Why Philadelphia Phillies Should Be Sellers at MLB Trade Deadline

It is about that time of the Major League Baseball season.

Despite having played only a little over a third of their season, the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders. And with that separation comes speculation of whether certain teams will be buyers or sellers come the MLB trade deadline at the end of July.

One team that faces a particularly tough decision this year is the Philadelphia Phillies.

Currently sitting seven-and-a-half games back of the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves and seven games back of the second wild-card spot, the Phils are slowly starting to see their season get out of hand.

Now, this is not to say that the Phillies are totally out of the playoff hunt. After all, it is only the beginning of June. And of course, it was less than six years ago when the “Fightins” erased a seven-game deficit with 17 games remaining to snatch the division crown from the New York Mets.

However, this is a completely different team than what we saw back in that memorable fall of 2007. Gone are the days of seeing a healthy Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins take the field on a daily basis. The core of this team is six years older, and while they may still have some gas left in the tank, it is safe to say that the best years of their careers are behind them.

Before I go on, I must say that it is simply too early to say that Philadelphia will definitely be sellers come the July 31 trade deadline. Only the next six weeks will tell us whether the Phillies will look to start building for the future or add big-name talent in hopes of a last-gasp playoff run. 

However, the obvious must be stated: The Phillies are a team on the decline. Howard, Utley and Rollins are all on the wrong side of 30 years old. None of the three can be guaranteed to stay healthy or contribute regularly. Formerly the core of this franchise, the heart and soul of Philadelphia’s beloved baseball team, these three can no longer be counted on to lead the Phillies to the playoffs and beyond.

Even the starting pitching, which was said to be the bright spot on this Phillies roster, can no longer be trusted. Roy Halladay cannot seem to stay healthy, Cole Hamels is having one of the worst years of his career and the back end of this rotation simply does not have the experience to take over the reigns just yet.

Despite positive performances this season by Cliff Lee, Kyle Kendrick and Jonathan Pettibone, the Phillies are simply not getting consistent outings from their starting rotation.

All in all, the outlook is not bright for Philadelphia.

So, what does this mean for the team’s trade deadline plans?

Although Philadelphia may not have the best chance to make the playoffs this season, this does not silence the fact that this team still has plenty of talent on its roster.

Namely, Cliff Lee, who has been having an outstanding season compiling a 7-2 record with a 2.45 Earned Runs Average, may in fact be one of the players that Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. decides to deal by the July 31 deadline. 

At age 34 and set to earn $75 million over the next three seasons, the time is winding down for Lee to win a championship in Philadelphia. Amaro Jr. may well decide that if Lee’s age and money is too much for him to stay in the City of Brotherly Love, then it could be his time to go. Apparently, even Lee is preparing himself to be in another deadline trade.

However, Lee is not the only one who could find himself out of Philadelphia before the end of the summer. Chase Utley, the beloved second baseman for the Phillies, may be playing in another uniform later this season.

At 34, Utley is in the final year of a seven-year, $85 million contract and is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. While Utley has been cursed with injuries throughout his career, he is still producing at a level that may interest teams who are looking to be contenders later this season.

With seven home runs and 25 RBI to go along with a .272 BA so far this season, Utley may be the missing piece for some teams who are looking for depth come the postseason. Moreover, Amaro Jr. may feel that he might not be able to re-sign Utley to the terms he may be looking for in the offseason. This might force Amaro Jr. to try and get some value for Utley while he still can.

However, the single biggest reason why the Phillies will turn out to be sellers come this year’s MLB trade deadline is their farm system. Or, shall I say, lack thereof.

According to Baseball America, the Phillies have the seventh-worst farm system in all of the major leagues. While fans love to see the big-name players such as Lee, Utley and Howard play at Citizens Bank Park on a regular basis, most would probably agree that it is time to restock the farm. 

It is clear that the Phillies’ window of opportunity is closing quickly. After a run of success from 2007-2011, Philadelphia’s record has tailed off significantly over the past year-and-a-half. One way to regain this success may well be to start from scratch and build for the future.

Becoming sellers at the trade deadline and dealing the likes of Lee, Utley and Rollins may be the best way to do so. 

Only time will tell whether or not the Phillies become buyers or sellers in late-July. If, six weeks from now, the Phillies were to be right in the midst of the playoff hunt, then you can put money on this team staying together. 

