Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Starters Most in Danger of Losing Their Spot in 2013

Baseball is back. Phillies baseball is back.

Although the Philadelphia Phillies lost to the Atlanta Braves on Opening Day behind Cole Hamels, there is still plenty of reason to be optimistic about the season. Chase Utley looked reminiscent of his 2009 days. Ben Revere demonstrated his baserunning abilities and an ability to direct the ball where he pleases. Domonic Brown looked pretty good offensively. And Ryan Howard seemed to run down the baseline rather well, given his circumstances.

However, with the season comes changes from time to time. Already the Phillies have made a roster move, claiming outfielder Ezequiel Carrerra off waivers from the Cleveland Indians and designating Rule 5 pick Ender Inciarte in a corresponding move, per CSNPhilly.com. This means that, barring any unexpected developments, Inciarte will be returned to the Diamondbacks without having seen any official major-league action.

While Inciarte was the sacrificial lamb for a move the Phillies felt upgraded their bench options, could any Phillies starters be on the hot seat? Baseball is a volatile sport, and if a player fails to live up to expectations, he’ll be sent out the door in the blink of an eye.

Regardless of the cause, here are five Phillies starters—whether in the rotation or playing every day—who could be in jeopardy of losing their spot in the 2013 season.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Addressing the Roy Halladay Question from Within

Roy Halladay has become a disaster.

Concerns in spring training over Halladay’s pitching prowess cascaded into the regular season Wednesday night when the former Philadelphia Phillies ace allowed five earned runs in 3.1 innings pitched.

Despite the horrific outing, optimists will beat their drums over Halladay’s nine strikeouts in less than four innings. Either way, the bitter overcomes the sweet in this entire ordeal. Doc is no longer the pitcher baseball fans have grown accustomed to; Halladay has changed and it will only be for the worse so long as he does not adapt.

According to Dictionary.com, realism is an “interest in or concern for the actual or real, as distinguished from the abstract, speculative, etc.” It is now time to be adherent to realism.

On Wednesday, Halladay delivered a spike in velocity from his innings pitched in Clearwater, Florida. However, the vast majority of the pitches thrown were sinkers or cutters; therefore, the lack of fastballs may have prolonged a looming decline in velocity later in the game. At any rate, this decline appears perpetual.

A subjective debate could ensue for ages as to whether or not Halladay’s ills are mental or physical. We simply do not know. What we do know is that something has changed. Addressing the issue of Halladay’s evolution (or devolution), requires the forethought of turning inward and analyzing whether or not the answer can be found within the organization.

So long as Halladay’s performance is detrimental to the club, the Phillies must act. If not, the boo birds will be singing in Citizen’s Bank Park.

 

 

 

In answering the Halladay question from within the Phillies organization, three pitchers come to mind. Lefty Jesse Biddle and right-handed throwers Tyler Cloyd and Jonathan Pettibone are the most talented pitchers down on the farm.

With a four-pitch repertoire, Biddle has the most upside of the trio; however, 2013 will be the first season he’ll pitch beyond Single-A. An All-Star in the Florida State League, Biddle will likely emerge as a formidable starter, but he is at the very least one year away from a rotation spot with the Phillies.

Cloyd, an 18th-round pick in the 2008 MLB Draft, surprised many last year as he ascended from the depths of the farm system to a prominent late-season role in the majors. While Cloyd did make one appearance in 2011, his rapid climb in 2012 astonished onlookers.

Without many tricks up his sleeve, Cloyd relies on precise control to be effective. Having little margin of error, it’s unlikely he could be a fixture at the back end of a rotation for many years at the major league level. If anything, Cloyd represents a limited band-aid to the woes the Phillies face from the uncertainty regarding Halladay. 

The present solution appears to be Pettibone. Working downhill due to his tall frame, Pettibone is stockpiling a three-pitch variety while continuing to work on his cutter. With an effortless delivery, he appears to have the makeup to endure through an entire season of pitching from day one.

 

 

Pettibone lacks the ceiling of Biddle, but he currently provides the most stability. Despite missing the ability to maintain a high strikeout rate, he will be a manageable innings eater in the middle of the rotation. 

