Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox Share Alarming Similarities, Shortcomings

The Philadelphia Phillies share many characteristics with the Boston Red Sox entering 2013. That is not a compliment.

The Red Sox won the World Series in 2007; the Phillies did so in 2008. In those years, the two franchises were widely admired for their organizational savvy and the game toughness of their star players.

But Pat Gillick and Theo Epstein are long gone. So are Manny Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino, among others.

Now, in 2013, both franchises are cautionary tales for what happens when you spend too much money in the wrong places, as well as how quickly the franchises competing with you can flip the script.

For the Phillies, the outsized contracts given to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay have all become unsound investments with the passage of time.

The Red Sox know the feeling, carrying John Lackey at $16 million for 2013 and only by a huge stroke of luck having rid themselves of the albatross contracts they gave Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett toward the end of the 2012 season.

But dumping those three players did not solve all of the Red Sox’s problems, and the issues the Red Sox carry into the season mirror those of the Phillies in a number of areas.

Both teams currently have premium power positions manned by major question marks.

The Phillies recently signed Delmon Young to alleviate their power shortfall in the outfield, but they still project to start the season with Darin Ruf (37 major league at-bats) or John Mayberry Jr. (.254 career batting average) starting in left field.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox as presently constituted do not have a major league first baseman on the roster. They did recently sign Mike Napoli to a one-year contract, but he has never played more than 70 games at first base and was recently diagnosed with avascular necrosis in his hips, per boston.com.

Elsewhere on the diamond, the Red Sox are looking for a resurgence from former All-Star Jacoby Ellsbury (74 games played in 2012) the way the Phillies are hoping against hope that Howard (71 games played in 2012) and Utley (83 games played in 2012) can resemble their formerly dominant selves.

Both starting rotations come back with comparable concerns. In Jon Lester and Cliff Lee, the Red Sox and Phillies respectively have healthy aces returning from subpar and sub-.500 seasons. In Lackey and Halladay, the Red Sox and Phillies respectively have wounded aces returning with much to prove but perhaps too few bullets left.

Above all, the Phillies and the Red Sox share the ultimate discomforting similarity: a view from beneath the best teams in their division.

The Red Sox finished dead last in the American League East in 2012; they were the proverbial “sucker at the table.” And it does not project to get much easier as the New York Yankees, Tampa Rays and Baltimore Orioles are coming off 90+ win seasons and the division’s fourth-place team (the Toronto Blue Jays) just added Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and R.A. Dickey.

The Phillies were marginally better at third place in the National League East in 2012, but their incredible climb back to the top might actually be harder than the one the Red Sox face.

At least the Red Sox can count on the division’s best teams serially beating up on one another and perhaps deflating the number of wins they will need to contend for a playoff spot.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are the middle team of a five-team division with two great teams (Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves) and two bad teams (New York Mets, the about-to-be-historically-bad Miami Marlins.) The Nationals will have a full season of Stephen Strasburg to go with the addition of Dan Haren; the Braves will have full seasons of B.J. and Justin Upton, per the New York Times.

With the Nationals and the Braves liberally feeding on the bottom of the division and taking their shares of their series with the Phillies, it will be all the Phillies can do to find enough wins to pull either Washington or Atlanta back.

So the Red Sox and Phillies, second and third in 2012 payroll respectively, enter 2013 with more debits than credits both in the books and on the diamond.

Both teams will need handfuls of things to break right for them to have any realistic chance of contending in 2013.

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Ranking the 5 Most Underrated Prospects in the Phillies’ Farm System

When composing my list of the top 10 prospects in the Philadelphia Phillies’ farm system, I was surprised by the lack of projectable players beyond the organization’s big names, namely Jesse Biddle. Although they do house numerous under-the-radar, high-ceiling prospects throughout their system, such as Roman Quinn and Maikel Franco, only a select few project favorably in the major leagues.

In selecting players for this article, I looked for prospects that are behind the developmental curve relative to their age, have a concerning medical history, lack significant experience in the minor leagues or are simply under-appreciated.

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Ranking Each Phillies Player by Who’s Under the Most Pressure in Spring Training

Over here on the East Coast, baseball’s offseason is often one filled with anticipation, with fans anxiously waiting for their team to sign a big-name free agent or swing a big trade.

But in the baseball doldrums of January, people are really waiting for one thing and one thing only: spring training. 

