5 Available Players Still Within Reach of the Philadelphia Phillies

Even though baseball’s 2013 winter meetings may be nearing their conclusion, there’s still time for both players and teams to strike deals with one another. Many of the offseason’s top free agents, including Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann, are now off the table, but plenty of other options remain.

The starting pitching market is especially abundant for this time of year, and most of the blame goes to Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka is highly regarded by many as the top (potentially) available starter this offseason, but with new provisions soon to be enacted regarding Nippon Professional Baseball’s posting system, Tanaka‘s team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles, may be hesitant to post their ace.

The new posting rules allow for maximum posting bids of $20 million, which is a far cry from the $51.7 million the Texas Rangers paid the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2011 to negotiate with ace Yu Darvish.

Consequently, Tanaka‘s posting status is up in the air, but whether or not he is posted, the starting pitching market should be taking shape sooner rather than later. Players and teams can only wait so long before standstill talks gain steam. That time lurks in the near future.

For the Philadelphia Phillies, this starting pitching bounty bodes well for them. Considering that the only locks for the rotation are Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, another veteran starting pitcher is needed behind the other two, especially if one of the “silly” rumors, according to general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. (via the Philadelphia Daily News), regarding their trade availability actually materializes.

Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reported that the Phillies are seeking rotation and bullpen help, and while trades are possible, free agency is the likely route. With that in mind, here are five candidates still available on the open market within the Phillies’ reach—and resources.

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Best Potential Trade Packages and Landing Spots for Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels

The Philadelphia Phillies rebuild, it would appear, is on.

Following a lengthy stretch of success during which they won five straight National League East division crowns and the 2008 World Series title, the Phillies have stumbled the past two seasons, falling to .500 in 2012 and 73-89 last year—their worst mark since 2000.

With many of their key core players from that period now well into their 30s, like Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, or dealing with injury issues, like Ryan Howard, the Phillies are a franchise that, in the past year, has gone from teetering on the brink of needing a rebuild to becoming unquestionably desperate for one.

And so general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is looking to cash in his trade chips.

Just a few days after reminding everyone that highly paid closer Jonathan Papelbon remains available, the Phillies have made it known that they they are also ready and willing to talk about trading one—or both—of their ace left-handers, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.

There’s reason to wonder whether this approach will stick, though, seeing as how Amaro told Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, “Our goal is to add, not to subtract.” There’s also the fact that Philadelphia re-signed catcher Carlos Ruiz and brought in outfielder Marlon Byrd already this offseason.

At the same time, though, there are reports that indicate even young outfielder Domonic Brown might be on the block, as Zolecki noted. While Papelbon doesn’t have much trade value at all—$26 million guaranteed through 2015 for a one-inning pitcher will do that—Lee and Hamels fall on the other end of the spectrum.

As two legitimate No. 1 starters who have continued to perform at or near that level for the past several seasons, either of the two southpaws should be able to net Philadelphia the kind of return the team needs. Should Amaro Jr. decide, once and for all, to go that route.

Speaking of needs, the Phillies could use a few things.

Like an impact infielder at either shortstop or third base, where Rollins is getting old and 2013 rookie Cody Asche remains unproven.

Or an upgrade in the outfield, particularly in center, where Ben Revere is more of a fringy starter who could fit better as a backup.

Or bullpen arms with upside to help address the late innings, whether Papelbon stays around as the closer or not.

Or rotation depth, as Lee, Hamels and righty Kyle Kendrick are the only locks for the 2014 five-man at the moment.

Most of all, though, Philadelphia needs youth, depth and cheaper contracts, especially since so much money is tied up in Howard, Papelbon, Lee and Hamels, among others.

That’s one of the factors to consider in valuing Lee and Hamels on the trade market. For Lee, we’re talking about a 35-year-old who is guaranteed $62.5 million through 2015, along with a $27.5 million club option for 2016. Hamels, meanwhile, is a soon-to-be 30-year-old with at least $118.5 million coming his way through 2018, plus a $20 million club option for 2019. In other words, any inquiring team likely will be a contender that can fit an extra $22-25 million into its budget for the next few years.

While those prices might seem a bit overwhelming, both Lee and Hamels still would be highly sought after given their sustained production and durability. For teams who have been honing in on other top starters who are rumored trade targets, like David Price, Chris Sale and Jeff Samardzija, as well as free agents like Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana and Matt Garza, the chance to land a Lee or a Hamels adds a couple more names to a growing list of appealing arms.

Here, then, is a rundown of the teams that could match up well with the Phillies in a trade for one of their two front-liners.