Naysayers will pump their chest and declare this to be an overreaction to Halladay’s woes. Simply put, they are wrong. Jumping off of the Halladay bandwagon last season would have been an overreaction.

Realistically pointing out Halladay’s deficiencies as they are is a confirmation of the ills which are troubling him. No longer a spring chicken, the soon-to-be 36-year-old has become more of a liability than a contributor to a club that has the potential to compete in the postseason. 

If nothing else, Halladay’s inability to hack it makes the Phillies worse, not better. It is time to answer the Halladay question. At this point in time, that answer can only come from within.

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It’s Not Too Early for Philadelphia Phillies to Fear the Worst with Roy Halladay

Wednesday was Roy Halladay‘s chance to put all the concerns to rest. All he had to do was pitch well against the Atlanta Braves, and the Philadelphia Phillies could have breathed a collective sigh of relief.

That didn’t happen.

Instead of giving the Phillies and their fans reasons to relax, Halladay gave them reasons to gather around the giant panic button (if there is one) in the heart of Philadelphia.

The veteran right-hander’s 2013 debut saw him last only three-and-a-third innings and surrender five earned runs on six hits and three walks. Two of the hits he gave up left the ballpark: one off the bat of Justin Upton, and the other off the bat of Evan Gattis (the first of his career).

The bright side is that nine of the 10 outs Halladay recorded came by way of the strikeout. The not-so-bright side, obviously, is the fact that he only got 10 outs. 

Ordinarily, bad first starts like this one can be forgiven. They can certainly be forgotten if the pitcher who put up the stinker finds his way the rest of the season.

But this one? Those hopes of yours better not get too high.

It was clear early on that Halladay’s stuff was not going to be good. He was getting his hard stuff over the plate in the 87-90 miles-per-hour range, which is where he resided for most of 2012. Per FanGraphs, his average fastball velocity tumbled from 92.0 miles per hour in 2011 to 90.6 miles per hour, and his average cutter velocity dipped under the 90-MPH threshold as well.

An offseason’s worth of rest didn’t do Halladay’s velocity any good in spring training. David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News noted in early March that Halladay was sitting in the 86-88 range in an outing against the Washington Nationals.

It was always a possibility that Halladay’s velocity would return to him once the season began, but that didn’t happen.

What’s more, you have to wonder if Halladay’s velocity loss has gone to his head. As Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer can vouch, Halladay barely used his hard stuff against the Braves on Wednesday:

This is another thing which hearkens back to what we saw from Halladay in 2012. With his velocity slipping, he resorted more to his curveball and his split-change. It was more of the same against the Braves.

Halladay’s off-speed stuff did look pretty good. It had more bite than his hard stuff, and he wouldn’t have been able to compile those nine strikeouts without it. And for what it’s worth, ESPN’s Jayson Stark noted on Twitter that Halladay’s the first pitcher to strike out nine batters in less than 3.2 innings in 98 years, so he did make a bit of history.

That’s an encouraging sign, as it serves as proof that Halladay’s arsenal isn’t completely depleted. 

But it’s only encouraging to a degree.

Pitchers need hard stuff to keep the strikes coming. Halladay moved away from his hard stuff on Wednesday and, sure enough, he didn’t throw that many strikes. Only 55 of his 95 pitches went for strikes, about 58 percent.

This from a guy who has a strike percentage of 68 over the last four seasons. Even while he was struggling through so much of 2012, Halladay still managed to throw 67 percent of his pitches for strikes. That’s up where the best strike-throwers in the business generally reside.

The writing on the wall says that Halladay isn’t going to be around the plate all that much without his hard stuff. That means he’s going to have to reestablish his confidence in it, and he may not be able to do that until his velocity returns to him.

Halladay certainly can’t just keep doing what he did against the Braves start after start. He’s not going to be able to just strike everyone out. He can try, mind you, but that sort of approach isn’t good for the pitch count, and hitters are going to get wise sooner or later (smart money’s on sooner).

The situation is bleak, but the obligatory question must be asked: Is there hope for Halladay?

