Will the Philadelphia Phillies Need to Rebuild After the 2013 Season?

Spring training is quickly approaching with many of the big-name free agents off the market.  The Philadelphia Phillies failed to make a major splash this offseason, as they have been known to do in previous offseasons under general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.

The Phillies had several holes that they wanted to address this offseason, many of which were successfully done by Christmas.  The biggest free-agent signing the Phillies made this year was eighth-inning relief pitcher Mike Adams, to address the major weakness of the bullpen.

The Phillies also acquired a center fielder in Ben Revere and a third baseman in Michael Young, both via trade.  The Revere trade required the Phillies to deal starter Vance Worley, so they addressed that hole by signing John Lannan.

The Phillies certainly have addressed the holes they needed to fill except for the corner outfield position, as they are preparing to enter spring training with a number of unproven major league players there.

However, the bulk of the question marks surrounding the Phillies are not with the corner outfielders, but with several of the core players. 

The Phillies suffered an extremely disappointing season in 2012.  This was largely due to injuries of several players, three of which leave the Phillies questioning their status and ability to return to form with the 2013 season approaching.

Roy Halladay, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley were injured for a major portion of last season, and if they are not recovered for 2013 we may be in stock for another disappointing year.

Utley missed the beginning of a large chunk of the season due to a knee injury, for the second season in a row (albeit the other knee).  Utley batted .256 with 11 home runs and 45 RBI in 83 games played.  If Utley is healthy this year, he will be a key cog in a previously stagnant offense.

Utley’s numbers improved as he played through the season, excepting the 0-for-11 he hit in October.  He did hit his high point last season in September, hitting .299 with a .405 OBP.  If Utley can remain healthy, he should contribute strong numbers to the Phillies offense. 

If he is not healthy, will we get an opportunity to see the defensive guru Freddy Galvis, who has yet to completely develop offensively.

Halladay suffered a Grade 2 strain of his labrum last season, causing him to suffer his worst season since 2004.  He had a 4.49 ERA through 156.1 innings pitched.  Some think that he is on a downward trend, whereas others believe that he suffered through a shoulder injury from spring training that caused his performance to suffer all season. 

If Halladay recovers, the pitching staff will be much stronger than in 2012.

Ryan Howard also missed a great deal of time in 2012 due to his torn Achilles tendon.  Howard was never expected to return to 100 percent last season, and if he continues to recover, he will be the great offensive power threat the Phillies expect him to be. 

In 71 games played, he hit .219 with 14 home runs and 56 RBI.  Howard needs to return to being the “big piece.”  He is the only one of these three players that is a guaranteed Phillie after 2013.

So, the question becomes, do the Phillies rebound this year, or do they use 2013 as a transition year to rebuild?

The Phillies have five players that they could lose after this season due to free agency.  Those players include Utley, Halladay, Laynce Nix, Michael Young and John Lannan.

Halladay is eligible for a $20 million vesting option for the 2014 season, but it is unlikely that he will meet its requirements.  To be eligible, Halladay needs to have pitched 415 or more innings between the 2012 and 2013 seasons.  With Halladay having only pitched 156.1 innings in 2012, he would have to pitch a career-high 258.2 innings in 2013.

That is not to say that Halladay will not return in 2014, but it will likely not be via the vesting option.  Of course, if Halladay really is on the decline or suffers further injuries this year, it may be time to part ways and rebuild after this season anyway.

Utley will have to play the majority of the season in order for the Phillies to tender him a contract.  If he does suffer with injuries again this season, it may be time for Galvis to step up into the second baseman role in 2014.

Young will likely only play this season in Philadelphia.  The Phillies have Cody Asche, who has been progressing through the minors quickly at third base and could be major league-ready in 2014. 

So, with Jimmy Rollins at shortstop, Howard at first, Utley or Galvis at second and perhaps Asche at third for the 2014 season, the Phillies infield is set and would be an average of 5.5 years younger, assuming the Phillies have Galvis and not Utley.