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Roy Halladay’s Good Overwhelmed His Bad and Ugly as a Philadelphia Phillie

As ESPN reported on December 9, Roy Halladay retired as a Toronto Blue Jay, but for most Phillies fans and many baseball fans, the truly indelible masterpieces he created came in Phillies’ colors.

Of course, so did some of his most disappointing moments in professional baseball.

On balance, though, Halladay’s highest highs will be treasured long after the ugly images of his lowest Phillies lows are airbrushed out of memory.

Some Phillies fans will point to Halladay’s May 29, 2010, perfect game against the Florida Marlins as the apex of his Phillies career. After all, how can you do better than 27 up, 27 down?

That the perfect game came during Halladay’s Cy Young 2010 season only adds to its luster.

But perfect games, rare as they are, happen far more often than what Halladay did in the 2010 postseason.

On October 6, 2010, Halladay threw a no-hitter in Game One of the Phillies’ National League Division Series against the Cincinnati Reds, the second playoff no-hitter in baseball history.

As recounted by Todd Zolecki in his game story for MLB.com, the no-no dented the record books on numerous levels:

Halladay is just the fifth pitcher to throw two no-hitters in the same season, but the first to throw one in his first postseason start. Halladay is also the first pitcher to throw a no-hitter and a perfect game in the same season.

The moment Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz threw Brandon Phillips out to complete the feat, Phillies fans surely thought it could never get better.

They were right.

As set forth by Michael Baumann of Grantland, “That moment was the high point. Halladay split a pair of decisions with Tim Lincecum in the NLCS the next week, then a year later, allowed the first batter he faced to score in the deciding game of the NLDS against St. Louis.”

Baumann‘s coda on that paragraph—”We didn’t know it at the time, but Halladay would never be Halladay again”—stings the Phillies fan in both its accuracy and finality.

After all the good, Phillies fans probably had to expect and accept some bad and even some ugly, which is more or less all Halladay had to give in 2013.

It was bad when Halladay threw a pitch behind reserve Washington Nationals outfielder Tyler Moore in an early 2013 spring training game.

It was ugly when Halladay gave up nine earned runs after getting only seven outs against an offensively challenged Miami Marlins lineup.

And little could be uglier than the realization that the Phillies paid Halladay $20 million in 2013 to go 4-5 with an earned run average just under seven in 13 starts.

Then again, maybe Halladay’s inability to deliver value on the last year of his contract was a really well-disguised blessing because, ultimately, Roy Halladay did something harder than throwing a perfect game or a postseason no-hitter: He walked away before he was told to go home.

As a result, Phillies fans (and Blue Jays fans too) will be spared the sort of disappointment that denial-afflicted greats like Steve Carlton inflicted on their legacies by hanging on too long.

“To go out there and know it’s not going to feel good and I wasn’t going to do it the way I wanted was frustrating,” Halladay said at his retirement press conference. “I tried to give everything I can but something was holding me back. I felt I couldn’t give them what I wanted to.”

Even in admitting the end, then, Halladay approached the perfection for which he was known.

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Will the Philadelphia Phillies’ Disorganized Offseason Plan Doom Them?

If the Philadelphia Phillies, led by general manager Ruben Amaro, have a legitimate plan of attack this offseason, it’s time to explain it to a puzzled group of baseball insiders.

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Phillies are willing to chat about their aces, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, in trade talks. On Monday, Domonic Brown, the franchise’s only young building block, was floated in rumors at the winter meetings. Jonathan Papelbon, an overpaid closer on a 73-win team, is also rumored to be available, per CSN Philly.

On the surface, this all makes sense. In reality, the Phillies should be in full-scale rebuilding mode. After winning 102 games in 2011, the franchise has fallen on hard times. Over the past two seasons, the Phillies have lost 81 and 89 games, respectively, while becoming one of the least watchable products in baseball.

If Amaro, with the blessing of ownership, scaled back the payroll, traded stars like Hamels and Lee for a group of future impact players and scoured the market for ways to upgrade from Brown, few intelligent fans would be upset.

Instead, the team has sent dangerously mixed signals.  

Philadelphia’s offseason began with additions, not subtractions. By setting the outfield market with a two-year, $16 million deal for 36-year-old Marlon Byrd, the Phillies signaled a need for power in their lineup and protection for Ryan Howard. By re-signing veteran catcher Carlos Ruiz, the team refused to part with a leader, despite a poor 2013, because of a lack of major league-ready catching in the farm system.