However, as the age and the health of this roster is undoubtedly on the decline, the chances of this happening certainly seem bleak. While it is unlikely that the entire core of the Phillies roster will be traded, it is safe to expect that certain ballplayers will find themselves cleaning their lockers at Citizens Bank Park come later this summer.    

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Does Domonic Brown’s Recent HR Tear Make Him New Face of Phillies Franchise?

Domonic Brown has just hit his 14th home run since May 1. On the season, he has 17, which is best in the National League and tied for second in all of baseball.

What has gotten into Brown? Coming into this season, he had just 12 career home runs. Now, his home-run tear is turning him into the face of the Philadelphia Phillies. At just 25 years old, Brown has unlimited potential. He has incredible power and has shown how hot he can get. 

At this pace, he will finish the season with 47 home runs, according to ESPN.com. Those numbers will make him the most popular Phillie for years to come.

Let’s take a look at some of the biggest bombs from Brown’s remarkable run.

Here’s one against the San Francisco Giants, which makes a nice splash landing:

Take a look at this rope into the right-field seats in Miami:

Here’s an absolute bomb into right center against the Mets:

But his star-making month bodes well for the Phillies’ future—the more Brown can hit it out of the park, the better chance the Phillies have of winning.

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Stock Up, Stock Down for Philadelphia Phillies Top 10 Prospects for Week 10

The Philadelphia Phillies represent a franchise at the crossroads of contention, impending rebuilding and attempting to pry the window for postseason baseball open for one more run this summer.

At 27-30, with a run differential of -49, it’s not looking good for the team that came into the 2012 season with a run of five consecutive National League East crowns.

That’s why their farm system, specifically the crown jewels of their minor league affiliates, must be looked at critically over the next few months.

While Ruben Amaro and the Phils’ brass must decide if the 2013 team can compete for a postseason berth, assessing the roles of the young players in the system for the 2014 and 2015 teams may be even more vital.

Of course, this list could be amended at any time, assuming Philadelphia uses their trade commodities to add talent into the system.

For now, we dive into a stock watch for the Top 10 prospects in the system.

All stats courtesy MiLB.com and valid through the end of play on June 2.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Breaking Down Latest News Swirling Around Cliff Lee

It was not too long ago when Cliff Lee shocked the baseball world by announcing a return to the Philadelphia Phillies. Lee spurned a massive contract offer by the New York Yankees and instead returned to the City of Brotherly Love. 

When the news spread of Lee’s return to Philadelphia, fans and experts all across the league debated about whether Lee’s return gave the Phillies the best pitching rotation ever assembled.

Lee joined stars Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt, giving the Phillies—on paper—as good of a rotation as there ever has been in professional baseball. 

Fast-forward two-and-a-half years. The “Big Four” pitching rotation never lived up to its hype and Lee has yet to advance past the National League Division Series in his second stint with the Phillies.

Despite having reasonably good numbers for the past two-and-a-half years in Philly, Lee’s return has not, for one reason or another, lived up to the hype.

Therefore, it is no surprise to hear Lee’s name come up in MLB trade rumors.

This is the time of the season when the cream of the league is rising to the top and the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders. The standings are starting to shape up and teams are starting to be labeled as “buyers” or “sellers” come the trade deadline.

This leads us to Lee. Despite easily being Philadelphia’s best pitcher so far this season, posting a 7-2 record with a 2.45 ERA, the ‘Fightin’ Phils sit 7.5 games behind the NL East division leader Atlanta Braves and are losing ground rapidly.

As the core of the Phillies is not getting any younger or healthier (see: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins), some believe that it may be time to trade some of their biggest producers—including Lee—in order to start building for the future.

According to the SportsWorldReport.com, the Dodgers may be one team looking to deal for Lee:

With Beckett possibly retiring to staying on the DL long term, the Dodgers may want to try and make a big move for the future and one option could be to try and trade for Phillies starter Cliff Lee, as they may want to unload him depending on where the team is at the deadline.

Clearly, this trade would depend on the health of Josh Beckett.

Not only has Beckett had trouble staying healthy, but when he has been on the mound, he has struggled to say the least. Beckett has gone 0-5 with a 5.19 ERA and it would be safe to say that the Dodgers can put little confidence in their starting pitcher.

If Beckett continues to show that he cannot stay healthy or produce when given the green light by the team doctor, then a trade to Los Angeles may certainly be in the cards for Lee.

