Philadelphia Phillies: Who Is Your Center Fielder? B.J. Upton or Michael Bourn?

With the 2012 offseason only a week or so away, Ruben Amaro Jr. and his staff will be looking to make a big offseason splash through free agency. Their number one priority being a top-tier center fielder.

When the Phillies shipped Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence out of town this past July, they did so to free up some money to rebuild their outfield for 2013 with players who display more consistency. After leaving Philadelphia, Victorino hit .245 and Pence hit .219—numbers that are anything but consistent.  

With center field being the Phillies’ biggest concern, they have their eyes set on the two of the most prized players at the position: former Phillie Michael Bourn and free-agent-to-be B.J. Upton. 

Bourn is a player who can bring excitement to the top of a batting order and also plays exceptional defense. He won Gold Glove awards in 2009 and 2010. If acquired, Charlie Manuel’s love affair with Jimmy Rollins batting leadoff will hopefully come to an end.

Bourn had a 2012 season that was mostly consistent with all of his career offensive numbers. He hit .274 while scoring 96 runs and led the NL in stolen bases with 42. He also finished the season seventh in walks with 70.

There are two major concerns with the Phillies acquiring Bourn. One being his amount of strikeouts.

Bourn struck out a career-high 155 times in 2012—not really an admirable quality for a leadoff hitter. However, his amount of walks somewhat balanced out his on-base percentage (.348).

The other concern is the amount of dollars Bourn is going to cost on the open market. Super agent Scott Boras represents Bourn and has a reputation for relentlessly pursuing top dollar for all of his clients. He and Ruben Amaro also don’t have the best history since the Ryan Madson deal blew up last offseason.

Bourn will turn 30 in December, and the Phillies don’t want to have another long contract with an aging player attached to it added to their ever-expanding payroll. The Phillies will seek a four- to five-year deal for Bourn, from anywhere between $10 and $15 million. 

Another top choice to man the center of the Phillies’ outfield in 2013 is 28-year-old former Tampa Bay Ray, B.J. Upton.

The two major differences between Upton and Bourn are Upton’s power and Bourn‘s Gold Glove defense. Both have good speed, strike out a lot and can bring a ton of energy to a team.

Upton hit 28 home runs in 2012 while batting just .242. Upton has not hit over .270 since 2008 and has consistently struck out at or around 160 times a season over his career. He has also never driven in more than 82 runs in a given season.

Could he produce more in Citizens Bank Park? Only time will tell.  

The Phillies are in desperate need of a right-handed power bat, but what they don’t need is another player with a low on-base percentage. Upton’s was only .298 in 2012, after only walking 45 times all season.

The Phillies have a lot of options to weigh. If they want right-handed, long-ball power and RBI production, the choice would be Upton.

If they want Gold Glove-caliber defense, with speed and a true leadoff hitter, the choice is Bourn.

Or they can go a totally different way and try to sign a player such as Angel Pagan.

My choice would be to bring back Michael Bourn and let him set the table for Utley, Howard and hopefully Darin Ruf. The Phillies are most likely going to overpay for him, but at the end of the day he may be the best fit for the Phillies.

He plays Gold Glove-caliber defense, hits for a decent average and is among the league leaders in walks and stolen bases. If the Phillies can help Bourn cut down on his strikeouts, Bourn could be an All-Star in 2013 and hopefully lead the Phillies back to the playoffs. 

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Chances of Each Top 25 Free Agent Ending Up with the Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have holes to fill this offseason and everyone knows it. 

Then again, it’s not much of a secret. This is a team that fell out of contention at last season’s trade deadline and moved a couple of nicely sized salaries off of the books to free up some space under the luxury tax. 

But they’re not going to roll over. There is too much invested in the players already on the payroll. The Phillies have the talent to complete, but if they truly want to contend, they’re going to need some help. 

Ruben Amaro Jr. and company are going to have to get creative to fill those holes. They’ll explore the trade market, but given the state of the Phillies’ payroll and farm system, I think it is much more likely that you will see a free agent signing or two. 

