4 Reasons the Philadelphia Phillies Will Finish off Impossible Comeback

The second Wild Card is certainly making the MLB playoff race much more interesting this year. More teams are in contention as fewer days on the calender remain.

Earlier this season, it would have been easy to write off the Philadelphia Phillies. They were struggling mightily and they did not look like a playoff team.

Entering August 23, the Phillies were 10 games under .500 and 20 games behind the Washington Nationals for the NL East lead. Since then, the Phillies have gone 15-4 and are just three games out of a Wild Card spot.

There is a good chance that the Phillies can keep their amazing comeback going and reach the playoffs.

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Detailing Where the Philadelphia Phillies’ Money Is Best and Worst Spent

The 2012 Philadelphia Phillies‘ payroll is just over $170 million. Unfortunately, general manager Ruben Amaro’s management of that cash has led to large sums of money spread out over only a few players—some worthy of their paycheck, some not even close.

The Phillies have finally gotten back over the .500 mark, but a team with this high of a payroll should never find itself 14 games under .500 to begin with.

Amaro has been too quick to sign players to extensions and overpay for talent. He might have to learn the hard way from his mistakes, but we’ll leave that decision to David Montgomery.

The Phillies have moved further and further away from a World Series victory ever since Amaro took over the helm in 2009. The Phillies’ streak of five straight NL East titles will end in a few short weeks, but at three games back from a wild-card spot, the Phillies still have a shot at returning to the postseason.

Here are three of the best and three of the worst allocations of funds for the 2012 Phillies. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Fantasy, Reality and Magic Take Phils over .500

Rule No. 1: never root for your fantasy team over your real team.

Particularly when your real team has a magic carpet under it.

I have never finished better than eighth out of 14 teams in my mixed keeper fantasy baseball league.  I am running third this season with three weeks left.  The guy right behind me (who won the league last year) sent Cliff Lee to the hill against my Josh Johnson today.

Johnson cruised through five innings today without giving up a hit.  Lee gave up an unearned run in the sixth inning aided by an error from Jimmy Rollins and one of Lee’s own.  Johnson was nicked for a run when the suddenly-resurgent John Mayberry Jr. drove Rollins in with a solid two-out single.

From a fantasy perspective?  Fine.  One run in six innings on two hits is pretty good for Johnson.

The Marlins went down quietly in the top of the seventh, and Johnson went back out for the bottom of the frame.  He would face Erik Kratz, Michael Martinez and a pinch-hitter for Lee.  7-8-9.  It sure looked manageable, particularly after Kratz struck out and Martinez grounded weakly to Jose Reyes.

And then it happened.  The magic that the Phillies suddenly have, that they have lacked all season long, showed up again.

Pete Orr came up to hit for Lee.  From a fantasy perspective (and of course in reality too,) this meant that Lee could not win the game unless Orr kept the inning going.

Let me be clear about this: Pete Orr is not a good major-league baseball player.  If Freddy Galvis had not broken his back, Orr might not have seen time today.

Orr quickly went down 1-2 in the count, and then Johnson went to put him away with a 95-miles-per-hour fastball, a pitch that ordinarily would be more than good enough to retire a pop-gun hitter like Orr.

Except Orr shanked a ten-hopper past the second baseman, bringing Jimmy Rollins to the plate with one on and two out.

Maybe a minute later, Rollins golfed a low fastball into the right field bleachers.  The score was 3-1, Phillies, which became final after Jonathan Papelbon pumped another fastball past another hapless Marlin to close it out in the ninth.

Again, for fantasy purposes, this was sort of an apocalypse for me.  Johnson was one pitch away from a final line of 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H.  A great outing, at worst a no-decision.

Three pitches later he was on the hook for the loss he eventually was tagged with.

Here is the thing though: ultimately, I don’t care about Josh Johnson or my admittedly silly fantasy team.

My son (pretty adroitly for a 6-year-old) told me in the eighth inning that I needed the Marlins to tie the game so Johnson would not take the loss.