On the surface, both deals were debatable, but made sense through the prism of trying to compete for a postseason spot in 2014. With a rotation led by Lee and Hamels, the Phillies, assuming healthy seasons from the core of Chase Utley, Brown and Howard, had a chance to compete on the outskirts of the National League wild-card picture.

As the winter meetings progress, the Phillies need to commit to a direction. If they don’t, the franchise will be left among competing, rebuilding and looking for both short- and long-term answers. As of now, the team is wading between both realms, unable to choose a direction.

The best general managers can juggle multiple scenarios, choose the right path and ultimately take their franchise in a direction that leads to long-term success. In July, Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Bob Ford wrote a piece about Amaro‘s trade-deadline plight, but the same words can be reshaped for the present moment. Per Ford’s column:

“Amaro will have to juggle all those considerations two weeks from now, whether the team perks up in the interim or whether it doesn’t.” 

Amazingly, due to a hot streak near the All-Star break, the Philadelphia media was contemplating Amaro‘s buy-or-sell strategy at the trade deadline. After the team limped to a 73-89 finish, including the removal of Charlie Manuel from the dugout, such thinking seems ridiculous in retrospect. Yet, it was there then the way it is now. 

To be fair, there’s a chance, albeit small, that Amaro has a grand plan.

If he can shed payroll by trading Papelbon or Lee, there’s a possibility that the money could be reinvested in a major bat like Shin-Soo Choo and arm like Masahiro Tanaka. 

If the embattled general manager can flip Brown or Hamels for major prospects, the team could finally engage the Miami Marlins in legitimate trade conversation for star slugger Giancarlo Stanton. 

Juggling multiple scenarios in December won’t derail success in May and June, but there has to be a clear, united vision in the front office. Right now, it doesn’t feel that way in Philadelphia. If these same rumors centered around Dave Dombrowski in Detroit or Brian Cashman in New York, the benefit of the doubt would be awarded. 

Amaro, through his own fault, doesn’t garner that respect in the game. During his tenure, he’s made mistake after mistake. From handing Howard a five-year, $125 million deal two years before he hit free agency, to signing a closer to a $52 million deal, to trading Lee for nonimpact prospects, Amaro hasn’t proven worthy of faith.

Right now, with Byrd and Ruiz on board, Papelbon poised to close games, Lee and Hamels at the top of the rotation and Brown ready to build upon a breakout 2013, the Phillies are a few moves from fielding a competitive team. While they’ll likely be closer to .500 than a postseason berth, relevance could return to Citizens Bank Park next summer.

Moving any of their veteran pieces, especially stars like Lee and Hamels, would change that plan, possibly for the better. It would, however, turn 2014 into a rebuilding season and make the contracts handed out to Byrd and Ruiz look ridiculous to everyone in baseball.

In the National League East, every team outside of Philadelphia seems to have a plan. Washington is attempting to win big now, Atlanta has a core of proven youth, New York is inching closer toward contention and Miami is attempting to cultivate a team of inexpensive future stars.

Only one remains a mystery. Until the Phillies show their hand, skepticism will remain. Juggling multiple scenarios and possibilities remains fine for now, but the clock is ticking toward Opening Day and another season with an aging, veteran roster and shallow talent base in the farm system.

Amaro may be poised to fix his past mistakes, but it’s becoming harder and harder to imagine a winning team emerging from his disorganized offseason plan.

Do you have faith in Ruben Amaro?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Would Cliff Lee-Matt Kemp Trade Make Sense?

Now that baseball is in the thick of the winter meetings, rumors and potential signings and trades will be heard out the wazoo. Plenty will be going around throughout the next two days or so, and Bleacher Report’s Adam Wells has done a fantastic job of keeping track of them so far.

Among the rumors involving the Philadelphia Phillies are that closer Jonathan Papelbon is being shopped, as is young outfielder Domonic Brown. These came to light thanks to tweets from FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal and Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan, respectively.

However, the most intriguing Phillies rumor emerged on Tuesday when ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted the following concerning the Phillies’ pitching staff:

 

The Phillies have indicated to other teams they are ready and willing to talk about Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in trades.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 10, 2013

Considering that the Phillies are still seemingly immersed in a “win-now” mode, it’s strange that they’re contemplating trading the two most reliable cogs of the team, let alone the rotation. What makes this even weirder is that it completely contradicts the signings of Marlon Byrd and Carlos Ruiz. Then again, so does the notion that Domonic Brown could be dealt. So what is the Phillies’ strategy, exactly?