Revere will be manning center field for quite some time in Philadelphia, but if the Phillies rebuild after 2013, the corner outfield positions and starting pitchers may be the holes that the Phillies will need to fill to be competitive, especially if they are using internal options for the infield.

Fortunately for the Phillies, if they do need to rebuild after 2013, the free-agent market is currently well-stocked with starting pitchers and outfielders set to hit the market after this season.  The Phillies could look at Josh Johnson, James Shields, Phil Hughes, Matt Garza or many other options to fill any hole or holes in the rotation.

In the outfield, the Phillies would have the option to reunite with Hunter Pence, who is due to hit the market after 2013.  They could also look at Curtis Granderson or Jacoby Ellsbury and shift the outfield positioning around.  There are many more options for the outfield if the Phillies find holes there after this season.

At this point, it is best to hope that the key players the Phillies have rebound to meet their potential.  If Utley, Howard and Halladay return to their normal form and Young puts up numbers similar to his 2012 numbers, or even more like his 2011 performance, the Phillies are in for a good season. 

However, if after 2013, the Phillies need to rebuild, there will be many options on the free-agent market and many pieces internally to help create a younger and more competitive team.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Will Cole Hamels Be Injury Free to Start the 2013 Season?

Will Cole Hamels be ready to start the season with the Philadelphia Phillies?

According to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, the Phillies ace admitted to experiencing some shoulder discomfort earlier this offseason, but insists the problem is behind him.  

Hamels, who turned 29 in December, was throwing in October when the problem occurred and contacted Phillies trainer Scott Sheridan immediately after.

Supposedly, he “got aggressive” with his training regimen and experienced “some soreness” while throwing.  

General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. confirmed the issue but also stated that it is nothing to be concerned about.

We shut him down for a couple of weeks, but he’s fine now, Amaro said. He was being proactive more than anything else, which is good. We backed him off and slowed him down, but he’s back throwing now and doing fine. He’s had no complaints. I’d be concerned if this was an issue, but we don’t view this as an issue at all.

Amaro also disclosed that Hamels had also experienced “some shoulder soreness at the end of the season,” and stated that this type of soreness was, “not uncommon.”

Hamels, who went 17-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 216 strikeouts in 215.1 innings pitched, received a thorough medical check in July before signing a six-year, $144 million deal with the Phillies—the largest contract in Philadelphia sports history.  

Though the left-hander had a two-week stint on the disabled list in August of 2011 and had surgery to remove a bone chip from his elbow after that season, these injuries were considered minor and Hamels came back strong in 2012.  

With Hamels due to report to spring training in about a month, time will tell whether or not these issues will play a role in the upcoming season.

However, if Amaro and Hamels are genuine with their diagnosis of the problem, it looks like Cole Hamels won’t have an issue returning to dominance in 2013.

Follow @GaryOusdahl

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5 Reasons the Philadelphia Phillies Would Be a Perfect Fit for Justin Upton

As the offseason has progressed, the Philadelphia Phillies have done a pretty nice job of filling their needs. They have acquired a center fielder in Ben Revere, a third baseman in Michael Young, a veteran set-up man in Mike Adams and a fifth starting pitcher in John Lannan. Overall, the offseason has been a success for the Phils, though it’s been strange to see it go by without any marquee or high-profile moves.

However, the Phillies do still have one need, and that’s a corner outfielder. So far, they have not had any luck in finding one, and as of now, the Phillies would be going with platoons in either corner consisting of Domonic Brown, Darin Ruf, John Mayberry, Jr. and Laynce Nix.

That’s not exactly encouraging.

If the Phillies do want to make any big moves that would also take care of the corner outfield hole at this stage of the offseason, their best target should be Justin Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Upton, who has been involved in the rumor mill for quite some time now, has been placed on the trading block following the D’backs’ signing of Cody Ross to a three-year deal.

Are the Phillies necessarily the perfect fit for Arizona in a trade? No.

But is Upton the perfect fit for the Phillies? Absolutely, and here are the five reasons why.

