Early-Season Philadelphia Phillies Story Lines to Follow Most Closely

The landscape of baseball in Philadelphia changed quickly and swiftly when the Phillies began their run of postseason trips, World Series appearances and of course, a parade down Broad Street in November of 2008.

For years, sports talker WIP was filtered with daily calls about the Eagles’ direction, fans lamenting the lack of clock management from Andy Reid and the big-game failures of Donovan McNabb.

Attending a game at Veterans Stadium or the new Citizens Bank Park in the early 2000’s was an open invitation to participate in E-A-G-L-E-S chants rather than breaking down David Bell’s swing.

As the fanbase emerged from a long, cold winter, so did the spotlight. When things are good, the fans will fill the stands and love their Phillies.

When they are bad, as they may be in 2013, the scrutiny will know no bounds.

Here are early-season story lines, both positive and negative, to follow most closely early this season.

 

 

Roy Halladay’s battle with decline

The signs of decline and waning confidence are impossible to miss when assessing Roy Halladay early on in 2013.

If Doc can’t locate his fastball, fix his mental block, make hitters uncomfortable in the box and continue to strike out hitters at a high rate, the Phillies are in trouble every time he takes the mound.

And make no mistake, Halladay will be taking the mound every fifth day (via Todd Zolecki MLBlogs Network). In fact, Charlie Manuel compared his loyalty towards Doc with what the team suffered through with Brad Lidge in 2009.

In other words, unless there is an injury, Halladay will make his scheduled starts throughout the season.

If he rebounds, Philadelphia will be rewarded with their patience. If he doesn’t, the team will suffer.

 

 

Chase Utley’s return to star status

From 2005-2010, Chase Utley put together one of the greatest offensive stretches for a second baseman in baseball history.

His .911 OPS and 133 OPS+ wasn’t just good; it was spectacular.

Second baseman, catchers, shortstops and center fielders are often judged by different offensive criteria. They’re not expected to hit like corner infielders and outfielders.

Isolating Utley’s ranks in comparison to other second baseman would make him look good; doing it against every hitter in baseball makes him look great.

The 133 OPS+ ranked 18th overall during that time frame. The .911 OPS was 12th.

Early on in 2013, after battling knee and hip ailments, Utley’s swing and torque in the box look like they did during his Hall of Fame-caliber seasons.

 

Cliff Lee‘s excellence and potential trade market

As Lee showed once again on Tuesday night, he’s still a tremendous pitcher. Throw out the substandard win-loss record of 2012—really throw out all W-L records out when assessing pitchers—and focus on the strike-throwing machine Lee continues to be for Philadelphia.

The 34-year-old lefty is probably a good bet to remain the best pitcher in Philadelphia through July. At that point, he may have a new address.

It’s no secret that Ruben Amaro Jr. shopped Lee and his hefty future price tag last July and August. If the Phillies are out of the race at that point this summer, it may be easier to make the move and clear future salary off the books.

The better Lee pitches over the next few months, the more leverage Amaro has in a possible deal. The franchise can either eat money and receive top prospects in return, expediting a rebuild, or convince a contender to take on the remainder of his excess contract.

 

Ryan Howard’s impotent bat

If not for Roy Halladay’s struggles, Ryan Howard’s swing would be the main topic of conversation in Philadelphia today. Despite his first long ball of the year on Tuesday night against the Mets, Howard’s early-season numbers are continuing a precipitous down trend that can’t be ignored.

The following are Howard’s year-by-year on-base plus slugging percentages from 2009-present:

2009: .931
2010: .859
2011: .835
2012: .718
2013: .464

Age, defensive shifts and injury have been the excuses over the past few seasons. Small sample size is the current defensive mechanism for the Howard supporters.

As all of Philadelphia will eventually realize, it’s not 2006 or 2007 anymore. That Ryan Howard is likely to never return.

That doesn’t mean he can’t be a decent or good slugger for Charlie Manuel, but he’s likely never going to be worth the $85 million he’s guaranteed to earn from 2014-2016, including a $10 million buyout prior to 2017.

 

Charlie Manuel’s future

Uncomfortable is the only word to describe the Phillies’ current system of managerial apprenticeship. It’s widely assumed that Ryne Sandberg, the one-time Phillie who got away, is the apple of the front office eye and the future manager in Philadelphia.