As dire as things look right now, there’s always hope. Halladay’s stuff doesn’t look so good, but we’re talking about a guy who has one of the best minds for pitching of anybody in recent memory. If Greg Maddux could get by for so many years with mediocre velocity, then Halladay may be able to as well.

In addition, there is the reality that Halladay didn’t exactly enjoy a normal spring. He battled a stomach virus that kept him from getting some work in, and it could be that he’s still building himself up after having to deal with that.

But I wouldn’t go out and bet the farm on Halladay bouncing back and thrusting himself into the National League Cy Young Award race this season. Based on what we saw last year, in spring training and in his 2013 debut, we’re clearly looking at a pitcher who is not the guy he used to be. 

And that, obviously, is a disconcerting thought for the Phillies. Halladay’s dominance had a lot to do with their success in 2010 and 2011, and we saw last year that the team can only be so good without a dominant Halladay.

That was particularly true toward the end of the year, when the Phillies were close to full strength and making a push for the postseason. Halladay didn’t do his part, with a 5.88 ERA in his last nine starts.

The Phillies needed the old ace version of Halladay then, and they’re certainly going to need him this year, given the competition they’re facing in the NL East. The Nationals are legit, and the Braves look as good as advertised so far.

If Halladay doesn’t get himself squared away, the Phillies will be staring also-ran status in the face for a second year in a row.

Worse, their already-closing championship window is finally going to shut.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Will Chase Utley and Company Tease Us with Mediocrity?

The Philadelphia Phillies have reached a fork in the road and the organization is stringing its fanbase along while contemplating which direction to go.

In 2013, it’s highly improbable to forecast a National League East Division title for the Phillies. However, competing for an NL wild-card berth is not out of the question either. These things we know.

What we don’t know is how the Phillies will respond to their current conundrum.

Two years removed from a lineup and pitching staff that dominated opponents at will, the Phillies are now clustered with aging question marks, expiring contracts and a farm system that is null and void.

For instance, second baseman Chase Utley and third baseman Michael Young will be free agents following the season. Former ace Roy Halladay will join the latter two as long as he doesn’t accrue 225 innings pitched (or a sum of 415 innings pitched between 2012-2013). Halladay’s one-year option could also be renewed if he does not finish the 2013 season on the disabled list.

Additionally, outfielder Delmon Young and utilityman Laynce Nix will also hit the open market for 2014.

Regarding Utley, Young and Halladay, the sum of their 2013 base salaries is $41 million. For comparison’s sake, the aforementioned trio will be paid nearly twice as much as the entire Houston Astros 2013 roster ($24.34 million). However, a possibility looms that Utley and Halladay will return for 2014. Young, on the other hand, will be one-and-done in Philadelphia.

The approach the Phillies should consider regarding the present and the future depends upon one’s baseball ideology. 

Those who favor a sustainable franchise that builds from within via scouting and development will be more than happy to see the Phillies part ways with Utley and Halladay. These same folks are clamoring in anticipation of first baseman Ryan Howard’s $125 million contract expiration following the 2017 season.

Those who toe this line follow the principle of development.

On the other hand, there are those who bustle about free agency and the trading block looking for the next big piece to add. For example, this type of crowd might suggest the Boston Red Sox did not err in signing outfielder Carl Crawford to a seven-year contract worth $142 million. Instead of a mistake, these folks feel that Crawford’s deal was well worth the investment at the time.

Those who argue in favor of this ideology believe in market superiority. After all, the macroeconomics of baseball tell us that teams in major markets are more likely to spend larger sums of money than their smaller-market counterparts. Hence, market superiority.

Only the ebb and flow of the Major League Baseball season can determine which direction the Phillies take in the short term. By trading Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence and Joe Blanton, 2012 was the first time the Phillies took the developmental approach in more than five seasons. 

Recent history in Philadelphia suggests that the long-term approach is to invest heavily in high-priced talent, as long as the roster makeup is considered competitive.

This is where the conundrum rears its ugly head.

