Cole Hamels’ Phillies Life as a Never-Ending Trade Rumor Should End Soon

Much like Cole Hamels, I could think of something really funny to say, but I’d rather just be truthful.

And the truth is that, as the long-running Hamels trade saga winds toward an end, it actually looks like it will end up working out well for almost everyone. A team will get a 31-year-old left-hander who can still be a difference-maker, Hamels will be liberated from the mess the Phillies have become and the Phillies will take a significant step toward fixing that mess.

Perhaps general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. will even get a touch of redemption, but that’s doubtful. Even if the Phillies end up making a great trade when they finally deal Hamels—to the Dodgers, Rangers, Yankees or some surprise entrant—the credit will probably go to Pat Gillick or even to Andy MacPhail, who appears close to succeeding Gillick as the most important baseball chief at Citizens Bank Park, as reported by Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Amaro had his chance last year, last winter or even in July 2012, when the Phillies signed Hamels to a $144 million, six-year contract extension instead of trading him.

At the time, it seemed like a reasonable decision by a franchise that had won the National League East five straight years. It looks different now, with the Phillies headed for a third straight losing season and quite possibly their first 100-loss season since 1961.

No one should blame Hamels for wanting to stay in 2012, and no one should blame him for wanting out now.

No one should blame him for trying hard not to say that he wants out. (He declined to speak to reporters Monday, and even after saying he’d be truthful rather than funny, he insisted he doesn’t think much about getting traded.) Now that the Phillies finally seem determined to move him, why would he want to risk saying anything that could hamper those efforts?

“It’s just kind of normal, going on 12 months,” he said, when someone asked about pitching while scouts watch and writers speculate. “I could think of something really funny to say,” Hamels said, “but I’d rather just be truthful with you. No, I don’t [think about it].”

He insists it doesn’t bother him, and maybe it shouldn’t. Hamels has some control over the process (his contract says he can be traded without his permission to only nine teams of his choosing), and when it’s over, it’s almost certain that he’ll be in a better place.

“I’ve got to pitch every five days,” he said. “I’ve just got to stay healthy.”

He said this after his first start in 10 days, after he was skipped once because of what he and the Phillies called a minor hamstring issue. It’s believable now that it really was minor, because it’s not in the Phillies’ interest to take any chances with the one asset that could jump-start the rebuilding process and because Hamels looked healthy in his start at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday.

The Phils took two big chances already by not trading Hamels last July or last winter. Pitchers’ arms are fragile, perhaps now more than ever. Performance can fade quickly too, depressing interest. But Hamels has avoided any big health issues and is pitching as well as he ever has.

His fastball velocity is actually higher now than it was in his three All-Star seasons (he hit 95 mph and averaged 93.5 on Wednesday, according to BrooksBaseball.net), and his other numbers are right around his career averages. The fact that the Phillies are 35-43 in Hamels’ 78 starts since his extension kicked in says more about the team than it does about him.

Even on a trade market that could include Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and others (the Boston Globe reported Thursday that some teams are hoping the Red Sox trade Clay Buchholz), Hamels will likely be the top prize.

The Dodgers sent one of their top scouts to watch him Wednesday, which was not surprising, considering they need pitching now and will need more if Zack Greinke does the expected and opts out of his contract after this season.

The Rangers were mentioned this week by Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi, and on the same day, columnist Kevin Kernan wrote in the New York Post that the Yankees need to get Hamels at any cost.

The talks will continue, and Hamels will wait, although he did try to bring in a little levity when he playfully cleaned out his locker one day during the Phillies’ last homestand.

The Phillies can market Hamels as a guy who might get you to the World Series this year, knows what to do once he’s there (his seven postseason wins are tied for second among active pitchers, behind CC Sabathia’s nine) and is signed to a reasonable contract that still has three seasons to run after this one.

When the Phillies signed Hamels, the idea was that he was young enough to survive whatever necessary rebuilding they needed and still contribute to their next winning team. They could still make that argument now, except the Phillies are such a mess that it’s hard to see that next winning team coming within the next two or three years.

MacPhail’s pending arrival could mean the end for both Amaro and manager Ryne Sandberg, who was handed a difficult situation but seems to be confirming the opinion of others that he wouldn’t be very good at the job. The Phillies have some top young talent, both in the big leagues (Maikel Franco) and in the minors (Double-A shortstop J.P. Crawford), but they don’t have nearly enough of it.

They have other trade chips too, in closer Jonathan Papelbon and perhaps even first baseman Ryan Howard. But both of them come with big contracts and big questions, and neither could bring the kind of return the Phillies really need.

Hamels can, and he probably will. And he’s going to do it with his strong left arm, not with any funny comments coming out of his mouth.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

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