Stock Up, Stock Down for Philadelphia Phillies’ Top 10 Prospects for Week 10

In a week in which much of the news surrounding prospects involved those eligible for the 2013 MLB draft, the prospects already in the Philadelphia Phillies minor league system continued to work their way towards a major league promotion.

Although not currently ranked as a top-10 prospect, second baseman Cesar Hernandez remained on the team’s roster as the Phillies instead sent Michael Martinez to Triple-A. 

Soon, however, other prospects may not have the same luck.  The Phillies will have to make decisions involving pitchers Jonathan Pettibone and Tyler Cloyd in the next few weeks, as John Lannan recovers from injury and Carlos Zambrano’s opt-out date draws nearer. 

Eventually, newly drafted prospects such as J.P. Crawford—who may find himself ranked next to Jesse Biddle as one of the team’s top prospects—and even Cord Sandberg may enter this list once prospects are re-ranked.  But for now, current top-ranked prospects must hope to follow in the footsteps of Pettibone and earn a promotion this season.

To see how the Phillies’ top 10 prospects, according to Baseball America, fared this week, let’s take a look at whose stock is up and whose is down following Week 10.

 

*All statistics courtesy of MiLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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Cavan Biggio: Prospect Profile for Philadelphia Phillies 29th Round Pick

Player: Cavan Biggio

Drafted by: Philadelphia Phillies (No. 871 overall)

Position: 3B/2B

DOB: 4/11/1995 (Age: 18)

Height/Weight: 6’2”/180 lbs.

Bats/Throws: L/R

School: St. Thomas HS (Texas)

College Commitment: Notre Dame

 

Background

The son of should-be Hall of Famer Craig Biggio, who collected 3,060 hits over his 20-year career with the Houston Astros, Cavan has been a known commodity on the scouting scene for several years. However, the left-handed hitter’s draft stock didn’t take off until last summer, when he raked on the showcase circuit and turned in a strong performance for the Team USA 18U National Team.

It should come as no surprise that Biggio is one of the better prep hitters in this year’s class. Beyond the outstanding bloodline, Craig—who is also his high school coach—has been there to guide him every step of the way. Although he doesn’t possess the same amount of athleticism and tools as his father, Cavan has already drawn glowing reviews both for his bat and plate discipline, as well as his outstanding makeup.

The only thing preventing the youngster from being selected in the first round is his lack of a true defensive position; he’s serviceable at second and third base but currently lacks the speed and range to project at either spot long term. That being said, his advanced approach and promising hit tool will likely warrant consideration from several teams as a sandwich pick, but it’s more likely he’ll come off the board just beyond the first round. However, considering his strong commitment to Notre Dame—where his brother is currently a sophomore infielder—Biggio may be a tough sign if he’s not selected in the early rounds.    

 

Full Scouting Report 

Note: Numerical scores are on the conventional 80-point scouting scale, with the current score first and projected score second.

 

Hitting: 40/55

Smooth, balanced left-handed swing; advanced bat-to-ball ability; potential above-average hit tool; quick wrists; already exhibits barrel control and keeps it in the strike zone for an extended period of time; hits good pitching; feel for using the entire field; gets good extension after contact; ceiling tied to development of his bat; advanced approach for his age; controls the strike zone. 

 

Power: 35/50

Below-average power; plenty of room to grow into his 6’2”, 180-pound frame; should add considerable strength over the last year; present gap power; some pop to the pull side; average power potential at maturity.

 

Speed: 40/45

Below-average runner but not a baseclogger; may add a some speed as he gets stronger; compensates for average quickness with good instincts.

 

Defense: 40/50

Lacks true position; played mostly third base as an amateur; decent actions but lacks the quick feet and lateral range to profile there long term; solid glove and hands; could be developed as a second baseman; potential average defender at keystone; development of bat may influence future position; last resort move would be to left field.

 

Arm: 45/45

Below-average arm strength hurts his chances of sticking at third base; has some length to his arm stroke; clean release; should be serviceable as a second baseman.

 

MLB Player Comparison: Todd Walker

 

Projection: Everyday second baseman on a second-division team.