“No,” I said, “I am not telling you how to live your life, but I never root for my fantasy team over my real team.  I want the Phillies to win.”  And they did.

That makes it seven in a row for the Phillies, now over .500 for the first time since June 3.  Dead and buried as recently as two weeks ago, they are 3.5 games out of the final wild card spot.

The fantasy may be dying, but the reality is that this Phillies team is suddenly magic. 

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Ranking Every Phillies Regular Based on Future Importance

The Philadelphia Phillies haven’t played a “meaningless” month of September for a long time. 

And while they are still scratching and clawing their way back into the back end of a postseason race, a lot of fans have already shifted their focus to how the Phillies can improve in time for the 2013 campaign. 

Well, there’s an easy way to figure out which players are going to help you and who isn’t going to be very effective—find out how important they are in comparison to each other. 

Guys at the top of the list are going to be players that you want to keep. Players at the bottom of the list are going to be guys that could wind up being expendable or replaceable. 

That’s what this slideshow will do. We’ll rank the players currently on the Phillies’ roster by their importance to the future and see where they can improve moving into next season. 

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Cole Hamels Is Already Proving He Is Worth Every Penny of His Monster Deal

Six years, $144 million.

When Philadelphia Phillies fans heard these numbers in the midst of trade rumors surrounding some of the team’s best players, a collective sigh of relief swept through the City of Brotherly Love.

Cole Hamels, the centerpiece of the Phillies franchise, is locked up through the 2018 season. And since signing his monster contract, Hamels has already proven that he is worth the money.

Since agreeing to the contract offer, Hamels has pitched in eight games where he is 3-2 with a 2.56 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 56.2 innings pitched. In those games the Phillies are 5-3. In all games since Hamels’ contract agreement on July 25, the Phillies are 27-17 and find themselves in a situation where they could potentially make a playoff run.

Make no mistake about it, Hamels is the best pitcher on the Phillies roster. He is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball with his 14-6 record, a 3.03 ERA and 184 strikeouts.

Talent-wise, Hamels is worth $144 million over six years.  But, what he offers this Phillies team that will have about $20 million to spend this offseason, is a reason for free-agent talent to flock to his side and help bring a World Series to Philadelphia.

Signing Hamels made Philadelphia a destination.

Free agents who are seeking out multi-year deals can look at the Phillies and see that they have an ace signed for six more years. Along with that ace are two other All-Star caliber starters and two up-and-coming pitchers who can combine to make one of the best rotations in baseball.

So, if you’re B.J. Upton or Michael Bourn, and you see that the Phillies have a solid rotation lined up for the next few years, why wouldn’t you want to go to Philadelphia?

With Hamels locked up, the rotation looks strong, and free agents can go to Philadelphia to fill the holes left in the lineup and in the bullpen.

To sum this up, by signing Hamels the Philadelphia Phillies established that they are not rebuilding, they are retooling. They have a new face of the franchise and they are ready to compete for a World Series next year.

Don’t worry, Philadelphia, this isn’t going to be a rebuilding process. The Phillies are going to be legitimate contenders next year, and a lot of that can be credited to the $144 million man.

 

Follow @TimStoeckle on Twitter

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Philadelphia Phillies: You Gotta Believe

Hope.

It can be a dangerous thing. To a person who is extremely passionate about something, hope can very quickly lead to despair. But hope can also lead to what could be the greatest feeling in the world. The feeling that things can go the right way. The feeling that your devotion and dedication have paid off.  

This is what Philadelphia sports fans go through on a daily basis with their teams: And now the Phillies—who have grabbed the attention of a city—have reminded them that there is always hope.  

These are the same Philadelphia Phillies who traded two starting outfielders along with a strong bottom of the rotation starter at the July trade deadline and were left for dead.  

The Phillies were 46-57 at the trade deadline. They are now 71-71 and are only four games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot.  

