Making the Case For, Against Each of Phillies’ Big 3 Starting on Opening Day

After a long, arduous and for the Philadelphia Phillies, somewhat confusing and disappointing offseason, the days until the first pitch of 2013 is thrown are finally winding down. Simply put, the baseball season is almost upon us.

As we speak, pitchers and catchers have already reported to duty and their position player teammates are sure not to be far behind. Already the weather in Philadelphia is improving and every one in the city is awaiting the return of their beloved Phils.

For fans this brings hope, joy, excitement, anticipation and of course, questions.

How will Chase Utley’s knees hold up? Will Ryan Howard’s power return? How in the world will the new outfield platoon work out? Where will the runs come from? What will come of the new bullpen?

And perhaps the most important and most immediate question, one that its answer will no doubt set the tone for the season: Which of the Big Three will get the nod to start Opening Day? 

Each of the three aces has an impressive enough resume to get the start but unlike in the past few years, it is not a clear cut choice. Roy Halladay is no longer the clear cut #1 on this team, Cliff Lee has been inconsistent and Cole Hamels is primed to be the ace of the future.

Still, there is no easy answer as all three aces will enter the 2013 season with a clean slate and on even ground. Any of the three can be given the start and when it comes down to it, there really is no bad choice. What there is however is a best choice.

Here are the pros and cons to each of the big three getting to throw the first pitch of the 2013 Phillies’ season. 

 

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MLB Spring Training 2013: Philadelphia Phillies’ Packing Needs for Clearwater

Last week, with great fanfare, the Philadelphia Phillies announced that the team’s equipment truck had departed for Clearwater, Fla.  It should be there and unpacked shortly for pitchers and catchers, who report to Bright House Field this week to begin spring training for the 2013 season.

The truck included the usual stuff baseball players require: cases of bubble gum and sun flower seeds, along with 350 pairs of shorts, 450 pairs of socks, 600 pairs of pants, 600 hats, 200 fleeces, 1,200 bats, 2,000 T-shirts, 2,400 baseballs, 10,000 12 oz. cups and 150 pairs of batting gloves.

It also contained some unusual items.  According to the Phillies website, the team also sent south “one wedding dress, four bridesmaids’ dresses, one groom’s suit, one groomsman’s suit…and one cake topper.” 

Don’t worry—the Phillie Phanatic is not eloping.  His heart remains with the Phillies.  The wedding gear belongs to Phillies director of baseball communications Greg Casterioto, who is getting married in Clearwater. 

There is one truck that better make good time.  A missing bat is one thing.  A missing wedding dress is a whole other thing, indeed!  Hope for the best.  Hope too that the Phillies put a few other unusual items on the truck this year.  These include:

 

1. A Mitt

For the first time in a while, Michael Young, the third baseman that the Phillies acquired from the Texas Rangers in the offseason, is going to need to use one of these things consistently.  Young started only 64 games at third base the last two seasons at Texas. 

The Phillies need Young to take the field a whole lot more than that.  In case the team forgot the lesson it learned in acquiring aging first baseman Jim Thome last year, there is no such thing as a designated hitter in the National League.

 

2. Milk

It does a body good, right?  It certainly does not run the risk of getting one suspended from the game.  In the past year, the Phillies have lost two players to suspensions for testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs.  Freddy Galvis, the team’s exciting young prospect at second base, received a 50-game suspension last June. 

That preceded the punishment meted out to Phillies veteran catcher Carlos Ruiz, a 25-game suspension that begins with Opening Day.  Numbers can be replaced.  Character cannot.

 

3. Seat Cushions

The infielders for the Phillies are not getting any younger.  Ryan Howard is 33, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins are 34 and the “new kid,” Michael Young, is 36.  And oh, by the way, Utley, Howard and Young are all vying to be candidates for comeback player of the year.  A career .301 hitter, Young hit only .277 last year for the Rangers while managing to hit eight home runs. 

Meanwhile, due to injuries, neither Utley nor Howard played meaningful baseball for the Phillies last year until July.  Rollins played all of last summer, but his batting average fell by 13 points in the season’s second half, from .256 to .243.            

If the Phillies want to get more “whiz” than “wheeze” from this infield, its members will require regularly scheduled rest.

 

4. Arm Rests 

Same for the pitching staff, particularly the big three.  Roy Halladay turns 36 in May while Cliff Lee celebrates his 35th   birthday this August.  Cole Hamels is only 29, but he constitutes a considerable investment for the franchise as the recipient last July of a contract extension for six years and $144 million. 

Manager Charlie Manuel must resist the pressure, especially early in the season, to let his three aces go deep into ballgames in search of wins.  The window to win with this set of arms is closing quickly.  Manuel must figure out a way to win early and save his aces to play later.