 

MLB ETA: 2016

 

Chances of Signing: 40%

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Trey Williams: Prospect Profile for Philadelphia Phillies’ 7th-Round Pick

Player: Trey Williams

Drafted by: Philadelphia Phillies (No. 2011 overall)

Position: 3B

DOB: 3/9/1994 (19 years old)

Height/Weight: 6’2”/210 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

School: College of the Canyons

Previously Drafted: 2012, 24th round by Cardinals

 

Background

If you recognize the name, it’s because Trey Williams was a highly touted prospect in last year’s draft. He had first-round helium heading into his senior campaign at Valencia High (Calif.), but his somewhat lethargic play and seemingly careless attitude during the season caused a drop to the 24th round.

It was then he decided against attending Pepperdine, where he was committed, in favor of attending College of the Canyons, a prestigious community college in his hometown with a sterling baseball program.

His performance for COC (.324, 6 HR, 26 RBI) has been solid, but it’s going to be hard to shake that stigma that caused his meteoric drop in 2012. Williams is the son of former major leaguer Eddie Williams, who played for the Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates.

 

Full Scouting Report

Note: Numerical scores are on the conventional 80-point scouting scale, with the current score first and projected score second.

Hitting: 50/65

Williams has a great bat; smooth, powerful swing; strong, quick hands; bat explodes off his bat; made consistent contact in high school, but has struggled for COC; 6-30 ratio of walks to strikeouts in 35 games in 2013; no problems against premium velocity; has struggled some against quality breaking balls; if he reaches his ceiling, he should be a .300 hitter; if he fails to adjust against breaking balls, he’ll rack up strikeouts and could be a .250 to .260 hitter.

 

Power: 50/65

Great bat speed makes him very dangerous against premium velocity; makes loud contact, so loud that most balls he squares up sound like they’re leaving the yard; struggles against breaking balls this season are slight cause for concern; will likely rack up a fair share of strikeouts; ceiling of 30 to 35 home runs annually.

 

Speed: 40/45

Not graceful, but not a base-clogger either; exceptional athleticism makes up for lack of speed; definitely more quick than fast; runs the 60-yard dash in 7.07; has enough speed to be an asset in the outfield if he ends up there.

 

Defense: 50/55

Strong defender; good footwork around the bag at third; good reaction time; soft hands; played shortstop in high school and showed good range there; should be a slightly above-average defender at third base; great arm strength gives him an added weapon; if he bulks up, he could easily slide across the infield to first base, or he could offer solid defensive value in an outfield corner; all around great baseball instincts.

 

Arm: 55/60

Strong, accurate arm; has shown some rust at COC, committing 12 errors in 35 games; should develop into an above-average tool at the professional level; plays best at third base and left field.

 

MLB Player Comparison: Juan Francisco

 

Projection: everyday third baseman for second-division team; potential All-Star

 

MLB ETA: 2018

 

Chances of Signing: 85%

The main reason Williams chose to attend College of the Canyons, instead of Pepperdine, was because it provided a more direct route to the professional ranks.

After one strong season for COC and no more complaints about his lack of energy or passion, he should have no problem getting drafted higher than the 24th round. He’s practically a lock to sign.

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Jan Hernandez: Prospect Profile for Philadelphia Phillies’ 3rd-Round Pick

Player: Jan Hernandez

Drafted by: Philadelphia Phillies (No. 96 overall)

Position: 3B

DOB: 1/3/1995 (Age: 18)

Height/Weight: 6’3″/195 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

School: Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy (Puerto Rico)

College Commitment: None

 

Background

Like last year’s top pick, Carlos Correa, Jan Hernandez has drawn a lot of interest coming out of a Puerto Rico baseball academy. While he won’t be taken as high as his fellow countryman, Hernandez does offer a good package of tools that make him a second-round talent. 

Even though Hernandez has played shortstop throughout his amateur career, it is obvious from his huge frame and eventual weight gain that he is going to be pushed over to third base. Fortunately, he has a solid profile for the position and could turn into a quality big leaguer down the line. 

 

Full Scouting Report

Note: Numerical scores are on the conventional 80-point scouting scale, with the current score first and projected score second.