The Phillies have the money to make a splash, but will they? This slideshow will explore the possibility of the best of the free agent market signing with the Phillies this winter.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Trading Lee, Halladay or Worley Necessary to Even Scale

The Philadelphia Phillies have approached the last two seasons trying to win a championship with a lopsided team.

Particularly in 2011, when “the Four Aces” were projected by many to win 80 games by themselves, the Phillies figured that if their pitchers held opponents down routinely, the diminished offensive output coming from Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and the Phillies’ other aging core starters could be covered over.

It worked until 2012, and then it did not work at all. It turns out there are only so many days you can play Ty Wigginton, John Mayberry Jr. and Kevin Frandsen (and bat them near the middle of the order) without seeing the offense shrivel up and blow away.

So the Phillies enter this offseason with as many offensive positions in question as they have offensive positions solidly filled. Third base is a need, as is the entire outfield. Going into the 2013 season with Darin Ruf and Domonic Brown penciled in as starters would be inviting disaster. 

In past seasons, the Phillies were able to patch the holes in the lineup through free agency. Unfortunately, the more you look at the free-agent landscape this offseason, the less there is to like.

The headliners on offense are all outfielders. Josh Hamilton is probably the biggest name. His production is not in question. But can you remember an established superstar hitting free agency with more questions surrounding him than Hamilton? Put aside (if you can) his troubled past with drug use.

In the past four seasons with the Texas Rangers, Hamilton has missed an astonishing 157 games. Couple that with his underwhelming postseason numbers (.227 batting average, .414 slugging percentage) and the thought of guaranteeing Hamilton generational money looks as dubious as some of his life choices.

B.J. Upton will be available. He piles up three things: home runs, stolen bases and strikeouts (1,020 of them in 3,568 at-bats). His .256 career batting average compiled over seven seasons suggests that that is what he is. No question he has value; power/speed combo players like Upton are not plentiful. Is he worth five years and $80 million, though? 

Former Phillie Michael Bourn is out there, too. He is a two-time All-Star (most recently this season with the Atlanta Braves). But a lot of his value is tied up in his speed. He stole 42 bases this season; he was also caught a league-leading 13 times.

And the ongoing disaster that is Carl Crawford since he signed for seven years and $142 million is the cautionary tale that might make Bourn less attractive as a target for a long-term, long money deal.

So if the Phillies cannot just go shopping to fill their positions of need, they might need to part with assets in trades. As the team’s 2012 offensive performance exhibited, the Phillies do not have bats to deal.

They still have arms, though.

Cole Hamels is not going anywhere, not after signing a six-year, $144 million contract extension this summer. Understandably, the Phillies identified Hamels as a home-grown talent who the fans have an attachment to. He was the Most Valuable Player of the only World Series win this generation of Phillies fans has seen.

After Hamels, though, the Phillies do have some pieces. As tempting as it may be to have a rotation of Hamels/Cliff Lee/Roy Halladay/Vance Worley with Kyle Kendrick and Tyler Cloyd holding down the fifth spot, it might be impractical given the team’s offensive needs.

This is not to suggest that any one of Lee, Halladay or Worley alone could bring back a young, inexpensive talent.

Lee is the best pitcher of the three; he is also owed the most money over the longest term ($75 million over the next three seasons). Halladay is in the last year of his current contract, but he will get $20 million this season, and he is coming off an indifferent season where he missed time with injury. Worley also had an iffy season and was also hurt. But he is only 25, and not even arbitration-eligible until 2014.

For that matter, the Phillies might want to dangle Cloyd and see if anyone has interest.

Until the World Series is over and teams are free to start signing players all the scenarios posited by baseball scribes are idle speculation. Will the Arizona Diamondbacks trade Justin Upton? Will the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim alleviate their logjam in the outfield and part with Peter Bourjos? That depends on what those teams are offered, obviously.

The point here is that the Phillies must be willing to break from their “pitching first” agenda to rebuild their everyday eight. Moving a big-name pitcher like Lee or Halladay, or an inexpensive option like Worley or even Cloyd, may be the best way to get where they need to go.