 

5. Base Hits

These are tough to pack and store for when you need them.  Still, for the Phillies to contend once more, the team needs to hit.  It really is that simple.  In baseball, hits often lead to runs.  These enable starting pitchers to exit earlier, aging infielders to rest more regularly and, most importantly, teams to win more consistently. 

Last year, the Phillies averaged only 4.22 runs per game, 19th in the majors, with as many losses as wins.  In 2008, the Phillies averaged 4.90 runs per game and won the World Series.  Maybe baseball is not that simple.  But what if it is?  Forget the bubble gum.  This year, pack some hits.

 

All statistics in this article are from www.baseball-reference.com.

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Predictions for Phillies’ Opening-Day 25-Man Roster Entering Spring Training

Building a roster isn’t easy. 

Sure, some decisions are easier than others. You’ll take the All-Star over the career minor leaguer and not think twice about it. Players owed more guaranteed money often have a much better shot of making the team. 

Even after you make those simple decisions, however, they aren’t always the right ones. Building a club isn’t a linear thought process. Sometimes, the handsomely paid players are blocking a cheap, but productive player from making the roster.

Spring training gives clubs an opportunity to evaluate their team from head to toe. Some camps are more interesting than others, with the 2013 Philadelphia Phillies being a case in point. 

This Phillies club is one that has the potential to look quite different from what most people would expect of them come Opening Day. Two positions in the outfield are essentially up for grabs, and what happens there will define what the bench looks like. 

Much of the same could be said for the bullpen, where things seem black and white, but are actually much more gray. 

Here’s how the Phillies’ roster could look come Opening Day.

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Phillies’ Prospects to Watch in Spring Training as Clearwater Welcomes Club Back

Because the Phillies strip-mined their minor league system chasing titles from 2009-2011, the “prospect” cupboard is pretty bare.

As explained by ESPN.com’s Keith Law in his recent ranking of the Phillies’ Top 10 prospects:

“Years of trades, surrendered draft picks and refusal to go give signing bonuses that exceed MLB‘s recommendations have taken their toll on a system that doesn’t look like it’ll spit out an average every-day position player until at least 2015….”

Yikes.

So the emphasis needs to turn to young players that Phillies fans have already seen in uniform.

It is hard to think of a more exciting young player on the Phillies roster than Darin Ruf.

Law was, to put it mildly, circumspect about Ruf‘s ability to produce at the game’s highest level. “Darin Ruf could do a little damage as a bench/platoon guy against left-handed bats, although I don’t think he’s a regular,” Law opined.

But the anecdotal evidence has Phillies fans dreaming of a modern-day Greg Luzinski.

Ruf teed off on Eastern League pitching at AA Reading on his way to winning the league’s Most Valuable Player award. Ruf then had the proverbial cup of coffee with the big club in September, hitting three home runs in 33 at-bats.

He finished his whirlwind 2012 by tearing up winter ball in Venezuela, per David Murphy of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Phillies’ fans are breathlessly awaiting Ruf‘s spring training at-bats to see whether he can still drive mistakes.

Phillippe Aumont went from laboring at AA Reading to making 18 somewhat unexpected appearances with the big club toward the end of the 2012 season.

Aumont made 18 appearances for the Phillies in 2012, even saving two games along the way. His 3.68 earned run average and 1.295 walks and hits per innings pitched were reasonably competent.

But Aumont walked nine batters in his 14.2 innings, muting some of the effect of his 14 strikeouts in that same amount of work.

The Phillies, and particularly Ruben Amaro Jr. (who still hears about the Cliff Lee trade that brought Aumont to Philadelphia), would love to see Aumont blossom into a late-inning force in 2013.

Domonic Brown has been wearing the “prospect” label now for what seems like half a decade. He is 25 years old. He only played 56 games for the Phillies last season. Is he still a “prospect”?

But for Brown’s prior status as an up-and-coming player, his .236 lifetime batting average in 147 games would probably have earned his release.

You do not need Keith Law’s acumen (significant though it is) to see that this is an aging Phillies team that will rely far more on resurgences from Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay in 2013 than it ever will on seeing breakout years from the likes of Ruf, Aumont and Brown.

But those three players are the “potential” guys in camp from whom the most can be expected, or at least hoped for.

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Philadelphia Phillies Who Need to Step Up in 2013

The 2012 season was a difficult one for the Philadelphia Phillies, but if some of their key contributors can step up their game, this season could find the Phillies right back on track.

Not having superstars Ryan Howard and Chase Utley for a long period is a big reason why the Phillies struggled. When those two returned, however, they just could not produce the way that Philly fans have grown accustomed to.

After an offseason in which the Phillies made some interesting moves, the team will look to improve from its 81–81 record last season.

For that to happen, some of the most important pieces to this squad need to put forth drastically improved performances in 2013. The Phillies absolutely need some players to step up this coming season.

