from the outsider’s perspective.

In regards to the Phillies, if the team cannot re-sign Cole Hamels, it might want to begin rebuilding.

If they decide to go this route, GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. should seriously consider trading Rollins while he’s on a hitting tear and his trade stock is high.

Not only would they acquire minor league prospects for Rollins, but also they would be saving a large sum of money that they would otherwise still owe the shortstop. 

While a trade would probably devastate longtime Philly fans, it makes sense from a baseball standpoint for both teams—it’s just a matter if Rollins is okay with it.  

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