Furthermore, CBSSports.com’s Mike Axisa has listed several possible trade destinations for the Philadelphia ace.

One of the more intriguing options for Lee would be the Boston Red Sox. Currently sitting 2.5 games atop the AL East above the Baltimore Orioles, Boston could find itself in great position to become a buyer come the trade deadline.

While the BoSox have Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz sitting pretty at the top of their rotation, trading for Lee would be a significant upgrade over Felix Doubront, who has posted a less-than-impressive 4.88 ERA this season.

Acquiring Lee would give the Sox one of the best rotations in the league and instantly make them one of the favorites from the American League to reach the World Series.  

If Boston continues its impressive season throughout the early months of the summer and the Phillies continue on the decline, don’t be surprised to see Lee joining forces with the likes of David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury at Fenway Park.

Given the strength of Boston’s farm system, which was ranked sixth-best in the league by Baseball America, then it is safe to say that the Phillies can get a lot in return and start building for the future by trading Lee. 

However, when all is said and done, trades come down to where teams are at the trade deadline.

If, for some reason, the Phillies are able to get themselves back into the hunt for the NL East title, then there obviously would be no reason for the Phils to deal Lee.

However, if the Phillies are unable to get healthy and make a push during the next six weeks or so, then it is entirely possible to see Lee in a new uniform come July or August.  

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Domonic Brown Becomes Philadelphia’s Best Hitter with a New Swing

Big Brown—one of Ryan Howard‘s many nicknames—was bestowed upon the first baseman during his reign as the Philadelphia Phillies‘ best power hitter.  Now a changing of the guard is in order. Big Brown Part Deux: The Real Big Brown is already underway.

Not too long ago, Domonic Brown appeared to be a bust. Despite being named the fourth-best prospect in baseball by Baseball America after the 2010 season, Brown scuttled early on.

Not to mention that the DL seemed to call to Brown like a siren. First he suffered a hamate bone fracture in 2011 that required surgery. Then it was a slew of nagging muscle issues in 2012.

In the first three years of his career, Brown hit a mediocre .230/.302/.381. In his 433 at-bats, he hit 12 homers. That’s one homer per 36.1 at-bats. Now I’d say he’s just a tad better. Brown is currently batting .272/.306/.549 with 15 bombs. In 195 at-bats. Overall, that’s a homer per 13 at-bats. In the month of May, that number drops to a home run per nine at-bats.

I’ll do my due diligence and note that Brown’s OBP is still pretty bad. And there’s a clear reason for this. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Gelb, Brown walked exactly zero times in May. Before last night’s game, MLB Stat of the Day tweeted that Brown could go into the record books (which he did):

However, considering the Phillies Paradox (the team has one of the most anemic offenses in baseball despite playing in a hitter’s haven), this is a tradeoff the team is willing to take.

On Wednesday night—the day after he was named National League Player of the Week—Brown hit two jacks to lead the Phillies over the Boston Red Sox, 4-3. Gelb tweeted this during the game:

But Brown’s May heroics didn’t stop there. Last night, he raised his home run total in the month to 12 with another pair of bombs against the Milwaukee Brewers. That’s seven in seven days. Brown now has 15 dingers, which leads the NL.

Brown’s improvement may be due to a number of things. Maturation and playing everyday are certainly valid possibilities. In this case, however, something quite tangible is the culprit: his swing.

In an interview with Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly, Brown noted that he is cognizant of the fact that his recent success is due to the changes he’s made at the plate. 

“I think I just had a longer swing, now that I’m looking back on it,” Brown said. “I did a lot to my swing to shorten it up, especially in those good hitter’s counts, just being able to be short and quick to the ball.

The differences are slight but significant. Here is Brown flailing at a high fastball during spring training in 2012:

Now look at the much-improved Brown hit a game-tying single against the Arizona Diamondbacks just a couple of weeks ago:

Brown’s quick hands are a by-product of his new approach. In this instance, they enabled him to fight off a tough pitch and knock it in the gap between shortstop and third base. Brown’s 2012 swing would’ve likely had him undercutting this pitch, resulting in one of those big whiffs Philadelphia has learned to endure.

In an interview with the Philadelphia Daily News’ Ryan Lawrence, Chase Utley—who champions the short swing—noted that he has picked up on Brown’s shift.

