Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels: A 2012 Tale of Two Pitchers

Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. On paper, they are two of the best left-handed starters in the National League, perhaps in all of baseball. Cole and Cliff. In this tale of two pitchers, for one, it is almost the best of times; for the other, yes, it is the worst of times.

The first guy is having a season that puts him somewhere within the Cy Young Award discussion. The other “C”? Well, let’s just say that he’s having a season for the ages—for all of the wrong reasons.

Cole and Cliff. The younger lefty is now 14-6 with a 2.94 ERA. Cliff? 2-7, 3.83. It would be a stretch to say that Lee has pitched as well as Cole this year, and I am not making that argument. On the other hand, their performances have not been all that dissimilar, except for those two little columns labeled “wins” and “losses.”  And in keeping with that, the following statement has to be one of the strangest statistical oddities of the 2012 Major League Baseball season. Tonight, Cliff Lee will toe the rubber versus the Cincinnati Reds in search of his first home win, and third overall win, of the season. Yes, Virginia, it is August 22, not April 15. (Talk about a taxing season for Mr. Lee).

Not only is this, arguably, the weirdest stat in all of baseball this year, but it is also one of the craziest things I’ve witnessed in many years of following this wonderful, confounding sport. My main conclusion to all of this is that while Lee has not pitched as well he had in the previous four seasons (His overall numbers from 2008-2011 merited him Top 5 consideration among all MLB pitchers during that span), he has been victimized by some of the worst displays of offense, defense, relief pitching and managing imaginable.

Truly, it’s been almost unimaginable—especially for a team that came into the season as five-time-defending NL East Champs. Yes, this is the same team (more or less) whose pitching led them to an MLB-best  and franchise record 102 wins, despite losing eight straight games during what became garbage time.

Just last year, the Phillies celebrated “Big Three” (It was a Big Four of “R2, C2”, but Roy Oswalt suffered through various injuries) lived up to its hype, all finishing in the top three in NL Cy Young balloting. In a case where the voters seemed to get it just right: Roy (Doc) Halladay finished second behind the LA Dodgers‘ Clayton Kershaw. Lee was third, followed by Arizona’s Ian Kennedy and then Hamels.

This year? The race seems to wide open, with Kershaw and Hamels in consideration with the Reds’ Johnny Cueto, the New York Mets‘ R.A. Dickey, and seemingly, most of the pitchers from the San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals. If you were wondering about Ian Kennedy, the man who arrived last year as an ace, going 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, his ERA has ballooned to a mediocre 4.24 this year, almost a half-point worse than Lee’s. His record? A disappointing, but respectable 11-10.

Lee’s rather comically unfair 2-7 record even stands out among Philles hurlers this year. The team’s main six starters numbers in 2012—using only very basic stats—look like this. For Joe Blanton, since traded to LA, I’ve used only his Philly numbers. WHIP, for those not familiar, is walks plus hits per innings pitched.

Pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K/BB
Joe Blanton	8-9	4.59	1.19	115/18
Roy Halladay	7-7	3.95	1.08	95/19
Cole Hamels	2-7	3.83	1.16	168/42
Kyle Kendrick	6-9	4.20	1.37	81/39
Cliff Lee	2-7	3.83	1.16	142/24
Vance Worley	6-8	4.11	1.48	100/45

Clearly, these numbers tell the story of a pitcher who has had terrible support during the year, and if you’ve watched all or most of the games, they barely do justice to the…well…injustice of it all. The above just shows it from a team perspective, but how about from a league perspective. The below charts show Lee’s record compared to the pitchers with the most similar earned run averages.

Pitcher	ERA	W-L
Josh Johnson (Marlins)	3.73	7-10
Trevor Cahill (Diamondbacks)	3.75	9-10
Lucas Harrell (Astros)	3.81	10-8
Lee	3.83	2-7
Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)	3.87	11-10
Bronson Arroyo (Reds)	3.96	9-7
Wandy Rodriguez (mostly with Astros)	4.00	8-12

The chart shows about a .500 record for all of the other pitchers with similar ERAs, with two of them managing respectable records despite toiling for a horrible Astros team. Do you need more ammo to show how poorly Lee has been supported during his nightmare 2012 season? Cliff is superior to all of these hurlers in: WHIP, K/BB and innings per start.

The next chart shows Lee’s record with among those with similar WHIP numbers.