Hitting: 40/50

Good swing with some polish already; bat speed is very good, though not elite; will have some contact issues, even against average velocity, with big leg kick and uppercut finish; must prove he can adjust to pitches down in the zone to hit for average. 

 

Power: 40/50

Still growing into power, despite large frame already; swing is geared more for power than contact, but potential for strikeouts limit home run ceiling; if he adjusts to professional pitching, power could end up being better than average. 

 

Plate Discipline: 35/50

Capable of driving a fastball over the fence with ease; doesn’t get great reads on off-speed stuff; shows a tendency to chase pitches down in the zone; pitch recognition is below average; won’t walk a lot, but shows enough to get on base at a decent clip. 

 

Speed: 45/40

Already a fringe-average runner; not going to beat out a lot of infield hits, but should do better than just station to station in pros; speed will decrease as he ages and adds more weight; won’t be big part of his game in three years. 

 

Defense: 50/50

Shows solid footwork at shortstop right now; limited range now and in the future will push him to third base; good glove and soft hands will play well at third base; must learn to react to the hitter rather than the ball when he moves to hot corner. 

 

Arm: 60/60

Best present and future tool; can make all the throws from shortstop; very good moving deep into the hole on his right side; accuracy is very good; will have one of the better third base arms in the future. 

 

MLB Player Comparison: Will Middlebrooks

 

Projection: Average third baseman on first-division team with good power potential. 

 

MLB ETA: 2017

 

Chances of Signing: 90%

While it is dangerous to put such a high number on a high school-aged player, when you really break Hernandez down, it seems clear that he is almost a lock to sign on the dotted line as soon as he is selected. 

The biggest clue is that Hernandez has yet to commit to a college, though he is reportedly considering the University of Miami. By not committing yet, he is giving teams every indication that he is ready to start his pro career right away. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: June Slate of Underperforming Opponents Gives Phils Hope

The Phillies have 21 games left to play in June, having won five in a row to climb over .500. As it stands, only one of the teams they will play (the Colorado Rockies) is over .500 itself.

The Phillies have three more games against the Milwaukee Brewers, presently in last place in the National League Central.

From Milwaukee, they travel to Minnesota to play the Twins, who are currently four games under .500 and thus will be under .500 when the Phillies arrive.

The current 10-game road trip ends in Denver, where the Phillies will play the Rockies, who right now are a scant four games over .500.

The schedule for the rest of the month appeared to be pretty daunting before the season started, but for various reasons the last four series of June just do not seem all that scary right now.

The Phillies will come home to play the Washington Nationals for the first time in Philadelphia this season. You may recall that the Nationals were the consensus preseason favorite (on ESPN.com anyway) to win the National League East and perhaps the World Series.

As with the Phillies, though, the Nationals’ best-laid plans have been undercut by injuries and poor production from key members of their division-winning team of 2012.

Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg were supposed to become household names this season. Instead, they’re both hurt. Danny Espinosa is hitting .158. Ryan Zimmerman seems to have a case of throwing yips. Dan Haren is 4-7 with an earned run average of almost 5.50.

Suddenly, the faceoff with the Nationals is not nearly as terrifying as it might have been.

The Nationals series will be followed by three games against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. The Mets are currently 10 games under .500 and going nowhere fast. They are currently 29th (out of 30 MLB teams) in batting average, 27th in on-base percentage and 26th in slugging percentage.

June ends with the Phillies playing seven games on the West Coast, three against the underwhelming San Diego Padres (second-to-last in National League West right now) and then four against the stunningly bad Los Angeles Dodgers.

Look…down is up and white is black for this 2013 Phillies team. Their best hitter, Domonic Brown, was hitting .206 with two home runs on April 23. Roy Halladay just had shoulder surgery. Cole Hamels is 2-9. Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz are injured.

And yet, there are the Phillies, hanging around, not doing too much to get noticed but not doing too much to get buried, either.

If the Phillies are a good team, beating up on some of the bad teams they are slated to play would be an excellent way to prove it.