It’s becoming more and more apparent that the Phillies may not have one. But they’re not wrong for listening to potential deals. It’s simply due diligence, though ESPN’s Jayson Stark provided an interesting update on the Lee/Hamels front not too long after Olney‘s tweet: 

Team that talked to #Phillies reports only way they’d trade Lee/Hamels is in “win-win” scenario. Take none of $. Get huge return. Unlikely

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 10, 2013

The prospects of a deal under those circumstances are slim to none. It’s pretty clear that that’s the case. But have the Phillies considered a deal in which established major leaguers, not minor league prospects, are the return?

That possibility lingers in only a few instances. It would involve two high-priced stars being swapped for one another, with each filling holes for the two teams involved. That’s not so easy to find.

However, one instance in which this is a possibility is with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers, who have been connected to Tampa Bay Rays ace David Price, per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, are hesitant to trade away top prospects in their barren farm system to get him. This tidbit comes from Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

Where does that leave the Dodgers? It means that they’re still likely interested in acquiring an ace starter, though they would prefer to give up pieces on the major league team as opposed to within the minors. This is where they could match up in a trade with the Phillies.

Hernandez of the L.A. Times provides even more information, this time coming from Kemp’s agent, Dave Stewart. Stewart believes that Kemp is likely to be traded, even with six years and $130 million remaining on Kemp’s extension signed before the 2012 season.

That’s a hefty price to pay for Kemp, who’s been meddled with injury woes since signing the deal. Such a drawback may not appeal to the Phillies. But the ability to upgrade at a position of need while dealing away another large contract? It’s at least thought-provoking.

The Dodgers want Price, a left-handed ace with two years of team control left. Is Cliff Lee not the same caliber of a pitcher, with two guaranteed years left on his deal and is a southpaw ace?

There is a difference, and that’s cost. Price is still arbitration-eligible, so his salaries will spike from year to year, yet still remain below those of Lee. Lee has two years and $62.5 million guaranteed on his contract, though he could earn $15 million more if his 2016 vesting option kicks in.

The perk to Lee, though, is knowing his cost and knowing that he’s got that potential third year of control left. That may be appealing to the Dodgers if they seek longer commitment than two years, since Price will more likely than not pursue free agency as one of the top starters on the market after the 2015 season.

Kemp appeals to Philadelphia because he’s still a top-flight player when he’s healthy. He’s right-handed and has power, which would be even greater at Citizens Bank Park. His defense is extraordinary. And he’s flashed speed on the basepaths to the point that he nearly achieved a 40-40 season in 2011.

But the kicker? Kemp’s only 29 years old. Lee is 35. For a Phillies team looking to get younger, it doesn’t get any better than this.

The good news with Kemp’s deal as well is that it’s not back-loaded like Lee’s. According to Cot’s, Kemp makes a consistent $21.5 million for each of the last four years of his deal, whereas Lee makes $25 million in 2014 and 2015, with the potential to make $27.5 million as a 37-year-old in 2016.

Per season, Kemp’s average annual value would actually be $4 million less on the Phillies’ payroll than Lee’s, providing some slight wiggle room under the luxury tax. The Phillies wouldn’t have to eat any of Lee’s contract, which is what they’re looking for in any deal involving him. And they’d be receiving an All-Star center fielder who’s a game-changer when on the field.

This trade would have some ramifications on the rest of the Phillies’ outfield, of course. It would mean that Ben Revere would likely be a fourth outfielder, a role which doesn’t utilize his speed enough. In that regard, it isn’t the most practical trade, unless Revere was shipped off with Lee. Given that the Dodgers have an outfield conundrum as well, though, that’s unlikely to happen.

Such matters can be resolved later, though. In many ways, a Lee-Kemp swap makes a ton of sense. But will it happen? Probably not, unless Phillies and Dodgers general managers Ruben Amaro Jr. and Ned Colletti get creative. But given that Prince Fielder and Ian Kinsler were traded for one another this offseason, nothing can be ruled out.

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Philadelphia Phillies: A Closer Look at Domonic Brown’s Numbers Last Year

Much is being made of the Philadelphia Phillies‘ desire to trade left fielder Domonic Brown, as reported by Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan. A line in the sand has been drawn, and there are those who feel as if Brown is the keystone for the Phillies’ future while others are screaming sell, sell, sell!

Independent of where one stands on this issue, the fact remains that Brown burst out of a disappointing start to his career to have a breakout, All-Star season in 2013. In 540 at-bats, Brown smashed 27 home runs and drove in 83 runs.

