5 Things We Learned About the Phillies Through the 1st Quarter of the Season

The Philadelphia Phillies have had an interesting season thus far in 2013. The season has been riddled with ups and downs, from offensive resurgence of some players to injuries and depth issues concerning others.

As the season has now officially reached the one-quarter mark, it may be safe to say that certain trends are here to stay for the Phillies. Certain performances by certain players have been stellar, while others have been terrible.

I’m being intentionally ambiguous here. The point is, even after a quarter of the 2013 MLB season, there is enough information to gauge the Phillies so far. Here are five things that we’ve learned about the Phillies after the first quarter of the season.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Potential Trade Partners for Chase Utley

The Philadelphia Phillies have been somewhat of a pleasant surprise thus far. Despite sitting two games below .500, the Fightin‘ Phils are only three-and-a-half games out of first place in the National League East.

To some, suggesting the Phillies should be sellers at this point in the season may seem asinine. However, their current standing is more illusory than anything as they have struggled mightily against teams with winning records. Don’t forget they have yet to face the Washington Nationals.

One of their largest chips is second baseman Chase Utley. In the final year of his deal, Utley is hitting .289 with a team-high 24 RBI. His seven home runs are tied with Domonic Brown for most on the club.

For many, the prospect of seeing Utley in another uniform is surreal. He was at the core of the 2008 World Series championship team. A few years prior, he was the reason why Placido Polanco was dealt to the Detroit Tigers. Needless to say, if anyone has been the face of this franchise, it’s been Utley.

It wasn’t too long ago when many women were walking around Citizens Bank Park wearing pink shirts stating they are Utley’s “girlfriend.” Everyone remembers when the late, great Harry Kalas declared, “Chase Utley, you are the man!”

Utley is to the Phillies what cheesesteaks are to Philadelphia. 

On the other hand, nothing lasts forever. 

2013 is the first season since 2010 where the 34-year-old appears to be at full health. Prior to this season, Utley’s numbers were on a serious decline. Such facts makes one wonder as to whether this is a contract-year surge. Regardless, the increased production is the primary motivator to move Utley while the organization can attain as much in return as possible.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at Utley’s potential suitors. 

 

Baltimore Orioles

Sure, the Orioles may be more inclined to pursue rotational depth that is more on par with that of the other top-flight teams in the American League. However, the production they have received from second base has been abysmal. 

Ryan Flaherty is hitting a putrid .140 in 98 plate appearances. His two HR and six RBI don’t make up for his 23.5 percent strikeout rate. While Flaherty usually faces right-handed pitching, his current Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 0.0 highlights the fact that he is doing nothing for the O’s. Absolutely nothing.

The other option Baltimore has at second base is Alexi Casilla. The soon-to-be 29-year-old has never proven to be much of a hitter. His career year came in 2008 with the Minnesota Twins, but his production then was rather unflattering. 

What would the Phillies receive in return? Stud prospects Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman are out of the question. With a top-heavy farm system, the optimal return would include righty Branden Kline and outfielder Glynn Davis. 

 

Kansas City Royals

If this organization is serious about making a run into late October, it would behoove them to consider Utley. Put simply, their second base situation is ugly. 

They are platooning Elliot Johnson and Chris Getz. Johnson is striking out one in nearly every three at bats, while Getz is hitting an appalling .193. Between the two, they have two HR, 10 RBI and 21 runs scored in 46 games.

There isn’t much to look forward to within the farm system either. The Royals are currently 19-17 and one-and-a-half games behind the first place Detroit Tigers. The overall lineup has underachieved. Utley would give the squad more prowess at the plate.

The Royals made headlines by dealing super prospect Wil Myers to Tampa Bay prior to the start of the season. Stud prospects Kyle Zimmer and Bubba Starling can’t be seriously considered in an exchange for Utley. However, the Phillies would be pleased if they received lefty John Lamb or shortstop Orlando Calixte in return.

 

Oakland Athletics

Even though they are one game below .500, the A’s are in prime position to compete for the AL West or a wild-card berth. Unfortunately, Eric Sogard is not the answer at second base.

Next week Sogard will turn 27. Since 2010, he has had several brief stints in the majors. While he makes decent contact, his .233 batting average is far from stellar. He has very little power to speak of as well.