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The Philadelphia Phillies’ ‘Hall of Very Good’

The Hall of Fame ballot is always a hot topic of discussion, but this year’s ballot is going to burn down the house if the fire isn’t contained. It’s a ballot that could easily be the most memorable of all time, highlighted by two of the best hitters and pitchers, respectively, in history: Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. 

Of course, that brings up the actual hot-button issue. Should a player who has been accused of using performance-enhancing drugs, in this case, steroids, be in the Hall of Fame? That’s a question for a different article, although it will have a long-lasting effect on this year’s ballot. 

But the question of whether a player belongs in the Hall of Fame got me to thinking: Throughout the history of the Philadelphia Phillies, which players would receive recognition, not for the Hall of Fame, but for that infamous “Hall of Very Good”? 

It’s a term that is tossed about lightly nowadays and has come to represent a designation for a player who put up very good numbers in his career, but just wasn’t considered Hall of Fame-worthy.

For this slideshow, I’m going to name those players, but do so in a “Phillies-related” fashion, meaning that any player on this list must have spent a noteworthy portion of his “Hall of Very Good” career as a member of the Phillies.

Also, for any active player, I will give a brief prediction whether they could wind up in the Hall of Fame when all is said and done. 

So without any further ado, I present the Phillies’ “Hall of Very Good.”

*Wins Above Replacement statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Thanks to Ruben Amaro Jr., the End Is Near

The Philadelphia Phillies have not had a losing season since 2002, when they finished 80-81. The last ten seasons have provided the faithful fan base in Philadelphia with more things to cheer about than to jeer about. Unfortunately though, the end is near. 

It wasn’t the farcical Mayan Apocalypse that dashed the hopes of Phillies fans everywhere. No. It was the mismanagement of a roster and farm system that will cause the destruction of arguably the best decade of baseball in this franchise’s history. 

Who is to blame?

People will easily point fingers at the players. Most notably, Ryan Howard’s disappointing lack of production along with an additional projected decrease as his salary increases through the next several years is causing flack among Phillies fans.

Despite all this, Howard is not to blame.

Charlie Manuel developed a reputation for being a manager who knows how to instruct and correct batting issues from the get-go. It is sad to say, but one of the problems with the Phillies has been the ability to hit effectively and drive in runs on a consistent basis in recent years.

Still, managers in baseball are the most innocuous figureheads in professional sports. They matter much less than head coaches in the NFL and NBA.

The problem resides with the front office.

On November 3, 2008, Ruben Amaro Jr. succeeded Pat Gillick as the general manager of the Phillies, directly after the Phillies won the 2008 World Series. Since then, a series of gaffes and questionable transactions have compounded the problems for the Phillies, diminishing their relevance in not only their specific division, the National League East, but the entire National League as well.

 

On April 26, 2010, less than two years after his promotion to GM, Amaro Jr. signed the soon-to-be 31-year-old first baseman Ryan Howard to a 5-year, $125 million contract extension. The deal called for a club option on the sixth year. 

Despite holding the single-season HR record for a Phillie as well as many other records, Howard’s production is on the decline. Coming off an Achilles tear, Howard struggled mightily last season. Some believe that Howard should regain his ability to produce at an elite level in 2013, while others dismiss him as an oft-injured slugger prone to striking out who can’t play defense and is on the decline.

Whichever way you see him, Howard is definitely a controversial piece to the puzzle of where things went wrong with Amaro Jr.

Amaro Jr. does deserve some credit. Despite selling the best prospects in the farm system and spending cash hand over fist, Amaro Jr. has amassed talent in the form of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Hunter Pence, Roy Oswalt and Jonathan Papelbon.

While these names are enticing, their deals probably are not. Take Papelbon, for example. He was given the richest contract in history for a reliever. The problem is that a deal worth $60 million for a pitcher who is tasked with attaining three outs per game is asinine.

Especially when the money could have been used to give the rest of the bullpen or 25-man roster more depth.