At this point, it’s so close that you can almost smell the fresh-cut grass and feel the warm sun of the Philadelphia Phillies‘ spring home of Clearwater, Florida. But for some members of the club, this camp is going to be all about business. 

That is because this is a team under a fair amount of pressure, following one of the most disappointing campaigns in recent memory. Now, they’re faced with the perfect storm of spring training pressure: aging veterans, young players trying to win a job and the duty to prepare for a very tough National League East that is going to give them all that they can handle in 2013. 

In fact, there aren’t many players on this roster who won’t be under any pressure this spring—that’s the gravity of this camp.

So who should you be keeping an eye on in spring training? I’m glad you asked. This slideshow will rank the entire Phillies’ (projected) 25-man roster by who’s under the most pressure this spring.

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A Timeline of Philadelphia Phillies’ Offseason Moves and Non-Moves

With less than three weeks to go until spring training begins, the Philadelphia Phillies are putting the finishing touches on an offseason that saw its share of moves and non-moves.

The Phillies essentially began creating holes that needed to be filled following their moves at the July non-waiver trade deadline, and entered this offseason with plenty of options but few courses of action that guaranteed success.

Even with this in mind, some of their decisions may still have come as surprises.

Despite several free agent center fielders available, the Phillies looked to the trade market to acquire Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins, creating a hole in their starting rotation in the process.  Although Kevin Frandsen and Freddy Galvis remain on the roster, the Phillies acquired Michael Young from the Texas Rangers to take over at third base.

And, according to CSNPhilly.com, the Phillies recently signed Delmon Young, proving that they weren’t finished making moves just yet.

However, for each player that the Phils acquired, multiple other options existed in players who either signed elsewhere or priced themselves out of the Phillies price range.

Here is a timeline of the moves and non-moves from this offseason that have led to the 2013 Phillies squad that will soon take the field in spring training.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Delmon Young Signing Shows Phils’ Fear of Closing Window

Delmon Young has been a Phillie for a very short time, and per Ruben Amaro Jr., already Young is being penned in as the Phillies‘ starting right fielder in 2013 (h/t hardballtalk.nbcsports.com).

Young hit .267 with 18 home runs and 74 runs batted in for the Detroit Tigers in 2012. Young is a right-handed hitter, he is only 27 years old and he’s coming off ankle surgery.

For all of those reasons, and because Young is kind of a jerk, a guy who once drove in 112 runs in a single season and was the American League Championship Series Most Valuable Player in 2012 took the Phillies’ low-ball offer of one year with a $750,000.00 base salary.

Incentives could push the deal’s value to $3.5 million, per mlb.com.

For weeks, Phillies fans were hearing that the Phillies were interested in signing right-handed outfielder Cody Ross, who instead went to the Arizona Diamondbacks for three years and $26 million.

Ross’ 2012 slash line of .267/22/81 is not much different from Young’s 2012 slash line of .267/18/74. And Ross is four years older. Is Ross really $25 million better than Young at this stage of their careers?

The clear and fair knock on Young is that he supposedly cannot play right field (or perhaps any position) adequately, and thus he is best suited for the American League.

But the 2008 Phillies won the World Series with a decomposing Pat Burrell chipping home runs into the short porch in left field. The 1993 Phillies won a pennant with Pete Incaviglia and Wes Chamberlain staggering around the AstroTurf at Veterans Stadium. None of them were ever confused with Garry Maddox in the outfield.

It didn’t matter, because they all hit.

Above all else, though, Young’s addition to the roster tells you that Amaro has seen all he needs to see out of John Mayberry Jr. and Domonic Brown—and not enough from Darin Ruf.

Amaro Jr. has concluded that none of them can hit in the middle of the lineup for a Phillies team that is trying to make one last playoff push with the core of the teams that won the National League in 2008 and 2009.

Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Cole Hamels have been with the Phillies through mostly thick and not much thin. But last season’s 81-81 season, marred by extended absences from Howard and Utley, could be seen as either a temporary setback or the beginning of a trend.

Amaro has seven players on the 2013 roster guaranteed to each make eight figures’ worth of the Phillies’ money in 2013 (Roy Halladay, Hamels, Howard, Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon, Rollins, Utley.) Michael Young is also going to make $16 million in 2013, but $10 million of that is coming from the Texas Rangers.

Every one of those players but Hamels is over 30 years of age.