Can this team really come back and make the playoffs?  

Just as Philadelphia turned its focus to the Eagles, the Phillies craved our attention. They demanded it. They started winning games.

The city knew that the team was winning; they always know. But they didn’t want to get too excited. Because as I said, hope can be a dangerous thing.

So they waited.

“Wait until we’re under 10 back, then I’ll start thinking about believing.” I remember saying that (or something similar to that). Then it happened.

And I said, “Wait until we’re under eight back.”  And then that happened.

And then I said, “Wait until we’re under five back,” because the difference between six and five back at this point in the year is crucial in my desperate mind. 

And then I went to the game on Tuesday, September 11th against the Miami Marlins.  

I sat down in my seat behind home plate and prepared myself. It was a perfect view. I wasn’t simply at a Phillies game; I was scouting the team. Is this a team that I can believe will make a run? I sat back and watched, looking for signs of life. And what I saw made me a believer.

I watched a team that finally has some heart. A team that has as strong a rotation as any team in baseball and a lineup that, at its best, can compete with anybody.  A team that just got its spark plug back: the city’s hero, Carlos Ruiz. I watched a team that is now only four games out of the playoffs.  

This could happen. This could be real.

Look who the Phillies have left on their schedule. Four games against the Marlins. Four games against the Astros. Three games against the Mets. Three games against the Braves. Six games against the Nationals.  

That is 11 games against teams with a sub-.500 record, which ideally would mean at least eight wins.

Then there are nine games against teams in front of the Phillies in the National League East. For the sake of somebody searching for hope, let’s say the Phillies go 5-4 in those games.  

So, the Phillies go a respectable 13-7 for the rest of the year and finish 84-78.  How would they make the playoffs? 

What would have to happen is that the Cardinals would need to go 9-11 or worse for the rest of the season; and Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, or Milwaukee can’t do better than the Phillies, in order for the Phillies to win the Wild Card outright.

That’s it. It’s possible.

The Cardinals have lost six of their last ten games and have a shaky rotation outside of the surprisingly reliable Kyle Lohse. Their last six games are against the Nationals and Reds which could create some crucial losses for the defending champs.

Also ahead of the Phillies are the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are currently on the decline and have no chance in my mind of making the playoffs; and also the big-money Los Angeles Dodgers, who apparently can’t buy wins after all. But perhaps the most dangerous team is the Milwaukee Brewers, who are the hottest team in baseball. They play their last six games against the Astros and Padres.

There really is a chance, isn’t there?

Just look at the facts and you’ll see that yes, there is a real chance.

What if they miss the playoffs by one game? What if their hot streak ends tomorrow and they’re out of the race by next Tuesday? What if, after all of this, they don’t make the playoffs?

I don’t care about how dangerous hope is.  

Just imagine if they made the stinkin‘ playoffs.

 

Follow @TimStoeckle on Twitter

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Can the Philadelphia Phillies Finish off Their Playoff Run?

To take off my unbiased reporter hat for one second, I am entirely thrilled that the Philadelphia Phillies are finally getting their act together and are only four games out of the National League Wild Card position held by the St. Louis Cardinals right now.

However, four games back isn’t the ultimate target, and so, putting my objective hat back on, I have to wonder what the Phillies’ odds are of completing the comeback in the next few weeks.

Unfortunately, the Phillies will not face off with any of the teams ahead of them in the Wild-Card race, so they will need to win their games but also rely on other teams to knock off the Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates. That definitely is less than ideal because the easiest way to make a comeback is to directly defeat the team you are chasing.

Most of their opponents for the rest of the year will come from the National League East, with the lone exception being the Houston Astros. This will definitely make their run more challenging, but it really will not be that much different than anybody else in the race.

Each of these four teams play roughly an equal number of games against opponents above and below .500, so there won’t necessarily be an advantage for any team in that respect.