2013 will be a telling year for Amaro Jr. He will either look like a genius or possibly lose his job. He deserves to be knocked hard for acquiring, then trading away Gio Gonzalez. He also shipped Chris Singleton out of the organization.

Meanwhile, many fans are disheartened at the lack of talented acquisitions during the 2012-13 off-season.

Ben Revere? John Lannan? Both guys are nice players, but Revere has one of the highest ground ball rates in baseball while Lannan is extremely ordinary on the hill. Meanwhile, fan favorite Vance Worley—a man who, when healthy, is an extremely effective young pitcher—was shipped out of town.

The Phillies have thus far failed to secure a deal for the likes of Justin Upton, Jason Kubel or Dexter Fowler.

2013 will speak volumes for what Amaro Jr. has done for the Phillies franchise. The roster is the least talented of any roster the Phillies have had since 2005, which is why this is the year where Amaro Jr.’s legacy will be shaped.

As to whether or not he has a job as GM in Philadelphia come October, that remains anyone’s guess.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Should They Trade from Bullpen Depth to Bolster Outfield?

The Philadelphia Phillies have had a smaller-profile offseason but certainly not a quiet one. They have traded for Ben Revere and Michael Young to fill their respective center field and third base holes. The Phillies also have made two major free-agent signings, inking starting pitcher John Lannan and set-up man Mike Adams to contracts.

Aside from that, though, it’s been an offseason of expecting the Phillies to make a major move but not seeing one come around. It’s been unusual considering Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr.’s tendency to make big splashes in the offseason and at trade deadlines. He’s acquired or signed Cliff Lee twice, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Hunter Pence and Jonathan Papelbon, so to see the offseason go by without a marquee move is rather unorthodox.

Nevertheless, it is a method that should be praised, as Amaro has refused to jump the gun and set the market for big-name players for the first time. He’s been fiscally responsible and has found alternative ways to improve deficiencies on the team. They may not be overnight, difference-making moves, but they allow prospects in the future to make their way to the majors in conjunction with veteran players. It’s a savvy system.

However, there is still one glaring weakness for the Phillies, and that’s their outfield. Other than Revere, the Phillies will be going with platoons at both outfield corners should the season start today. The candidates for these platoons are currently Darin Ruf, Domonic Brown, John Mayberry, Jr. and Laynce Nix. While Ruf and Brown have starting potential, Ruf is entering his rookie season and Brown has failed to make an impact in the opportunities he’s had in the past.

If Amaro were to make an outfield move, the biggest free agency name available is Scott Hairston, and he is far from the answer. Trade-wise, the Phillies could pursue Alfonso Soriano or Vernon Wells, but both come with their question marks in addition to massive contracts.

In light of this, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Gelb recently interviewed Amaro, who said that the Phillies are “likely going with what they’ve got” in both the outfield and the rest of the roster. If any move is to be made in the remaining offseason, it would likely be one involving “low-risk, high-reward type of players,” as Amaro stated.

It could mean that creativity could come into play, and if that’s the case, the Phillies could look to make a trade from depth.

Depth? What depth?

If there’s any position the Phillies can trade from, it’s the bullpen. Most, if not all of their minor league players close to the majors or major leaguers with little MLB experience—fringe players, I’ll call them—are relievers, and the Phillies have some depth from both arms in the bullpen should they choose to utilize it in trades.

Not all of their young relievers are exactly valuable, however. Guys like Joe Savery and B.J. Rosenberg have failed to impress in the majors and are more likely to be cut than acquired by means other than waiver claims. Michael Schwimer has done an average job in the major leagues but his qualms with the Phillies’ brass about a potential lack of DL placement could indicate that he has lost favor within the organization, especially since he didn’t even make it back to the majors in September after his August demotion.

The young relievers the Phillies have who could be worth something in trades are right-handers Justin De Fratus, Phillippe Aumont and Michael Stutes, and southpaws Jake Diekman, Jeremy Horst and Antonio Bastardo. Schwimer could also be appealing, though likely not as much as some of the other names on this list.