If the 2013 team does not make the playoffs, significant changes are likely in the very near future. For that matter, if the team falls out of the 2013 race early, the likes of Halladay, Utley and Young (all of whom have contracts that will end after 2013) could be dealt to contenders.

And that means this is no time to be relying on “maybes” and “could-bes” in the outfield.

John Mayberry Jr. is 29 years old. He is a lifetime .254 hitter with a career on-base percentage of .313.

Domonic Brown is still a young player at 25 years of age. But his numbers are worse than Mayberry Jr.’s (.236 lifetime average, .315 career on-base percentage) and he is another left-handed hitter in a lineup loaded with them.

If either Mayberry Jr. or Brown had “it,” it stands to reason the Phillies would have seen it by now.

Fans clamor for 2012 minor league sensation Darin Ruf, who was his league’s Most Valuable Player at Double-A Reading in the Eastern League.

Ruf had a nice stint with the Phillies in September last year. But that is all it was: 12 games and 37 at-bats on a team playing out the string of a dead season.

To project Ruf as a No. 5 hitter on a team with a win-now-or-else imperative based on 37 at-bats would leap over “optimistic” and land on “foolish.”

Maybe Ruf can be a productive major league hitter, maybe he can’t. If Ruf was starting the season in Miami, or even with the New York Mets, plugging him into the starting lineup from the jump would make a ton of sense.

Not in Philadelphia, though. Not in 2013. Not with a team whose shelf life gets shorter with each passing day.

So the Phillies spent on Delmon Young’s 2013 season approximately what a single Cole Hamels start will cost in 2013. For that money, they secured a right-handed power bat who is not a “maybe” or a “could be.”

Young is a proven right-handed hitter at the major league level.

The Phillies could not afford to go into 2013 without one of them.

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How Signing Delmon Young Impacts the Philadelphia Phillies’ Roster

Getting a right-handed bat for the outfield was one of the offseason priorities for the Philadelphia Phillies.

General manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. finally got his man by signing Delmon Young to a one-year, $750,000 contract on Tuesday (Jan. 22), as announced by the team and reported by the Philadelphia Inquirer‘s Matt Gelb.

Last year for the Detroit Tigers, Young hit .267 with a .707 OPS, 18 home runs and 74 RBI in 608 plate appearances. He was especially impressive in the postseason, however. As the Tigers made a run to the World Series, Young batted .313 with a .907 OPS, three homers and nine RBI. 

The initial guess is that Young will be a platoon outfielder with the Phillies. That role should suit him well since he hit .308 with an .833 OPS, seven homers and 26 RBI versus left-handed pitching last season. For his career, Young has a .307 average and .824 OPS against lefties. 

However, with the right-handed Darin Ruf originally slated to play left field, platooning Young there makes no sense. As MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweeted, that could mean Ruf will begin the season in Triple-A Lehigh Valley. 

Ruf actually jumped from Double-A Reading to the majors last season as a September call-up for the Phillies. He finished his minor league season with a .317 average, a 1.028 OPS, 38 home runs and 104 RBI.

In 12 games with Philadelphia, Ruf batted .333 with a 1.079 OPS, three home runs and 10 RBI. CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury reported in late December that the Phillies wanted to give him a shot in left field and preferred to get a right fielder through free agency or trade.

Did the team change its mind, preferring to get Ruf more time in left field at Triple-A? He’s played most of his career in the minors at first base. 

But if the Phillies want to give Ruf a shot in left field, that means signing Young puts Domonic Brown’s spot on the active major league roster in jeopardy. 

Brown looked like the favorite to be Philadelphia’s starting right fielder, if for no other reason than the team didn’t have another true right fielder on the roster. He has played most of his career at that position.

FanGraphs‘ Ultimate Zone Rating measures Brown as a below-average defender. Over his career, he’s allowed 14 more runs than the average right fielder. But that might still be preferable to going with someone who hasn’t played much right field at all. 

The Phillies likely question whether Brown will hit well enough to justify a starting position. Last year, he batted .235 with a .712 OPS, five home runs and 26 RBI in 212 plate appearances with Philadelphia. Against lefties, he hit .196 with a .621 OPS, which pretty much demands a right-handed hitting-platoon partner.

However, according to the Philadelphia Daily News‘ Ryan Lawrence, Amaro and the Phillies may have already decided where Young will play before the team even reports to spring training in Clearwater, Fla. 