His dinger tally put him alongside the likes of Mike Trout, Robinson Cano and Justin Upton for 17th most in Major League Baseball. He finished 34th in the big leagues, alongside Victor Martinez, with his 83 RBI. While Brown’s .272 AVG is nothing to write home about, it did place him at second among the Phillies’ qualifying hitters.

On the surface, Brown’s numbers don’t look all that bad. Sure, nearly half (12) of Brown’s HR total came in the month of May and they all landed in right field, but that doesn’t necessarily negate his production for the Phillies.

What does negate his production is when we look at what he did (or didn’t do) beyond the box score.

Among qualifying left fielders, Brown finished 2013 with the third-worst Wins Above Replacement (WAR). His 1.6 WAR ranked ahead of only Eric Young and Chris Carter. It compared to that of Daniel Nava (1.8) and Michael Brantley (1.6).

Brown’s on-base percentage (OBP) ranked 11th among the same group of qualifying left fielders. A walk rate of just 7.2 percent can be attributed to this. Walking in just about seven percent of his at-bats, Brown was slightly better than just four other qualifying left fielders. The worst was Starling Marte who tallied a 4.4 percent walk rate.

To make matters worse, Brown’s Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was second worst among this group. With a .287 BABIP, Brown finished 32 percentage points less than Chris Denorfia. 

In terms of Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), the Phillies’ lefty slugger finished with 123. Since the MLB average is 100, Brown finished slightly above average in this regard but 20 fewer than Matt Holliday and five fewer than Nava. Brown was closer to Marte in this measurement. 

Finally, Brown’s defensive WAR comes in at minus-15.9. Only four other left fielders come in worse, including Upton. However, there is a 26-defensive WAR difference between Brown and Gregor Blanco. Needless to say, Brown has his issues in left field.

The finer details to Brown’s production show us that he compares more favorably to the likes of Nava, Carter, Young and Marte than he does Holliday or Upton.

With such a small sample though, some outliers do emerge. Brown does look more favorably than Alex Gordon is some measurements. He even bests Yoenis Cespedes in others. However, it is his future projections that look more alarming. 

In just his first full season of MLB play, Brown looks to have already reached his ceiling. Projections for Brown’s traditional statistics look weaker than what he accumulated this past season. In addition to his decline, the descent elsewhere is likely the reason for the Phillies shopping him.

The upside to Brown is that he is under team control. This will make a deal for him look more likely but at the same time, the Phillies should not expect a top-of-the-farm pitching prospect in return. Brown’s statistical anomalies should be corrected as he gains more experience as an everyday piece of the lineup, be it in Philadelphia or elsewhere.

No one should fault Ruben Amaro Jr. for trying to sell Brown high. All indications point to Brown hitting his peak in 2013. If this is the case, the descent will be a long one for the 26-year-old. The fact that Brown may not be as good as Chris Young, a comparable player, was in 2007 through 2011 with the Arizona Diamondbacks is a telling sign.

Young has reached the point where he will likely be piggy-backing one-year deals throughout the next couple of years. What will Brown end up accomplishing production-wise? For whichever team he plays moving forward, production similar to Young’s aforementioned four-year span is the most desirable, even if it won’t necessarily be pretty.

The question for those looking at Brown as a possible piece in a trade with the Phillies is: What can Brown do for you?

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Best Potential Trade Packages, Scenarios and Landing Spots for Domonic Brown

To the surprise of few around baseball, the Philadelphia Phillies have become the biggest story of the first day of the winter meetings. Under the regime of Ruben Amaro, Philadelphia has routinely been a high-profile, headline-grabbing franchise during the winter months.

Today, the morning announcement of Roy Halladay’s retirement signaled the end of a potential Hall of Fame career. Now, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, Philadelphia is actively shopping outfielder Domonic Brown.

The hope, per Passan, is to receive back a controllable starting pitcher to slot behind Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in the rotation. Coincidentally, Halladay’s retirement opened up that slot on the pitching staff.  

Brown, 26, emerged in 2013 as a National League All-Star. By smashing 27 home runs and posting an OPS-plus 23 percent higher than league average, the corner outfielder has become a valuable commodity. Although he isn’t eligible for free agency until 2018, the Phillies are interested in using him as a trade chip due to his sky-high value stemming from last season.

If the team does move him, a substantial arm must be brought back in return. 

Here are the best potential trade packages, scenarios and landing spots for a Domonic Brown trade. 

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Carlos Beltran’s Deal Makes Nelson Cruz to Philadelphia Phillies Possible

Jonathan Papelbon and Kyle Kendrick are on the trading block for a reason, and that reason’s name is Nelson Cruz. The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to find wiggle room financially so they can land another high-priced free agent or two.

