Stock Up, Stock Down for Philadelphia Phillies’ Top 10 Prospects for Week 14

The Philadelphia Phillies promoted their second top-10 prospect to the major leagues this past week, when Darin Ruf was called up from Triple-A to take the roster spot of the injured Ryan Howard.

Although Ruf’s numbers in Triple-A were not quite up to par with his numbers from Double-A last season, his promotion is still an intriguing one. 

A successful run from Ruf, combined with a prolonged absence from Howard, could lead to a platoon role at first base at some point in the future, or it could at least help Ruf stick on the roster.

It will be interesting to see if Ruf also receives playing time in left field, with Domonic Brown moving over to right for a few games here and there. 

If Ruf heats up, he could not only serve as a first base option, but he could also push Delmon Young for an outfield job. 

In the meantime, how did the rest of the team’s top-10 prospects fare this week?

Let’s take a look at whose stock is up and whose is down following Week 14.

 

*All statistics courtesy of MiLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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Philadelphia Phillies Trade Rumors: Latest Updates and Reaction

This year was a make-or-break season for the Philadelphia Phillies, and after seeing so many aging stars struggle it looks like it’s time for the Phils to blow it up.

According to ESPN’s Jayson Stark, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. repeatedly said that he has no intention of trading his biggest trade chips, including Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon. However, the team is well out of the playoff race and currently boasts one of the oldest rosters in the MLB.

The Phillies clearly look like sellers at the 2013 MLB Trade Deadline, and no matter what Amaro says, there are going to be tons of rumors floating around the City of Brotherly Love.

This is your rumor central for the Philadelphia Phillies, as we keep you updated on all the latest whispers, rumors and trades. Keep checking back, as this page will be constantly updated to bring you the most recent rumors about the Phillies.

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5 Keys to the Phillies Sweeping Braves, Getting Back into NL East Race

A belated happy Fourth of July to everyone, and, with that, to the Philadelphia Phillies as well.

In their series finale against baseball’s best team—the 52-32 Pittsburgh Pirates—on Thursday, the Phillies managed to take the series with a 6-4 victory.

The Phillies’ bats supplied Cole Hamels with enough run support for him to earn his third win of the 2013 season, lowering his ERA to 4.38. The Phillies also handed Pirates superstar rookie pitcher Gerrit Cole his first major league loss.

It was a fantastic and much-needed morale boost for the Phillies, who now sit at 41-45, nine games back of the division-leading Atlanta Braves at 49-35.

The Phillies’ upcoming weekend series against those Braves gives Philadelphia an opportunity to gain some ground in the NL East race. The two teams haven’t faced off since the third game of the season.

A Phillies sweep, or even a series victory, won’t be easy, with the Braves sending out their best starting arms to the mound in Tim Hudson, Paul Maholm and Kris Medlen. But it will definitely be possible for the Phillies to win all three games and gain some ground.

Here are five keys to the Phillies doing just that and making the NL East race much more interesting.

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Forecasting the 2014 Philadelphia Phillies: Domonic Brown, Youth Solidify Lineup

The shock emanating from the disastrous last year-and-a-half have many Phillies fans scratching their heads wondering what the future holds.

Unless traded at some point this summer, Chase Utley, Michael Young, Carlos Ruiz and Delmon Young are among the everyday Philadelphia players set to hit free agency in 2014.

As the non-waiver trade season heats up, Utley and Michael Young are among the cast of players in demand. The market is thin for catcher Ruiz, but Zach Links of MLB Trade Rumors.com believes the New York Yankees could be a possible destination for the 34-year-old backstop.

Meanwhile, absolutely no market exists for Delmon Young. Reserve player Laynce Nix is set to part ways with Philadelphia following the season as well.

Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. recently declared his intention of keeping Utley “in our uniform for the rest of his career, if possible.” However, Utley would be 35 years old in 2014, far from the ripe spring chicken he was when the Phillies brought home the Commissioner’s Trophy in 2008.

According to FanGraphs, Utley’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) has drastically fell from his peak seasons of 2008-09, going from 8.0 to 2.5 in 2013. The annual reduction in WAR is attributed to the multitude of injuries which run concurrent to his rapid aging on the diamond. 