 

Amaro: Young will play RF.

— Ryan Lawrence (@ryanlawrence21) January 22, 2013

 

Well, then.

Young hasn’t played right field since 2007, since he was with the Tampa Bay Rays. He did play 133 games at the position that season, but only played left field or designated hitter while with the Minnesota Twins and Tigers. 

FanGraphs‘ UZR says Young was actually a good defensive right fielder, saving eight runs more than the average defender at that position in the two seasons he played there. But 133 games isn’t really a representative sample size of a player’s ability in the field. 

Additionally, Young will also be working his way back from microfracture surgery performed on his ankle in mid-November. (Nov. 10, to be exact.)

According to a tweet by Gelb, the projected recovery for Young could be up to 16 weeks. That will likely keep him out for all of spring training and could put him on the disabled list when the Phillies open the season. That’s not ideal for a guy who’s moving to a new position. 

Under those circumstances, Brown should presumably still have a chance to win a job in spring training, whether it’s in right field or left. At the very least, he could earn a platoon. As a left-handed hitter, that would give him the majority of plate appearances at his position. 

Though Amaro surely didn’t sign Young to sit on the bench, his salary won’t be so high that he has to be in the lineup. As mentioned, he only signed for $750,000—nearly one-tenth of the $6.75 million he earned last year with Detroit. 

According to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, roster and performance bonuses in the contract could raise its value up to $3.25 million.

But if Ruf and Brown are playing well enough to warrant starting spots in the outfield, Young isn’t going to see enough playing time to trigger the incentive clauses in his deal. The financial risk is low for the Phillies. 

Young signing for such a low salary might indicate how poorly he was regarded as a hitter—as well as being a poor defensive player who didn’t appear to play in ideal physical condition. 

But signing in late January for under $1 million could also show that Young became a relatively toxic player around MLB after his arrest for hate-crime harassment in New York last April. The incident resulted in a seven-game suspension by MLB.

Young also had to eventually perform community service. As Young shared with the Philadelphia media, according to Lawrence, that included picking up dog poop in New York dog parks (h/t Sulia.com). 

Amaro has been criticized for being too patient—or put more harshly, dragging his feet—this offseason, watching B.J. Upton sign with the Atlanta Braves and Nick Swisher go to the Cleveland Indians. Some believed the Phillies would make a run at Josh Hamilton or trade for Justin Upton as well. 

But staying under 2013’s $178 million luxury tax threshold was a concern for Amaro dating back to last season. Taking that into consideration, waiting for prices to come down and signing a risky player like Young makes sense.

The question now is whether Young will make Amaro look smart or foolish. 

 

Follow @iancass on Twitter

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MLB Preview: Taking a Closer Look at the NL East

The Philadelphia Phillies finally relinquished the crown to the emerging Washington Nationals squad in the surprising NL East division last season. The headline-grabbing Miami Marlins finished last in the division after having such high hopes and the New York Mets? Well, they were the same Mets we’ve come to know over the years: lack of production that leads to lack of effort. The Atlanta Braves had another solid year, but have still yet to make that breakthrough to become a true contender. So what does the 2013 season hold for these teams?

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Signing Delmon Young Could Spell Disaster for Current Phillies Outfielders

Just how desperate were the Philadelphia Phillies to sign a right-handed, power hitting corner outfielder with Major League experience? Desperate enough to forget what solid defense looks like? Desperate enough to jeopardize the playing time and development of a pair of young outfielders with a lot to lose by sitting on the bench (or wasting away in Triple-A)? 

Because if the Phillies’ signing of free agent outfielder Delmon Young does anything, it reeks of desperation. After months of searching for a bona fide, middle of the order threat to fill a corner outfield vacancy, the Phillies settled on signing Young to a one-year, $750,000 deal. (h/t: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports). Jeff Passan adds that if all incentives are reached, Young could earn as much as $3.5 million for one season.

While it looks like the kind of “low-risk, high-reward” type deal that Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has been pondering, take a look at the bigger picture. According to FanGraphs, Young cost the Detroit Tigers $3.2 million in value last season. That’s right. Negative value. 

That stems, first and foremost, from his inability to play the outfield. Young, who cannot play any position other than left field at this point in his career, has a weak arm, bad instincts and range that makes Darin Ruf a desirable option out there. 