That’s what makes his inclusion on Charlie Manuel’s coaching staff so strange this season. Factor in Manuel’s desire to continue managing, perturbed attitude this spring and lack of contract beyond 2013, and there’s a situation that bears watching in Philadelphia.

If Philadelphia struggles, would management consider a switch from Manuel to Sandberg in midseason?

Would a big season cause Manuel to ask for, and receive, a contract extension, virtually costing the Phillies organization Sandberg for the second time?

Will the media and fans, vocal in their displeasure of Manuel as an in-game strategist (via charliesmanuel.org), call for his job if the gaffes continue?

Stability has been one of Philadelphia’s biggest attributes since Manuel walked in the door in 2005.

It may soon be one of their biggest question marks.

 

Which Phillies’ story line are you watching most closely?

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Players Who You Want Up Most with the Game on the Line

Allow me to set the scene.

It is Game 7 of the World Series and your team, let’s say the Philadelphia Phillies, is down by just one run in the bottom of the ninth. There are runners on second and third, so chances are any outfield hit is going to win the game. The problem is, the opposing team is throwing its closer and you are down to just one out, one strike remaining. This is your only chance to win the game.

And that is where the age-old, heavily debated, baseball question is asked: “With the game on the line, who do you want taking that final swing?”

Fans of every team everywhere and at every point in time have likely discussed, debated, analyzed and put some thought into who on their team they would want at the dish in a do-or-die situation.

The only problem for teams, however, is that more often than not, they really don’t have a choice of who takes the final swing. In fact, unless a pinch hitter is substituted, whoever just so happens to be up is the guy who will bat.

So with that being said, there are of course reasons why you want Ryan Howard taking the final swing as opposed to Freddy Galvis, for example.

These reasons include a certain confidence factor, the all-important and hopefully ever-present “clutch gene,” an overall recent body of work and of course, the ability to hit in tough situations with runners on base, an 0-2 count and an average with RISP.

Here are the five guys on the Phillies who meet most, if not all, of these requirements and really are the guys any fan would love to have at bat in the ninth inning or later with the game on the line.

Begin Slideshow

Exposing What Has Changed for Phillies’ Roy Halladay During Recent Tailspin

There’s clearly something wrong with Roy Halladay. Your eyes say so, and so do the gory numbers.

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ veteran right-hander has made two starts so far in 2013, and neither of them have been good. His totals: 7.1 innings pitched, 12 hits, six walks, three home runs, one hit batsman and two wild pitches.

Doc Halladay’s ERA after two starts is 14.73. His WHIP is 2.46. His confidence, meanwhile, has seen better days.

“This is a game of failure and I’ve had my fair share,” said Halladay after Monday’s beating at the hands of the New York Mets, via CSNPhilly.com. “Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s [rear]. I’ve been a horse’s [rear] for a little while. It’s something I’ve dealt with in the past and I think I can overcome.”

Maybe Halladay’s right, but he shouldn’t hold out hope of recapturing his old dominant ways from 2010 and 2011. It looks like that ship has sailed.

One way you can tell is by looking at Halladay’s velocity. It’s been at the center of all the “What’s wrong with Doc?” talk both in the early goings this season and most of last season, and the numbers reveal a clear decline that’s continuing so far this year.

To the right is a look at Halladay’s average sinker (i.e. two-seamer) and cutter velocity from 2010 until now, courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net.

The precise velocity numbers are going to differ depending on which site you consult. FanGraphs, for example, offers its own PITCHf/x data and data from Baseball Info Solutions. That noted, the trend is the same there: Halladay’s velocity is clearly down.

One acceptable objection to this data is that Halladay’s in the same boat as every other pitcher this time of year—he’s still building arm strength. Once he has it, his velocity will be there.

Fair enough, so let’s narrow things down a little and compare Halladay’s average sinker and cutter velocity from his first two starts this year to his average sinker and cutter velocity from 2011 and 2012 (there doesn’t appear to be any record for his first start in 2010, so we’ll skip that year).

Here you can see that Halladay had about the same kind of zip on his sinker and cutter on Monday night against the Mets that he did in his first start last year. That’s a revelation that’s slightly more encouraging than the above revelation. 

The key word there, however, is “slightly.”

