Predicting the Philadelphia Phillies’ Opening Day 25-Man Roster for 2013

The Philadelphia Phillies are having the kind of season that already has fans looking forward to next year. 

So while the Phillies try and make an improbable run back into the postseason race here in 2012, it certainly isn’t too soon to take a look at the roster moving forward and try and make sense of what the Phillies 25-man roster could look like on Opening Day 2013. 

Some of the names are obvious. The Phillies have made big commitments to guys like Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon, and those guys aren’t going anywhere. 

However, the Phillies also made a couple of deals at the trade deadline involving guys like Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence in an attempt to free up some space under the luxury tax for flexibility this winter. 

Some of the guys on next year’s roster are already here. Others are in the minor leagues. Even more are on the free agent and trade markets. 

One thing is for certain: If the Phillies are going to win in 2013, they’ll need to be creative in some areas of the roster.

Here’s what they should do. 

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Phillies Free Agency: Best Ways to Improve Bullpen Heading into Next Year

Is there a slight chance of postseason glory for the Philadelphia Phillies? Absolutely. But are the odds in their favor? Absolutely not.

At this point, barring any significant hot streak, the Phillies are looking ahead to 2013 and this offseason will be a big determining factor in whether the Phils can regain their former glory next year. GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. will have many holes to fill, including third base, center field, one or both of the corner outfield spots, a starting pitcher and a proven veteran or two in the bullpen.

While the positional decisions will almost surely be prioritized, a portion of the team that can’t be forgotten is the bullpen. It’s undoubtedly been the Phillies’ biggest weakness this season. The team’s 4.44 bullpen ERA ranks 26th out of 30 teams in the majors, and the AL team with the worst bullpen record, the Cleveland Indians, sit only at 4.07 and two spots ahead of the Fightins’. That’s when you know there’s a problem.

As free agency approaches, the Phillies will have to make sure that improving the bullpen is not at the bottom of their offseason shopping list. They do have almost too many relievers waiting in the wings in the minor leagues, and although a good number of them will be given the opportunity to contribute, the Phillies also need a proven veteran aside from Jonathan Papelbon.

Without further ado, here are the best ways the Phillies can improve their bullpen going forward via free agency.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Jimmy Rollins’ 2,000 Hits Part of His Enigmatic Equation

The newest member of the Philadelphia Phillies‘ 2,000-hit club is a very hard player to define.  Jimmy Rollins is, and is not, a lot of things.

“J-Roll” has been the Phillies’ undisputed leadoff man for the significant majority of the past 12 seasons, the last five of which saw his team make the playoffs and included a pennant and a World Series title.

He is not, though, a “leadoff” hitter.  His career batting average is .270, which would not be such a problem except that his career on-base percentage is .328. 

In a career where he more often than not got 700-plus plate appearances per season, he has never drawn more than 58 walks in a year.

Leadoff hitters get on base any way they can.  Even despite 2011 and 2012 statistical lines that have dulled his brilliance, Ichiro Suzuki’s career on-base percentage is .365.  Yes, his career average is .322, and yes, that certainly explains some of the difference.  But then, Ichiro put the ball on the ground and exploited his speed, something Rollins only seems to do when he feels like it.

Rollins has speed.  He has 398 stolen bases against just 83 times caught stealing, a success rate of just below 80 percent.

But Rollins is not a “basestealer.”  He has led the National League in stolen bases only once, in his first full season in 2001.  He has never been the type who could steal 60-plus bases for three consecutive years like Jose Reyes (2005-2007) or for that matter lead the league in steals for years in a row (Reyes and Michael Bourn).

Rollins has pop.  He has hit 30 home runs in a season (during his glorious 2007 Most Valuable Player campaign) and has 10 double-digit home-run years in the record books.

But he is not a “power hitter,” much as he would like to be.  Tallying 187 home runs in 7,395 career at-bats is a home run every 39.5 at-bats.  As an example, Troy Tulowitzki has 130 home runs—in 2,813 at-bats.