Early speculation has the Phillies in on Matt Garza, Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez. With up to $26 million already available to be spent, deals involving Papelbon ($13 million) and Kendrick (projected $7 million) could free up another $20 million so long as the Phillies don’t have to consume any portion of Papelbon’s remaining deal.

The notion of having close to $46 million available to spend while we head into Major League Baseball’s winter meetings is appetizing for Phillies nation. With none of the aforementioned trio of pitchers expected to land a deal worth more than $15 million annually, a $31 million void remains.

Let’s suppose the Phillies do end up dealing Papelbon while swallowing $5 million of his annual salary. This would leave the Phillies with $26 million remaining before they encroach upon the luxury tax (after signing one of Garza, Santana or Jimenez, of course).

One major hypothetical question remains. Do the Phillies pursue Nelson Cruz?

Cruz’s asking price rests at $25 million per season. He is looking for a four-year deal. Lofty expectations aside, Cruz is also backed into a corner because he rejected a qualifying offer. This means that nearly two-thirds of MLB‘s organizations will be reluctant to sign Cruz to any deal because they would then lose their first-round selection in the 2014 MLB Draft.

One team that wouldn’t lose a pick is the Phillies.

Drafting seventh overall in next year’s draft, the Phillies can’t lose their first round pick by signing someone who was extended a qualifying offer because it is protected. This gives them a relative advantage over other organizations.

First, the Phillies have the capital to splurge on a riskier free agent like Cruz. Second, the Phillies don’t have to worry about losing their pick in next year’s draft. Finally, the Phillies are an organization that matches well with Cruz’s skill set.

Thanks to declining power from Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, the Phillies are in need of some extra muscle at the plate. They signed Marlon Byrd to a two-year deal worth $16 million (plus a third-year option) but Byrd can’t reasonably be expected to repeat his numbers from last year. 

Domonic Brown emerged as a power threat at the plate, but he is a left-handed hitter. As every fan knows, the Phillies need some might from the right side of the plate. 

With Carlos Beltran inking a deal with the New York Yankees for $15 million annually, one has to suspect that Cruz’s asking price will come down as we tread further into the winter. No organization can logically sign Cruz for $10 million more per season than Beltran received, even if Cruz will be three years younger than Beltran.

While Beltran’s deal makes Cruz more signable, many parts must move accordingly for it to work. With the organization tendering John Mayberry, the Phillies will have outfielders tripping over themselves.

Brown, Byrd, Ben Revere and Mayberry plus the addition of Cruz makes for a crowded outfield. Now let’s not fool ourselves, we know what the pecking order would be. 

Would the Phillies be willing to swallow their pride and realize the acquisition of Revere last winter was a mistake and move him? A lefty with no power in a lineup loaded with power deficient lefties makes no sense. Coming off of an injury makes Revere nearly untradeable though.

Domonic Brown simply cannot be traded. Despite some suggesting his 2013 emergence was a fluke, at 26-years-old, Brown is the only source of power the Phillies have under the age of 30, even if his production slows down moving forward.

The Phillies could look at moving Revere into a bench role and trading Mayberry for whatever they can get. This could open right field for Cruz. This is contingent on the Phillies trusting Byrd in center field. Byrd hasn’t started more than 100 games in center since 2011 with the Chicago Cubs though.

Despite sounding like such, Cruz-to-Philadelphia is not blind speculation. The Phillies have been linked to Cruz for some time. The odds of landing him remain pretty slim though. Too many pieces have to be moved in order for a Cruz deal to work.

However, Beltran’s deal does make Cruz’s $25 million asking price look salty. If one thing is certain, it is that Cruz’s asking price will come down somewhat. One thing that is not certain is whether or not the Phillies will dish out the juice to get him.

If the Phillies do sign Cruz, things will have to already have occurred or major changes will loom. First, Papelbon and/or Kendrick will have to have been dealt. Second, the Phillies would have moved or are planning to move Brown, Revere or Mayberry. Finally, the front office has to realize its lack of right-handed hitting power will not suffice in the near-term.

Switch-hitting Rollins, Byrd and Carlos Ruiz are the only projected 2014 starters who hit from the right side of the plate. Howard, Brown, Utley, Revere and Cody Asche all stand in the left batter’s box. Something has to change. One change that could boost the Phillies offense would be the signing of Cruz.

As friendly as his asking price might be in the aftermath of the Beltran-to-New York deal, don’t expect it to happen. There are too many moving parts involved.