The velocity readings here are still down relative to where Halladay was in 2011, a year in which he finished second in the National League Cy Young balloting on the strength of a 19-6 record and a 2.35 ERA. However, you’ll notice by comparing the two graphs that his final velocity readings for 2011 really weren’t that far off from his early-April velocity readings

You can see by comparing the two graphs that Halladay’s velocity didn’t budge much throughout the 2012 season either. His player card on BrooksBaseball.net will show that he added some velocity in May, but then he came down with that shoulder injury that sidelined him through mid-July and effectively killed his quest to regain his velocity.

That’s both encouraging and discouraging at the same time.

It’s encouraging because Halladay may have finished last season with respectable velocity readings had he not hurt his shoulder, which means he might be able to ramp up his velocity this year if his shoulder behaves.

It’s discouraging, however, because it’s impossible to ignore the correlation between Halladay’s increasing velocity in May last year and his sudden shoulder injury. The fact that he didn’t ramp up his velocity the rest of the year could be taken as a sign that his shoulder can now only handle so much.

The radar gun readings aren’t the only thing that makes you wonder about Halladay’s shoulder. 

If you’ve been paying attention to the Halladay doom watch, you’ll know that low velocity readings aren’t the only cause for concern around the campfire. There’s also been talk about his arm slot, as Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer noted after Halladay’s first start against the Atlanta Braves.

Here’s where I can’t resort to fancy graphics to show you what’s going on, because, well, the fancy graphics I want to show you don’t belong to me. The best I can do is point you in the right direction.

What I want you to do is open up three tabs: One for Halladay’s start against the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS, one for a start he made against the Atlanta Braves last September 22, and one for his start against the Mets on Monday night. All three starts were at Citizens Bank Park, so we’re talking about the same mound being in play.

Now I want you to scroll down on each one to the graphs titled “Release Point.” If you look at the vertical location, you’ll notice that the height of Halladay’s release point goes from above six feet, to right about at six feet to below six feet.

If you can see that, then you can see what all the fuss is about. Halladay is throwing from a different arm slot, and it is lower.

One explanation for this is the shoulder injury Halladay suffered last year. It could also be intentional, which is certainly possible seeing as how there was a report from Todd Zolecki of MLB.com in March that Halladay was working to “fix some things with his delivery.” 

Regardless of the explanation, we know we’re watching a different Doc. He’s throwing differently, and he’s not throwing hard.

As for deception, well, consider the following. It’s a look at how hitters have performed against Halladay’s four primary pitches (sinker, cutter, curveball, splitter/split-change) since 2010, including his first two starts this year. If you don’t know what ISO is, it stands for Isolated Power and it’s essentially a slugging percentage that doesn’t take singles into account.

You can see that the slow stuff is working just fine in the early goings. Halladay’s only given up a couple hits on his primary off-speed pitches, and it’s worth noting that they’re responsible for 11 of his 12 strikeouts on the young season.

But the hard stuff? Not so much. A look back at the three homers Halladay has given up can give us a clue as to why that is.

The following links will take you over to MLB.com for the video highlights, but I’m going to provide some screencaps and some commentary along the way.

For starters, take a look at the pitch that Justin Upton launched for a homer off Halladay.

You can see that Erik Kratz set up low and inside for what looked like a cutter meant to freeze Upton for strike three. Instead, watch how the pitch floated over the middle of the plate—”no bueno” territory for any pitcher.

Granted, at least the pitch was a low one. Halladay may have gotten away with it if he was facing a lesser hitter. But he was facing a very good, very hot hitter, and said hitter didn’t miss.

Now take a look back at the ball that Evan Gattis sent out of the yard. While watching the video, look where Kratz sets up and then watch where the pitch ends up.

You’ll see that Kratz set up low and away for a pitch on the black, but that the pitch Halladay threw was an 88-mile-per-hour heater with virtually no movement that ended up right at Gattis‘ belt on the inside part of the plate. 

That’s the kind of mistake you can make if you’re throwing 98 MPH, but not 88. Sure enough, Gattis murdered it.

And lastly, check out the pitch that John Buck hit out of the yard on Monday night. Once again, watch where the catcher set up and where the pitch went.

Humberto Quintero set up on the outside corner to receive the pitch, and Halladay at least got the ball to the right side of the plate. However, he left it a little higher than Buck’s knees, and Buck put a very good swing on it for a home run to the opposite field.

So, of the three homers Halladay has given up this year, it’s fair to say that all three came on mistake pitches.

That would be forgivable if this was 2010 or 2011, but it’s not so forgivable now, because A) we know that Halladay isn’t making few mistakes and B) he’s clearly not going to be able to get away with the ones he does make.