The Phillies are incredibly hot right now, so that momentum is going to help them down the stretch, but when the strength of schedule seems to be approximately similar for every team, it is difficult to be in the back of the pack. It is still an uphill battle, but it isn’t impossible.

 

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

Follow @spinkickers

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Why Darin Ruf’s Emergence Could Mean the End of Ryan Howard with Phillies

Before we begin here, ladies and gentlemen, let me emphasize that this article is most likely a complete stretch of any sort of reality we currently have.

On that note…Philadelphia Phillies minor league first baseman and occasional left fielder Darin Ruf was exceptional this year down at Double-A Reading. He led the league in home runs with 38, breaking Ryan Howard’s Reading season record. Ruf also led in RBI with 104. And would you know it, Ruf fell short of the batting average title to complete the Triple Crown…by two points. Nevertheless, he won the Phillies’ Paul Owens Award for the best offensive minor leaguer, and he also won the Eastern League’s MVP Award.

What Phillies fans may care about more, though, is that Ruf was recently promoted to the major league ballclub. He’ll most likely be playing in left field so the Phillies can see what they can get out of him there, but there’s likely the occasional game where he’ll give Ryan Howard the day off and play his natural position of first base.

Speaking of Ryan Howard, is his job in jeopardy with the emergence of Ruf? Has the Phillies’ best minor league positional player made such a statement that Howard, despite the fat contract he’s got on his plate, could in fact lose his starting role or even be traded to make room for Ruf?

Well, the sky is still blue, so for right now I’m going to say no. But in the event that it did happen, here’s a list of why it’s at least a slim possibility.

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Did We Overestimate the Philadelphia Phillies Heading into 2012?

The Philadelphia Phillies have gone 33-21 in the second half of the season. It’s only four wins fewer than their total prior to the All-Star break, but well off the pace of 94 wins by this time last season.

All things considered, does the Phillies’ recent string of success match what we should have expected this season? 

Was a season like last year’s actually a possibility?

Back-to-back 102-win seasons may have been a best-case scenario, and a 37-50 record at the All-Star break might have seemed laughable. 

Since the latter has taken place, however, the Phillies have been winning with more consistency. 

Are they also winning at a pace on par with where expectations should have been, heading into this season?

The Phillies’ historic season last year didn’t end the way they had hoped, and few signs pointed towards improvement at the start of this season, especially considering the injuries to two key players.

The 2011 Phillies finished the regular season batting .248 as a team from September until the start of the postseason. The team then batted .226 in five postseason games to conclude the season. That’s a .237 team average combined from September until their final playoff game.

Shouldn’t expectations have been tempered, then, when the Phillies began the season with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard on the disabled list? 

The Phillies decided against adding any major offensive pieces to their lineup last offseason, with Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix being their biggest acquisitions.

With a healthy team only able to bat .237 to close out the prior season and two stars missing at the start of the next season—not to mention the players Wigginton, Freddy Galvis and an unproven John Mayberry, Jr. now in the starting lineup—the chances of improving on offense were slim for the Phillies at the start of the season.

However, now that Utley and Howard have been back for nearly two months, the Phillies have begun winning with more consistency. 

A winning percentage over .600 during the past two months doesn’t give the Phillies the same win total as last season, but it is likely closer to how the team should have played this season (considering all of their injuries).

And considering how they played prior to the All-Star break, the Phillies’ recent ways have also brought back a feeling that has been familiar around this time each of the past five seasons.

As for the pitching, should we have expected that a bullpen featuring young, inexperienced pitchers wouldn’t experience their share of growing pains as the season progressed?

Phillies’ relievers had a 4.42 combined ERA for the month of July. In the last 30 days, however, only two relievers currently on the roster have an ERA over 3.55. 

As for the starters, what were the chances of the rotation matching the 2.86 ERA that they posted last season?

Few could have expected Cliff Lee to go so long in between wins, or that Kyle Kendrick and Tyler Cloyd would be cemented in the rotation by September. But an increase in team ERA combined with an injury to one of the starters was not out of the question prior to the start of the season.