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What Phillies Fans Have to Look Forward to Most in Spring Training

Just when you thought that you couldn’t be excited by a large, corporate truck, one rolls out of Citizens Bank Park loaded with baseball equipment headed for Clearwater, Florida and all of the sudden you find yourself anxiously awaiting another round of Philadelphia Phillies spring training. 

Well hold on to your hats, folks. This spring is going to be a unique one for the Phillies, packed to the brim with big storylines, small nuances, players recovering from injury, guys with something to prove this season, position battles and anything else you can dream up. 

So what should you be looking forward to this spring? 

It’s almost easy to get lost in all of the spring happenings, but fear not. This slideshow will serve as a dandy guide to draw your attention to some of the biggest eye-catchers this spring. There is a lot to look forward to this spring. 

Blink and you may miss it.

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Philadelphia Phillies Fans, Do Not Be so Quick to Write off Ryan Howard

As a devout Phillies fan, I will admit that I’ve not always been Ryan Howard‘s biggest fan. He cannot run particularly well, even when completely healthy, he strikes out too much and his fielding is mediocre, at best.

It is possible that we all had “Babe Ruth-type” expectations for the man after his Herculean 2006 NL MVP season, in which it seemed that nobody could pitch anywhere to him without serious reprisal. However, as is the case with many hitters—particularly power hitters—pitchers figured out ways to get the “Big Piece” out. 

That does not mean that the big man does not have value—extreme value—to the Phils, though. 

In this new age world of Sabermetrics, what the “new stat guys” fail to recognize, or at least admit, is that stats do not tell the whole story; they almost never do. You can give me all the WAR stats you want (an unreliable “stat” at best, and many believe it’s one that has not been accurate even within itself), but WAR does not measure the impact that a player’s presence has upon his lineup.

Ryan Howard is the “Big Piece” for a reason. 

Though the Phillies do have other dynamic and better overall players, nobody has the impact on the lineup that Howard does. 

Howard’s presence affects how everyone around him is pitched to. It is no coincidence that Jayson Werth’s best years by far came while hitting fifth behind the big man. His presence has also allowed Chase Utley to see better pitches over the brunt of his career.

Simply put, he scares opposing pitchers—even the left-handers that get him out more often than not.

However, that is not the only value that Howard has.

It comes down to this: For all of Ryan Howard’s inefficiencies, he is a run producer. This is a man who played approximately half of a season in 2012, hit below .220 and still was on pace for over 100 RBI. 

The man knocks in runs, plain and simple.

Does it frustrate me when he strikes out? Of course it does. Am I forced to admit that I’ll take the K’s with another 35/110 season? Absolutely!

Yes, Ryan Howard makes a lot of money to do what he does. Is he still the 40-45 homer 130-140 RBI guy that he was from 2006-09? Probably not. But is he a 30-35 homer 110-120 RBI guy? More than likely.

Is it okay with me that he makes all that money to give us that and provide that lineup presence? Absolutely, because we’ve seen what the Phils‘ lineup is like without Howard. 

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Ranking the Most Trustworthy Arms in the Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen

One of the Philadelphia Phillies’ biggest weaknesses in 2012 was their lack of reliable bullpen depth. Behind newly-signed closer Jonathan Papelbon, the Phillies lacked a true veteran presence to anchor their younger pitchers.

Options such as Jose Contreras and Michael Stutes, both pitchers who had experience out of the Phillies’ bullpen, were injured for most of the season, rendering the Phillies without any proven options besides Papelbon.

In the offseason, the Phillies filled the need in grand fashion, signing veteran right-handed setup man Mike Adams to a two-year contract worth $12 million.

Adams has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the last five years or so, but he did have surgery to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, making him a bigger risk. Luckily for the Phillies, that also means that Adams could come with a higher reward, and they signed him for a relative bargain as a result.

With Papelbon and Adams in tow, it seemed as though the Phillies were set internally to fill the remaining five bullpen spots. However, in an unexpected (and arguably redundant) move, the Phillies brought Chad Durbin back to town on a one-year deal early last week.

With three right-handed veteran arms and a relief spot likely guaranteed for left-hander Antonio Bastardo, only three relief positions remain for the Phillies. While the competition will be interesting to watch, it is a shame that some of the major league-ready arms the Phillies have will not have the opportunity to play at their skill level due to lack of space.

There are some arms who can be trusted in this Phillies bullpen and others who have a ways to go in that regard. The good news is that all the younger players who had experience last season have some major league experience under their belts and can be tweaked further if necessary in spring training.

For all intents and purposes, the seven arms I am going to rank in terms of dependability (and thus making the roster out of spring training) are Adams, Bastardo, Durbin, Justin De Fratus, Jeremy Horst, Papelbon and Stutes. Not all will be easy to rank in terms of statistics, so some subjectivity will have to be included in this piece.