“It’s noticeable. I think he’s in more control than he has been in the past. He’s made some adjustments in his stance, where his hands are, and that’s probably allowed him to be a little quicker to the baseball, shorter to the baseball.”

So we know Brown can perform when it counts. He has the ever-coveted intangibles. But he also measures up when it comes to good old statistics. Out of the Phillies with 50 or more at-bats (and this is being quite generous), Brown leads the team (or is tied for the lead) in six offensive categories: batting average (.272, tied with Utley), runs (25 to the second-most 21), home runs (15 to the second-most seven), RBI (36 to the second-most 26), slugging percentage (.549 to the second-highest .475), and OPS (.855 to the second-highest .814). And four of these said “second” spots are held by none other than the DL King himself, Mr. Utley. So if we had been going by active players here, Brown’s stats would’ve distanced himself even further from the pack.

Just for kicks, Brown is also only a smidge behind the team leaders in hits and doubles.

Other vast improvements for Brown are his splits. As is typically the case with lefties, Brown struggled mightily against lefty arms early in his career. Before this season, Brown was batting .184 against lefties and .244 against righties. Reminiscent of Howard’s early numbers (Big Brown numero uno was .179 against lefties and .329 against righties in his first three years). In 2013—and this is not a typo—Brown is hitting .326 against lefties and .255 against righties. His improved swing working in tandem with improved vision show to be a lethal combination.

 

*All statistics are accurate as of May 31.

**All statistics are from espn.com, Baseball-Reference.com, and MLB.com

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Philadelphia Phillies: Buyers or Sellers at MLB Trade Deadline?

Obviously we’re just over two months out from Major League Baseball’s trade deadline, but already there is some speculation as to who might find themselves to be buyers and who might be sellers come July 31. 

One of the more intriguing characters in this year’s midsummer drama will be the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Currently sitting at 26-29 and just six-and-a-half games behind the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves, the Phillies find themselves in quite the quandary. 

The Phillies and their fans have grown accustomed to winning. In fact, last year’s third-place finish was the first time since the 2006 season that the Phillies did not win the NL East. 

During that span from 2007 to 2011, the Phillies won five division titles, two National League pennants and one World Series.

Their 81-81 record in 2012 was simply unacceptable. 

However, the front office did little prior to the 2013 campaign to improve their roster. 

The additions of center fielder Ben Revere, right fielder Delmon Young and expected eighth-inning setup man Mike Adams have yet to pay off. Likewise, third baseman Michael Young has not provided much in terms of production. 

It’s time to come to a realization—the Phillies, as they are now, cannot compete with the elite teams in baseball.

The roster is littered with guys who find themselves in the onset of the twilight of their careers. 

Cornerstone players in this organization just can’t produce like they once could.

Ryan Howard—the hulking first baseman who was once a perennial MVP contender, even winning the award once in a season that saw him club 58 home runs—is a shell of his former self.

Howard is averaging one home run for every 31 at-bats. 

In contrast, during that MVP season in 2006, Howard knocked one out of the park every 12 at-bats. 

Chase Utley, the beloved second baseman, has battled knee problems in the past. While Utley has come back, he’s just not the same superstar player that he was during seasons past.

It’s unfortunate that it’s come to this, but this year, when the Phillies once again find themselves outside of contention, we should expect to see the team move into selling mode.

There are certainly singular players on this roster who are capable of being difference-makers. 

A team in contention that is one starting pitcher away from reaching the postseason would be hard pressed to find a better starting pitcher on the market this season than Cliff Lee. 

Of course, Lee is set to make $75 million over the course of the next three seasons. That’s a lot of money, and at age 34, it’s definitely a risk.

I’m sure, though, that the Phillies will find themselves with several suitors.

With pitching at a premium in the major leagues, Jonathan Papelbon is a legitimate top-level closer. He’s having a fantastic year and is just the kind of player who can make a good team a great team.

While Lee and Papelbon will be among the hottest commodities on the trade market, I feel like the Phillies will be willing to part with several other players. However, they won’t be sought with the same vigor.

Yes, I believe the Phillies will be willing to part with Howard, Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Mike Adams and the Youngs—Delmon and Michael. 

Of course, it’s unlikely that all these players will go. In fact, it’s totally possible that none of these guys will find themselves with another club on August 1. Contract lengths, salaries and no-trade clauses could seriously hamper any chance at making a worthwhile trade. 

The truth of the matter is this team has run its course, and now’s the time to rebuild. 

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