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Best Case Scenario for 2013? Emulate the 2010 Phillies

The trouble Phillies fans have with the team they have now is that it is not the team they used to have.

The offensive numbers the Phillies used to put up are, in the context of what the team looks like going into the 2012 offseason, patently absurd.

Let’s start with Ryan Howard. You probably remember that Ryan Howard once hit 58 home runs in a season. He drove in 149 runs that year. He was the National League’s Most Valuable Player.

What you may not remember is that that year was 2006. The Phillies did not even make the playoffs in 2006. But Howard’s breakout season signaled a new era in Phillies’ baseball, an era where the team’s hitters would start making better use of the bandbox dimensions of Citizens’ Bank Park.

The Phillies made the playoffs in 2007 for the first time in fourteen seasons. Howard went off again, with 47 home runs and 136 RBI. Chase Utley had his true “here I am” campaign, hitting .332 with 22 home runs and 103 RBI despite missing 29 games (an omen, sadly.) They both had great years, but 2007 was Jimmy Rollins’ MVP season: .296, 30 home runs, 94 runs batted in and an astounding 139 runs scored.

In 2008, another 48 home runs and 146 RBI for Howard, another 33 home runs and 104 RBI for Utley. Rollins stole 47 bases. Video game stuff and a World Series title.

The Phillies fell short of a successful world championship defense in 2009, but the pennant was not all bad, and it certainly was not for a lack of offense. Howard had another monster season with 45 home runs and 141 RBI, Utley was in with 31 and 93.

And they started getting it from different places. Raul Ibanez hit 34 home runs and drove in 93. Jayson Werth (in the season that probably convinced the Washington Nationals to give him his current crazy contract) hit 36 home runs, drove in 99 runs, scored 98 more and stole 20 bases for good measure.

“Enough,” I hear you saying. “Yeah, that was all fun, but those guys are gone now.”

Yes, they are. Which is why, if you are going to hold out hope for the 2013 Phillies, you have to hope they can get it done the way the 2010 Phillies did.

The Phillies won 97 games in 2010, good enough to win the National League East by six games. By comparison, the Washington Nationals were slobbered over for winning 98 games this season. Unlike the prior four seasons, though, the 2010 Phillies could not rely on MVP candidates and breakout years. They had to patch it together.

Can they do something similar in 2013? Let’s see.

Howard hit .276 with 31 home runs and 108 RBI in 2010. The average probably will not be there, but given a full, healthy season, the counting stats should be very similar.

Utley hit .275 with 16 home runs and 65 RBI in 115 games in 2010. Granted, that might be the best he can do in 2013. But he is playing for his baseball life with his contract ending. If anyone is properly motivated on the 2013 Phillies, it is Utley.

Ibanez hit .275 with 16 home runs and 83 RBI in 2010. Can Darin Ruf give you something similar? Can Domonic Brown? Maybe not. But Delmon Young is a free agent after this season, he does not figure to break the bank, and his 2012 slash line was .267/18/74. Hmmm.

Rollins hit .243 in 2010 and missed almost half the regular season with injuries. He will be at least that good and, if 2012 is any indication, he will be much better.

The 2013 Phillies will miss Shane Victorino, sure. But Victorino‘s 2010 season was pretty mediocre: .259/18/69. If they do not break the bank on B.J. Upton, can the Phillies squeeze that out of a John Mayberry Jr./Domonic Brown platoon?

All that said, there are still two fairly significant components the 2010 team had that the 2013 as of this writing just does not. Werth was solid again with .296/27/95. And Placido Polanco had his last decent season, hitting a punchless-but-dependable .298.

The answer there may need to come from outside the organization. Chase Headley is on track to waste his prime with the San Diego Padres after going for .286/31/113 while playing half his games in cavernous Petco Park.

If the Phillies could find a way to extract Headley, they could count on him to replicate Werth‘s 2010 numbers and live with an inexpensive light-hitting right fielder or center fielder. Dexter Fowler?