Pitcher	WHIP	W-L
Wade Miley (Diamondbacks)	1.13	13-8
Jonathan Niese (Mets)	1.15	10-6
Gio Gonzalez (Nats)	1.16	16-6
Lee	1.16	2-7
Edwin Jackson (Nats)	1.17	7-8
Paul Maholm (mostly with Cubs)	1.17	11-7
Clayton Richards (Padres)	4.00	8-12

 Per this group, for pitchers not named Cliff Lee, the average record is 11-8. And yes, per this gang of pretty good WHIP-ers, Lee is the best in terms of K/BB ratio and innings pitched per start.

All of these stats and normal baseball logic would suggest that Lee has easily pitched well enough to be about 10-8 in his 21 starts this year, if he had even average support. With good support, perhaps 12-6. No, this is not Cy Young or even Clayton Kershaw territory, but he has hardly stunk the joint out this year. Far from it.

So, how does Hamels play into all this. None of this to detract from Hamels, who has been about the only bright sport for Phillies fans this year. Yes, Chooch Ruiz (until he got injured) and Freddy Galvis’ poise and amazing defense at second base (now, ancient history due to his back and injury and 50-game suspension) were about all the faithful had, and even those turned sour. In Hamels’ present groove, he could even make a run at 20 wins.

And so, the narrative tends to be set, even during the post-game analysis by the local (Comcast Sportsnet) post game crews over the weekend. In what typifies the trajectories of the two southpaw’s seasons the reactions to their most recent starts in Milwaukee was interesting. Hamels was praised for having all his pitches working in a 4-3 win; Lee was questioned for continuing to “pound the strike zone” during what turned out to be a 7-4 loss.He received his 14th “no-decision” in 21 starts. Bullpen help, anyone?

Two things come to mind here:

1. There was an element in truth to the reactions to both pitchers’ performances

2. Lee pitched as well as Hamels. No, check that, he pitched the stronger game.

Here were their stats in Milwaukee, which were strikingly similar, with an edge to Lee.

 

Pitcher	IP	H	R/ER	K/BB	Net Pitches/Strikes
Hamels	7.2	8	3/3	10/1	107/75
Lee	7.2	5	4/3	12/0	111-82

 

The craziness of this game is that both pitchers gave up a homer to Aramis Ramirez and another one to Ryan Braun. Check that, Lee gave up two to Braun; Hamels gave up a second tracer to the red-hot leftfielder that somehow did not clear the wall in left-center, just (apparently) not hitting the yellow line at the top. As fortune would have it, Cole was bailed out by a downright moronic, two-out baserunning gaffe by Jonathan Lucroy on the play. First, he fell asleep; then he went back to second thinking that he missed it. He could have scored easily on the play, and the speedy Braun would have/should have an easy double and possibly more.

Of course, Hamels was also bailed out by closer Jonathan Papelbon who came into the bottom of the eight (after a two-out, two-run homer by Braun) for a rare four-out save. In Lee’s start, he was cruising in the eighth and threw what should have been a 1-2-3 eighth but for a throwing error by third baseman Kevin Frandsen on a fairly routine play. From there, Lee was pulled and all the usual heck broke loose.

The deep frustration for Phillies fans is that watching Cliff Lee this year has suddenly become a horror show for Phillies fans. Like Hamels, Lee is one very few pitchers who average 7 innings per start, and his numbers, as illustrated, have been those of a reliably good pitcher. It’s just that this reliably good pitcher who has always pitched, fielded and run the bases with style, poise, maximum effort and class, has only two wins in 21 starts.

And, so it goes for the still-popular, incredibly unflappable lefty co-ace. The worst of times, indeed, with the hope and expectation that this is a one-year anomaly. It is, right?

 

 

 

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Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay: Which Phillies Ace Returns to Dominance in 2013?

A team with three aces shouldn’t be eight games under .500 on August 21st, but only one of the Phillies aces is actually pitching like one.

Cole Hamels is earning his money. 

Hamels is 14-6 with a 2.94 ERA and 168 strikeouts, and appears to be a legitimate Cy Young candidate.

The other two aces, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, have struggled big time this season.

Lee has only two wins and a 3.83 ERA, his worst since 2007.  He is struggling to hit his spots and has surrendered a very un-Lee-like amount of hits, including 23 in his last three starts.  

Roy Halladay spent some time on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, and his stats reflect those of a pitcher who is throwing injured.  

Halladay is 7-7 with an ERA of 3.95, his worst since 2004.

Because the Phillies kept both Lee and Halladay through the trade deadline, it appears that the team has confidence that their aces will be back to their old selves next season and will allow the team to once again compete for a World Series.

If the question is which one of these pitchers will return to dominance, the popular answer would be both of them.  And that’s not out of the question.

Both pitchers are having one of the worst seasons of their careers and haven’t really shown signs of a decline before this year.  Could this just be the result of a bad team and low morale?