Nevertheless, I give you the Phillies’ bullpen arms ranked by trustworthiness.

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Ranking the Phillies’ 25 Best Series on the 2013 Schedule

The 2013 Major League Baseball season is going to be unlike any you’ve ever seen before. 

Sounds dramatic, but with the Houston Astros setting off on their voyage of the American League West, that’s a fact. With each league now housing a balanced number of teams, this season really will be unlike any of its predecessors, playing host to more interleague play than in years past. 

For the Philadelphia Phillies and their fans, however, that statement rings particularly true. Not only will they face more American League teams, highlighted by at least one bout against every team in the American League Central, but they’ll face other challenges closer to home. 

The National League East is only getting better. The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves are two of the best teams in the National League. The Miami Marlins and New York Mets will have some young talent. 

The Phillies enter the 2013 season as a relative unknown. With an aging roster sprinkled with a few younger players, this could be a club that contends for a World Series, but it could also very well be a club “in transition.” 

But regardless of what happens, we’re looking forward to another season of baseball. Here are 25 of the best series the Phillies will play this upcoming season.

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Two Biggest Missed Opportunities This Offseason

The Philadelphia Phillies’ failure to sign B.J. Upton and Dan Haren in free agency may ultimately doom their 2013 playoff hopes.

It is not only that the Phillies will be without the benefits of those players’ services. It is that their division rivals, the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals, ended up with them.

Upton would have provided the Phillies with both a credible right-handed power threat and above-average defense in center field.

For the past decade, Philadelphia has had center field manned by excellent defensive players who could also hit. First Aaron Rowand and then Shane Victorino provided serious production from a position where good defenders who contribute offensively have traditionally been scarce.

The Phillies did plug the gaping hole Victorino left in center field by acquiring Ben Revere. This was not an altogether insufficient move. Revere is a terrific defensive outfielder with more than enough foot speed to play center field at Citizens Bank Park. And he projects to steal plenty of bases, too.

Unfortunately, his next major league home run will be his first, and as of this writing the Phillies are still not exactly sure where Revere should hit in the order.

Revere is a prototypical lead-off hitter. but Jimmy Rollins—who has led off for Philadelphia since before they began winning those five straight division titles—has resisted moving down in the order for anyone. Revere could end up hitting second or eighth as a result.

Acquiring B.J. Upton would have defused this issue. Upton would have slotted nicely into any number of slots in the lineup, from second to fifth to sixth on occasion.

Upton piles up three things: home runs, stolen bases and strikeouts (1,020 of them in 3,568 at-bats). His .256 career batting average compiled over seven seasons suggests that he is what he is and that potential is no longer a real consideration.

Just know that the Phillies would have lived with the empty at-bats from Upton given what the good at-bats could bring.

In 2013, the Revere acquisition will rise and fall on whether Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have one last healthy, productive campaign in them collectively. Revere can be counted on to score runs but he should not be expected to create them.

It is fair to ask why it says here that the Phillies missed an opportunity by seeing Dan Haren go to the Washington Nationals.

The Phillies are already paying over $20 million apiece to Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay in 2013. At some point, the spending on starting pitchers had to stop, right?

Maybe. But Dan Haren on a one-year contract for $13 million is a very wise upside investment from a Nationals team that, like the Phillies, already has excellent starting pitching.

Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman and Gio Gonzalez led the Nationals to the playoffs far more than Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth did.

Adding Haren to that staff puts the Nationals in position to run well above average starting pitching at the opposition four out of five nights.

Maybe Haren is not what he used to be, coming off a subpar season that saw his ERA lurch over four for the first time since 2010.

Then again, in 2011, Haren won 16 games.

Regardless, the Upton and Haren acquisitions starkly underline the fundamental difference between the Phillies and their division rivals in Atlanta and Washington.

The Phillies had already committed eight-figure salaries to seven players before free agents began signing after the 2012 season ended. The Phillies are stuck hoping that Utley, Howard, Halladay and others are still good enough to yield a return on the money they will be paid.

Comparatively, the teams the Phillies figure to chase in 2013 have money and time in their corner. The Nationals (Harper, Strasburg, Ian Desmond) and the Braves (Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel) have a lot of young, inexpensive talent on the roster.

So, the Braves can commit $75 million to B.J. Upton and hope that his attitude and his production will not dip now that he has been paid.

And the Nationals can gamble $13 million on Haren. If it does not work out, well, the team they had without him won the division last year.

At some level, the real missed opportunities for the Phillies came well before the 2012 offseason.

When they had the opportunities NOT to sign Howard to his $125 million extension, NOT to sign Lee to his $120 million deal, NOT to give Utley $15 million for 2013, they chose otherwise.

This offseason, those long-ago choices left the Phillies unable or unwilling to sign two premier free agents who ended up elsewhere in the National League East.

The Phillies likely feel no regret now.

But it may be coming.

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