Breaking Down Every Phillies’ Odds of Being Moved at the Deadline

40 days. That’s how long the Philadelphia Phillies have before they have to decide whether to go for it all one last time or build anew.

The only question remaining: which route will they choose?

Given their 35-38 record and relative inability to get any sort of hot streak going (at least without a cold streak immediately afterward), chances are that the Phillies are primed to be sellers at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. While there’s still hope that the Phils can turn things around—fortunately, they’re not in the cellar of the division—their position at the All-Star Break in a few weeks will be very telling.

In the meantime, rumors and speculation have continued to pile up all around baseball, and the Phillies are not excluded from that distinction. While seasoned veterans and players with All-Star pedigree are most likely to be discussed publicly, any player has a chance of being moved, even if those chances are slim to none.

With a month and a half to go before it either all begins or all ends, here’s a mid-June prediction of each Phillies’ odds of being moved by July 31.

*This slideshow will include all Phillies on the active roster and disabled list. Players on the 40-man roster who are not at the major-league level as of June 21, 2013 will not be included.

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Ian Desmond, Jayson Werth Propel the Nationals Past the Phillies

The Washington Nationals valiantly delivered late, defeating the Philadelphia Phillies 6-2 Wednesday evening at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA.

Gio Gonzalez and Jayson Werth continually weathered the storm throughout the night for the Nationals.

However, it was Ian Desmond’s huge grand slam off Michael Stutes in the 11th inning that sealed the win for the Nationals.

Early on, it seemed as if the Phillies were destined to sweep the Nationals after a two-run shot by Michael Young in the bottom of the first. Nonetheless, the early mistake proved to be a minuscule one for Gonzalez as he dissected the Phillies with a series of devastating fastballs and sliders that the Phillies had no answer for.

In seven innings, Gonzalez allowed only two runs and two hits, all the while matching a career-best 11 strikeouts on the night.

Although the night ended in no-decisions for both Gonzalez and Kyle Kendrick, both pitchers had outstanding outings on the mound Wednesday evening.

Throughout the first seven innings, the Phillies were in control.

However, it was evident that Charlie Manuel’s decision to pull Kendrick in the seventh inning weakened the Phillies’ onslaught as the evening progressed.

Honestly, it seemed as if Kendrick could go all night long if need be. Having allowed only one run and two hits through 7.2 innings, his adrenaline and confidence had to have had him feeling like Superman on the mound.

Yes, Kendrick was that good.

One cannot help but wonder how the game would have turned out had Kendrick still been on the mound for the Phillies.

Having dropped three straight prior to Wednesday’s contest in Philadelphia, a win for the Nationals has to feel oh so good as they prepare for their upcoming series against the Colorado Rockies in DC.

For the Phillies, however, there is simply no time to worry about the one that got away. 

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Nationals Live Blog: Instant Reaction and Analysis

The Washington Nationals came from behind to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies 6-2 on Wednesday night at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. 

Washington used an 11th-inning grand slam by Ian Desmond to take the final game of the series and move ahead of Philadelphia into sole position of second place in the National League East. 

After Michael Young put the Phillies ahead in the first inning with a two-run home run, Kyle Kendrick pitched 7 and two-thirds impressive innings.

However, Jonathan Papelbon blew his second save in three nights when he gave up a two-out base hit to former Phillie Jayson Werth, which tied the game at two.

Gio Gonzalez also had an impressive pitching performance, giving the Nationals seven strong innings after early struggles.

Drew Storen earned the win for Washington, while Michael Stutes was credited with the loss for Philadelphia.

Washington returns to action tomorrow night against the Colorado Rockies, while the Phillies have a day off before hosting the New York Mets on Friday night. 

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Assembling Jonathan Papelbon Trade Packages from the Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals

Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe reported in a recent column that the Philadelphia Phillies believed that the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals all had interest in their closer, Jonathan Papelbon. Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has also recently stated his lack of interest in trading any of his most valuable assets and an unwillingness to break up the core of his team and start over.

In the case of Papelbon, he mentioned that his team doesn’t have a replacement ready to step in for one of the best closer’s in the game. And there is no one “on the market”, according to Amaro —I’m assuming he’s referring to external options in the upcoming offseason.

Amaro’s job, however, is to make sure that his team is competitive year in and year out. In order to do so, he must weigh his options and not mortgage the future to try and win now when his roster is not good enough to do so.

While trading Papelbon doesn’t fit Amaro’s philosophy not to “do five-year plans” —which actually makes sense now if he thinks he’ll be out of a job if the 2013 or 2014 team isn’t competitive— the organization may need to decide as a whole on the club’s direction. If that direction is to get younger and improve the farm system, trading their 32 year-old closer might be a start.  

Here’s what it might take for the three aforementioned teams to acquire Papelbon.  