Needless to say, Utley is no longer as indispensable as he once was. Rather, he should be auctioned off to the highest bidder in order to net the most profitable return in terms of prospects. The same can be said of the fluttering Young and Ruiz.

With the aforementioned changes considered, what does the future hold for Philadelphia?

There are four things we do know. First, Ryan Howard is not going anywhere. Second, Jimmy Rollins will be back to man shortstop. Third, Domonic Brown is the best thing going for the Phillies moving forward. Finally, Ben Revere is here to stay at center field.

In a perfect world, Cody Asche would be ready to man the hot corner next April with Tommy Joseph making plays behind the plate. Cesar Hernandez appears to be the near-term heir apparent to Utley.

After being named to the International League all-star squad, both Asche and Hernandez are expected to see “a bit more development time” in the minors before they are expected to reach the majors. 

On the other hand, Joseph continues to have setbacks with tje concussion he suffered on May 4, landing back on the disabled list. If the Joseph’s concussion proves to be as detrimental as the concussion suffered by Justin Morneau and Brian Roberts, Joseph may have a long way to go in returning to the potential he showed when he came to Philadelphia in the Hunter Pence trade last year.

Without a plethora of special talent expected to be available in free agency, the Phillies may have to look inward in order to round out their lineup next season. 

Without further ado, here is the projected lineup for the Phillies in 2014. 

1. CF Ben Revere (L)
2. 2B Cesar Hernandez (S)*
3. SS Jimmy Rollins (S)
4. 1B Ryan Howard (L)
5. LF Domonic Brown (L)
6. RF John Mayberry (R)*
7. 3B Cody Asche (L)
8. C John Buck (R)**

Obviously, the Phillies would have a serious power problem at the top of their lineup. Hernandez has already seen 28 plate appearances with the Phillies, but he is more useful defensively. If he can develop a better bat, he is a seamless fit for the No. 2 hole in 2014. 

Of course, the Phillies could pursue a second baseman in free agency if they choose to let Utley walk (or he is traded). However, the group of potential free agent second basemen is less than thrilling. Why offer Alexi Casilla a contract when Hernandez can provide the same projected numbers at a much more inexpensive and efficient cost?

Let’s not forget that Freddy Galvis remains a candidate for second base as well. Owning an outstanding glove, Galvis could be useful at certain points, but his .217 batting average is putrid. 

Meanwhile, Mayberry can be projected to platoon in right field. His position in the lineup can be attributed to the fact that the Phillies lack right-handed hitters. Minor leaguer Darin Ruf is an option here, but his defense remains suspect. 

The Phillies are expected to pursue an outfielder in the offseason, and lefty Ryan Sweeney could be a possibility to fill a void in situational hitting.

For projection purposes, the Phillies are likely to pursue catching help via free agency. With Ruiz’s contract set to expire, the only immediate internal options are Erik Kratz and Humberto Quintero. Joseph is highly unlikely to open 2014 as the Phillies’ starting catcher and the combination of Kratz and Quintero is negligible at best.

The options to make a big splash in free agency are simply not there for the Phillies. While Robinson Cano is expected to remain with the Yankees, Carlos Beltran and Nelson Cruz could be pursued, but they are likely to demand more money than the Phillies will be willing to shell out. Both sluggers are on the wrong side of 30 and come with potential injury issues.

If anything, Phillies fans can look forward to 2014 as being another stage in the rebuilding process in Philadelphia while lingering reminders of the franchise’s recent glorious past continue to take the field.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Handing out 1st-Half Awards to Most Deserving Phillies

Obviously, it has not been the best year for the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Currently they have a 40-45 record, which is good enough for just third in the NL East. They are 9.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the division and 8.5 out of a playoff spot via the Wild Card. And yes, there is still time to turn it around, but it is looking more and more like the Phillies will be selling off at the July 31 trade deadline.

But before we get to that, it is time to acknowledge the fact that more than half of the season, 85 games to be exact, has been played.