For the second consecutive year, Scott Sizemore has torn the ACL in his left knee. Oakland can’t look inward since they have very little hope in terms of finding a replacement for Sogard in the minors. Therefore, Utley would be a solid fit for a franchise looking to make its first consecutive trip to the playoffs since 2000-03.

In a deal for Utley, the Phillies could expect to receive the likes of righty Nolan Sanburn, lefty Pedro Figueroa or outfielder Michael Taylor. Neither of these three prospects has tremendous upside but they would foot the bill in exchange for Utley.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Handing Out First-Quarter Grades to the Players, Manager

After a tough first month and a half of the baseball season, filled with both ups and downs, it is time to hand out the first-quarter grades for the Philadelphia Phillies pitchers, position players and the manager.

Just like students get report cards, so too is each member of the Phillies roster. The report cards will look at what each player has done well, which areas could use improvement and some teacher comments describing why each player received the grade he did.

For position players, grades were assigned based on their offensive and defensive performance and then an overall grade was decided considering those two numbers as well as remaining factors explained in the comments section. Each of the 13 position players on the roster were given individual grades.

As for the pitchers, the bullpen was measured separately as was the starting staff. Each member of the starting staff was given a grade and it was factored in to give an overall grade for the rotation which included Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick and Jonathan Pettibone.

The team was also graded as a whole on their offense which factored in league rankings and overall first-quarter numbers. Charlie Manuel was given a grade based on perceived managerial performance, decision making and the overall standing of the team.

Of course, like every report card you’ve ever gotten, it is just a measurement of where you currently stand, not where you are going. The grades represent the now, but for certain players, the expectation is improvement.

So take a look at the slides to see the grades for your favorite players. And feel free to comment on your own ideas of what the grades should be.

All stats courtesy of espn.go.com

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An Early Look at 10 Realistic Moves Phillies Could Make at the Deadline

Call it a reverse black cat. Call it anything you want. But this Phillies team, which is four games out of first place, is not only not making the playoffs.

They are not going to finish .500.

So many things had to go right for the Phillies to contend this year. For the most part, it is just not happening.

True, Chase Utley has had a bit of a resurgence, still leading the team in both home runs and runs batted in. But he never had a ton of range at second base. Now, his knees just don’t let him go where he wants to go. With five errors and a .972 fielding percentage, he had better hit.

All the other “must haves” for this team are little more than wishes unfulfilled.

Roy Halladay needed to be an elite pitcher again. You can forget about that.

Carlos Ruiz needed to come back from suspension and be a .300 hitter again. So far, he is hitting .200.

Ben Revere needed to be a table-setter and a run-scoring machine. All he has done is proven the age-old adage that you cannot steal first base.

Michael Young needed to be a run-producing right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup. Somehow, despite hitting .310 thus far, Young has nine runs batted in. Slugging .395 as a third baseman is pretty sorry.

It would be great to have this piece be Exhibit “A” when the Phillies are leading the National League East by five games in late September.

Failing that, though, these are the moves the Phillies will need to make at or before the trade deadline.

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Stock Up, Stock Down for Philadelphia Phillies’ Top 10 Prospects for Week 6

The Philadelphia Phillies called up two prospects from Triple-A this past week who turned in solid season debuts, although neither is considered a top 10 prospect.

Tyler Cloyd received a promotion over Adam Morgan to pitch in Roy Halladay’s spot in the rotation, and took a no-decision after allowing two earned runs and two hits in 6.1 innings.

Following the game Cloyd was sent back to Triple-A, while Justin De Fratus was promoted.  De Fratus struck out the lone batter he faced in Sunday’s game, and wound up with the win after the Phillies scored two runs in the 10th inning.

But what about the players currently ranked as the Phillies’ top 10 prospects according to Baseball America?

Has Darin Ruf started to heat up?  How did Jesse Biddle bounce back from his rough outing last week?  Did Ethan Martin improve his command in his two starts this past week?

Let’s take a look at which players’ stocks are up and which are down following Week 6.

 

*All statistics courtesy of MiLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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Predicting All-Star Break Win Totals for Each of Philadelphia Phillies’ Starters

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ starting pitching rotation has been similar to that of a revolving door with squeaky hinges.