Rollins is a very good defensive shortstop.  He has three Gold Gloves to his credit (2007-2009) and a career fielding percentage of .983.  Probably his defense had as much to do with the Phillies’ willingness to sign him to his current three-year contract extension as did his marginally declining offensive skills.

But he is not an elite defensive player, in the manner of Ozzie Smith or Omar Vizquel.  Or even Derek Jeter, who has five Gold Gloves despite playing short left field for the past few years.

And while Jeter is being mentioned, it has to be said: Rollins is the leader of the Phillies, but to call him a “leader” is probably stretching the meaning of the word.

Rollins leads the Phillies because when he plays well, they play well.  His 2007 MVP season was not coincidentally the team’s first playoff appearance in 14 years.  In 2009, Rollins led the league in plate appearances and at-bats and scored 100 runs while also collecting that third Gold Glove.

But “leaders” do not have multiple incidents of failing to run out ground balls and pop-ups.  “Leaders” do not show up late to the stadium without a reason.  Basically, leaders do not put their managers in no-win situations (bench the player and hurt the team, or excuse the offense and look weak.)

For that matter, leaders do not put their teammates in the awkward position of having to answer questions about their own poor choices.

The enigma that is Rollins extends into the stands.  He famously chided Phillies’ fans for being “too quiet” during Game 2 of the 2011 National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals.  But when fans booed him for not running out a pop-up last week, well, he had a lot less to say.  “Hell no,” Rollins replied to interrogating reporters. “(Manuel) already told you what happened. There you go.”

That’s not “I made a mistake and I will do better going forward,” is it?

Even if Rollins only plays the next two seasons guaranteed on his current contract, he projects easily to pass Mike Schmidt (2,234) for the all-time Phillies lead in hits.  If he can play five more seasons, 2,500 hits and a ticket to the Hall of Fame become real possibilities.

Perhaps only then will Phillies fans finally know what sort of player Jimmy Rollins really was. 

Because, even at this late date, it is still pretty hard to know.

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Jonathan Papelbon: How He Nailed the Coffin Shut for 2012 Phils

Nothing has gone right for the Phillies in 2012.

Besides the seasons from Carlos Ruiz and Cole Hamels, there really isn’t anything great that you can say about the 2012 Phillies. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard missed entirely too much time, and the team was a shell by the time they came back. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Vance Worley and Antonio Bastardo all vastly underperformed this season. Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence didn’t even survive the trade deadline.

Having said all this, there is one player on the roster who may bear the most responsibility for the Phillies’ irrelevance this season. His name? Jonathan Papelbon.

Cinco Ocho himself.

Yes, the richest reliever in baseball history made the difference this season.

After signing a  four-year, $50 million contract this past winter, Papelbon is 3-6 with a 3.02 ERA in his first season as a Phillie. He is also 30-for-34 in save opportunities, with three of those blown saves resulting in Phillies losses.

Had he converted those three opportunities, as he certainly gets paid handsomely to do, the Phillies would be sitting at 68-67 and five games out of the wild card.

But let’s take it a step further.

On four other occasions, Pap was brought into a tie game and allowed the other team to score, resulting in Phillies losses. Had he held onto the tie and the Phillies had come back to win half those games, the Phillies would be 70-65 and only three games out of the wild card.

Another 102-win season was not in the cards. Again, the Phillies had problems this year, were decimated by injuries and had a run of bad luck. It hurts, but it’s acceptable.

But a $50 million relief pitcher being the reason you’re out of the hunt? That is unacceptable.

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Can Phillies ‘Big Three’ Still Win a World Series Together in Philadelphia?

When the Phillies made the blockbuster signing of one of the best righties in baseball, their rotation got better. When they made yet another blockbuster and jaw-dropping signing of one of the craftiest pitchers currently in the game the next year, their rotation improved that much more.

Finally, when the team sat by and watched their homegrown star develop into a full-blown ace and one of the best lefties in the game, well, that was when they knew they had something special.

Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee. Cole Hamels.

Just hearing those three names in unison, knowing that during any given series you could face not one or two but all three of them, is certainly something that would strike fear into any opponent.