Putting aside the negatives, the Phillies have had some exciting moments and some players that are worthy of being commended. It is likely very few of these players will receive recognition in the form of an end-of-the-year award or even an All-Star selection, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be acknowledged for strong first halves.

Consider this Philadelphia’s very own award show, here to honor the first half of the season Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, MVP, Comeback Player of the Year, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. 

So, the envelopes please, because it is time to announce the midseason award winners for the Philadelphia Phillies.

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Should the Philadelphia Phillies Trade Franchise Cornerstone Chase Utley?

Chase Utley is one of the greatest players in Philadelphia Phillies history, yet suddenly, with a season going nowhere and an aging roster in need of a serious reboot, Utley has become one of the most polarizing players as well.

The summer is slipping away in Philadelphia, and there are months to go before a meaningful football game will be played. There is only so much talk of the offseason moves by the Flyers and Sixers that Philly sports fans can take. The Phillies, and all their warts, dominate the airwaves.

The hot topic has shifted from “buy or sell” to “who can we sell,” with Utley being one of the top names—and hottest debates—on the list.

The Phillies have been the alpha dog in town since winning the World Series in 2008, mostly because the fans believed the baseball team had the best chance to bring another title to a city that has hosted just one parade in the last 30 years. People in Philly will never forget that parade, in part because it meant so much to the town and in part because of Chase Utley’s epic “world f*cking champions” speech on the dais.

Utley was a hero on that championship team before his three-sheets-to-the-wind speech at Citizens Bank Park, but he became an instant legend after it.

As wildly inappropriate as it was—someone think of the children, and all that—Utley said what everyone in town was feeling. F*cking finally, or as the team put on as many t-shirts as they could print…Phinally. 

Utley had just three hits in that World Series, batting .167 in the five-game series over Tampa Bay, but on the strength of two home runs, five runs scored and four driven in, he has long been considered one of the 2008 World Series heroes.

It’s hard to explain to people who don’t live around Philly how much Utley has meant to the city. There is seemingly at least one kid named Chase in every grade school classroom in the area. Hell, my next-door neighbors named their dog Utley. Is there a more fitting honor than that?

For some reason—for many reasons—fans in Philadelphia aren’t able to let that guy go, even though that guy, and at least that player, has been gone for a long time.

The 2008 World Series was a blessing for Philadelphia, but the aftermath has felt like something of a curse. The team overspent on far too many contracts, paying too many players more than it should have as a thank you for helping bring a title to the town. The Phillies gave Jamie Moyer a sweetheart deal after the World Series, so it was no surprise when someone as important as Ryan Howard got $25 million per year for what feels like eternity.

The Howard contract, more so than the other megadeals that have come since to the likes of Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, has felt like a tightening noose around the neck of the franchise. 

And yet at times over the last four seasons, it has felt like Utley, more than Howard or any other player, has been the one holding the team hostage.

Fans seem willing to accept (or excuse) the fact that Utley’s knee injuries set the team back in spring training for two straight years, forcing management to make decisions with the roster it may not have done had Utley been healthy or, at the very least, more forthright with his inability to get on the field.

Freddy Galvis looked like he could be the replacement to Jimmy Rollins before the 2012 season, but the Phillies decided to re-sign Rollins to a fair-market deal in part because nobody knew what the hell was going to happen with Utley.

A few seasons later, and nobody seems upset that Rollins may be dealt, despite his long-standing, deep connection to Philadelphia and the Phillies franchise, but it feels like half the city is up in arms about Utley moving on. 

This should not be an emotional decision. This should be about baseball, for all the players, but especially Utley. 

When he is on the field, there are few players better than Utley at any position. Utley will certainly go down in history as one of the best second basemen of his generation, but his inability to stay in the lineup is as much a part of his career narrative as his production when he’s there. 

Since 2010, Utley has played in 355 of a possible 570 regular-season games.

Over the last three-and-a-half seasons, Utley has been out of the lineup for 215 games, a number that equates to missing an entire season and a third of another.

Let’s face it: Utley has made it pretty easy to calculate his value over a replacement player when the Phillies have needed a replacement for him so damn often. (Note to SABR heads: It’s a joke. Sadly.)