And no, I am not going to address the pitching. All of the foregoing assumes that the Phillies will get something like 85-100 healthy, productive starts from Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, and that Jonathan Papelbon will still be a reliable (if unspectacular) closer.

Why am I assuming that? Because save for Halladay’s anomaly of a season, none of them gave any reason to think they will not be what they have been. Questionable as Halladay was, he still won 11 of his 25 starts in 2012.

So no, the 2013 Phillies are never going to look like the offensive juggernauts of the end of the last decade.

But that does not mean they do not have one last run left with this team.

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25 Most Beloved Teammates in Philadelphia Phillies History

When the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series in 2008, they weren’t the best team in the game. That’s not a knock against a very good team. Just a fact. 

So when people look back at the 2008 season and try and figure out why they won, some are inclined to chalk it up to luck, but it was much more than that, and it began long before the ’08 season. 

What the Phillies had that season was good chemistry. They had been building the core of the club for years and you would think that the ’08 season was just a stepping stone, but it wasn’t. 

That team won the World Series because they knew how to play as a cohesive unit. Some of the best “clubhouse characters” in the game played on that team, from the enigmatic Jimmy Rollins to the silent leader Chase Utley.

In my personal opinion, it is immensely important to assemble a team that can mesh together. That’s why I wanted to take a look at some of the best and beloved “teammates” in Phillies history—guys who other people wanted to play with. 

Some of the results are surprising. Others you’d expect to see here. One thing is for certain—they’d make one hell of a team.

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Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees Share Troubling Similarities

Watching the disintegration of the 2012 New York Yankees in this postseason, aside from being sort of a joyful exercise for many, has brought back a lot of ugly recent postseason memories for Phillies fans.

The Yankees are down 0-3 to the Detroit Tigers in the American League Championship Series primarily because the offense that was second in the major leagues in runs scored during the regular season has scored one run in the past two games. That run came in the ninth inning of Game 3 on a solo home run from Derek Jeter‘s backup.

It is not as though the Yankees beat the Baltimore Orioles up in the Division Series, either. But for unexpected heroics from Raul Ibanez, the Yankees would not have reached the ALCS at all. The Yankees are hitting an even .200 as a team through eight playoff games. More shockingly, they are slugging an absurdly low .317.

To Phillies fans, this smacks of getting shut out at home in Game 5 of the 2011 National League Division Series to lose to the St. Louis Cardinals. And it is not far removed from scoring a scant two runs at home in a Game 6 loss in the 2010 National League Championship Series to the San Francisco Giants.

Big payroll teams failing to hit in the playoffs.

That is not all the Yankees and the Phillies have in common these days.

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Who Should Be the Philadelphia Phillies’ Opening Day Starter in 2013?

After an inconsistent 2012 season, the Philadelphia Phillies have a ton of questions going into next season. The Phillies have holes at third base, in their bullpen and every single outfield position is still up in the air.

One question most seem to be over looking is what will the order of the Phillies starting pitching rotation look like in 2013. Most importantly, who will be named the starting pitcher on opening day come April 1.

The Phillies will open the season on the road against the Atlanta Braves, another team who will be going through an abundant amount of changes come next season. Outfielder Michael Bourn is a prized free agent and third baseman Chipper Jones will be enjoying retirement.

Do the Phillies continue with their trend of the past few seasons and start Roy Halladay?

Halladay battled injuries since spring training and was never really the dominant force he had been in the past. He only started 25 games in 2012 and threw only 156.1 innings—his lowest totals since 2005. Halladay also posted his highest ERA since 2000 (4.49).

Hopefully a longer offseason will benefit Halladay and he can come back strong in 2013.

Another opening day starter option is Cliff Lee, who despite having a 6-9 record, pitched extremely well in 2012.

Lee finished seventh in the NL in innings pitched (211), fourth in strikeouts (207), ninth in ERA (3.16) and sixth in WHIP (1.11).

If Lee gets the nod, pitching coach Rich Dubee could go with a Lee, Halladay and Hamels rotation to split up his lefties.