At the core of the Phillies roster is nothing but 30-something-year-old’s (minus Cole Hamels). Outfielders Ben Revere and Domonic Brown are 24 and 25 years old, respectively. Although, neither Revere nor Brown has established himself in the same fashion as Jimmy Rollins, Utley or Howard.

If anything, Revere and Brown are low on the food chain of established MLB outfielders.

In the cards for the Phillies exists the likelihood of a winning season in 2013. Yet, the winning season is also unlikely to translate into a postseason appearance. Even if it did, only someone with an unrealistic outlook would suggest the Phillies have an opportunity to win the World Series. There are simply too many unanswered questions.

One question is of primary importance, though.

Cliff Lee‘s $120 million contract does not expire until 2017. If the Phillies are 10 games or more behind second place in the NL East by the trade deadline, do they deal Lee? What if they have to digest a major share of Lee’s remaining contract?

Only the performance of the Phillies over the course of the next four months can answer that question.

Another question that must be asked revolves around Utley.

At 34 years old, the second baseman is playing at full health in the month of April for the first time since 2010. With an expiring contract, is Utley expendable at the non-waiver trade deadline if the Phillies are out of contention? On the other hand, if the Phillies can retain Utley for a contract in the $6-8 million-per-year range, should they bring him back in 2014?

With an exhausted farm system and a plethora of over-the-hill MLB talent, the conundrum the Phillies face in the near term has the potential to be devastating. The sky is not falling, but even a fan wearing rose-colored lenses can see the future isn’t so bright either. 

A painstaking approach to managing the club while weighing the net difference from a cost-benefit analysis will draw criticism from every angle. Unfortunately, doubts persist that general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is capable of steering the Phillies organization back into World Series contention. 

What can be expected in the near term?

A Phillies lineup that will tease the fanbase with just enough wins to remain relevant. Simultaneously, the dark cloud of the future will continue to linger over this franchise. With that said, mediocrity will endure and bitterness will tower as long as the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves continue to win more games than the team from Citizens Bank Park.

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Impressions from Philadelphia Phillies’ Opening Night

The Philadelphia Phillies fell to the Atlanta Braves 7-5 in their first game of the 2013 season, but it wasn’t all bad news.

Cole Hamels and Chad Durbin struggled on the mound, Chase Utley brought life to the offense and newcomers made their debuts. It is a much different Phillies team than a few years ago, when it had the best rotation in all of baseball and was considered a title contender. Now, the Phillies try to put a .500 season behind them as they set out to retake the NL East throne from the Washington Nationals.

So, what did we learn about the Phillies on Opening Night?

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Hitter-by-Hitter Breakdown of the Philadelphia Phillies’ Lineup

Phillies fans have to be rejoicing at the sight of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the same lineup to begin the season.

While they don’t pack as much punch as they used to, they will lead a lineup that is not exactly intimidating, but has the potential to be efficient and successful.

With the back end of their pitching rotation shaky at best, it is up to the Phillies’ lineup to keep them in games and turn uncertainty into consistent run production up and down the lineup.

However, for this current lineup, the ceiling is as high as the floor is low. Where they end up in that middle ground comes down to one thing: execution.

I’ll breakdown the Phillies’ lineup that was used in their 7-5 Opening Day loss to the Atlanta Braves and should remain close to the same for the beginning part of the season barring injury (Knock on wood, Phillies fans).   

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One Prediction for Every Philadelphia Phillies Player on the Opening Day Roster

Predictions are fun, but that is all they are. If you have the gift of seeing the future, use it for good after you are satisfied that you have made enough money in the stock market.

So these are predictions on Phillies players for 2013. Some will be lighthearted, some will be serious, but all of them should be taken as exercises in fun and nothing more.

As readers here often point out, my knowledge of Phillies baseball is pretty limited, anyway.

Mike Adams: 30 holds. A huge improvement over Philly’s eighth innings in 2012.

Phillippe Aumont: Continued problems with strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Antonio Bastardo: To be trusted with and to lose the eighth-inning situational lefty job again.

Domonic Brown: A 20-20-20 season: 20 home runs, 20 stolen bases, 20 errors.

Chad Durbin: Five different occasions this season where Chris Wheeler, Larry Andersen or Tom McCarthy refers to him as “Chad Qualls.”