Injuries and inconsistency have riddled the Phillies’ staff while Kyle Kendrick has performed as Philadelphia’s ace in the hole.

The 2013 Major League Baseball All-Star Game is to be played on July 16 at Citi Field, home of the New York Mets. That’s 64 days away for those keeping track at home.

That is an ample amount of time for Phillies starting pitchers to rack up some wins and keep the team in contention.

According to Matt Gelb at Philly.com, the Phillies don’t need a fifth starter until May 21. That fifth starter could be anyone so it seemed appropriate to exclude that spot in this piece rather than speculate.

Following are predictions of the win totals for all four current and healthy Phillies starting pitchers by the Midsummer Classic.

Each pitcher should get about 12 more starts before the All-Star break, give or take a couple starts.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Is Carlos Zambrano a Viable Option?

Carlos Zambrano is certainly an enigma, but some people have been wondering if the Philadelphia Phillies might be interested in bringing him on board after Roy Halladay and John Lannan landed on the DL. There was even a rumor that the Phillies had already signed him to a contract (debunked by Hardball Talk).

The Phillies apparently have not even gone to scout him yet.

If you ask Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, he would tell you that they might naturally take a look at Zambrano, but they would only do so in the spirit of looking at all of their options.

However, when or if they take a look, could there be any value here?

On the positive side, he is only 31 years old. He has a career 3.66 ERA and is coming off a respectable season with the Miami Marlins. In 2012, while his record was only 7-10, his ERA was 4.49 and his WHIP was 1.496.

Those are certainly not elite numbers like he has flashed at certain times in his 12-year career, but on one level, it seems as if it might be enough to fill a gap for the Phillies.

At 31 years old, there is no reason to believe that he might not get his act back together if given the right opportunity.

On the negative side though, Zambrano does come with a variety of off-the-field issues. I don’t want to dwell on them here, but that is something that the Phillies would need to take into consideration if they were thinking about the right-hander.

Another potential area of concern is the fact that he has been slightly susceptible to fly balls throughout much of his career. Although he actually allowed more ground balls than fly balls last season (209 as opposed to 201), his career numbers have not quite been so positive.

In a bandbox like Citizens Bank Park, that is certainly an issue to be aware of. It might not be the best home park for him.

Overall, while there is absolutely nothing certain about any of this happening, it is an interesting thought to have. Carlos Zambrano is a proven winner at the major league level. Not only that, but bringing him on board would entail a minimal financial investment.

Perhaps in this case, if the Phillies do look at him, and if they do like what they see, it might not be such a bad idea after all.

 

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A Eulogy for the 2013 Philadelphia Phillies and a Once Would-Be Dynasty

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for coming.

This is indeed a sad day, as we acknowledge the end of something. In many ways, though, this also should be a happy occasion,  time to remember and celebrate what was.

If you’ll please be seated, we’ll begin the ceremony of saying goodbye to the Philadelphia Phillies and the dynasty that could have been.

 

The Beginning of the End

The Phillies have failed to make it above .500 this season—they’re 16-21 through Friday—but the downfall of this once-proud franchise started well before 2013.

If we were to paint a picture of the very moment this club went from potential dynasty to impending travesty, it would look a little something like this:

That’s Ryan Howard, the highly paid slugging first baseman, slumped on the ground, unable to even run to first base after meekly grounding out and wrecking his Achilles on the final out of the 2011 NLDS against the Cardinals.

Heading into that postseason, the Phillies were considered the favorites after finishing the regular season with the best record in baseball—by a wide margin—at 102-60, carried primarily by their star-studded, built-for-October rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt.

But in that decisive Game 5, the Cardinals beat the Phillies 1-0, as ace Chris Carpenter was just a little bit better than Halladay, and of course, the Cards would go on to win the World Series—a destiny that many expected of the Phillies.

 

The End Itself

Coming off that disappointment, the Phillies’ window of opportunity already was closing fast, but unfortunately the club was never really able to get going in 2012.

Sure, the Phillies briefly looked back to their old selves (pun intended) when Howard, Halladay and second baseman Chase Ultey finally were all healthy at the same time. In fact, after spending almost the entire season well under .500, Philly actually got back above that mark in mid-September, thanks to a furious run.