 

 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Possible Landing Destinations for Jonathan Papelbon

A pivotal change could be looming for the Philadelphia Phillies and for once, it isn’t all bad.

Ken Rosenthal reported earlier that the Phillies are trying to trade closer Jonathan Papelbon in order to get out from under his contract. Handcuffed to a pricey contract that would make Nelson Rockefeller blush, Papelbon is owed $26 million over the next two seasons with a $13 million vesting option for 2016. 

Aside from the rich contract a team would inherit if they were to deal for Papelbon, things are made much more complicated due to the contentious atmosphere Papelbon is partly credited to bringing into the Phillies clubhouse.

So who would be interested in an overpriced reliever who is beyond his prime and known to bring a party pooper’s attitude into a clubhouse?

Realistically speaking, only time will tell.

It is true that many clubs are looking to bolster their bullpen but as we see with the Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves, teams have found a more cost-effective way to do so.

Therefore it is highly unlikely that Papelbon is dealt without the Phillies swallowing a major portion of his contract. 

Papelbon’s velocity has declined for two years in a row. At 33-years old, he is no longer the young pup with the ferocious competitiveness that we once saw in Fenway Park. From 2006-09, Papelbon averaged 38 saves per season on top of a 1.74 ERA and 10.73 K/9 rate.

From 2010 through 2012, Papelbon’s numbers slowly trended downward. In those three seasons, he averaged a 3.09 ERA to go along with 35 saves per year.

Things appeared to hit rock bottom in 2013. For the first time in his career as a closer, Papelbon failed to reach 30 saves. He managed to finish with a respectable 2.92 ERA, but a meager K/9 rate of 8.32. 2013 was the first year the righty failed to strike out at least nine batters per nine innings.

Needless to say, Papelbon is trending in the wrong direction.

On the other hand, the remainder of his contract is comparable to that of Joe Nathan—who recently signed with the Detroit Tigers.

So once again, who would take on the challenge of reforming Papelbon into one of Major League Baseball’s elite closers?

First and foremost, the New York Yankees should be considered as potential trade partners. For starters, the Yankees’ farm system is nothing to write home about, but they would be doing the Phillies a favor by helping take Papelbon off of their books.

Mariano Rivera has retired and the Yankees still are floundering with regard to who will handle the closing duties. While it appears that David Robertson is primed to take over the ninth inning for the Bronx Bombers, nothing is yet written in stone.

Robertson will turn 29 this April. He has just 8 career saves under his belt. While he has turned into one of baseball’s most prolific relievers, nobody can be certain he has the guts it takes to lock down the final three outs of a ballgame.

Another possible destination for Papelbon is the Texas Rangers. With Nathan moving on to Motown, the Rangers are stuck in a tough situation. They are likely to lean on oft-injured Neftali Feliz to be their closer, but Tanner Scheppers is another in-house possibility.

Making a deal work between the Rangers and Phillies would be a daunting task. The Rangers are likely unwilling to be left on the hook for all of Papelbon’s remaining contract. Therefore, the Phillies would have to be willing to eat a majority of the remaining deal and possibly the entirety of Papelbon’s vesting option should it kick in for 2016. Such a scenario doesn’t make much financial sense for Philadelphia.

Finally, the Seattle Mariners appear to be all hands on deck. After signing Robinson Cano and apparently being in the mix for David Price, the M’s could use a solid option to solidify their bullpen.

Seattle blew the seventh most saves in 2013 (23), so the bullpen is in flux. The conundrum plaguing Seattle is an attempt to become relevant for the first time since Lou Piniella was the manager.

Speculation aside, it is going to be difficult for the Phillies to move Papelbon. The deal he was signed to a couple of winters ago is decimating the Phillies’ potential to move forward. 

If anything, it is another indictment on the front office in Philadelphia. The contracts given to Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Mike Adams look bad, but so does Papelbon’s. It will take a lot to move Papelbon this offseason. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Pursuing a Top-of-the-Market Starting Pitcher Is Wrong

The Philadelphia Phillies are a wet paper bag getting punched with a fistful of scissors.

If the direction of the organization is to field a veteran team with aging souls while rebuilding a bankrupt farm system, then it would behoove the Phillies to continue their stride towards the basement of the National League. 

If that is not the intent of the front office, then by any means, spend more money on a starting pitcher who will not give lasting production equivalent to his price tag.

On the other hand, stinking up the joint for a few years while building something comparable to what the Phillies had between 2006-11 would be well worth it. It wouldn’t be cost efficient to splurge on another pitcher earning $10 to $16 million per annum, so long as the realistic ceiling of the Phillies is placing third in the division behind the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals.