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A Very Early Look at Potential Philadelphia Phillies 2014 Free Agent Targets

Phillies fans do not know whether this year’s team has one final playoff push in it, but one thing is absolutely certain: This core group of players will largely be gone after 2013.

Of course, Ryan Howard and his enormous contract are not going anywhere. Neither probably is Cole Hamels, as long as he is getting paid over $20 million a year to lose five games for every one he wins.

After those two, though, there is uncertainty for the Phillies around the diamond.

Jimmy Rollins has one year left on his present contract, but he could be a useful piece for a contender if the Phillies fall out of the race this summer.

Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon have longer deals in place, but then they are still premium players at their respective positions and they could be moved.

The contracts of Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, Carlos Ruiz and Michael Young are all up after 2013. It is tough to foresee any of them, even franchise poster boy Utley, coming back next season.

This sort of upheaval can be terrifying for fans, but the undeniable benefit to the likely departures of so many expensive, over-the-hill players is the free agent money that their absence from the payroll will free up.

So, without meaning to bury the 2013 Phillies before the coroner does the autopsy, here is a look at potential free agents the Phillies may have interest in this winter.

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Stock Up, Stock Down for Philadelphia Phillies’ Top 10 Prospects for Week 11

The Philadelphia Phillies will see two more of their minor league teams begin play this week when both Williamsport (Low-A ball) and the Gulf Coast League Phillies (rookie ball) open their seasons.

Although these teams will not feature any of the Phillies’ current top-10 prospects, both squads should feature prospects chosen in the two most-recent drafts.  Once prospects are re-ranked, a couple of the Phillies’ most recent draft picks may be playing in a short-season league and ranked as among the 10 best in the system.

In the meantime, those players currently ranked as top-10 prospects are continuing to work their way towards the major leagues.  As the major league trade deadline approaches, the Phillies will not just look at ways for improving this season, but also into the future. 

At that point, a number of these prospects, especially those already in Triple-A, could factor into upcoming decisions.

Just how well did those prospects ranked among the franchise’s top-10—according to Baseball America—fare this past week?

Let’s take a look at whose stock is up and whose is down following Week 11.

 

*All statistics courtesy of MiLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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Ruben Amaro Jr. Is Dead Wrong in Wanting to Build Around Phillies Ace Cliff Lee

Starting pitcher Cliff Lee and general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. of the Philadelphia Phillies both want to win, but they might soon do it on different teams.

The Phillies have come to a fork in the road, and the club has to decide whether to blow up the remaining pieces from the last few years of success or build around aging stars.

On Thursday, Lee told Ryan Lawrence of the Daily News that he just wants to win and he doesn’t mind leaving Philly to do so:

“I definitely want to win—there’s no doubt about that,” Lee said when asked if he wanted to remain in Philly.

And what if the team is still going nowhere fast a month from now?

“I want to win,” Lee repeated. ‘I don’t know how else to say it besides that. I want to win.”

Lee has been rumored to be on the trade block all season. The Phillies aren’t contending for a playoff spot at 32-35, and he would be a valuable asset to a contending team.

Cliff Lee prefers Philly, but he just wants to win somewhere. http://t.co/53lSmgSy6o

— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) June 14, 2013

In an article from ESPN’s Jayson Stark, Amaro responded to Lee’s comments on Friday, but he didn’t seem nearly as open to a trade as Lee is.

They’re all rumors, and we don’t comment on rumors. But I don’t see what the benefit would be to our organization to trade [Lee]. They’re players we’ve got who can help us win, and we’re better off with them than without them.

People would like us to improve our club, but at what cost? You have to have replacement pieces if you’re going to trade someone like that.

If we have [guys like Lee] at the top of our rotation, we’re a better club. … It starts and ends with pitching, as far as I’m concerned. So the more quality pitching you have, the better chance you have to build around that to win.

He doesn’t have a “trade-me” clause. So while I understand that he wants to play for a winner, I think we can provide that for him in Philadelphia.

Amaro and Lee are clearly not on the same page right now, and the Phillies GM is making a big mistake by not trading the 34-year-old ace.

Lee has been on fire this year, going 8-2 with a 2.55 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, despite getting just 3.57 runs of support per start this year. There is a market for Lee, but Amaro appears to be ignoring it.

Mike Axisa of CBS Sports reported that the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals have expressed interest in Lee, and at least one of those clubs has to be willing to make an interesting offer.

However, as Axisa also said, Lee’s hefty contract will be weighing on the minds of those GMs interested in him and will limit the market:

The Phillies owe Lee roughly $17 million the rest of this year, and he’s under contract for another $62.5 million through 2015 if his option for 2016 doesn’t vest. If it does—he needs to throw 200 innings in 2015 or 400 total innings from 2014-2015 to lock it in—he’s owed $77.5 million from 2014-2016. That’s a lot of money for an aging pitcher who is showing at least small signs of decline. Now is as good a time as any to move him and kick-start a rebuild.