But that was just false hope. The franchise that had earned five straight NL East titles, made two straight World Series appearances and won it all in 2008 would miss the postseason for the first time since 2006.

Reality, by this time, was starting to set in, if it hadn’t already.

 

Saying Goodbye

Now? Well, now things are bad and likely to get worse.

You’ve heard about Halladay and how the once-indomitable ace will undergo surgery that could end his season—and perhaps his career as a Phillie, seeing that the right-hander is in line to be a free agent.

Speaking of free agents, Utley is in the final year of his contract, too. There have been rumors that Utley, the longtime heart and soul of this club who performs like an All-Star but approaches every game as if he were fighting tooth and nail to remain on the 25th man roster, could be traded if the club decides to go the seller route.

And while that, too, will be a sad day, if and when it comes to pass, trading Utley might be the right move for general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.

Fact is, when you look at the ages, performances and recent injury history of the Phillies’ stars—Halladay, Utley, Howard, Lee and shortstop Jimmy Rollins—almost all of them are going too far in the wrong direction in at least one of those aspects.

 

The Long Climb Back

Perhaps the biggest factor in all of this is the competition.

While the Phillies front office has been hoping to squeeze every last drop out of a core that had the best record in the National League from 2007 through 2011—the Phils went 473-337 (.584) over that five-year stretch—the dynamic of the division they once dominated has changed dramatically.

The Nationals had baseball’s best record a year ago, and the Braves have one of the youngest and most dangerous lineups around. The Phillies aren’t nearly as good and certainly not as young as either of those clubs.

And while things don’t look as promising for the Mets and Marlins right now, both teams have already begun their rebuilding process, so they have a head start on Philadelphia in that respect.

In other words, the Phillies might have a few long seasons ahead of them.

 

The Good Times

But rather than dwell on the future, let’s remember the Phillies’ proud past. After all, there are still plenty of memories from the great years.

Like when Howard won the 2005 NL Rookie of the Year, then MVP a year later, triggering a string of individual awards and team-wide successes.

Or like when Rollins’ 2007 performance earned more MVP hardware.

Or like Halladay’s perfect game, followed by his postseason no-hitter, followed by his Cy Young win—all in 2010, his first year in town.

And of course, who can forget what left-hander Cole Hamels did in the 2008 playoffs, culminating in a strong performance in the World Series-clinching Game 5, which ended a curse and brought the first major sports championship to the city of Philadelphia since 1983.

That seems like as good a note to end our service on as any. So, folks, we’ll ask that you bow your heads in respect and remember what the Philadelphia Phillies achieved.

Could they have done more? Was there supposed to be another title along the way? Should this team—with Utley, Howard, Rollins and Hamels, just an insane run of homegrown talent all clumped together in the mid-aughts—have become a dynasty?

Rather than harp on what could have been, it’s better to appreciate what actually was.

And hold onto those memories. It might be while before the team can make some more.

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Roy Halladay Shoulder: Best-Case, Worst-Case Scenarios for Phillies Pitcher

Roy Halladay struggled throughout the 2013 season. His arm slot has changed, likely because he was trying to find a comfortable way to get the ball to the plate. That change is common and signals damage inside the shoulder, which is exactly what was found upon imaging.

Halladay will now have arthroscopic surgery to correct a frayed labrum and rotator cuff, as well as clean up bone spurs or debris inside the shoulder.

While damage to the labrum and cuff can be devastating, Halladay and his doctor, Neal ElAttrache of the Kerlan-Jobe Clinic, feel confident that the damage is minor. The biceps, labrum and rotator cuff often work in concert, leading Dr. Stephen O’Brien to call the area the “biceps-labrum complex.”

Minor fraying is an indication that the area has been stressed over time, but has not given out completely. The location of the fraying would be instructive, but as of now, there’s been no comment on this. The likely areas are in the back of the shoulder, where pain from both types of injuries tends to be felt. 

There is a bit of a chicken-and-egg issue here since the damage is thought to be minor. Did Halladay change his arm slot because of the BLC damage, or did the BLC get damaged because new muscle areas and patterns were created by the arm slot? With fraying, there is less indication of a traumatic event and more one of wear and tear. 