Halladay’s command has been all over the place thus far. He’s walked six men in 7.1 innings, and FanGraphs‘ plate discipline data shows that, not surprisingly, he’s throwing fewer pitches inside the strike zone (look at Zone%). What’s worse is that the three pitches we just looked at show that Halladay’s command within the strike zone is lacking, and that, again, he just doesn’t have the stuff to get away with mistakes.

And that, obviously, is not the Halladay we all used to know and love. The Halladay we all knew and loved had some of the best pinpoint control in the business, not to mention stuff that had a fair amount of zip and absolutely no regard for the laws of physics.

If you’re an optimist, you see that Halladay is working with a new release point and that he’s still working out the kinks. He didn’t get much of a spring training, after all, as he was bothered by an illness and had to labor through some short outings.

But it’s nigh impossible to be anything other than realistic about what’s going on. Halladay looked like a ruined pitcher last season when he posted a 4.93 ERA in 14 starts after coming back from the disabled list in July, and he looks like even more of a ruined pitcher now.

That’s my smarty-pants assessment of what’s become of Halladay. My not-so-smarty-pants assessment of him can be summed up with two words that I think everyone will agree with: This sucks.

 

Note: Special thanks to BrooksBaseball.net for the data.

 

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4 Things We Have Already Learned About Roy Halladay in 2013

Roy Halladay came into the 2013 season with question marks surrounding his performance as a co-ace in the Philadelphia Phillies rotation.

Through two awful, uncharacteristic starts, Doc is leaving fans and analysts with more questions than answers. His 14.73 ERA isn’t just unsightly; it’s unfathomable.

That is, of course, until you watch and dissect what he’s doing or, more aptly, not doing on the mound.

It’s early, but Doc’s season and career have reached a crossroads. For the Phillies to rebound from the disappointment of an 81-81 campaign in 2012, Halladay’s performance is crucial.

As he searches for answers, trends in his performance and approach can be spotted.

Here are four things we have already learned about Roy Halladay in 2013.

 

1. He doesn’t trust his fastball

Percentage of time Roy Halladay has thrown his fastball since arriving in Philly, 2010-present, year-by-year: 37.4, 22.6, 19.4, 17.9. Yikes.

The main concern around Doc has been velocity, but surviving in the 87-89 mph range can happen for a smart, efficient pitcher if he trusts himself to locate that pitch on the corners and down in the zone.

Those numbers, via the indispensable Baseball Info Solutions, show a pitcher who is more comfortable throwing breaking and off-speed stuff, regardless of the count or batter.

Much of Doc’s greatness stems from getting ahead in the count. That’s something he’s failing to do at an alarming rate early in the season.

Last week, Halladay only threw 57.9 percent of his pitches for strikes in Atlanta. In 378 career starts, he’s only posted a lower percentage in 15 of those starts. On Monday, he got ahead with first-pitch strikes to only 10 of the 22 hitters faced. No matter how good his secondary stuff is, Halladay must get ahead with his fastball to survive.

When he throws the fastball, he lacks command and falls behind. Thus, he’s abandoning the pitch almost entirely, narrowing the options for hitters to focus on.

 

2. Mental, not physical, issues are the problem

That’s the explanation Halladay gave to reporters in Philadelphia on Monday night. If that is the case, the bigger issue might be Doc reverting into the pre-star form he showed in Toronto.

When Halladay lost the strike zone, was unable to retire hitters with any regularity and became mentally lost as a young pitcher, Toronto sent him down to Low-A ball. That’s the story fans have heard over and over.

What’s less publicized is the guidance provided by the late sports psychologist Harvey Dorfman.

Halladay mentioned a quote that Dorfman relayed to him when assessing his mental issues on the mound.

“Harvey used to tell me when you try to catch a bird, if you’re flailing at it, trying to grab for it, you’re never going to catch it,” Halladay said to CSN Philly. “You have to hold your hands out and let it land in your hands. It’s the same way with pitching. You have to stick to your routine, stick to your program and let it come to you.”

It’s clear that one of the smartest and most cerebral pitchers in baseball is over-thinking his approach on the mound.

 

3. Opposing batters are no longer uncomfortable in the box

Usually terms like “uncomfortable” are reserved for power pitchers and hard-throwers. For example, Matt Harvey, the young, ascending Mets right-hander, made the Phillies batters look uncomfortable all night long.