There is no denying the value Utley has provided to the Phillies in his career and how he has been able to maintain that production despite missing so much time. From Todd Zolecki at MLB.com:

Utley, 34, is the heart and soul of the clubhouse, respected by everybody that has pulled on a uniform. He is in the final year of a seven-year, $85 million contract. He missed a month this season because of a strained right oblique and missed much of the previous two seasons because of knee injuries, but he is hitting .284 with 10 doubles, two triples, 11 home runs, 30 RBIs and an .866 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. If Utley had enough plate appearances to qualify, his OPS would be tied with Robinson Cano for the third best among second basemen in baseball. His .517 slugging percentage is his highest since a .535 mark in 2008.

Filed under the rule of “that’s baseball,” through 84 games, the Phillies were 25-30 with Utley in the lineup and 15-14 with him out, according to Baseball-Reference. As good as his numbers have been this season, they haven’t meant a whole lot in terms of victories. Of course, that hasn’t always been the case. 

In 2012, the Phillies were 43-38 in games Utley started and 38-43 in games he didn’t. The year prior, when the Phillies won a franchise-best 102 games, the team was 64-36 (.640) when Utley started and 38-24 (.612) in the other games. In 2010, they were 68-46 (.596) in his starts and 29-19 (.604) over the rest of the season. 

Maybe it all means nothing. 

Since reaching back-to-back World Series, winning one in 2008 and falling to the Yankees despite Utley’s best efforts to almost single-handedly secure another title—he had a ridiculous 1.448 OPS and 22 total bases in 25 plate appearances over the six games—the Phillies are 228-150 (.603) in regular-season games Utley starts and 120-100 in the others (.545).

(Note: The Phils are actually 230-156 (.596) in games Utley plays and 118-94 (.556) in games he does not appear, but factoring in pinch-hit appearances or late-inning replacements didn’t seem as practical.) 

The Phillies have been a much better team when Utley is in the lineup. There is no debating that, especially when you factor in the production of the players the Phillies have employed in his stead. 

Still, before the end of last season, which saw Roy Halladay shelved, Ryan Howard also out with injury and a rash of other roadblocks back to the playoffs, the Phillies had a winning percentage in the games without Utley that would have qualified them for the playoffs each of the previous two campaigns.

The Phillies have been better with Utley, but until last year, the team was always still good. 

Now, even with Utley, it’s hard to consider anything “good” about this Phillies team. Sure, there are some good parts—Cliff Lee, for example, is still good—but the sum of all the parts leaves something to be desired.

Why not, then, trade some of those good (read: valuable) parts before it’s too late? 

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is certainly entertaining offers for whatever parts he has worth value to potential playoff clubs. Hovering just outside the playoff race for most of the season, the Phillies have been at or below .500 for most of the year, needing to make up eight games on a field of four teams vying for the wild cards in the National League. Time is running out. 

If the Phillies want to make a run at the National League East, they have to make up 9.5 games on the Braves and 2.5 games on the Nationals. In other words, if the Phillies play .700 ball the rest of the season, they would finish with 95 wins, which means the Braves would still win the division by one game based on their current winning percentage on the season (.590). 

Remember, the Phillies are notoriously a second-half team. Still, even the run in 2010 to go from 41-37 to 97 wins saw a late summer surge of .667 baseball. Last season had the Phillies in last place at this time and their second-half run got them to 81-81, but even that run, while nine games over .500, was just a .556 winning percentage 

This Phillies team is not capable of playing .700 baseball the rest of the way, or even .600 baseball the rest of the way, which probably still wouldn’t be good enough to pass the teams in line for the two wild-card positions.

This team is as mediocre as its record states, which is why it makes sense to dump the players who might bring back something in return. Utley may have value, even in a low-level prospect, which will give the team more in return than him playing out the string at second base for as many more games as his body can tolerate this season.

