Early Projections for Philadelphia Phillies’ Final 25-Man Roster

The Philadelphia Phillies have five days left before their first official spring training game, and the first opportunity for players to begin winning or losing roster spots for the upcoming season.

The Phillies still have far more questions than answers at this point as to which players will start, claim final roster spots and remain healthy throughout the season.

Soon, however, players will have a chance to see whether an offseason’s worth of preparation was enough to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster.

The starting rotation and infield has already been locked in, and four out of a likely seven bullpen spots have been claimed.  As for the outfield, the question marks now surround which players will start, rather than which players will make the initial roster.

In total, six position players have starting jobs already nailed down, joining five starting pitchers and four relievers with guaranteed jobs.  Additionally, John Mayberry, Jr. and Kevin Frandsen may not be in the starting lineup, but both are out of minor league options, meaning that the Phils would have to risk either player being claimed on waivers if they were to option them to the minor leagues.

That leaves primarily the bullpen, bench and possibly an additional outfield spot up for grabs as games get underway in less than a week.

The Phillies will soon have to monitor the health and progression of players in camp, as well as the performances of certain players in the World Baseball Classic, in order to put their Opening Day roster together.

Before Grapefruit League games begin, however, here are the early projections for the final 25-man roster that the Phillies will take to Atlanta to begin the 2013 season.

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Complete Philadelphia Phillies 2013 Season Preview

2012 Record: 81-81

 

Key Departures: RHP Josh Lindblom, RHP Jose Contreras, RHP Vance Worley, OF Juan Pierre, OF Nate Schierholtz, 1B Ty Wigginton, 3B Placido Polanco, C Brian Schneider

Key Arrivals: LHP John Lannan, RHP Chad Durbin, RHP Rodrigo Lopez, RHP Mike Adams, RHP Juan Cruz, RHP Aaron Cook, OF Ben Revere, OF Delmon Young, 3B Michael Young 

 

Projected Rotation

Cole Hamels (17-6, 3.05 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, 216 K in 2012)

Roy Halladay (11-8, 4.49 ERA, 1.222 WHIP, 132 K)

Cliff Lee (6-9, 3.16 ERA, 1.114 WHIP, 207 K)

Kyle Kendrick (11-12, 3.90 ERA, 1.274 WHIP, 116 K)

John Lannan (4-1, 4.13 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, 17 K—six starts)

 

Projected Starters

C: Carlos Ruiz (.325/.394/.540—2012 slash line)

1B: Ryan Howard (.219/.295/.423)

2B: Chase Utley (.256/.365/.429)

3B: Michael Young (.277/.312/.370)

SS: Jimmy Rollins (.250/.316/.427)

LF: Dominic Brown (.235/.316/.396)

CF: Ben Revere (.294/.333/.342)

RF: Delmon Young (.267/.296/.411)

 

Bullpen

Closer: Jonathan Papelbon (2.44 ERA, 1.057 WHIP, 38 SV in 2012)

Setup: Mike Adams (3.27 ERA, 1.395 WHIP)

Others: Antonio Bastardo, Jeremy Horst

 

Rotation Report

The 2012 season wasn’t always kind to the Philadelphia Phillies starting rotation, with Roy Halladay struggling at times to stay on the mound and Cliff Lee seemingly never getting the run support needed to get the win.

They did get another great season from Cole Hamels, and in a move that took some of the guessing out of last year’s trade deadline, they signed him to an extension that will keep him in a Phillies uniform for years to come.

Vance Worley won’t be in the rotation this season after being sent to Minnesota in the trade that brought center fielder Ben Revere to town, but the addition of John Lannan could prove to be one of the most underrated moves of the offseason.

Lannan struggled to fit in with the Nationals last season, but with a wealth of talent and plenty to prove to his former team, we may see the lefty emerge as a star in the NL East.

Kyle Kendrick may still be known best in the baseball world for the time he was “traded” to a Japanese club, but he nevertheless represents a solid fifth starter who should do a fine job of bringing up the back end of the rotation.

 

Bullpen Report

One of the biggest signings the Phillies made last offseason was the deal that brought Jonathan Papelbon in as the team’s closer to the tune of four years and $50 million.

He was solid once again in 2012, finishing a league-high 64 games while notching 38 saves, giving him at least 30 in each season since joining the league full-time in 2006.

Signing Mike Adams to a two-year, $12 million deal this winter gave the team one of the best setup pitchers in the division, something that should pave the way to Papelbon’s continued dominance.