It’s possible.  Up until this year, the worst ERA that Lee had in a season since 2007 was 3.22 in 2010.  For Halladay, his worst ERA since 2004 until this year was 3.71 in 2007, but every year after that Halladay had a sub-3.00 ERA; that is until 2012.

So who will have a better 2013 season?  I have to go with Roy Halladay.

Of course, that prediction depends on Halladay’s ability to stay healthy through the season.  If he can come back from his shoulder injury then he should be able to pitch like the old Roy Halladay.

After his first nine starts this year, Halladay had an ERA of 3.22.  He only started two more games before going on the DL, so you can’t help but wonder if he started to feel that discomfort in his tenth start.

In his first two years in Philadelphia, Halladay had a record of 40-16 and an ERA of 2.40.  If he is fully healthy in 2013, it isn’t hard to imagine Halladay winning over 15 games and having an ERA under 3.00.  He is, after all, a future Hall of Famer.

 

Follow @TimStoeckle on Twitter

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Ranking the Penny-for-Penny Value of All Philadelphia Phillies Players

In a season where the Philadelphia Phillies can lay claim to the highest payroll in the National League and finish near the bottom of the National League East, you better believe that fans are going to start asking questions.

How can a team with a payroll that rivals the behemoth New York Yankees, currently in first place in the American League East, fall victim to teams like the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves?

Well, there is a simple answer. They’re not spending wisely. You can spend all the money in the world on this sport, on one team, but if you’re not spending money on the right players and personnel, you’re not going to win. It’s as simple as that.

When a team like the Phillies isn’t winning, however, the conversation is anything but simple. People want to know and will be quick to point out players that are making far too much money, the best steals on the roster, and even which players should be guaranteed money long term.

So let this slideshow serve as something like a “primer.” Heading into the offseason, we’re going to hear a lot about the Phillies’ payroll and the massive, albatross contracts that saddle it.

If you really want to know who’s burdening this club, however, you have to look at the penny-for-penny value. That’s right. You have to compare the amount of money that each player is making to the value of their services on the club.

So naturally, cheaper players are going to be more valuable. That won’t stop some big-money players from being extremely important to this roster though. It also won’t stop big-money players from tying down the payroll like an anchor.

So in this battle of perceived value versus guaranteed money, who on this club is coming out on top?

*Note: This slideshow is discussing the 2012 season only. We will discuss the player’s 2012 salary and their value to the club for this season.

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7 Reasons Charlie Manuel Needs to Keep His Job as Phillies’ Skipper for 2013

With the way the Philadelphia Phillies 2012 season is going, it should really come as no surprise that seven-year skipper Charlie Manuel‘s managing decisions have been questioned.

As typically happens when a team is underachieving the way many believe the Phils have this year, Manuel has found that his job is anything but safe.

Of course, the record and overall inconsistent play has been a source of concern for the Phillies and their fans. Manuel just hasn’t been able to get the job done this year with the players that he has had to work with. He has done the best that he could, but as critics will say, there is a lot that he could have done differently.

Who knows if the Phillies would be looking at making the playoffs if Manuel did things a little differently? No one really and with the bullpen’s utter failures, it is hard to believe that any manager could have made this a playoff-caliber team.

Part of the reason why Manuel’s future with the team is in question is because of Ryne Sandberg.

Currently managing the Phils’ AAA affiliate, the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs, Sandberg, despite having just four years of minor league managerial experience, has already been tabbed as the potential successor to Manuel. The players are high on him and he was recognized as the 2011 International League Manager of the Year.

For the Phils and the fans, promoting Sandberg could seem like the perfect choice. After all, he was already scouted by both the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs, the organization Sandberg built his Hall of Fame career with, for jobs last year. The Phillies had to sweat it out and wait as fortunately neither team chose him.

The Phillies, who made the regretful decision to trade the young Sandberg when he was just a prospect in the system, are not going to make the mistake of letting him leave again. They are committed to giving him a chance as right they should.

It just shouldn’t be next year, though.

In order to thoroughly explain why Manuel deserves to keep his job, the best way to do so is to compare him to Sandberg, his would-be successor. After the comparisons, it should be clear that Manuel, and not Ryno, should be the Phillies manager at least until his contract expires following the 2013 season.

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25 Least Exhilarating Summers in Philadelphia Phillies History

At this point in the season last year, heading down to Citizens Bank Park to check out the Philadelphia Phillies was at the top of the list for fans’ summer plans.

Now, they’d rather take a nap. It’s been that kind of season.