The Phillies have made a lot of bad moves under Amaro, but few would be as ridiculous as re-signing Utley to be the starting second baseman next year. Utley will surely be seeking a multi-year deal, and the idea of the Phillies entertaining the notion of paying Utley tens of millions of dollars over multiple seasons, when he can’t even make it through a full season in his early 30s, is a recipe for disaster.

As important as Utley has been to the city, it’s time to let him go in hopes that he still has enough value to bring something back in return.

Hell, even if he doesn’t, it might make sense to give him a chance to win another ring with a contender this season as a thank you for years of service. If, you know, you’re into that kind of sentimental stuff. 

The Utley that was a borderline Hall of Famer isn’t coming back, even if his numbers—when healthy—suggest he could. The Phillies can’t afford to bring him back next year as a player they would need to rely on to play every day. He isn’t that guy anymore. They aren’t that team anymore.

Sentiment has no place in the business side of baseball, which is a concept the Phillies front office failed to understand when handing out post-World Series contracts the last five years. The team needs to rebuild, and if Howard’s contract precludes them from trading him, they should look to get as much value from the other players around him as possible. 

Sure, it will be strange to see a middle infield without Utley or Rollins, or someone other than Carlos Ruiz behind the plate every day, but those are the realities of the game when a roster gets too old and injured to stay competitive. Letting those players go won’t be easy, but the time to deal with that reality has drawn near.

Fans can debate who is to blame for the Phillies’ downfall—Howard’s contract or Utley’s knees or Rollins’ lack of hustle or Ruiz’s suspension or Halladay’s shoulder or a shoddy bullpen or Amaro‘s other wheeling and dealing or Charlie Manuel’s old-school managing—but the fact remains that the team that brought the city its first title in a generation is no longer there.

Some of the same parts may still be hanging around, but the time to officially move on looks to have resoundingly arrived. That means Utley too.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: Blame for the Woes Must Be Placed on Ruben Amaro Jr.

In recent days, much has been ballyhooed about the Philadelphia Phillies standing in the National League East division. At five games below .500 and nine-and-a-half games from the division leading Atlanta Braves, fans are clamoring for the Phillies to sell their most esteemed pieces in order to gain in the future with highly regarded prospects.

However, the Phillies are right where they were expected to be. Only those with blinders on would have expected more. With Ruben Amaro Jr. at the helm of arranging this roster, only more of the same can be expected so long as he’s the general manager.

For instance, the starting rotation leads Major League Baseball with 55 quality starts (QS). For comparison’s sake, the Washington Nationals have 46 QS while the Pittsburgh Pirates have tallied 38 QS. 

The Earned Run Average (ERA) of the starting pitchers for Philadelphia is 4.03. Compared to the rest of MLB, this is average. However, the Phillies’ starters Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.75 is near the top in MLB. According to FanGraphs, FIP “measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average.”

FIP suggests we should take a look at the Revised Zone Rating (RZR) which measures “the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out.” A strong indicator of defensive performance beyond the pitching, RZR is indicative of the woes that can plague a good pitching staff backed by inadequate defense in the field.

Philadelphia ranks 24th in MLB in RZR (.826). Aside from the New York Yankees (ranked 25th), the other five teams worse in this category sit with sub-.500 win-loss records. They include the Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers.

Defense hasn’t been the only liability for the Phillies.

The relievers bode a 4.60 ERA, slotted in as the second worst in all of MLB. Unlike the Phillies starting rotation though, this high ERA cannot be hitched to poor defense. After all, the bullpen’s FIP is third worst in baseball at 4.39. They also have the third worst Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at -0.8.

The Phillies hitting has been abysmal as well. Despite a power surge from Domonic Brown, the lineup ranks 22nd in WAR (7.2). Comparatively speaking, the Chicago Cubs (8.8), Kansas City Royals (9.5) and San Diego Padres (13.0) all fare better in this metric.

The team’s batting average of .255 is near the league median and their strikeout rate is average. However, the Phillies sluggers have showed little patience at the plate, boasting one of the league’s worst walk rates (6.9 percent).