None of these relievers alone would be enough to woo another team to trade an outfielder of starting caliber, so in that regard it’s essentially useless. However, there have been some teams looking for relief help, including the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles. In addition, five teams, including the Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers, all showed interest in left-handed reliever J.P. Howell before he latched on with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Milwaukee Brewers were at one point seeking southpaw relievers but have since signed Tom Gorzelanny and Mike Gonzalez. And the Toronto Blue Jays—though this is just my speculation—may have interest in trading for a reliever if Darren Oliver retires, since they are apparently over budget by about $15 million and may even have to eliminate salary in other places to make room for Oliver’s $3 million salary for 2013 should he choose to play. Oliver’s issue, according to the previous links, is that he feels he should earn a raise for 2013 and restructure his contract, but the Blue Jays have so far refused.

This means that any of the Rays, Orioles, Nationals, Cubs, Mariners, Rangers, Brewers and Blue Jays could have interest in relief help. My belief is that a team like the Orioles would need to trade a left-handed reliever before making any additions since they have a plethora of them. The Rangers and Brewers are likely out of the running since they have already made bullpen additions this offseason, the Rangers with Joakim Soria and Jason Frasor and the Brewers with Gonzalez and Gorzelanny.

That leaves the Rays, Cubs, Mariners and Blue Jays, and possibly the Nationals if the intra-division hump can be resolved. But do any of these teams match up in a trade with the Phillies?

The Rays recently acquired top outfield prospect Wil Myers as part of the James Shields trade to Kansas City, but they otherwise struggle with tradeable outfield depth. Their current outfield consists of Sam Fuld, Desmond Jennings and Matt Joyce, none of whom would likely interest the Phillies nor would compel the Rays to trade one for a Phillies reliever.

The Cubs have Alfonso Soriano to trade or could even consider dealing David DeJesus (again, my speculation) should they opt to go with top prospect Brett Jackson in center field. Soriano could be appealing to the Phillies as I already mentioned, but DeJesus, as a platoon-type outfielder who bats left-handed, would not be especially appealing to the Phils.

Seattle could trade Casper Wells or Michael Saunders, but neither would be the answer for the Phillies. If the Mariners were willing to deal Franklin Gutierrez, the Phillies would surely listen, but his defense and ability to hit for average likely deter the Mariners from trading him.

That leaves the Toronto Blue Jays as a possible match. In terms of outfield assets they might consider trading, the Jays have Rajai Davis, Anthony Gose and Moises Sierra. Davis has speed, as does Gose, who also excels defensively. Sierra is more of a bench-type player as of now. But would Toronto, who doesn’t otherwise have a glaring bullpen need, consider it a necessity to deal any of these outfielders? Probably not.

The Washington Nationals would be the final team left, and they could very well be the Phillies’ best trading partner. Washington’s lone left-handed relief option right now is Zach Duke, and he is far from a proven commodity in recent years. That creates an opening for the Phillies to deal one of Bastardo, Diekman or Horst to the Nationals should they choose. But who would the Phillies receive in return?

It’s likely out of the Phillies’ reach due to the divisional issue, but now that Washington has re-signed first baseman Adam LaRoche to a two-year contract, Michael Morse is in limbo with the Nats. With Jayson Werth, Denard Span and Bryce Harper all more likely to earn outfielding jobs than Morse, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal has since tweeted that the Nationals are discussing Morse with about five or six teams in trades.

CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman also tweeted that the Phillies could use Morse’s bat, but Rosenthal also opines in a separate tweet the obvious divisional hump the two teams would have to overcome. Nevertheless, I’d speculate that any Morse trade would have to consist of more than a left-handed reliever. But what could give the Phillies some more leverage is that Morse is only under contract through 2013 before hitting free agency, so his value decreases, even if only slightly.

If Morse were to become a Phillie, the Phils may have to trade at least one top prospect to get a deal done. Jesse Biddle would probably be an overpay, but would the Nationals, as an intra-division team, settle for anything less?