Kevin Frandsen: A borderline shocking number of late-inning appearances in place of Michael Young for defensive purposes.

Freddy Galvis: A borderline shocking number of late-inning appearances in place of Chase Utley for defensive purposes.

Roy Halladay: Only 140 innings and an earned run average over five. But I hope I’m wrong.

Cole Hamels: A 20-win season that leads the Phillies to a one-game playoff to get into the one-game National League Wild Card playoff.

Jeremy Horst: By September, Horst and not Bastardo will be sharing eighth-inning duties with Adams.

Ryan Howard: A rich man’s Adam Dunn: 40 home runs, 110 runs batted in, .225 average.

Ender Inciarte: A ticket to Lehigh Valley as soon as Delmon Young is healthy enough to play.

Kyle Kendrick: A career high in wins (he only needs 12 to get there.)

Erik Kratz: By late April, the cries for Carlos Ruiz will be deafening.

John Lannan: A surprisingly effective season with double-digit wins and single-digit losses.

Cliff Lee: A 23-win season in which Hamels and Lee never lose back-to-back starts.

John Mayberry, Jr.: Hitting .197, traded at midseason for a player to be named later.

Laynce Nix: Hitting .198, traded at midseason for a player to be named later.

Jonathan Papelbon: 40-plus saves and an earned run average under three.

Humberto Quintero: A ticket to Lehigh Valley as soon as Carlos Ruiz’s suspension is over.

Ben Revere: The Phillies’ offensive most valuable player with 175 hits, 110 runs and 50 steals.

Jimmy Rollins: Quiet, stable leadership with double digits in doubles, home runs and steals.

Chase Utley: A somehow-now-he’s-healthy Utley (in a contract year) hits 20 home runs and drives in 75 with 15 steals.

Raul Valdes: Twenty appearances in which he faces only one left-handed batter; 18 of those batters will be retired.

Michael Young: By September, Young will be hitting better than .300, but he will have twice as many errors as home runs.

Somehow, this is all going to add up to 87 wins.

You would take that, right?

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MLB Picks: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard has hit seven career home runs against Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Tim Hudson, which is important to consider when making your MLB picks Monday night, as the two teams face off at Turner Field at 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

Sports bettors will find that the Phillies are -102 road underdogs in the pro baseball odds (courtesy of SBR odds), while the total sits at 7.0 in the betting market.

Let’s take a closer look at this National League East matchup from a betting perspective while offering up a prediction on the total along the way.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Post-Spring Training Report Card for Top 8 Prospects

While spring training is a way for teams and roster players to prepare for the upcoming season, it also gives prospects a chance to get experience at the big league camp and, in some instances, audition for a job with the major league club.

For the Philadelphia Phillies, they invited a handful of their top prospects to camp, some of which were there with a shot to earn jobs, while others were just there so that the team could take a look at its best and upcoming talent.

Of those invited, eight in particular stood out and emerged as top prospects. They include pitching stars Adam Morgan, Jonathan Pettibone and Ethan Martin, future infield types in Cesar Hernandez and Cody Asche and the organization’s two best catching hopefuls in Tommy Joseph and Sebastian Valle.

Also in camp was Darin Ruf, who solidified himself as a top prospect with a record-breaking season at Double-A Reading. He was invited to camp with a legitimate shot to become the Phillies’ starting left fielder but fell short, as he finds himself still learning the position he spent just weeks having the chance to prepare for.

While Ruf is still a work in progress, his is a special case. Meanwhile, the other seven guys in camp came forward—some in leaps and bounds—to showcase their ability to the organization’s top executives.

So considering spring performance and minor league track records, here are the post-spring training report cards for each of the Phillies’ top eight prospects.

 

The grades given to each player are based on five factors. Both hitters and pitchers are judged on the basis of their ETA to the major leagues, skill in most need of work and developmental progress in terms of minor league progression and their spring training sample.

For hitters, they are also graded on their power rate and contact/strikeout rate. For pitchers, they are graded on swing-and-miss stuff and the ability to get hitters out.

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