Simply put, the current makeup of the roster is not working out. Chase Utley, Michael Young and Carlos Ruiz are all set to be free agents following the season. It would make sense for Amaro Jr. to deal these players. Since they are not helping place the Phillies in serious contention, why not give the likes of Cesar Hernandez, Cody Asche and Tommy Joseph extended looks as we crawl through the summer?

On top of that, it would behoove the Phillies to unload the contract of closer Jonathan Papelbon. The 32-year-old is set to earn $13 million per annum through 2015 with a vesting option for 2016. At the same time, Pirates closer Jason Grilli will earn $2.5 million this year and $4 million next. Yes, the same Grilli that Amaro Jr. cut in 2011 has gone on to become one of the best closers in baseball.

For now, it would seem that any team willing to take Papelbon off of the Phillies would be reluctant to do so unless the Phils are willing to eat some of the salary owed to the closer. This might be a significant hurdler to overcome.

In regard to ace Cliff Lee, it would be foolish to deal him now. Despite the $25 million per year he will be owed through 2015 (with a club option for 2016), Lee is more valuable to the Phillies than he would be should they attain prospects via trade. 

Why?

In reality, the Phillies are still not stuck between a rock and a hard place. Sure, they have no hope of winning the World Series in 2013 but a looming television deal could increase their potential to bring in better talent in the very near future.

The trust factor is nonexistent with general manager Amaro Jr., though. Remember, he was the same GM that thought bringing Jim Thome into a NL ballpark was a good idea (skipper Charlie Manuel signed off on that, too).

Amaro Jr. is also the one who orchestrated the $50 million contract for Papelbon. In regard to this, the average 2013 salary of the top eight closers (aside from Mariano Rivera) in terms of saves is $3.98 million. The list includes Grilli, Craig Kimbrel, Edward Mujica, Ernesto Frieri and Addison Reed.

Quite frankly, paying a reliever not named Mo Rivera is asinine since the Grillis and Mujicas of the baseball world continue to prove over and over again inflated valuation of the closer role is nonsensical.

Speaking of sense, the only way to make any of the Phillies 2013 campaign is to point the finger at Amaro Jr. He engineered the roster his way and it has simply not worked. As many have been saying since last season, it is time to change course–not only with the roster but with the management as well.

Statistics and metrics sourced from Fangraphs.

Salary information sourced from SpoTrac.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

How the Pittsburgh Pirates Overtook the Phillies as PA’s Baseball Power

Tuesday evening’s battle of the Keystone State in Pittsburgh will pit one of the best teams in the National League against an under-.500 group with questions around the diamond and in the front office.

For years, making the distinction between the franchises described above was remarkably simple, but the tide has shifted in Pennsylvania. In both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the times have changed.

Heading into this week’s series, the Pittsburgh Pirates are pacing the National League, recently becoming the first team to reach 50 wins. Not only is the team on pace to blaze past the .500 mark for the first time in over two decades, but Clint Hurdle’s group is on pace to win 100 games.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ updated playoff odds, the Pirates have a 94.2 percent chance of playing postseason baseball this October:

Meanwhile, things in Philadelphia are a mess. Speculation around the future of Charlie Manuel has encircled the clubhouse, Ruben Amaro Jr. refuses to acknowledge the need to rebuild, and the roster looks inept and unable to compete for much beyond another 81-81 finish.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ updated playoff odds, the Phillies have a 2.1 percent chance of playing postseason baseball this October.

Remarkably, these roles were reversed recently. From 2007-2011, the Phillies were the class of the National League, winning at least 89 games in every season, reeling off five consecutive NL East titles, three trips to the National League Championship Series, two World Series appearances and, of course, a world championship in 2008.

On the opposite side of the state and baseball spectrum were the Pirates. Baseball’s laughingstock hasn’t produced a winning club since Barry Bonds suited up and played left field for the Bucs.

Despite promising starts in 2011 and 2012, the club fizzled in the second half, failing once again to crack the 81-win mark.

While it’s easy to believe that 2013 has been the season where baseball in Pennsylvania was turned upside down, the seeds for the rise of the Pirates and the fall of the Phillies have been in place for years.