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Andrew Knapp: Prospect Profile for Philadelphia Phillies’ 2nd-Round Pick

Player: Andrew Knapp

Drafted by: Philadelphia Phillies (No. 53 Overall)

Position: C

DOB: 11/9/1991 (Age: 21)

Height/Weight: 6’1”/175 lbs.

Bats/Throws: B/R

School: California

Previously Drafted: 2010: Oakland Athletics (41st round)

 

Background

A 41st-round selection of the Oakland A’s out of high school in 2010, Knapp struggled to put things together during his first two seasons at Cal. Receiving playing time at several positions including right field, first base and designated hitter, the 6’1”, 175-pound switch-hitter batted just .253/.334/.386 between his freshman and sophomore seasons.

However, after moving behind the plate full time before the 2013 season, Knapp’s prospect stock has taken off. Additionally, he’s benefited from a strong season in a draft class that has but a few players expected to make an impact at the position. Overall, he batted .350/.434/.544 with 16 doubles, eight home runs and a 35/27 K/BB in 54 games for the Golden Bears.

He’s not a Day-1 talent compared to some of his peers, but Knapp definitely headlines the second tier of catchers in this year’s class.

 

Full Scouting Report

Note: Numerical scores are on the conventional 80-point scouting scale, with the current score first and projected score second.

 

Hitting: 40/55

Switch-hitter; consistent swing from both sides of the plate; features a toe-tap trigger and compact, quick swing from the left side; hips tend to drift forward, and he’ll open up with his front side to compensate; more length to right-handed swing; more of a rotational swing; good extension through the ball.

 

Power: 40/50

Average power potential from both sides of the plate; his tendency to roll over his front foot will limit his ability to hit for power; left-handed swing is more geared towards power; more forceful swings from the right side; will probably hit more doubles than home runs; could increase power by adding more strength to 6’1”, 175-pound frame.

 

Speed: 40/40

Athletic ballplayer but lacks true speed; good mobility for his size; moves well enough to get looks in the outfield if he can’t stick behind the plate.

 

Defense: 45/55

Work in progress behind the plate; first full season as a catcher since arriving at Cal; understandably raw at the position, but has made significant strides this spring; below-average receiver who’s struggled with good velocity and secondaries; quick feet; catch-and-throw skills are improving; quick release.

 

Arm: 60/60

Above-average arm strength; profiles favorably behind the plate; impressive ability to control running game despite lack of experience; throws are accurate with carry.

 

MLB Player Comparison: A.J. Pierzynski

 

Projection: Solid-average regular.

 

MLB ETA: 2016

 

Chances of Signing: 85 percent

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J.P. Crawford: Prospect Profile for Philadephia Phillies’ 1st-Round Pick

Player: J.P. Crawford

Drafted by: Philadelphia Phillies (No. 16 Overall)

Position: SS

DOB: 1/11/1995 (Age: 18)

Height/Weight: 6’2”/180 lbs

Bats/Throws: L/R

School: Lakewood (Calif.) HS

College Commitment: Southern California

 

Background

Much like this year’s crop of catching prospects, the high-level middle infield talent—meaning potential Day 1 draft picks—can be counted on one hand. Of those select few players, prep shortstop J.P. Crawford stands out with the potential for four average or better tools and, more importantly, the perceived likelihood that he’ll be able to stick at the position as a professional.

A cousin of Dodgers outfielder Carl Crawford, J.P. is an impressive athlete with a projectable 6’2”, 180-pound frame. And after becoming a known commodity last season on the summer showcase circuit, the left-handed hitting shortstop has only strengthened his draft stock with a strong showing this spring at Lakewood (Calif.) High School.

Although some scouts continue to question his ability to handle shortstop at the next level, Crawford will without a doubt be drafted at the position in the first round on June 6. And while he may require an extra year or two of seasoning in the minor leagues, the final product could be well worth the wait.

 

Full Scouting Report

Note: Numerical scores are on the conventional 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is average, with the current score first and projected score second.

Hitting: 35/55

Potential for a slightly above-average hit tool; loose wrists and forearms with quick-twitch muscles; strong core; above-average bat speed; hits off a strong front side; left-handed hitter with contact-oriented approach; swing can get long at times and barrel will drag; tends to drift toward contact with hips; improving bat-to-ball ability; laces line drives across entire field.