Despite the financial costs to bring in Lee, the benefit to a contender could outweigh the price.

With an ace like Lee, a team like the Red Sox or Cardinals would become the front-runner for the World Series. That could be worth an extra $40 million or so, depending on how much the Phillies kick in.

What’s the benefit to the Phillies? They could bring in a few top prospects for their bona fide ace.

If Lee goes to the Orioles, top pitching prospects Dylan Bundy or Kevin Gausman might be part of the trade.

If the Red Sox pick up Lee, young pitchers such as Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, Anthony Ranaudo and Matt Barnes might be up for grabs.

If Lee is traded to the Cardinals, Lance Lynn might wind up in Philly, or Michael Wacha and Tyler Lyons could join the pitching staff.

Any team interested in Lee would have to put together a substantial package that would bolster Philadelphia’s farm system and prepare the team for the future. Amaro’s only choice is to rebuild the Phillies by exchanging Lee for young prospects.

What’s the alternative? Building a team that is already 7.5 games out of a playoff spot around a 34-year-old pitcher who is declining? That’s insane. While Lee might have two good years left, fresh young talent could help the Phillies for the next decade.

The Phillies have an aging roster that needs to be blown up, and the team should be trying to rebuild around young guns like outfielders Domonic Brown and Ben Revere and ace Cole Hamels, who is five years younger than Lee.

Lee could be the biggest prize on the trade market, and he would warrant two, three or even four talented prospects in return. If Amaro passes up the chance to rebuild the Phillies with youth, he would be making a big mistake.

Follow @JoshSchoch

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Philadelphia Phillies Have Been Solved on Both Sides, It Comes Down to Pitches

It sounds so simple, doesn’t it?  It comes down to pitches.  What the heck is he talking about?

Have the Philadelphia Phillies been figured out?  It certainly would seem so. 

How they have been figured out is another question altogether.  I am arrogant enough to believe that I have the answer.

So, often this year, and in past years—even the successful ones—this team has either had trouble scoring runs or has been completely inconsistent with their offense.

This is not even remotely close to being a secret.

However, I get a little bit tired of what the stat nerds are saying—that it comes down to OBP and walks.  It does, and it doesn’t.

What it comes down to is how many pitches these batters are seeing and how they are working opposing pitchers. 

OBP and walks are a badge of this practice, but they do not tell the entire story. 

The entire story is exactly this: be a thorn in the opposing pitcher’s backside!

Remember the 1993 Phillies?  That team went an entire season without being shut out.  An entire season!

This year’s team has trouble getting through a week or two without being shut out. 

When you have no plate discipline, that is what happens. 

That ’93 team went out of its way to annoy the heck out of the other teams pitchers, their number one goal being to get the starter out of the game as soon as possible.  Relievers are relievers because they generally are not as good as starters, perhaps excluding ideal set-up men and closers.

In 2008, the Phillies did not hit opposing starters particularly well.  They won many ballgames after their relief pitchers got into the game, on both sides of the diamond.  Our bullpen held, theirs got shelled. 

In the past couple of years, that trend has reversed itself.  Well, sort of. 

Our bullpen has been shelled, theirs has predominantly been invisible.

Why?  Well, you aren’t going to see much of another team’s pen if their starter has 68 pitches through seven innings.

Personally, I thought that this team was realizing this when, at last year’s deadline, they unloaded Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino, two notorious poorly disciplined hitters.

It was my hope that they were trying to change the club’s approach at the plate.  Not so.

This year, it is as bad as it ever has been. 

I’m not saying that first pitch swinging is always bad, but there is absolutely a time and place for it. 

Ask Cole Hamels.

Ask Cole Hamels?  Yes, ask Cole Hamels.

One of the main reasons for Hamels’ troubles this year (yes, I know he has no run support, but he hasn’t been stellar on the mound either) is that teams are working his pitch count in the early innings. 

This past start is an absolute reflection of that.  Hamels went scoreless through three innings, but he had a pitch count of right around 60 when three innings were complete.  In the fourth, he was trying to be more economical, catching too much of the plate, and he got hit…hard!

That is why I say that teams are getting it.  That is the reason that Cliff Lee tends to be the diamond in the rough this year.  Cliff Lee will always pound the strike zone from the beginning.  It is difficult to work the pitch count on a guy like that. 

Basically, when I say that the Phillies have been figured out, I mean that teams have figured out that if they can get the starter’s pitch counts up and get into our bullpen early, they have a better chance to win the game.

Conversely, they also know that the Phillies are a totally undisciplined ballclub with the sticks.  How many times do we have to watch a batter walk on four pitches followed by a batter that swings at the first? 

These Phillies are frustrating to watch for many reasons, but personally, I believe that this is the biggest one. 