Adams has never made an All-Star Game appearance but has been a force wherever he’s gone, including the 1.66 ERA he posted in more than 200 games with the San Diego Padres from 2008-2011.

 

Offense Report

One of the bright spots for Philadelphia last season was the play of catcher Carlos Ruiz, who batted a career high .325 in 114 games while appearing in his first All-Star Game.

He’ll be missed early on as he awaits his suspension to end, but the team will hope that there are others ready to pick up the offensive slack.

One player they’ve counted on for years is slugger Ryan Howard, who has been a huge threat in the batter’s box overall but struggled to return from injury last season and saw some of the lowest offensive numbers of his career.

Chase Utley had his own issues when it came to getting healthy enough for significant production, but he did manage to post a .365 on-base percentage and went deep 11 times despite missing half the season.

In the outfield, the Phillies will be missing Shane Victorino’s productivity and the depth that Juan Pierre gave them, but the additions of Delmon Young and Ben Revere could pay off.

Young will have plenty of reason to perform, as he was forced to sign an incentive laden contract, and with Revere representing one of the speediest players in the league—both on the basepaths and in the field—he should have plenty of energy this season.

 

Pitching Stud: Roy Halladay

When you think about the Phillies pitching staff, it’s hard to not think of Roy Halladay before all others.

The 15-year veteran has posted a 51-24 record since coming over from Toronto after the 2009 season.

He made just 25 starts last season, something that could concern the front office and fans alike as he continues to get up there in age, but Halladay has always been able to produce even when he’s not at his best.

Keeping that in mind, the front of the rotation will continue to be in good hands if he can get back to a season like 2010 when he led the league with 21 wins en route to his second Cy Young award.

 

Hitting Stud: Ryan Howard

From 2006 through 2011, the Phillies had Ryan Howard producing an average of 44 home runs and 133 RBI per season, numbers that made him one of the best in the league during that span and the unquestioned offensive leader in Philly.

2012 was an entirely different story for Howard, as he appeared in only 71 games and batted .219, 52 points lower than his career average.

He’s only 33 years old and should be able to return to form if healthy, something the Phillies definitely need if they hope to contend in the tough NL East.

 

X-Factor: Ben Revere

 

Top Prospect: Jesse Biddle

Jesse Biddle probably won’t be seeing a major league diamond full-time until 2014, but if his minor league exploits are any indication, he’ll be worth the wait.

He’s been one of the best pitchers in each league he’s thrown for, and with his strikeouts on the rise and walks on the decline, the 60th-best prospect in the league has the makings of a pitcher who could fit in on a rotation with a reputation for doing big things.

 

What Will the Phillies Do Well?

When you look at the makeup of the Phillies roster, it’s obvious to say that the team will once again have a well above-average starting rotation.

When you have three starting pitchers who would be aces on most other rosters, you know you’ve got the right stuff.

The rotation wasn’t at their best in 2012 but still managed to post more quality starts than all but one team and had a team WHIP in the top five in the league.

 

What Will the Phillies Not Do Well?

I’m not necessarily saying that the Phillies won’t see enough production from their outfielders, but they definitely represent the biggest question mark.

As mentioned, Revere and Young could be a big positive for the team, but Revere doesn’t have enough major league experience to give the team confidence that they’ve got a solid everyday center fielder.

With Young, you’ve got a former No. 1 overall pick who has had his share of struggles off the field, something he would most certainly like to keep in his past as he joins his fourth major league roster.

If he can focus on baseball and put pride and distractions in his blinders, he should be able to show the offensive power that he had at times in Detroit, but the fact that a 27-year-old with his talent was forced to sign for only $750,000 is somewhat alarming.

 

Final Thoughts

In a 2012 predictions piece that I wrote in December 2011, my pick to take home the World Series title was the Philadelphia Phillies.

With a .500 record and no playoff appearance for the Phillies last season, the prediction proved to be way, way off.

I’m not going to go as far as to say that Philadelphia has what it takes to make it to the Fall Classic in 2013, but I definitely think they can be a legitimate playoff contender.

There is plenty of talent to contend with in the NL East with the Braves and Nationals both stockpiling talent for long-term contention, but even without any “big” moves this winter, the Phillies can’t be ignored in the division.

 

Projected Record: 92-70

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

15 Things to Watch in Phillies’ First Week of Spring Training Games

Baseball is back. 

It’s time to forget about the snow and blistering cold and make way for thoughts of spring training. A warm blast of sunshine hits you in the face, accompanied by the tranquilizing sounds of baseballs cracking bats, popping mitts and clearing fences. 