Yes, it’s easy to look back and analyze, and hindsight is 20/20. The team’s performances in recent seasons gave observers every reason to have high expectations.

However, the rest of the NL East couldn’t have been expected to wait around and allow the Phillies to remain in contention until Utley, Howard and even Roy Halladay returned from injuries.

Even if the Phillies had started the season with a healthy roster, the chances of them running away with the NL East again were slim. However, having a lead at the top of the division would still have been within reach.

If the Phillies had played the entire season the way they are playing now, they likely would be competing with the Atlanta Braves for second place in the NL East and first place in the NL Wild Card standing. 

Not quite the same level of dominance that the past seasons have produced, but still competitive in a tough division.

The Phillies have created high expectations for themselves during each of the past few seasons, and this season was no different. 

Few teams, however, could have remained dominant while missing key pieces and also while counting on an inexperienced bullpen.

The original expectations for this season were not met. If, however, the expectations were to be met even through the injuries suffered during the first half of the season, and the team were to have a respectable finish following a much stronger second half, then those expectations would have been right on the mark.

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2012 MLB Power Rankings for September 10th: Phillies Keep Fighting

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its award-winning baseball simulation engine to present the most comprehensive and unbiased ranking possible of all 30 teams in baseball each Monday during the regular season. To come up with the rankings, using only their statistical performance to date this season, each team is simulated against every other team 100 times – 50 at home and 50 at the opposing ballpark so that all five pitchers in the current rotation start ten times at each location.

(Note: This means that if a pitcher who was in the rotation was recently put on the DL, he will not be included in the simulations. This is true of position players as well, but an injury to one position player will usually have a lesser impact on the week-to-week results.)

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	RS/G	RA/G
1.	Washington Nationals	+2	61.0	4.6	3.6
2.	Cincinnati Reds	–	59.8	4.7	3.8
3.	New York Yankees	+1	58.4	4.8	4.0
4.	Texas Rangers	-3	57.8	4.8	3.9
5.	Tampa Bay Rays	+5	57.5	4.0	3.4
6.	St. Louis Cardinals	–	56.1	4.6	4.1
7.	Los Angeles Angels	-2	55.9	4.8	4.2
8.	Detroit Tigers	-1	53.5	4.5	4.2
9.	Oakland Athletics	-1	53.4	3.9	3.5
10.	Philadelphia Phillies	+7	53.1	4.2	4.0
	Team	Change	Win Pct	RS/G	RA/G
11.	Pittsburgh Pirates	+4	52.4	4.1	3.9
12.	Milwaukee Brewers	+2	51.9	4.7	4.5
13.	Atlanta Braves	-4	51.0	4.2	3.9
14.	New York Mets	-1	50.7	4.2	4.2
15.	Baltimore Orioles	+4	50.6	4.0	4.0
16.	Chicago White Sox	-4	50.3	4.1	4.0
17.	San Francisco Giants	-6	50.0	4.1	4.1
18.	Arizona Diamondbacks	+3	49.3	4.2	4.2
19.	Los Angeles Dodgers	-3	49.0	3.9	4.0
20.	Miami Marlins	–	48.0	3.9	4.1
	Team	Change	Win Pct	RS/G	RA/G
21.	Toronto Blue Jays	-3	47.6	3.9	4.2
22.	San Diego Padres	–	46.3	3.9	4.3
23.	Seattle Mariners	+4	46.1	3.4	3.7
24.	Kansas City Royals	+1	45.5	4.0	4.3
25.	Minnesota Twins	-2	45.5	4.1	4.5
26.	Boston Red Sox	-2	44.8	4.1	4.6
27.	Cleveland Indians	+1	41.6	3.9	4.6
28.	Colorado Rockies	-2	41.2	4.5	5.3
29.	Chicago Cubs	–	36.4	3.7	5.1
30.	Houston Astros	–	35.3	3.5	4.9

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