It might just be me, but I’m tired of turning on the tube and seeing the Phillies losing 2-0 in the 6th inning with some mediocre starting pitcher’s pitch count at 62. 

Watching a team that cannot score is maddening.  Knowing why is worse.  Knowing that the other team is doing to you what you should be doing to them?  You got it…even worse!

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Players Who Are Proving the Doubters Wrong

For the critics who said that the Philadelphia Phillies would be an average to below-average team in 2013 before the season…well, you were right.

The good news? The Phillies climbed above .500 on Thursday. The bad news? It’s not Thursday anymore, and the Phillies went from a five-game winning streak to a three-game slump and now sit at 31-33.

In terms of trade deadline implications, they could either buy or sell at this point, though with a few more losses without wins to boot, the latter becomes more likely. But I’ll save that point for later.

However, a select few players on the Phillies have lived up to their standards or, more importantly, defied the standards which the public placed upon them. Here’s a list of five players who have surpassed the threshold of what was expected of them in 2013.

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Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Making Big Mistake Not Blowing up Roster

The pain of 2013 doesn’t look like it’s going to end anytime soon for the Philadelphia Phillies.

With overpriced and often injured veterans throughout the roster, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has said he will not be blowing up the roster, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.

People think we’re going to blow up this team. We’re never going to be in the position of blowing up. There’s no blowing up. There might come a time when we make changes to improve for the future, but we don’t have a reason to blow it up. Boston didn’t blow it up last year. They retooled. That’s the challenge we have whether it’s July 31 or November 1.

While the word choice may be different, one has to wonder if Amaro Jr. is making a huge mistake by not trading away some of his higher-priced veterans. Is it worth keeping guys like Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Chase Utley and Jonathan Papelbon?

Before we delve into those players, let’s look at the players who should stay and the minor league prospects who might contribute in the near future.

 

Continue the Youth Movement

It’s important to note the players who aren’t going anywhere. The Phillies can build their core with these young talents.

Starter Cole Hamels is as close to untouchable as there is on Philadelphia’s roster. While he has struggled this year, the Phillies signed him to a six-year, $144 million contract last year. It’s safe to say he’s going nowhere.

Then there’s Domonic Brown, who has been on an absolute tear this year. He’s batting .289 with 19 home runs and 47 RBI. Many gave up on him as a former top prospect, but he’s finally coming through.

Jonathan Pettibone and Ben Revere also can be considered part of the young core and will get better with time. Neither is likely to go anywhere, either.

 

Rebuild with Minor Leaguers

When the Phillies consider trading players, they must also look at their potential replacements in the minor leagues.

LHP Jesse Biddle ranks as the No. 55 prospect in baseball, while RHP Ethan Martin ranks No. 72, according to MLB.com. Both are expected to be in the rotation next year.

Three Class-A players—catcher Tommy Joseph, shortstop Roman Quinn and OF/1B Larry Greene—are still a few years away but should contribute when they do reach the big leagues.

Others like third basemen Cody Asche and Maikel Franco could also make an impact in the near future.

 

Trade Overpriced Players

Now that we know what the Phillies do have, let’s look at their assets in the big leagues.

Cliff Lee is the first name on anyone’s list of potential pieces to be traded away.

With the Phillies going nowhere this year, he could be moved for a few pieces that could bolster their minor league system.

He could also return a major league-ready outfielder, which is another area of concern for the Phillies. Unlike other positions, there’s no relief in sight from the minor leagues.

Then there’s Roy Halladay, who has struggled this year but could still do a lot for another team. A team like the Oakland Athletics (which could lose Bartolo Colon as a result of the Biogenesis scandal) could use his services.

Then there’s Jonathan Papelbon, who isn’t getting the same opportunities he’s accustomed to. He’s one of the highest-paid closers in the game ($13 million) and isn’t getting the opportunity to earn his keep.

What value does he bring to the Phillies, which are likely out of the playoff race?

Lastly, there is Utley, who is a fan favorite in Philadelphia.

His abilities at the plate at a normally weak position make him a valuable commodity on the trade market. Outside of Brandon Phillips, Ian Kinsler and Robinson Cano, there isn’t a more consistent hitter at second base than Utley. He will also be a free agent after this year.

Lee, Halladay, Papelbon and Utley are being paid a combined $73 million this year. Trading them could clear some serious cap room on the books to make a run at some free agents this offseason.

 

Bottom Line

The bottom line is the Phillies have a bunch of players that teams would be interested in, but they have to be willing to make the moves.

Right now, all they’re doing is playing sub-par baseball with the third highest payroll in MLB.

How is that fiscally smart?

Instead of retaining these players and watching them lead Philadelphia to a losing season, Amaro Jr. should swallow his pride and get to work at rebuilding the Phillies into a winning baseball team once again.

Right now, it’s a joke to see how much they’re paid and how bad they’re performing.

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