The Phillies are signing Young for his bat—don’t be mistaken. But how valuable is a right-handed hitter that posted a slash line of .247 / .279 / .370 against right-handed pitching? Sure, he hit left-handed pitching well, but where is the upgrade here for the Phillies? What does Young do that John Mayberry Jr., in the same role, can’t do better? 

And while some will argue that the Phillies made a small financial commitment to a solid hitter against left-handed pitching, you have to understand that this isn’t all about money. It’s about playing time as well. For every at-bat that Young takes, that’s one less for a better hitter like Ruf or Domonic Brown, which of course leads us to the next question: What happens to the Phillies’ outfield now? 

When you look at the Phillies’ current depth chart, it isn’t difficult to see that something has to give. They now have three right-handed outfielders in Young, Mayberry and Ruf. Brown and Laynce Nix are the lefties in the outfield, while Ben Revere will play center field. 

The first thing that you need to ask yourself is this: What happens when Revere needs a day off? The only other center fielder on the roster is Mayberry, unless of course the Phillies decide to hold on to Rule 5 pick Ender Inciarte, which is a different scenario entirely. 

So we’ll assume that Mayberry is safe. Meanwhile, Brown and Nix are the only other right fielders on the roster, so they’re probably going to hang around as well. The problem here is that this likely winds up being a platoon of some sorts. 

The guy who is going to be on the outside look in, as things stand at the moment, is Ruf. The Phillies have the option of sending him to Triple-A to start the season, allowing him to play some left field and embarrass minor league pitchers. 

When the dust settles, the Phillies have to look at their depth chart now and ask themselves this: Are we any better with Delmon Young getting at-bats as the left fielder? The answer is no. If Young is nothing more than a bench bat—a right-handed slugger pinch hitting late in games a la what Matt Stairs used to do from the left side of the plate—fine. 

But we’re still likely talking about one of Mayberry and Ruf losing a roster spot, and when you look at the entire package, regardless of what they’re paying Young, you’re losing a better player for the facade of “right-handed power.” 

If Young winds up being anything more than a seldom used bench bat, the Phillies are taking the bat out of the hands of a better player. That’s not “low-risk, high-reward” in my book. 

Update, 4:44 pm: Just in case this deal wasn’t puzzling enough for you, Ruben Amaro Jr. has since met with the media and had this to say about Young’s deal: 

 

Amaro: Hope is Young will be everyday RF. Then says he may start year on DL.

— Matt Gelb (@magelb) January 22, 2013

 

That’s right. The Phillies expect Young to be their everyday right fielder—a position that he has not played, at all, since 2007. Young is also coming off of ankle surgery to remove bone spurs last November. 

This does change the logistics a bit. The Phillies seem to have their heart set on having a platoon in left field, so you can probably pencil in one of Darin Ruf and John Mayberry Jr. and Domonic Brown. Who those players will actually be is a question that will be answered in spring training.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Why Ben Revere Must Hit Leadoff in 2013

The Philadelphia Phillies made a couple moves this offseason, specifically trading away pitching to the Minnesota Twins for young, speedy outfielder Ben Revere.

Revere has much to prove at the major league level, yet the Phillies organization has great confidence in its young player.

The center fielder brings a much-needed speed presence in the club’s lineup, but he also must work on key elements of his game—specifically walks, on-base percentage and bunting. According to MLB.com, last season Revere struggled executing bunts and needed to improve this skill.

If Revere takes this offseason to focus on his weaknesses at the plate, he could do serious damage in the leadoff spot.

Here are four additional reasons why Ben Revere should bat leadoff for the Phils in 2013. 

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Best Reasons to Believe Phillies’ Veterans Have One More Run Left in Them

The National League East has become one of the best divisions in baseball.

With the emergence of the Nationals and the consistency of the Braves, the Phillies have quickly become an afterthought.

That may be because of their age. The Phillies were the second-oldest team in baseball in 2012, behind only the Yankees.

However, with the pitching staff the Phillies have assembled, you can never truly count them out. The unforeseen circumstances that arose in 2012 (i.e Cliff Lee winless through June, Roy Halladay with a 4.49 ERA) are unlikely to repeat themselves, as the Phillies look to start fresh and—most importantly—healthy.

Health is a major factor in how the aging Phillies will fare in 2013. 

So, what are the top reasons to believe the Phillies’ veterans have one more run left in them?

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