Despite playing awful baseball against most of the league, Pittsburgh has actually been able to go toe-to-toe with the big, bad Phillies for years. Since 2007, Philadelphia has won just 21 of the 40 contests with their cross-state rival. That record has dropped to 10-13 since 2010.

Although the Phillies are down now, they haven’t been bad for a long time. Last season, despite failing to live up to expectations, they finished at .500. In 2011, the team set a franchise record for wins with 102 in the regular season. But the tipping point in the Pennsylvania rivalry may have occurred that summer, in spite of the 30 victories that separated the teams in the NL standings.

Over the last three seasons, the respective win totals for each franchise has resembled stocks plummeting and rising simultaneously.

Philadelphia: 102, 81, 39
Pittsburgh: 72, 79, 51

Despite the gigantic discrepancy in 2011 victories, it’s not crazy to think that the Pirates’ three-year win total will match or exceed Philadelphia’s by the end of this season.

The summer of 2011 may feel like ages ago for these respective fans, but it was just two years ago that the tides shifted.

Baseball fans may not have read the writing on the wall, but the Phillies’ window for winning another title was slamming shut. The image of Ryan Howard writhing in pain after rupturing his Achilles tendon was the straw that broke the back of Philadelphia’s dominance.

Despite 102 wins, signs of decline in Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Roy Oswalt and the intense workload for Roy Halladay created a perfect storm that would rob the Phillies of their ability heading into 2012.

Meanwhile, the 2011 Pirates endured a disastrous August and September in the wake of a blown call at home plate during an epic late-July affair in Atlanta.

As Pittsburgh fell from first place to 72-90, the baseball world forgot about the Pirates once again when the calender turned to autumn. But that masked the bigger point in Pittsburgh: In Clint Hurdle’s first year at the helm, in which he justly received NL Manager of the Year votes, the team improved by 15 wins from 2010.

The emergence of Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez’s first big league cup of coffee, the drafting of Gerrit Cole with the top overall pick, Philadelphia’s failure to recognize what it had with Jason Grilli in Triple-A and and Hurdle’s attitude engulfed the franchise, setting the team up for another run at .500 in 2012 and for its leap here in 2013.

It’s likely that the Phillies aren’t this bad and the Pirates aren’t this good, but heading into this week’s series in Pittsburgh, one thing is clear for baseball fans in the state of Pennsylvania: The team to watch resides on the west side of the state.

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Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

5 Bold Predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies’ 2nd Half of the Season

Five predictions likely to come true for this Phillies team would be pretty easy to make. 

According to online betting site Bovada (which we purposely do not link to), the Phillies’ odds to win the World Series have plummeted from the preseason level of 16-1 to 66-1.

To put that in perspective, Bovada considers the following underwhelming teams more likely than the Phillies to win it all: the San Diego Padres, the Colorado Rockies and the Kansas City Royals.

With the writing so clearly scrawled on so many walls, the Phillies are almost certainly going to move some veterans at the trade deadline and bring some kids up for the last couple months of the season.

Those are not bold predictions.

Personally, predictions are not my favorite assignment anyway, since if predictions were a strength for me my living could just come from gambling instead of, you know, work.

As such, the following predictions are, admittedly, quite unlikely to happen as written.

But there is just enough truth in each of them to make them viable, at least for the purposes of discussion.

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Top Candidates to Replace Charlie Manuel If the Phillies Fire Him

Sooner than later, the Charlie Manuel era will end in Philadelphia.

With a contract that expires after the season, a mediocre roster, expectations out of whack in a city clinging to former greatness and the specter of a fire sale between now and July 31, the last few months of the 2013 Phillies season may be ugly.

Of course, that would be the exception for this group in Philadelphia considering how well the team has played in the second half of seasons under Manuel.

Yet, it’s time to accept the exception to the rule coming to fruition for a team that is heading backwards fast.

When Ruben Amaro and the ownership group in Philadelphia decide to move in a different direction, one candidate seems to stand out above the rest, but the interviews and process will be riveting for a franchise trying to replace the most successful manager in their history.

Here are the top candidates for the job to replace Charlie Manuel as the next manager of the Philadelphia Phillies.

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