Predicting How Each Philadelphia Phillies Arbitration Situation Will Play out

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ arbitration list was underwhelming even before Kyle Kendrick and John Mayberry Jr. reached terms with the club on one-year deals.

Kendrick will get $7.675 million, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post, after going 10-13 with a 4.70 earned run average on a 73-win team. Mayberry Jr. signed for $1,587,500 after 353 at-bats where he hit .227, according to Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News.

Both of these cases remind of the quote attributed to legendary (for the wrong reasons) baseball general manager Branch Rickey, who told Hall of Fame slugger Ralph Kiner that “we finished in last place with you; we can finish in last place without you.”

That the Phillies feel compelled to pay Kendrick and Mayberry Jr. these wages speaks audibly of the trouble the franchise is in.

Two arbitration candidates remain—center fielder Ben Revere and left-handed relief pitcher Antonio Bastardo. Both are hoping to become as overpaid as Kendrick and Mayberry Jr.

Per Baseball Prospectus, Revere made $515,000.00 in 2013 and is seeking a raise to $2.425 million in 2014. The Phillies contend Revere should make $1.4 million this season.

Looking over the MLB Trade Rumors 2013 Arbitration Tracker, one-dimensional speed players like Emilio Bonifacio ($2.6 million) and Everth Cabrera ($1.275 million) are not darlings of the arbitration process. After missing half a season with a foot injury, Revere is unlikely to get to $2 million for a 2014 salary. $1.8 million would be a reasonable result for Revere.

Bastardo settled for $1.4 million before arbitration last season. His additional year of service time has upped the range on his potential earnings between the $1.675 million the Phillies want to pay him and the $2.5 million he is asking for.

That Bastardo is asking for such a significant raise after missing 50 games due to suspension redefines hubris. Bastardo is another guy for whom $2 million is just too much. This feels like a $1.9 million outcome.

Ideally the Phillies would avoid arbitration with Revere by extending his contract and let the cards fall where they will with Bastardo, who is probably not in the team’s long-term plans.

Regardless, neither player will break Philadelphia’s bank in 2014. Not like its aging core will.

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