In his prime, despite never possessing an overpowering fastball like Randy Johnson or Justin Verlander, Halladay had the ability to make the box batters enter his domain—intimidating for hitters to step in and never a place to feel comfortable.

Due to his inconsistency, lack of confidence and an even further drop in velocity, that feeling is gone.

In the fourth inning of Monday night’s game with New York, Matt Harvey, the opposing pitcher, worked a nine-pitch at-bat. To put that in perspective, Halladay has twice thrown complete games with less than 90 total pitches. If Matt Harvey can battle and foul pitches off, real hitters can tee-off.

It took 95 pitches for Doc to get through 3.1 IP in Atlanta. Monday night, 99 were needed to retire 12 batters. At this rate, we’ll never see another complete game from Halladay again.

 

4. An encouraging sign: Halladay is still missing bats at a high rate

As with everything else, this should be prefaced with the following words: Small. Sample. Size.

That being said, Halladay does have one thing going for him early on this season: strikeouts.

In fact, his 12 strikeouts in 7.1 IP is good enough for a rate of 14.73 per nine innings. Never known as a strikeout pitcher—career average of 6.94 per nine—Halladay is generating swings and missing with two strikes using his off-speed stuff.

Can this rate continue? It would be highly, highly unlikely. Even if it came down to around eight or nine Ks per nine, Doc will be in a better position to succeed. For all that will be made about his unsightly ERA, his current xFIP (4.04), which factors in K-rate and league average FB/HR percentage, isn’t horrible.

To reclaim success or “re-invent” himself, Halladay might need to strike hitters out at a higher rate. During his first start in Atlanta, 90 percent of his outs were via strikeout. The 10 batters who didn’t post a K went 6-for-7 with two home runs.

While the notion of a declining pitcher striking more batters out as age creeps up and velocity ticks down may seem strange, take a look at what Andy Pettitte did last year for the New York Yankees.

Despite the lowest average fastball velocity (87.8) of his long career, Pettitte struck out more batters per inning (8.24) than in any season since 2004. In fact, that number represented the highest strikeout rate of his entire career.

Halladay is in decline, but it doesn’t mean he can’t generate strikeouts.

What is your level of concern with Roy Halladay?

Comment below, follow me on Twitter @JoeGiglioSports or “Like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball.

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Most Critical Takeaways from Philadelphia Phillies’ Opening Week

It hasn’t been the start to this season that anybody with the Philadelphia Phillies had been hoping for or expecting, including their front office, manager Charlie Manuel, his players and their fans.

The Phillies currently stand at 2-5, thanks to Kevin Frandsen’s base-clearing walk-off game-winner  in the middle game of their series against the Kansas City Royals.

While there have been a few areas of hope for this team, most facets of the squad have been out of sync and unproductive.

Let’s take a look at a few takeaways from the Phillies’ first seven games. No need to hit the panic button yet Phillies fans, but keep it close, as always. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Stock Up, Stock Down for Top 10 Prospects in Week 1

For the Phillies‘ top 10 prospects (per Baseball America), the first handful of games of their respective seasons have yielded divergent results.

This is admittedly the ultimate “small sample size” analysis—none of these players is even a full week into the season.

But the analysis has to start somewhere, and these games count as much as any others this season.

 

STOCK UP

Jesse Biddle: The best young arm in the organization is off quite well, with six strong innings (one earned run on two hits) in a win over the New Hampshire Rock Cats for Double-A Reading.

Roman Quinn: Jimmy Rollins’ likely heir apparent is hitting .333 at Class-A Lakewood with three stolen bases in four games.

Adam Morgan: In the rotation for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Morgan took a no-decision against the Syracuse Chiefs in his first start of the season, but the numbers (six innings, six hits, two earned runs, five strikeouts) were the sort of numbers that win games.

Darin Ruf: Good stuff from Ruf, who is shaking off what had to be a disappointing spring by hitting .294 with a couple of doubles in 17 at-bats at Lehigh Valley thus far.

Carlos Tocci: The 17-year-old phenom is going to be eased in some at Lakewood, but through two games he is hitting .286.

 

STOCK DOWN

Tommy Joseph: The possible replacement for Carlos Ruiz (Chooch’s contract is up after 2013), Joseph is scuffling at Lehigh Valley with a .167 batting average and no extra-base hits in three games.