The Phillies could try to make a package around shortstop Roman Quinn, who Baseball America recently ranked as the Phillies’ second-best prospect entering 2013. They could also trade one of Tommy Joseph or Sebastian Valle since the Nationals’ only area of potential improvement is catcher. I have a hard time seeing either happen unless Morse agrees to a contract extension, though, but a package of Quinn or Joseph and maybe Diekman could get a trade done since the Nationals don’t have a severe need for starting pitching.

Personally, I wouldn’t trade Quinn or Joseph right now, much less for Morse. But if Morse is on the table for the Phillies, should they pursue him? Possibly. Should they go in a different direction and try to trade for someone else? Maybe, but who? What package should the Phillies try to surrender in any trade for an outfielder? Or, even more radical, should the Phillies surrender their first-round pick this year for someone like Michael Bourn on a one-year deal?

I’m not sure what the answer is here. Maybe a Quinn-Diekman package for Morse would suffice since Ian Desmond did not show anything prior to 2012. Kurt Suzuki is also not a reliable option, though he did show improvement after being traded to the nation’s capital. But with the Nationals currently sitting as one of baseball’s best teams in all areas, they don’t need a lot, and unfortunately for the Phillies, they may not have the assets the Nationals want.

What do you think the Phillies should do? Please comment your thoughts below.

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Assessing Phillies’ Best, Worst-Case Win Totals If They Are Done Adding Players

Ruben Amaro, Jr. just played the sad trombone for Philadelphia Phillies fans. 

The offseason began with the hope that the Phillies would add an impact bat to their outfield and perhaps add a major contributor at third base as well. But reality has fallen a bit short of those expectations thus far. 

Philadelphia did get the center fielder it needed, acquiring Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins. But the price to get Revere was rather high, costing the Phillies starting pitchers Vance Worley and Trevor May. 

Though the Phillies could use another outfielder—preferably a full-time right fielder—Amaro is now saying that his offseason shopping is finished, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Gelb.

“We’re likely going with what we got,” said Amaro. 

That means the Phillies will report to Clearwater for spring training in approximately five weeks with a projected outfield trio of Darin Ruf in left, Revere in center and Domonic Brown in left. John Mayberry, Jr. and Laynce Nix will also be in the mix, likely as platoon partners for Ruf and Brown. 

However, with Michael Bourn remaining as the only free-agent outfielder that can make a difference for a lineup, Amaro doesn’t have many other options to bring in.

Besides, as Gelb explains, the Phillies have around $7 million to spend, as Amaro wants to stay under the $178 million luxury tax threshold for this year. That won’t be enough to sign Bourn, unless he agrees to take a deep discount on a one-year contract. 

The Phillies could explore the trade market, with players such as the Arizona Diamondbacks‘ Justin Upton and Jason Kubel, the Chicago Cubs‘ Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells of the Los Angeles Angels reportedly available. But after trading Worley and May, Amaro doesn’t have as many pieces to deal as he did previously. 

With a largely unproven outfield, new third baseman Michael Young coming off the worst season of his career and concerns over the condition of Roy Halladay’s shoulder, what sort of performance can the Phillies expect for 2013?

Is this a team that can compete with the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves in the NL East, as presently constructed? Is enough there to at least hang in the race and motivate Amaro to make some additions at midseason? 

 

Best-Case Scenario

According to CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury, the Phillies want to give Ruf every chance to win the left field job. Last year, Ruf hit .317 with a 1.028 OPS, 38 home runs and 104 RBI for Double-A Reading.

Ideally, he’ll bring his production from the minors last season and give Philadelphia the right-handed power hitter that can bat between Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the middle of the lineup. 

At third base, Young has to improve over his .277 average and .682 OPS last season with the Texas Rangers. If the Phillies had added an impact bat in the outfield, perhaps they would settle for that kind of production from Young. 

However, the Phillies need Young to approach his career numbers of a .300 average and .800 OPS, while perhaps adding 10 home runs and 90 RBI. That would be the right-handed bat Amaro hoped to add during the offseason.