The Big Three, as they are frequently called, proved to be exactly as advertised last year as all of them, on strong pitching performances all season long, finished in the top five of the NL Cy Young voting. Not surprisingly on the heels of the great years by these three, the Phillies finished the season with a franchise-best 102 wins and won their fourth consecutive division title.

The problem however was that this regular season success did not translate into the playoffs. While Cliff Lee did struggle a bit in his start, the loss by the Phillies in the NLDS was clearly not to blame all on the pitchers.

With a shaky offense effectively ending their 2011 playoff run, it is a wonder if their top three aces will be enough. Also, with just Hamels locked up long-term, Halladay’s injury keeping him from qualifying for his vesting option and the team willing to consider trading Lee by placing him on waivers, it is only a matter of time before this triumvirate of aces is broken up.

The only question remaining then, is can the aces can still win a World Series while they are together in Philadelphia?

You Have to Score Runs to Win Games

As Cliff Lee learned earlier this year, even when you pitch your absolute best and even when you give up zero runs in 10 innings, it is still possible to see your team lose the game.

For pitchers, recording a performance like Lee’s which truly was one of near perfection and downright dominance, is the goal of every outing. The problem is however that even if the pitcher goes the distance it doesn’t get them anywhere if the offense is lulled to sleep.

For Lee, this was not the first nor the last time this season that one of his pitching gems was wasted. In fact, it is part of the reason why he has just four wins and enough no decisions to count on one hand that definitely should have gone into the win column.

Lee is not the only one, however, who has seen pitching gems wasted by a lack of scoring. All of the members of the starting staff have and all of their records have been affected by it as well.

Now records don’t mean anything but individual awards are something all three of these aces have won. Hamels has a World Series MVP, Lee has a Cy Young and Halladay has two, one in each league. What these great records haven’t given these players however is a World Series ring as a team.

If the Phillies hope to get another World Series, they are going to have to help out their aces. Yes, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley missed significant time this year and yes, they are a big part of their team’s offensive run production but still, the Phils need to get themselves another power bat.

With Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino gone, the Phils lost two skill players who could provide both power and speed. Both also hit righty, with Victorino also being able to switch-hit.

Missing that right-handed bat in the middle of the line-up is something that the Phillies need to address and something they could fix with a free-agent signing.

In addition to another power bat, the Phillies just need guys who can score runs consistently. Too many times this season have there been players left on base and in scoring position with less than two outs. Plain and simple, they need to score these runs.

They have the starting staff to win division titles and playoff games, but they need to give them some run support if they hope to get that done.

What About the Bullpen?

Ah, the bullpen, something that fans and the starters alike have found themselves shuddering at the thought most times this season.

Once a point of consistency, filled with guys from top to bottom, long man to closer, that could and more often than not did get the job done, the pen is now a huge and glaring source of concern. With a handful of rookies and disappointing players, the not-well-assembled pen has cost this team games.

Don’t believe me?

Ask Cole Hamels, who saw a sure-fire win slip through his hands when the most sure thing in the bullpen, Jonathan Papelbon, blew a ninth-inning save to cost him the win, not once but twice.

Ask Cliff Lee, who attempted to stay in games as long as possible so that he would have a chance to get wins, which have come at a premium for him this year.

Ask Roy Halladay, who like Hamels’ has seen leads vanquish when the bullpen enters the game.

Heck, even ask Kyle Kendrick, who despite a successful season watched yet another solid performance turn to dust as Antonio Bastardo gave up a grand slam after Kendrick pitched to a 0-0 tie.

All of the guys that have started this season, from Halladay to Joe Blanton, had to at least once watch the bullpen blow a win for them. The Phillies as a team also had to watch the bullpen time and time again turn a win into a loss.

Take, for example, the last game of a very pivotal series full of playoff implications against the Atlanta Braves. Once again, Hamels pitched a great game. He worked his way in and out of trouble but ultimately only gave up one run in seven innings.

The Phillies had a 7-1 lead with just two innings remaining. They put in Jeremy Horst who has probably been one of the slight bright spots for the pen this year. He gave up a walk and then 3B Kevin Frandsen committed a costly error.