Jonathan Pettibone: Another highly regarded starter in the system, Pettibone was cuffed around by the Syracuse Chiefs in his initial start—six earned runs on eight hits and three walks in 5.1 innings.

Ethan Martin: The young right-handed starter lasted only 4.1 innings, yielding four earned runs on three hits and four walks against the Syracuse Chiefs.

Cody Asche: With Michael Young tending third base on a one-year deal, the Phillies are hoping Asche can develop quickly enough to take over sooner than later. But Asche‘s .125 average, .188 slugging percentage and .222 on-base percentage through four games will not do it.

Maikel Franco: Speaking of third base, the 20-year-old Franco is off to a slow start at Class-A Advanced Clearwater, hitting .143 and slugging .214.

 

QUICK READ

Ruf remains the most likely call-up of these 10 players. He probably will not make it up before Memorial Day, particularly if Delmon Young gets back from his injury on the expected timetable.

And none of the starting pitchers is likely to see Philadelphia unless the Phillies fall out of the race early and start unloading the likes of Roy Halladay and (sad to say) Cliff Lee for whatever they can get.

Still, with the Phillies stumbling out of the gate (again), an occasional look to the future this season will probably be worthwhile.

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Phillies Need Strong Start from Kyle Kendrick with Halladay’s Struggles

The Philadelphia Phillies haven’t had the strong start to the season they had hoped, and starting pitching has been a big part of the reason. Cole Hamels gave up five earned runs in five innings in his debut, while Roy Halladay only made it through 3.1 innings and gave up five runs of his own. Cliff Lee, however, pitched great in his debut with only two hits in eight scoreless innings.

Now, it is time for Kyle Kendrick to take the mound in 2013, and he starts against the Kansas City Royals. In the Phillies’ home opener, the fourth pitcher on the rotation looks to build off his success from the end of last season.

But Kendrick has had an erratic career with the Phillies thus far.

He started 20 games in his first season in 2007 and posted a 10-4 record with a 3.87 ERA. The following year, Kendrick’s performance declined, as he finished 11-9 with a 5.49 ERA. In 2012, Kendrick resumed his place in the starting rotation after a few stints in the minors and the bullpen, where he added an effective changeup to his arsenal.

The 28-year-old did not get off to a fast start, but after the All-Star break, Kendrick had a record of 9-4 with a 2.87 ERA. The most promising aspect of that stretch was that Kendrick made it through six innings or more in eight out of his last 10 starts.

His consistency has never been more important than it will be this season. With the aging and ailing Halladay and the loss of Vance Worley, Kendrick has the opportunity to become the third ace on the pitching staff. Halladay may take time to return to 100 percent or may never actually get back there, so Philadelphia has to look to Kendrick to fill this void.

Spring training, however, did not signal strong hope for the right-handed pitcher, as he went 1-3 with a 6.88 ERA, but the regular season is a different animal.

Kendrick kicks off 2013 in Citizens Bank Park against 27-year-old Wade Davis. In 2010 and 2011, Davis had started 29 games in each season for the Tampa Bay Rays, yet he was a member of the bullpen in 2012. He now returns to a starting role for the Kansas City Royals.

Fortunately, Kendrick will not face off against a tough pitcher when more than 45,000 Phillies fans watch the team take the home field for the first time in 2013.

It is hard to predict how Kendrick will perform this season when he is assured to be pitching every five days, but the end of last season showed potential. Kendrick’s newly acquired changeup combined with his intimidating sinker has given him more confidence as he hopes to improve the Phillies’ starting rotation this season. 

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Why Domonic Brown and Michael Young Are Keys to Phillies’ Season

There are a lot of questions surrounding the aging Philadelphia Phillies as we kick off the 2013 season, such as if their starting pitching can return to dominance and if they’ll be able to put runs on the board, unlike last season. Adding to these questions are newcomers and young players with something to prove, and two Phillies in particular will be instrumental in Philadelphia’s success this year.

 

Michael Young

Although he’ll be playing third base for the Phillies, the longtime Texas Ranger is naturally a shortstop who played more and more games as the DH in the last few seasons. Young is getting up there in age, but has proven to be a consistent player throughout his career. Through 13 years, the 36-year-old has batted .301 but has recently shown a decline.