Sure, the Phillies have their excuses, but at the end of the day fans don’t care about excuses. They care about having a team in the postseason hunt and getting ready to gear up for October baseball. But there will be no October baseball for the Phillies after this summer.

There was no big name, All-Star addition at the trade deadline. Instead, they sent a pair of former All-Stars packing: Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence.

But in a funny, peculiar kind of way, Phillies fans should find some kind of comfort in knowing that as sad as this season has been for the Phillies, it isn’t the saddest by far. It’s not even in the top 25.

So if you’re looking for a reason to cheer up, here is what I can do for you. Take a look at this history of the least exciting seasons in Phillies history and be thankful that it isn’t this bad.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Should Phils Try to Re-Sign Juan Pierre This Offseason?

Remember when Juan Pierre was battling with Scott Podsednik to win the fifth outfielder spot on the Philadelphia Phillies’ 25-man roster in spring training?  Remember when, at times, it seemed like Podsednik had a slight edge?

Well, after batting .308 in 97 games and eclipsing his stolen base total from last season in 54 fewer games, Pierre has arguably been one of the Phillies best offseason acquisitions.

But what happens after this season?

Pierre signed with the Phils prior to the start of spring training with a one-year, $800,000 deal.

As he draws closer to becoming a free agent once again, should the Phillies attempt to re-sign him to fill a similar bench role next season?

According to an article by Todd Zolecki on the Phillies’ website, manager Charlie Manuel thinks that the entire National League could have a place on their roster for Pierre next year.

“Juan Pierre is a very special player for you,” the manager said.  “There are a lot of things you can do with him.  He really plays big up in the National League.  I think he’s a bigger National League player than he is in the American League.  The older he gets, the more his age gets.  He can definitely play longer being a National League player, I think.

“I can see a spot for him next year, yes sir.  I can see a spot for him on about every National League team.”

At 35 years old, Pierre is batting .308 with 93 hits and 29 stolen bases in 97 games, but has batted .188 in 48 at-bats against left-handed pitching. 

Pierre is another left-handed bat in the Phillies’ lineup, and does not have the strongest arm in the outfield.  However, his consistency at the plate combined with his speed on the bases and leadership in the clubhouse make for attributes the Phillies’ roster could welcome next season.

After trading Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence and Joe Blanton, and with Placido Polanco potentially becoming a free agent, the Phils could have multiple new faces on their roster next season as they try to return to their winning ways.

So, should they attempt to re-sign Pierre in order to have another veteran presence in a clubhouse with new faces?

Pierre is a versatile player at the plate and on the base paths, as he can bunt for a hit and steal his way into scoring position.  However, the Phillies have limited options for their batting lineup when he starts.

With Jimmy Rollins essentially locked into the leadoff spot (he’s batted .216 in74 at-bats from the three-spot), Pierre has batted primarily from the two-hole in the Phils’ lineup.  From 2009-’11, Pierre had 1,507 at-bats from the leadoff spot and just 62 at-bats from the two-hole.

Rollins has batted .215 against left-handed pitchers this season, meaning that with Pierre in the lineup, the Phillies would have two very similar players at the top of the order.

Furthermore, where does Pierre fit in the Phillies’ outfield?

If Domonic Brown, Nate Schierholtz, Laynce Nix and John Mayberry, Jr. all return, and at the major league level, that would only leave one available outfield spot.  However, chances are very high that the Phillies will try to acquire at least one, if not two outfielders during the offseason.

If the Phillies add two outfielders, it could be hard to find a roster spot for Pierre.  If just one is added, the team may have to decide between Mayberry, who can also play first base, and Pierre for a final outfield spot.

However, a transaction involving Mayberry, Nix or Schierholtz could easily result in the Phillies having an open roster spot for Pierre, if he chose to re-sign.

Having an experienced player whose strikeout and walk totals are nearly identical, and less than 20, would give the Phillies’ bench another great advantage next season. 

Pierre’s performance this season has made him more than simply a bench player.  Rather than a player who can pinch hit or run late in games or serve as spot-starter to give someone a rest, Pierre has proven he can fill in for extended periods of time should an injury arise, while starting three to four times per week regardless.

A lot could depend on the money he is looking for, as well as the other roster additions the Phillies make.

Pierre has already gone from a player who was signed just prior to the start of spring training, to someone who is already on the Phillies’ radar before the offseason even begins.

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5 Ways Philadelphia Phillies Can Fix Their Bullpen This Offseason

In hindsight it probably wasn’t a smart decision for the Philadelphia Phillies to head into this season with a bullpen featuring primarily young and inexperienced pitchers.