Still, when Horst was pulled and Papelbon put in, the Phils still had a lead and one that their highly-paid closer should have been able to hold down.

He didn’t.

As Chipper Jones hit a walk-off home run, the Phillies could only wonder “what if” as the Braves celebrated the improbable comeback win.

Mark my words, if the Phillies do not complete their gargantuan quest to reach a .500 mark and even more likely to make the playoffs, they will remember this game as a key reason as to why.

The Team is Rebuilding

Unfortunately for the three aces, their assembling has not brought about the glory and postseason success that many hoped for. Because of this and because of the offensive struggles, Ruben Amaro was forced to sell this season, further breaking up a core that had already lost some of its key players.

With this, tons of no-names and second level players have filled out the roster all season. Names like Erik Kratz, Kevin Frandsen and recently Tyler Cloyd have gone from Ironpigs to Phillies, the Domonic Brown experiment has continued and to mixed results, and of course, major league veterans Ty Wigginton, Laynce Nix and Juan Pierre have been used frequently throughout the season.

It isn’t the fault of the pitching that so many offensive players got injured or just didn’t come through in the clutch but it is something that has affected them. With young guys and new names on the team, this is not a roster that is built for a World Series run. It is one that although Amaro won’t say it, is rebuilding.

Can the Aces Still Win a World Series in Philadelphia?

There are a lot of things in place working against the potential for the Phillies’ aces to win another World Series within a five year window.

First off, they are running out of time.

As I mentioned earlier, only Hamels has a contract that will keep in him in Phillies pinstripes for another five years. He is locked up until 2018 with a team option for 2019. The move to sign him to this deal showed what his role would be in the Phillies’ plan. They want him as their ace, even if it means moving on from the other two stellar pitchers on the team.

Halladay’s contract is up in 2013 but when it was first signed, the vesting option for 2014 seemed all but a foregone conclusion. With his injury, however, it does appear that it will be very difficult for him to meet the innings requirements for him to get the extra year.

That said, he isn’t getting any younger and even if this season is just a fluke, the Phillies would not be making a smart move by inking Halladay to another long-term deal.

Unless Halladay is so determined to finish his career as a Phillie that he will sign for less money and fewer years, then it is very likely the team could be saying goodbye to him at the end of next season.

The Phillies have Lee until at least 2015 but if they repeat their performance from this year, he could be gone in a move to get solid trade pieces in return.

Assuming Halladay does not in fact qualify for his option that would mean the aces would have to win the World Series this or next year, neither of which seems particular likely.

In addition to the time running down, there are also the elements of placing a team capable of playing solid offense behind them.

Part of the problem with this, however, is that these three pitchers are occupying quite a large sum of available contract money the Phillies have to work with.

Add to this the monster salaries due to Utley, Howard and Papelbon and the money they are likely now going to have to pay Carlos Ruiz to keep him a Phillie, then it doesn’t leave the Phils too many options in the free-agent market.

They did cut money by trading Pence, Victorino and Blanton and could save even more money by giving entry-level contracts to Kratz and Frandsen next season.

Still, it is going to be tough to get another star on the available money they have to spend and the vast amount of positions, especially in the bullpen, they need to fill.

Then, of course, there are the other teams that need to be considered.

For the most part, the Phils have remained stagnant since 2008. Sure they have had incredible regular seasons but in terms of the playoffs, they have gotten worse by the round with each year.

On the inverse, teams like Washington and Atlanta have gotten much better and that is just to speak for two of the teams in the Phillies’ own division.

Over the next couple of years it is going to become increasingly difficult for the Phils just to win the NL East not to mention deal with the rest of the National and American league.

The Yankees are still there, the Orioles, Rangers, Tigers, Angels and Athletics just to name a few have improved vastly and then there are the Dodgers, Reds, Cardinals and Giants among others that the Phils would have to deal with to get out of the NLCS.

Essentially, it is not going to be easy.

So looking at all of these factors, it does not seem that the aces will all be smiling in a picture taken as the three of them lift the World Series trophy. While I do think it is possible for the Phils to go on a bit of a miracle run in 2013, to close out their five-year window with another title, I just don’t know if it is probable.