 

Power: 30/40

At best, average power potential; should have consistent pop to the gaps at maturity; will need to make significant adjustments to his weight transfer and bat path in order to hit for average power.

 

Speed: 50/50

Good athlete with lean 6’2”, 180-pound build; speed is currently average; but can’t rule out the chance of improving a grade with the addition of strength; plays better in game settings than straight-line running.

 

Defense: 50/60

Athleticism and quickness are on display at shortstop; smooth, fluid actions; above-average range by lengthy strides and long arm; should be able to gain additional range with a looser and more active pre-pitch setup; lower half/core can be too rigid at time of contact; room to improve regarding his first step; gets rid of the ball quickly; demonstrates body control while making plays on the run.

 

Arm: 60/60 

Plus arm strength; effortless, fast arm stroke results in accurate throws across the infield with carry; does a nice job of generating momentum toward his target with athletic footwork; aids the overall accuracy of his throws. 

 

MLB Player Comparison: Starlin Castro

 

Projection: Average everyday MLB shortstop; potential No. 2 hitter if bat develops.

 

MLB ETA: Late 2017

 

Chances of Signing: 99.9 percent

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Philadelphia Phillies MLB Draft Results: Scouting Profiles for 2013 Picks

If it seems like it’s been a few years since the Philadelphia Phillies had a first-round draft pick, well, that’s because it has.

The Phillies have not had a first-round draft pick since they selected Jesse Biddle in the first round in 2010.  The signings of Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon for the 2011 and 2012 seasons, respectively, led to the Phillies’ first selection in the past two drafts coming after the first round.

After avoiding the temptation to sign any player tied to draft pick compensation last offseason, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and the Phillies now hold the 16th pick in this year’s first-year player draft after finishing last season with a record of 81-81.

Will the Phillies focus on position players or look to pitchers again after selecting Shane Watson with their first pick last year?  Will a high-ceiling high school player be their top choice, or are they leaning toward a college player who may reach the majors quicker?

Teams have begun locking up their star players with long-term extensions well before they reach free agency, giving the draft even more importance for teams trying to improve their future outlook.  For the Phillies, it all starts with making the right picks in the 2013 MLB draft.

Track all of the Phillies’ picks here:

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Phillies Fan Puts Way Too Much Sunscreen on Lips

This scene, which features a Phillies fan applying way more sunscreen than anyone should ever use on their lips, comes to us from Wednesday’s game against the Marlins. 

It’s even worse as a Vine. 

Via The Big Lead,  @JimmyTraina

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What Changed in Turning Domonic Brown from Prospect Flop to Budding Superstar?

By the time you finish reading this sentence, Domonic Brown may have hit two more home runs.

That’s how hot the Philadelphia Phillies outfielder is.

Brown, 25, had hit—count ’em—nine homers in his past 10 games entering play Tuesday, a ridiculous streak of power hitting that has helped the former top prospect-turned-bust morph miraculously into the National League’s home run leader with 17.

So how’d this happen?

 

Going From the Background…

You may recall that Brown was once one of baseball’s elite prospects, ranking as high as No. 4 overall by Baseball America prior to the 2011 season. He was viewed as a raw yet uber-athletic talent with the potential for five plus tools.

Safe to say, though, things didn’t come easily or quickly for Brown at the major league level. In his first taste of the bigs, he hit .210/.257/.355 in a mere 70 plate appearances spread out over the final few months of 2010. No biggie—small sample size and all that.

Entering 2011, Brown seemed to be in position to take Philly by storm. Over that winter, starting right fielder Jayson Werth took the $126 million given to him by the Washington Nationals and ran. That opened up a spot for Brown, only March surgery to repair a broken hamate bone in his right hand—an injury that has been known to sap power for months after—came at perhaps the worst possible time.

And so Brown was once again relegated to the minor leagues. After a midseason call-up that lasted about two months—he hit .245/.333/.391—Brown became a spectator after the Phillies traded for Hunter Pence that summer.