On the pitching side, Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels have to be the best starting trio in MLB. That’s certainly the expectation and there’s no reason to think those three pitchers can’t meet that standard. 

Lee and Hamels are both coming off excellent seasons. But Halladay has to be healthy. The Phillies need 200 innings from him, while approaching a sub-2.00 ERA and 20 wins. 

Other than Jonathan Papelbon, the Phillies bullpen was a disaster last season. Adding Mike Adams—one of baseball’s best setup relievers over the past five years—should improve the team’s late-inning relief significantly. 

Antonio Bastardo and Jeremy Horst should provide some stability in middle relief, allowing the game to progress nicely from the starting pitching to the bullpen for the Phillies. At the very least, fewer leads should be blown and Papelbon could exceed 40 saves.

If these scenarios play out in the Phillies’ favor, they should approach 90 wins. But even if Philadelphia hits that total, it probably won’t be enough to overtake the Nationals and Braves in the NL East. 

 

Worst-Case Scenario

It’s not difficult to imagine this thing going south for the Phillies in 2013. The team needs many things to go right for a successful season to come together. 

For instance, Revere profiles as a leadoff hitter with speed. His .333 on-base percentage last year says he should do fine in that role, but he mostly batted second for the Twins. How will he fare in being the batter who has to set the table for the rest of the order? 

What if Ruf can’t make the jump from Double-A to the majors this year? In 12 games with the Phillies, he hit .333 with a 1.079 OPS, three homers and 10 RBI. That seems to indicate he can handle the transition, but 12 games and 37 plate appearances isn’t much to go on. 

The bigger concern in the Phillies outfield is Brown. At 25 years old, he still has time to develop into a significant contributor. But Brown hasn’t made a strong impression over the past three seasons, batting .236 overall with a .703 OPS. 

Against left-handed pitching, Brown has a .208 average and .586 OPS. That will probably mean Mayberry plays when a lefty is on the mound.

Can the two of them together combine to provide serviceable major league production? If not, and Ruf proves not ready for prime time, the Phillies offense could conceivably be even worse than it was last year. 

If Halladay struggles with diminished velocity and finds himself back on the disabled list because of his shoulder, that increases the burden on Lee and Hamels to anchor the starting rotation. Those two will probably be up to the task, but losing Halladay would obviously affect the depth of the Phillies’ starting staff.

John Lannan was signed to be the team’s fifth starter and should give Philadelphia suitable production in that spot. But if Lannan has to move up in the rotation, his 4.00 ERA and inability to strike out batters will take the mound more often. 

Finally, Adams will be coming back from offseason thoracic outlet surgery. Some pitchers, such as the St. Louis Cardinals‘ Chris Carpenter, have been able to recover from that procedure nicely. Others, like Jeremy Bonderman, haven’t been the same since. 

The Phillies are obviously confident in Adams’ chances, signing him to a two-year, $12 million contract. But if he’s slow to rebuild strength in his shoulder, the bridge between the starting pitchers and Papelbon could continue to be shaky. 

If these situations fall apart for the Phillies, they could easily win fewer than the 81 victories achieved last season. Perhaps the team would approach 75 wins. Unlike last year, Amaro may not have assets to deal away at the trade deadline either. 

It could get ugly at Citizens Bank Park under those circumstances. 

 

Follow @iancass on Twitter

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Philadelphia Phillies: Handicapping Odds of Prospects Making Opening Day Roster

The only way to make sense of which of the Phillies‘ prospects should make the Opening Day roster is to work backwards.

Per ESPN.com’s depth chart for the Phillies—as accurate a predictor as any—the Phillies have the following 24 players likely to be in uniform on April 1, 2013 at Turner Field against the Atlanta Braves:

Catcher: Erik Kratz, Humberto Quintero

First base: Ryan Howard

Second base: Chase Utley

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins

Third Base: Michael Young

Utility Infielders: Kevin Frandsen, Freddy Galvis

Outfielders: Ben Revere, John Mayberry Jr., Darin Ruf, Domonic Brown, Laynce Nix

Starting Pitchers: Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Kyle Kendrick, John Lannan

Relief Pitchers: Jonathan Papelbon, Mike Adams, Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Jeremy Horst, B.J. Rosenberg

Carlos Ruiz will be back on the 25-man roster after serving his 25-game suspension for violating MLB‘s substance abuse policy. When Ruiz returns, either Kratz or Quintero is then likely to be shipped out.