Spring training is here and as clubs begin to prepare for the Grapefruit League with various workouts, the thought finally dawns on you—we’re just about a week away from baseball. How in the world can I prepare in time? 

Don’t worry. We have you covered. 

It’s been a long offseason in particular for the Philadelphia Phillies, who finished the 2012 season with a disappointing third place finish. They’ve added some new pieces, however, and surely can’t wait to have the opportunity to erase one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history from recent memory.

It all begins with a week’s worth of spring training action, which for the sake of this article, we’ll classify as games spanning from February 23-March 2. With some of the early spring story lines in mind, watch closely as the Phillies prepare and compete against their early Grapefruit League foes. 

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5 Things Philadelphia Phillies Need to Do Before Spring Training Games Start Up

Now that MLB spring training is underway, the Philadelphia Phillies are just one of the league’s 30 teams gearing up for the 2013 season. Phillies pitchers and catchers reported to the team’s spring training complex in Clearwater, Fla. on Feb. 13, and position players are expected to report by no later than tomorrow, Feb. 16.

Between the pitchers and the everyday players, little goes on before the Grapefruit League (Florida) and Cactus League (Arizona) spring training games commence. A few news items will fly by the radar here and there, but until that happens, little to no roster news tends to come about.

However, for the Phillies, there are a few contentions that should be settled by the time spring training games roll around. The first game is an intrasquad match on Friday, Feb. 22, and after that, the first Grapefruit League game occurs the next day, Saturday, Feb. 23. Games will then take place almost every day until the beginning of the regular season.

In order to give some of the Phillies players more time to adjust to certain roles and assignments, it’s important that the team establishes these things sooner rather than later. Here are five things the Phillies need to do before the beginning of spring training games.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Ryan Howard’s Breezy Optimism Won’t Blow Doubts Away

“I understand the window talk. Yeah, there is a window of opportunity, but if you focus on the window closing, then you never let that cool breeze come in.”

Wow.

This was the happy spin that Ryan Howard put on what he perceived to be media negativity about the Phillies‘ 2013 prospects for another championship run, per Jim Salisbury of Comcast Sportsnet Philadelphia.

Howard did not stop there. In his opinion, the Phillies’ window of opportunity remains agape.

“For us, the window closes when the window closes, but right now the window is still open, so we have to go out and take advantage of this nice breeze while we can.”

Howard is entitled to his opinion, even if it is dead wrong.

The Phillies’ window was closing in Clearwater this time last year. The 2012 Phillies were defending their fifth straight National League East title.

They had Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels coming off strong seasons—those three won a total of 50 games in 2011.

Howard and Chase Utley were never deemed likely to begin the season in Philadelphia, not with Howard’s wrecked Achilles and Utley’s degenerative knees. But as long as they got back in the lineup before Memorial Day, the logic went, it would be all right.

Then they didn’t, and it wasn’t.

Utley’s first game of the 2012 season came on June 27; Howard’s was on July 6. By the time Howard returned to live action last year, the Phillies were 37-47 and buried in the National League East basement, 13 games behind the eventual division winners, the Washington Nationals.

So despite Howard’s breezy optimism, the Phillies’ window is not open anymore. It closed when they went 81-81 and finished third in the division in 2012.

And sure, Howard and the Phillies will try like hell to jack the shut window back up. Even Howard acknowledges, though, that the group applying the elbow grease looks familiar but not the same.

“People keep talking about older, and older and older,” Howard noted. “I don’t buy into the whole old thing. It’s about how young you feel inside. It’s all about how well you take care of yourself.”

Maybe. But Howard’s Achilles, Utley’s knees and Halladay’s right shoulder did not betray them because they failed to take care of themselves. Older players get hurt, and the Phillies have a lot of older players.

So the next time Howard wants to blow some sunshine up everyone’s apertures, he would do well to remember that he is not paid to talk.

Except by Subway—and they tell him what to say. 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Why They Had Major League Baseball’s Worst Offseason

The window is closing fast on the aging Philadelphia Phillies after they finished 81-81 last season, 17 games behind the upstart Washington Nationals in the NL East.

The Phillies’ streak of five straight division titles came to an end last year due in part to injuries suffered by staff ace Roy Halladay, Vance Worley, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Ryan Howard. Better health would help the club this season, but as the roster continues to age, there’s no guarantee the team will suddenly get healthier.

A lot hinges on the right shoulder of Halladay. He put up his worst ERA in 12 years last season at 4.49 while failing to crack 200 innings for the first time in seven years. Howard will also need to bounce back after struggling to battle back from an Achilles injury that limited him to 71 games and a tepid .718 OPS.