Injuries to Michael Stutes and David Herndon weren’t expected to cause them to miss nearly the entire season, and players such as Antonio Bastardo and Chad Qualls were supposed to provide a seamless late-inning transition to closer Jonathan Papelbon.

Instead, the Phils’ bullpen in the second-half features players such as Michael Schwimer, Jeremy Horst and B.J. Rosenberg.

Not quite what was expected for a team whose top major league ready prospects primarily consist of relief pitchers.

As David Murphy wrote on Philly.com in June, the Phillies spent approximately 11.68 percent of their entire Opening Day payroll on the bullpen for this season. From 2008-2010, the percentage was above 19 percent. Murphy also points out that approximately $17 million of the nearly $20 million paid to the bullpen goes to Papelbon, Jose Contreras and Kyle Kendrick. The team’s plan to use young and inexpensive relievers this season has not worked out the way it might have hoped.

However, because these players are still young and considered to be some of the team’s best prospects, there’s a chance that having a year of experience under their belts will be all they need in order to have improved performances next season.

But with only two relievers who currently have an ERA under 3.50, the Phils must still look at ways to address their bullpen, in addition to the other tasks on their to-do list after this season.

Here are five different ways the Phillies can fix their bullpen this offseason.

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10 Reasons Why the Phillies Must Reload, Not Rebuild, in the Offseason

The Philadelphia Phillies were supposed to be leaving questions like “rebuild or reload” for franchises well-versed in that dilemma: your Pittsburgh Pirates, your Milwaukee Brewers.

This is generally the province of the middle-market team, with payrolls south of $100 million and often records south of .500.

But the Phillies spent over $173 million this season only to see all of their careful plans laid to waste by the upstart Washington Nationals, the stalwart Atlanta Braves and, at various times, the rest of the National League. 

With 45 games left to play, the Phillies still have 10.5 games to make up and five teams to pass just to secure the second wild card.  Even if you are not good at math, you know the numbers say it is not going to happen.

Here are 10 reasons why Ruben Amaro Jr.’s answer to the question at hand has to be “reload.”

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9 Options for the Philadelphia Phillies at Third Base Next Year

Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. needs a third baseman for next season.

Amaro told the Philadelphia Inquirer‘s Matt Gelb that he recently discussed how difficult the position is to fill with several of his fellow GMs. The Phillies have even considered the possibility of playing catcher Carlos Ruiz at third base for some games next season. It wouldn’t be a permanent switch. The intention would be to give Ruiz’s knees a rests while keeping his bat in the lineup. 

However, just the fact that the Phillies have discussed such a possibility speaks to their desperation. Quality third basemen are not easy to find. Those teams that have one aren’t very likely to trade him away. It’s a treasured commodity around baseball.

Yet Amaro should have plenty of options for next season if he casts a wide net. The question is whether he’ll pursue a long-term solution for third base during the offseason or perhaps look at a one-year, temporary stopgap at the position. 

If Amaro wants to go big, he may want to wait one year and see if the New York Mets sign David Wright to a contract extension. If the Mets decide they can’t give out that kind of contract, however, or if Wright decides he wants to play someplace else, the Phillies will surely be one of the teams ready to pounce.

Bringing in a placeholder will certainly be easier (and cheaper). But it seems increasingly apparent that Amaro is tired of worrying about third base and wants a reliable player who can man the position for multiple seasons. 

Here are nine players that Amaro should have on his shopping list when he begins calling his colleagues around baseball after the season. 

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25 Offseason Moves the Philadelphia Phillies Could Make to Reclaim NL Throne

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ season could be compared to a dinghy moving through a field of ice in the water.

When you’re forced to hop into a small boat and navigate through a field of ice, you know you’re already facing big problems. That’s what the Phillies faced this season when they were forced to open up the campaign without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

Sure, you can navigate around the big chunks of ice, which is what the Phillies did when they brought in guys like Ty Wigginton, Laynce Nix and Freddy Galvis to play first and second base in the absence of their All-Stars.

Those are moves you make to plug holes in the boat. You don’t want the water pouring in and threatening to take the whole thing down, but some holes are just too big to fill. So when Roy Halladay went down, it was kind of like hitting the proverbial iceberg.

The water poured into the boat and the Phillies had no way of stopping it. It rushed in and flushed their postseason hopes away, and now the club is forced to look toward the future.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing.

The Phillies made a pair of moves at the trade deadline to free up some space under the luxury tax so that they could fix this thing. In the following slideshow, I’ll take a look at a few scenarios that could lead the Phillies back to the top of the NL East in 2013.

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