Regardless, that leaves but one open spot for a “prospect” to fill.

Given the odd mix of expensive, established veterans (the entire infield, three-fifths of the starting rotation) and inexpensive question marks (Kratz, Ruf, Horst, Galvis) there is just not that much room left for prospects to make the Opening Day roster.

That is in large part because a number of those players, Ruf and Galvis being prime examples, have been rushed to the big leagues ahead of schedule because of injuries or need.

Galvis would not have played in Philadelphia in 2012 but for Utley’s inability to start the season.

Ruf is only likely to make the Opening Day roster because the Phillies lack a quality right-handed slugger and they are hoping Ruf can be that player the way a degenerate gambler hopes a scratch-off lottery ticket brings a big win.

Under different circumstances, both Galvis and Ruf would be starting the season in Lehigh Valley.

Beyond them, the Phillies do not have that many major league-ready prospects.

Tommy Joseph and Sebastian Valle are the two top catching prospects in the Phillies’ organization. But the Phillies have apparently decided that both are better off getting regular work in the minor leagues rather than caddying for Erik Kratz for a month.

Jonathan Pettibone split his 2012 time between Reading and Lehigh Valley and pitched quite well, but he is exceptionally unlikely to unseat any of the veterans in time for Opening Day.

There are plenty of mysteries surrounding the 2013 Phillies.

Can Ruf play left field? Can he hit major league pitching regularly?

Can the aging (old, really) infield play 600 games combined?

Does Roy Halladay have anything left?

However, there is not much mystery about prospects making the Opening Day roster for the 2013 Phillies.

They are in “what you see is what you get” mode until further notice.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Phillies Rumors and Speculation: Fact or Fiction on the Hottest Talk

The Philadelphia Phillies rang in the New Year in the same manner they have approached the offseason to date: nothing extravagant. They have not made a ton of noise this offseason and the current state of the market suggests that they won’t have a real opportunity to go crazy. 

But there are still moves to be made. The Phillies came into the winter hoping to find an everyday center fielder, first and foremost, and have done so with the addition of Ben Revere. In another trade, the Phillies acquired their everyday third baseman in Michael Young. 

Having dipped into the free agent market sparingly for the first time in a few seasons, the Phillies have thus far come away with Mike Adams, their new setup man, and John Lannan, who should serve as the club’s fifth starter, barring any unforeseen spring training happenings. 

A quick look at the roster shows that it is not capable of many big surprises, but there are still rumors out there and good players to be had. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the hottest rumors in Philly. 

Are the Phillies preparing a big move or just adding to an already solid roster? 

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Philadelphia Phillies’ 5 Biggest Offseason Disappointments

It’s difficult to label any aspect of the Philadelphia Phillies’ offseason as a disappointment, seeing as how the season hasn’t started yet and no results have been produced on the field.

But that doesn’t mean that certain moments and decisions were not disappointing on paper this offseason.

While there’s a chance that a double platoon at the corner outfield spots will be successful, there’s also a chance that the Phillies could regret not having landed a veteran free agent to fill the need.

On the trade front, should the Phillies have held on to Trevor May rather than causing their minor league system to continue to thin, especially with Buster Olney tweeting that Justin Upton is back on the trade market?

And a team will usually be disappointed to find out that it won’t have its best hitter from last season for the first 25 games of the following year.

These areas may only seem disappointing until the regular season begins and performances can change things.  However, these areas, on paper, have led to some disappointment this offseason, regardless of how long the feeling will last.

Here are the five biggest offseason disappointments for the Phillies.

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