In order to overtake Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and the young guns in Washington, as well as the Wild Card winning Atlanta Braves, general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. needed to bring in reinforcements to supplant his aging core this winter.

Unfortunately, the additions of CF Ben Revere, RF Delmon Young, third baseman Michael Young, starting pitcher John Lannan and reliever Mike Adams aren’t going to be enough for the Phillies to overtake the Braves or the Nationals.

The Phillies needed to have a bold winter to make a run at a third NL pennant in the last seven years, but they appear to have fallen short. In that sense, they had Major League Baseball’s worst offseason.

The Rockies and Astros were the most inactive teams in acquiring talent this winter, but a series of shrewd moves wasn’t likely to push either team into contention. The Rangers had a quiet winter, but their farm system and young big league talent should allow them to stay in contention. The Marlins tore it all down again by implementing another rebuilding plan, but they were 69-93 last year even after being declared the winners of last offseason.

It’s hard to understand which direction the Phillies are headed in. Last year at the trading deadline, Amaro sent out outfielders Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence despite having dealt his two best prospects for Pence exactly one year prior. With an expensive, veteran roster and a weak farm system, the decision to reverse course and begin reloading was puzzling.

Flipping Pence for fifty cents on the dollar was an odd flip-flop so soon after swinging the deal to get him. To compound the error, Amaro then non-tendered Nate Schierholtz this winter. Schierholtz was initially acquired to take over right field in the deal that sent Pence to the Giants.

The Phillies enter this season with an expensive, aging team and a fairly weak farm system. Their farm system was ranked 20th overall by John Sickels of the SB Nation site Minor League Ball and 27th by ESPN Insider Keith Law.

On the big league club, the Phillies have some significant long term obligations to players that are on the wrong side of 30 years old.

34-year-old lefty Cliff Lee is still one of the game’s best pitchers, but he’s owed $75 million over the next three years—plus a $27.5 million club option or $12.5 million buyout in 2016. Cole Hamels is still in his prime at age 29, but he’s owed $144 million over the next six years.

Halladay, 36, is owed $20 million in the final year of his deal—though a $20 million option for next year would vest if he throws 259 innings and doesn’t end the season on the disabled list. Closer Jonathan Papelbon is due $39 million over the next three years, covering his age 32-34 seasons.

Howard, 33, is owed $95 million over the next four years—plus a $10 million buyout in 2017. Jimmie Rollins, 34, is owed $22 million over the next two years with an easily attainable $11 million option in 2015.

Chase Utley, the 34-year old second baseman who has averaged just 100 games played over the last three years, is due $15 million in the final year of his contract this year. Carlos Ruiz, 34, and Michael Young, 36, are also in the last year of their deals.

The combination of that expensive core and weakened farm system should have made Amaro’s task to build a winner in 2013 more urgent. The time to win is now, but his offseason moves haven’t made success any more likely this year than last.

Revere, 25, gives the Phillies more youth and speed. However, he’s never hit a home run in 989 career at-bats and his .319 on-base percentage won’t cut it for a top of the order hitter. He also cost the Phillies an excellent starter in Vance Worley, who went to the Twins in the deal for Revere.

Delmon Young was once the first pick of the draft, and at 27, he still has a chance to recapture his former glory. He hit .298/.333/.493 two years ago, but has slashed just .267/.299/.403 in the two seasons since.

Michael Young was excellent in 2011 for the pennant-winning Rangers, but he hit just .277/.312/.370 last season. The Rangers were so eager to get him out of town that they agreed to pay $10 million of the 36-year-old’s salary in 2013.

Lannan is a fine option for the back of the rotation, but he’s likely to be a downgrade from Worley. Lannan’s 4.01 career ERA is half of a run higher than Worley’s (3.50), and he wasn’t good enough to crack the Nationals rotation last year. He spent most of the year in Triple-A where he went 9-11 with a 4.30 ERA.

Mike Adams is one of the best relievers in the business when he’s healthy, but the health of his right shoulder has dogged him throughout his career. At 34, his recovery from the same thoracic outlet syndrome surgery that derailed Chris Carpenter’s career bears watching—though he is said to be throwing the ball early in spring training.

Revere, the two Youngs, Lannan and Adams don’t combine to move the needle enough for the Phillies. The projected standings at Baseball Prospectus peg the Phillies for a third place tie with the Mets at 80-82. The projected standings at the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog have the Phillies repeating last year’s 81-81 record and third place finish.