The man I believe should start on opening is Cole Hamels, who is fresh off signing his six year, $144 million contract that will keep him in Phillies’ pinstripes until at least 2018. He is also coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Going 17-6 in 215.1 innings pitched with an ERA of 3.05.

Hamels finished in the Top Ten in almost every single NL pitching category. He was fifth in wins (17), sixth in innings pitched (215.1), third in strikeouts (216), eight in ERA (3.05), seventh in WHIP (1.12) and fourth in complete games with two.

Hamels has developed into one of the best left-handed pitchers in the game, and with Roy Halladay entering the tail end of his career, it is time for Hamels to take back the No. 1 spot in the Phillies’ rotation.

The next question Dubee will have to answer is who will man the second spot, Halladay or Lee? A tough decision to say the least, but the Phillies will most likely want to split the two up.

Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick will most likely be the fourth and fifth starters baring an offseason trade. 

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25 Greatest Outfielders in Philadelphia Phillies History

Here are a couple of things that you will hear a lot about during the offseason: the Philadelphia Phillies and outfielders. 

Why? Well, there is just a mutual need. Gone are the days when the Phillies could pencil in a regular at all three outfield slots, and in are the days where the Phillies are in desperate need of a center fielder, are handing the reigns over to a guy who has been more potential than success at another spot and who knows what in the other. 

Kind of makes you want to look back at some of this organization’s better outfielders, doesn’t it? 

The Phillies are an interesting franchise insofar as that the majority of their greatest all-time position players are outfielders—including some recent names that make sense, some really old ones that may ring a bell and everything in between. 

So, who’s the greatest? Only one way to find out. 

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Predicting the Philadelphia Phillies’ Lineup in 2 Years

Entering an offseason with many question marks ahead, the Philadelphia Phillies have some holes to fill. They have a major outfield vacancy, specifically in center field. Their third base situation is also sketchy. And a veteran reliever or two certainly wouldn’t hurt after the younger relievers showed this past year that they can’t handle the workload by themselves.

All those holes will be filled in a matter of weeks. But what about two years from now? Where will the Phillies stand heading into…say, 2015?

Perhaps that’s a bit to far away to judge. Trades, free agency signings and the like are bound to happen, so what will be predicted in this slideshow and what will realistically occur are probably going to be very different from one another.

Some of the current Phillies under contract will still be around for 2015. Others will have moved on to other teams, while some may have even retired. There’s also prospects who could be promoted by then. Since both the players and even the manager could be different by 2015, who bats where, per se, will not be predicted; rather, who is playing where is what will be determined.

So, without further ado, here is the projected 2015 Opening Day lineup for the Philadelphia Phillies.

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Philadephia Phillies: 5 Less Outside-the-Box Trade Ideas

Earlier this week I wrote an article suggesting some very outside-the-box, crazy trade ideas.  Most centered around well-known players with expensive contracts, and I understood that all were unlikely to occur.  However, after the backlash I received—more than one person questioned what I was smoking—I’ve decided to attempt again, and this time give five possible trades that are not so outside-the-box.

In a couple of the trades I proposed in my earlier piece I suggested moving Ryan Howard.  The only way Howard gets moved, at this point in his career and with his contract, is for another bad contract.  That was the idea behind packaging him in a deal for Joe Mauer (his contract is even worse).  

Other than taking back an equally bad, or worse, contract, the Phillies are not going to move Ryan Howard.  And they probably shouldn’t.

The Phillies’ two best trade pieces, on their major league club, are pitchers Cliff Lee and Vance Worley.  While their minor league system has been gutted in recent years in an attempt to continue winning division titles, it is not completely barren.  

However, if they were to attempt to deal for a player like Chase Headley or Jacoby Ellsbury, it would probably rob them of what talent they have left in their minor league system.  

All that being said, the Phillies do have the pieces necessary to upgrade their team.  They may not make a franchise-altering move, but they have a chance to get someone who can help them.

Without anymore babbling, here are a few deals the Phillies could possibly make this winter.

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