Last year was more of the same. Brown split his time between Triple-A and the majors, hitting .235/.316/.396 in 56 games—the exact same number he’d played in 2011—only this time, he was promoted only after the trade deadline once the Phillies had moved Pence to the San Francisco Giants and Shane Victorino to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

All in all, through his first three partial seasons in MLB, Brown’s stats looked like this:

Not exactly impressive, especially for a guy who was seen as a can’t-miss prospect.

But the numbers also aren’t entirely off-putting, either. If you combine all three years, like the table does, Brown hit 24 doubles, knocked 12 homers and approached 60 runs and RBI, all while showing a very good walk rate (10.4 percent) and a perfectly commendable strikeout rate (18.9 percent).

He did this, by the way, in less than one full season’s worth of at-bats.

The hole in his game? That .236 batting average, which wasn’t good, but it was also driven down by BABIPs (per FanGraphs) that were lower than league average at .282 in 2010, .276 in 2011 and .260 in 2012.

In other words, with a little better luck, Brown’s introduction to Major League Baseball would have looked better than it did.

 

…to the Forefront

Two key things have happened for Brown to help him come to the forefront of the sport over the past month or so.

The first is his swing.

Brown’s swing, specifically the placement of his hands as he awaits the pitch, has been changed a few times along the way.

At right is a breakdown, from 2011, of Brown’s hands and swing by Harold Reynolds on MLB Network.

As you can see, Brown used to hold his hands very high and very far back. The Phillies had Brown drop his hands dramatically in hopes of eliminating some of the movement and what Reynolds calls the “scoop” in his swing.

Two years later, he’s maintained that starting point for the most part, but he’s also noticeably quieted his pre-pitch load—the movement of the hands just prior to starting the swing—while also shortening and leveling out his swing path.

You can read about this in pieces written this March by Sam Donnellon of the Philadelphia Daily News and Eno Sarris of FanGraphs.

Better yet, you can see this for yourself in the second video, from MLB’s Official YouTube channel, of his homer binge against the Red Sox this May.

To sum up the changes: Brown is quieter in his setup and load, allowing him to be quicker to the ball, and his swing is staying in the hitting zone longer.

The second big change is more direct: He’s playing.

Fact is, while Brown had accrued nearly 500 plate appearances in his big league career prior to the start of this season, those had come in random, inconsistent fits and starts of action. A couple weeks here, a month or two there. It wasn’t conducive to developing a young player at the game’s highest level.

Part of the problem on this front was that Brown looked like he was ready to help the Phillies at a time when the club was still in the thick of competing as a World Series contender. That’s a very difficult environment for a relatively inexperienced player to join, especially in a city as unforgiving as Philadelphia can be, because if success isn’t immediate, it usually means “see ya later, kid.”

 

The Caveat

Here’s where the “but” comes in.

As fantastic as Brown’s month of May was—he hit .303 with 12 homers and 25 RBI—he did something both incredibly unique and somewhat suspicious.

Brown managed his monster month while failing to draw even a single base on balls. In fact, among players who hit the most homers in a month without walking, Brown bashed 12, four more than anyone else ever had in MLB history, according to Baseball Reference.

[Note: Brown actually hit 12, but that’s part of the reason we love MLB’s Peter Gammons.]

That’s simultaneously freakishly good and bad.

On one hand, wow. On the other hand, those sort of results from that kind of approach simply will not last.

The good news? Brown did walk nine times in 97 April plate appearances, and he’s already walked twice in 18 PAs in June. It seems that the walk-less May was an outlier, particularly for a player who owns a career 8.7 walk percentage per FanGraphs.

 

The Future

The changes described above have been a big part of Brown’s success this year, and they also go hand in hand. The more Brown plays, the more he can work on finding and honing his swing at the major league level. For players like Brown, who had success in the high minors and no longer needed to prove anything down on the farm, it’s often about getting the chance and getting reps in the majors.

That didn’t happen, really, until this season.

Basically, the pedigree and the talent have always been there for Brown. What’s held him back up until now were injury and a lack of PT—neither of which were his fault. With those two obstacles removed from the picture, Brown is free to become the player many thought he was destined to be.

Whether he gets there or not, well, that’s up to him. Finally.

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