Projections don’t mean much because games aren’t played on paper and the teams who are anointed the winners of the winter don’t always play well in the summer. Yet no matter how meaningless computer projections may seem, they do point to the reality that Amaro didn’t do enough this winter to get the Phillies back to the promised land.

With so much of this team getting further past their primes, it’s now or never for the Phillies in 2013.

(All contractual data in this article is from Baseball Prospectus’ Cot’s Contracts. All statistics and ages cited are from Baseball-Reference. All ages are for the 2013 season).

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Overview of Phillies’ Farm System and Prospects for 2013

The times are changing in Philadelphia. When it once seemed like the Phillies‘ window to compete would stay open for at least a few more years after putting together that rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, this franchise is finding out that age can catch up to you in a hurry. 

Everything fell apart in 2012, thanks in large part to injuries. Roy Halladay had his worst season in nearly a decade. Cliff Lee got no run support. The offense sputtered for a long time trying to find itself. 

Despite all those problems at the big league level, the Phillies still managed to finish a respectable 81-81. However, that was not what they had envisioned just one year after winning 102 games. 

Things aren’t going so well down on the farm either, as years of trades and a lack of spending in the draft have left the farm system with a lot more questions than answers right now. The margin for error with the big league team is so small because there doesn’t appear to be any impact talent coming. 

Add to that some baffling moves this offseason (acquiring Michael Young to play third base and Delmon Young to play right field), and the Phillies could be looking at their first season under .500 since 2002. 

Here is a look at what the farm system has in place heading into 2013, potential breakout candidates and players who could make an impact this season, as well as what the team needs to see down on the farm. 

Note: All ages and stats courtesy of MiLB.com unless otherwise noted

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Odds on Each Non-Roster Phillies Invitee Making the Team

Spring training isn’t a month to prepare for the upcoming season for everyone in camp. For some, it’s a fight to make the club. It’s a hard-fought battle to make sure that when the club heads north, their name is on the Opening Day roster. 

Players labeled as “non-roster invitees” are guys with something to prove. They have not been added to the 40-man roster. Their contracts are not guaranteed at the major league level. These are the players who have to play some of their best baseball coming right off of the offseason if they want to play in Major League Baseball when camp breaks. 

The Philadelphia Phillies will have quite a few non-roster players in camp this spring. They will be looking for the next Juan Pierre—a player that joined the Phillies on a minor league deal last spring to become one of their best performers that season.

With spring training officially underway, the Phillies have 20 non-roster players in camp this spring. In the following slideshow, we will break down each player’s chance to remain with the major league club once the regular season begins on a scale of zero to 100 percent. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Things to Look for in Spring Training

Pitchers and catchers reported to Clearwater, Fla. earlier this week, and that means a new Philadelphia Phillies season is just around the corner.

For the first time since 2008, the Phillies are not the defending NL East champions. However, 2008 was the year the Phillies won their second World Championship in their club’s history. So will this be a season to remember or a season we hope soon to forget?

Here are five things as Phillies fans we should look for in spring training to tell if the Phils have a shot at the NL East title this year.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Options If Kendrick or Lannan Need Replacements

The Philadelphia Phillies’ pitchers and catchers are set to have their first official workouts today, beginning the process of answering a handful of questions before the regular season begins.

Is Roy Halladay 100 percent healthy?  Who will claim the last four spots in the bullpen?  Which pitcher will get the nod on Opening Day?

However, some more decisions may have to be made once the regular season gets underway.

Although Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan are seemingly set to take the No. 4 and 5 spots in the Phillies’ starting rotation, neither has inspired the type of optimism throughout their careers like fellow starters Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Halladay have.

Kendrick tied a career high with 11 wins last season and had a career-best 116 strikeouts.  This was largely due to a tremendous late-season stretch that saw him go 6-4 with a 3.67 ERA and 47 strikeouts in August and September.

However, Kendrick also had a 6.96 ERA in six June starts, going 1-4 while allowing 25 earned runs in 32.1 innings as opponents batted .305 against him.

Lannan, meanwhile, only made six major league starts last season after getting bumped from the Washington Nationals’ starting rotation. Although he won at least eight games in each season from 2008-11, he also has a 4.16 ERA in his last 64 major league starts.

Both pitchers have had performances throughout their careers that could allow them to make for tremendous options as No. 4 and 5 starters, but they are also playing a position in which minor-league talent may soon be major-league ready.

Starting pitching is one of the positions the Phillies have minor-league depth at, which could make for some interesting decisions should Kendrick or Lannan struggle throughout the regular season.

If the Phillies decide that a replacement is needed at some point, here are five options that could make a case for a spot in the starting rotation.

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