However, Philadelphia Daily News staff writer David Murphy, one of the gems of Philadelphia’s media, is speculating that “indications” exist for the Phillies to consider “a bid” for Ervin Santana, Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez. 

While the Phillies have yet to splurge on any free agent, Murphy concludes the Phillies have “roughly $26 million to spend before reaching the $189 million luxury tax threshold.” Admittedly, Murphy isn’t so sure the Phillies want to tip-toe towards the threshold. 

With up to $26 million to spend, the Phillies could more than reasonably afford Santana, Garza or Jimenez. According to MLB Trade Rumors, contract expectations for the aforementioned three are as follows: 

• Ervin Santana: five years/$75 million ($15 million annually)
• Matt Garza: four years/$60 million ($15 million annually)
• Ubaldo Jimenez: four years/$52 million ($13 million annually)

On the surface, contracts such as those aren’t exactly appetizing for the Phillies. Signing one of the three would bring some level of excitement to the fanbase, but at the end of the day, either one of the trio could prove to be what we thought they were to begin with.

Santana is nearing his 31st birthday. He had three incredible seasons where he pitched lights out for the Los Angeles Angels. In 2006 the righty finished 16-8 with a 4.28 ERA and 4.29 FIP.

Two years later, Santana would re-emerge after a dismal 2007 to finish with a 16-7 record. This same year would be the pinnacle of Santana’s career as a strikeout artist. He finished with a K/9 of 8.79. 2008 is still the only instance in his nine-year career that Santana has finished with a K/9 above 7.57.

In 2010, Santana finished a 3.92 ERA and 17-10 record. 

Other than the three previously mentioned seasons, Santana has finished with an average win-loss record of 9-11 and 4.53 ERA. FIP, which is a stronger indicator of how well Santana has pitched due to its fielding and defensive variables, has been less friendlier than Santana’s ERA. For the right-handed pitcher’s career, he has a 4.36 FIP.

Matt Garza’s recent string of injuries seem to have no impact on his current market value. Garza has appeared in just 259 innings over the last two seasons. Historically speaking, Garza does provide stability on the mound, so long as he doesn’t reignite the health concerns that have plagued him lately. 

Since his first full season in the majors, Garza has yet to finish with a 4.00 ERA or greater. His career K/9 of 7.62 is down below his average K/9 over the last three seasons (8.38 K/9). The bottom line is that the righty continues to strike out batters at a higher-than-average clip. On the other hand, Garza has pitched more than 200 innings just twice in his MLB career (2009 and 2010). 

At 30 years of age, Garza is a high-risk, high-reward signing. The Phillies have the financial ability to deliver on a $15 million per year contract, but for a right-handed pitcher with durability issues, it may not be a wise decision.

Finally, Ubaldo Jimenez is coming off of a 2013 campaign that was reminiscent of his 2010 NL Cy Young-worthy season. Unfortunately, the track record is not there for the soon-to-be 30-year old righty. He is a year removed from a 9-17 campaign where he finished with a 5.40 ERA. His FIP for 2012 sat at 5.06 so bad luck really didn’t play a part in his atrocious season. The year prior, Jimenez was almost as bad, finishing with a 4.68 ERA though bad luck did play a role in his high ERA (3.67 ERA).

Still, Jimenez has sparkled just once since his 19-win season in 2010 with Colorado. His strikeout rate jumped to nearly 10 Ks per nine innings pitched in 2013, a career high. A cloud of excitement can’t pervade everybody when discussing whether or not Jimenez is back to the level of pitching he exercised in 2008 through 2010. 

Regardless, the overall outlook for the Phillies looks dim. Sure, signing one of the three pitchers mentioned would arouse more interest for an organization with declining attendance rates. Aside from less fans filling out Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies still remain a heavily backed financial player in Major League Baseball. The question is whether or not one of these arms can help put the Phillies over the top.

Speaking in the short term, there is no doubt that the Phillies would be better with Santana, Garza or Jimenez. For the long haul though, an eventual decline will lead to hindsight provocation. After all, it’s not like the Phillies are paying for an ace in either of these three. Rather, they are paying for a middle of the rotation guy, and the contract is likely to expand into his waning years as a pitcher.

It is a conundrum the Phillies face and must tackle head on. If they are poised to begin developing their farm system, it might behoove the Phillies to compete with what they have now and hope for some over-achievement on the field of play. If not, then the Phillies should pursue one of these three arms and hope they aren’t regretting the decision to do so three years from now.

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