Halladay has been well-used, but seldom has shown any sign of overwork. Comparing Halladay’s workload to other pitchers of this era makes it look that way, but comparing him to players of even the last generation doesn’t appear to indicate any real abuse.

Halladay’s workload in comparison to Roger Clemens is light. Neither was a max-effort pitcher and had great success over the course of a decade. Notably, Clemens came back from shoulder surgery on almost precisely this issue, though his came at the dawn of his career rather than the twilight. 

Halladay’s biomechanics were very stable coming into this year. His delivery was rebuilt in 2000 by Mel Queen, a bold move by the Blue Jays that paid off handsomely.

Halladay’s delivery is unusual, largely the result of Queen dropping his arm slot to a sidearm and increasing the lateral motion created naturally by the mechanics rather than additional spin.

Yes, Halladay is a sidearmer; look at the picture to the right and note that without the tilt of his shoulders, the acromial line—an imaginary line from elbow to elbow, through the shoulders—is almost perfectly flat, while the pitching forearm also stays relatively flat at the point of release. This is not uncommon, though few are as pronounced as Halladay.

During the 2013 season, Halladay often dropped his pitching elbow further. The technique takes pressure off the shoulder.

Try this at home: Put your arm out to a pitcher’s “90-90“, where the pitching arm is extended into the shape of an L. The upper arm is parallel to the floor and extended at a 90-degree angle. The forearm is bent at 90 degrees, putting the forearm parallel to the body.

If you pull the arm back slightly, you will feel some tension at the back of your shoulder. Drop the elbow towards the floor slightly and you will feel that pressure release. However, the shoulder joint itself is now in a much less advantageous position and throwing from this position can cause some issues. 

As Halladay heads to surgery next week, what are the best-case and worst-case scenarios for what happens? Let’s take a look:

 

Best-Case

The best-case is also the expected case. Dr. ElAttrache expects to go into the shoulder arthroscopically and be able to clean up the damage without performing any significant repairs. With the scope, the surgeon can shave down the fraying, remove the bone spurs and other assorted debris and leave Halladay with smooth, healing surfaces. 

Halladay will almost immediately begin to rehab and could be throwing as soon as six to eight weeks afterward. His rehab should move quickly as the shoulder strengthens and is freed up by the repairs. The strength and stamina will have to be built up through a throwing program. Halladay will be able to move quickly if things inside the shoulder aren’t causing pressure or discomfort.

Once Halladay begins to throw, watch for his elbow location in his delivery. If the surgery works, it should be assumed that the elbow will come back up to the normal slot and that the Phillies will see increased control and velocity from Halladay. 

In the best case, Halladay will have no physical setbacks in the rehab process, will show quick comfort in his throwing program and will have to rebuild stamina in order to return, a relatively simple process that Halladay has done many times before. 

 

Worst-Case

The worst-case scenario is that once Dr. ElAttrache gets inside the shoulder, he finds more significant damage. While MRI and other advanced imaging techniques give a good view inside the joint, it is not perfect. There is a reasonable chance that there is more advanced tearing of one or both damaged structures that would necessitate a more significant repair.

Rather than just cleaning things up, the surgeon may have to repair the structures using some combination of fixation (anchors) and repair (stitches), as well as debridement. If there is significant impingement or osseous changes, a simple removal of bone spurs may need to be changed into a resection, where a portion of the bone is shaved or cut off. 

Even if things go well, Halladay may not be able to return this season. While the three-month return will be difficult, seeing Halladay back on a mound this season is quite possible. It would also be normal to see this extend well past the three-month period. Dr. Keith Meister tells his patients that even with a minor repair, the shoulder will need a year or more to return to normal.

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Grading Each Philadelphia Phillies Regular Up to This Point

The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off a series in San Francisco which saw the resilient Philadelphia squad win two of three games and nearly steal the third game to complete the sweep.

This team is in desperate need of a hot stretch, and maybe this is the beginning.

Or maybe, this team is toying with fans; hence a series split with Miami at home followed by a series win in San Francisco against the defending world champs.

This is inconsistency at its finest.

That inconsistency is modeled perfectly by some of the regular day players while others continue to produce at a steady rate.

Let’s take a look at each Phillies’ regular and quantitatively assess his play with a letter grade.

 

*All statistics from MLB.com.

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