In 2012, Young saw his worst batting average (.277), slugging percentage (.370) and on-base percentage (.312) since 2002, his first full year as a starter. Young will be batting fifth in the lineup, behind Ryan Howard. The hard-hitting first baseman has the potential to change games with a swing of his bat and if he has a good year, then Young will be forced into many clutch situations.

The fear Howard can put in opposing teams forces them to intentionally walk him sometimes, leaving Young with multiple RBI opportunities. This also means that if Young is hitting well, then teams will be afraid to pitch around Howard.

His lack of experience at third combined with his age could really help or hurt the Phils this season, too. Young has played in over 155 games every season since 2002, but in his last two seasons in Texas, he only started 83 games in the field—only 25 games at third base, where he committed two errors.

 

Domonic Brown

At only 25 years old, Brown has been a promising prospect for the Philadelphia Phillies, but has yet to break out and impress. Two seasons ago, Brown hit .245 in 184 at-bats and in 2012 he batted .235 with 187 plate appearances. Well, this season Brown gets to start in left field, really getting the opportunity to become the star the organization hoped he would be.

On a team filled with aging All-Stars, Brown is a young athlete who has plenty of speed and power. He’ll be batting behind Young in the sixth position, but that could change if he shows major improvement.

If the Phillies hope to make it to the playoffs, they not only will need to avoid down years from top players like Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins, but Brown must also break out of his shell. The offense lacked firepower last year and he could be the one to bring it in 2013. 

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Potential in-Season Trades the Philadelphia Phillies Will Need to Make

The topic of prospective trades to be considered by the Philadelphia Phillies needs to be broken down into two sections, because I can see the season going one of two ways: It can go really, really bad or it can go just good enough to make a run at a playoff spot following some trade-deadline reinforcements.

I’m leaning towards this being a very bad season in Philly, one in which they are well out of the playoff race in July and looking to sell off a few free agents-to-be.

My other scenario has them somewhere within reach of a wild card spot in mid-July, but obviously not good enough to actually get there with the current 25-man roster in place. As opposed to 2012 when they traded off some key pieces (Joe Blanton, Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino) despite being down but not out of it, the Phillies should look to add this time around and take one last shot with this veteran group of players.

Here’s whom they’d look to trade if they’re sellers come July…

 

Carlos Ruiz, C

Once he returns from a 25-game suspension for a positive amphetamine test, Ruiz will have a couple of months to prove to contending teams looking for catching help that his 2012 season wasn’t a fluke. 

At 33 years of age, Ruiz had career highs in almost every offensive category (.325 BA, .540 SLB, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 32 2B, 56 R) despite playing in only 114 games because of a season-ending foot injury.

Even if he’s closer to the pre-2012 version offensively, Ruiz still has value as a veteran catcher with terrific defensive skills, leadership and ability to come up with the clutch hit.

The Phillies will be hoping he can continue to rake as he did for most of last season, which would put them in position to ask for a very good prospect in return for two-plus months of Ruiz. He’s currently in the final year of his contract.

Several teams, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees, could all have interest if they are in buying mode.

 

Chase Utley, 2B

He’ll fall just short of the 10-5 category (10 years in the majors, five years with the same team) that would allow him full no-trade rights. Therefore, the Phillies can shop him to at least a list of teams not included in his partial no-trade clause.

Of course, Utley can waive those rights in order to go to a contending team in the last year of his contract with the Phillies. The 34-year-old appears fully recovered from the knee injury that kept him out until late June in 2012. He had a terrific spring (.875 OPS) and is off to a 4-for-9 start on the season with a homer, double and triple.

Chase Utley is a different person this spring. Last spring, he was hurt and reclusive. This spring, he is healthy, and vibrant

—Tim Kurkjian (@Kurkjian_ESPN) February 26, 2013

 

The Oakland A’s, Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals are just a handful of teams who could be looking for an upgrade at second base in July. A healthy Utley, who is making $15 million in 2013, could fetch the Phillies a top prospect if another team were to take on some of his remaining salary.

 

Michael Young, 3B

The 36-year-old might be down to his last chance to prove he’s still an everyday player in the big leagues. Teams will have interest whether he is or not. He does still have plenty of believers out there, including old teammates:

Mike Napoli on former Rangers teammate Michael Young, now with the Phillies: “He’ll have 200 hits this year.” @mlbonfox

—Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) February 17, 2013

 

He can still play both corner infield spots and would be a terrific option to have coming off the bench late in games during a pennant race.

The Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates are a few of the National League teams that would have a spot for him as a primary pinch-hitter and part-time starter at first and third, while the Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles are two American League teams that could give him regular at-bats against left-handed pitching.

 

Roy Halladay, SP

Major concerns surround Halladay right now after the 35-year-old veteran struggled in spring training and was knocked out in the fourth inning of his regular season debut on Wednesday.

According to many, he just doesn’t look like the same guy. Here’s an ESPN recap on his first start, which includes some quotes from an unimpressed scout.

So who is going to trade for Halladay if he continues to struggle? That’s easy. Any team looking for pitching help and hoping to get a huge discount on a future Hall of Famer. So most contending teams will at least be asking about him.

The question is how much of his remaining salary will the Phillies take on and what level of prospect will they seek in return? Halladay also has a $20 million option for 2014 that will vest with 225 innings.

For him to reach that mark, he’d have to be pitching very well, so it shouldn’t be a huge hurdle in trade talks since his value would be much higher.

And here’s whom the Phillies could potentially target if playoff hopes are still alive at midseason:

 

Chase Headley, San Diego Padres  

With a decent option in place at the hot corner in Michael Young, and solid depth behind him in Freddy Galvis and Kevin Frandsen, it doesn’t make sense to look for an upgrade unless it’s an elite player.

Headley is an elite third baseman who might be available.

Acquiring Headley would be costly, but the Padres could be intrigued by a package that included Galvis, who would likely be their starting shortstop with Everth Cabrera possibly moving to second and Jedd Gyorko replacing Headley at third. The deal would be centered around one of their top pitching prospects (Jesse Biddle or Adam Morgan) and could also include one of their third base prospects (Maikel Franco or Cody Asche) and another high-ceiling prospect in the low minors.

For one-and-a-half years of Headley, that might be a bit much, but it could also mean another run at the playoffs if the 28-year-old switch-hitter can repeat his second-half performance of 2012 (.978 OPS).

 

Michael Morse, 1B/OF, Seattle Mariners

He won’t offer much defensively, but the right-handed slugger would fit nicely in the middle of a lineup that is currently left-handed heavy. The 31-year-old had nine homers in 20 spring games and has already hit three in his first 13 plate appearances of the regular season.

If the Mariners are out of the playoff race, they’ll look to deal Morse, who will be a free agent after the season. Don’t think the Phillies aren’t aware of his career success at their home ballpark (18-for-51, 5 HR, 13 RBI).

Acquiring Morse in late July would make their lineup down the stretch look something like this:

1) Ben Revere, CF  2) Jimmy Rollins, SS  3) Chase Utley, 2B  4) Ryan Howard, 1B  5) Michael Morse, LF  6) Domonic Brown, RF  7) Carlos Ruiz, C  8) Michael Young, 3B 

The Phillies might have to give up their best pitching prospect not named Biddle or Morgan. That would likely be Ethan Martin (3.48 ERA, 8.4 K/9 in 27 Double-A starts in 2012) or Jonathan Pettibone (3.10 ERA, 6.4 K/9 in 26 starts between Triple-A and Double-A in 2012).

Giving up one of those two prospects would be totally worth it, though, if the team is playing well and within striking distance of a playoff spot.

 

Lucas Harrell, Houston Astros

If the Phils are in buying mode, there’s a good chance Halladay has turned things around and the back-of-the-rotation duo of Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan are doing well.

Just in case they’re hanging in there despite that not happening, Harrell could be a good candidate to succeed in the Phillies rotation.

The 27-year-old was third in the majors with ground ball ratio of 57.2 percent, which is important since fly balls often have a good chance of departing Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

He was at it again in his 2013 debut, holding the Rangers to one run in six innings while inducing nine ground ball outs. It won’t take a top-10 prospect to land him, so he could be an intriguing option. A potential late-inning reliever like Jake Diekman or Justin De Fratus, along with a mid-level prospect, might be enough to land a solid workhorse like Harrell down the stretch. 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

MLB Picks: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cliff Lee is 15-8 with a 2.95 ERA in 34 career starts in April, which is important to consider when making your MLB picks Thursday night as he prepares to take on the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field.

Sports bettors will find that the Phillies are plus-115 road underdogs in the pro baseball odds (courtesy of SBR Forum), while the total sits at seven in the market.

Let’s take a closer look at this National League East matchup from a betting perspective, while offering up a pick along the way.

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