Still, the team has always had fight and these three pitchers are some of the most determined players in all of baseball. Lee and Halladay want that World Series Championship more than anyone and Hamels no doubt wants to etch his name as part of one of the best rotations of all-time.

If all of the pieces fall into place, it could happen. But then again in baseball, anything can happen. 

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Odds of All 25 Philadelphia Phillies Mailing It In for the Season’s Final Month

Fans like to think that professional athletes never even think about “mailing it in” early, but the reality is that it happens all the time. 

Sometimes we forget that professional athletes are human at their core. There’s a human element involved in any competition, even at a professional level, and the Philadelphia Phillies are involved in a unique situation. 

They were supposed to win this season. 

Of course, they haven’t done much winning at all. The Phillies have been plagued with injuries and inconsistency and haven’t gotten on much of a roll. They’re all but mathematically eliminated from the postseason, and the question has changed. 

What’s next? 

The Phillies haven’t played a meaningless September in a long time. This is a roster full of veteran players accustomed to winning ball games. What are they going to do when there is nothing on the line? 

It would be very uncharacteristic for some players on this team to essentially “cave in,” but others have shown a willingness to do so in the past. Some have their hands tied. They’re going to have to mail it in early to rest or let other guys play. 

We’ll rate the roster on a three-level scale for this slide show: low, moderate and high. 

I think those ratings are pretty self explanatory, with “low” being a player most likely to give it everything he has in the final month and “high” being a player who has already conceded. 

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Can the Philadelphia Phillies Bounce Back in 2013 with the Same Roster?

Phillies fans and baseball experts knew what talent the Phillies had before the season started, which is why they were the pick by many to represent the National League in the World Series.  

The starting rotation was loaded, the offense had some pop and would propel the Phillies to the playoffs once Chase Utley and Ryan Howard returned, and the bullpen was anchored by arguably the best closer in the league. It was a no-brainer picking the Phillies to win the National League East for the sixth straight year.

But, of course, the season didn’t go according to plan. We all know the story, I don’t need to go through it again.

Looking ahead to 2013, can the Phillies be threats in the East with the roster they have now?  If Ruben Amaro, Jr. decided that he was going to hold on to all of his cash until next offseason, would the Phillies still be competitive in 2013?

Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are crucial to the Phillies 2013 success. Both pitchers are Cy Young-caliber, but neither pitched anywhere near their potential this season. If those two can bounce back, then the entire pitching staff becomes a strong suit for the Phillies once again. With Halladay and Lee would be Cole Hamels, Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick. If those five guys pitch to their potential, that could be one of the best rotations in baseball.

Carlos Ruiz will be back and healthy playing in a contract year next season. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley will be with the team from the start as well, and are both also capable of having bounce back years.

Jimmy Rollins needs to have a big 2013 season if he wants Philadelphia to stay on his side, which every player should want.  

 

Rounding out the infield is Kevin Frandsen at third, since Placido Polanco will be gone to free agency. Frandsen has shown this season that he is capable of playing third for the Phillies.

Outfield would be the biggest concern for the 2013 Phillies. Domonic Brown, John Mayberry Jr. and Nate Schierholtz would be the starters, which would be very difficult to convince fans it’s an acceptable outfield.

The bullpen would once again be an issue in 2013 if the Phillies didn’t make any moves. Jonathan Papelbon will be back to shut the door in the ninth, but there still isn’t a reliable player to maintain leads.

Josh Lindblom has been a disappointment since coming from the Dodgers, and everyone else has been just as bad. Michael Stutes will be back in 2013, so that is a small boost for one of the league’s worst bullpens.

With their current roster, could the Phillies bounce back in 2013? Actually, yes.

But, to be fair, bounce back doesn’t mean win 100 games. Bounce back doesn’t even mean win 90 games.

With their current roster, the Phillies could win close to 90 games next year. The pitching will win games instead of lose games like it did this year. With a rotation like the Phillies have, they are absolutely contenders next year.

However, between 80-90 wins might not be good enough for a playoff spot, so Ruben Amaro should just play it safe and change the roster up a bit.  

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