Philadelphia Philles and San Francisco Giants: Cliff Lee Vs Matt Cain

The Philadelphia Phillies and the San Francisco Giants have two of the best pitching rotations in baseball heading into the 2011 season. The Phillies rotation is full of veteran leadership and true ace-caliber pitching. The Giants rotation is young, full of potential and battle tested. The Phillies are led by Roy Halladay, while Tim Lincecum sits atop the Giants rotation. Both are two-time Cy Young Award winners and considered among the few elite pitchers in baseball.

However, much of the debate when looking at these two rotations comes when comparing Cliff Lee and Matt Cain. Some like Cain, while others prefer Lee. I am going to look at the statistics of both Cain and Lee over the past three seasons to make an informed decision as to who I believe will be the better No. 2 starter in 2011.

I used Fangraphs as my source for statistics. Also, I am not going to explain all of the abbreviations I use. Head over to Baseball Prospectus if you need definitions.

In 2008, Cliff Lee won the American League Cy Young Award. He started 31 games, pitched 223.1 innings and finished with a 22-3 record. Cliff Lee also led the league with a 2.54 ERA and a 168 ERA+. Lee posted a K/BB: 5.0, while compiling a WHIP of 1.11. Lee’s FIP was 2.83, which does not differ much from his actual ERA showing just how effective Lee was in 2008.

His BABIP was .301 showing luck did not factor into his performance. Finally, Lee posted an astonishing WAR of 7.2. After reviewing Lee’s 2008 numbers, it is easy to see why he was named the AL Cy Young Award winner.

Matt Cain pitched 34 games and 217.2 innings while compiling an 8-14 record in 2008. Although an 8-14 record is not very impressive, I do not consider a pitchers record nearly as important as other statistics when trying to determine their actual value. There are too many factors which the pitcher cannot control when determining the winner/loser of a game.

Moving on…Cain posted an ERA of 3.76, ERA+ of 118 and WHIP of 1.36. Cain’s FIP was 3.91, just slightly higher than his actual ERA. All of these are good numbers, but not outstanding. His BABIP was .297, which is right around the league average showing, like Lee, his success should not be attributed to luck. Cain’s K/BB ratio of 2.04 was quite ordinary. Although Cain’s K/9 was 7.7, which was better than Lee’s 6.9, his BB/9 was 3.8, which was significantly worse than Lee’s 1.4. Cain’s 3.7 WAR was very good, but it was not elite.

2008 Advantage: Cliff Lee

In 2009, Cliff Lee started the season with the Indians before being traded midseason to the Philadelphia Phillies. Between the two teams he pitched 231.2 innings and started 34 games. He finished with a 14-13 record. Lee had a 3.22 ERA, an ERA+ of 131 and a WHIP of 1.24. Lee once again produced a FIP 3.11, almost identical to his actual ERA and a BABIP, .315, right around the norm. Lee’s K/BB ratio fell a bit from 2008 to 4.21.

Lee’s WAR value was calculated at 6.6. These are all numbers which are expected from a front of the rotation pitcher. Lee’s numbers dropped off a bit from his Cy Young performance in 2008, but that was expected. He still put up very impressive numbers across two leagues.

Matt Cain pitched 33 games and 217.2 innings in 2009. He finished with a record of 14-8. He produced an ERA of 2.89, ERA+ 148 and WHIP of 1.18. All of these numbers were better than Lee’s. However, Cain’s FIP was 3.89, which is a full run higher than his actual ERA. This would suggest his numbers may be a little better than they should have been. This could be attributed to his BABIP of .263 which is much lower than the norm of .300. Both his FIP and BABIP would suggest Cain was a little lucky in 2009 and should have posted higher numbers across the board. He once again posted a pedestrian 2.34 K/BB ratio.

Cain finished with a WAR of only 3.5, which was actually slightly less than his 2008 WAR.

2009 Advantage: Tie. Advanced statistics show Lee had a better 2009 but Cain put up a better ERA, WHIP and ERA+. Therefore, I would say this is a toss up.

2010 once again saw Lee switching teams midseason. He missed his first few starts because of injury, but still pitched 212.1 innings over 28 games. He compiled a 12-9 record. Lee posted an ERA of 3.18, ERA+ 130 and a WHIP of 1.00. These are very good numbers, however, his FIP, 2.58 suggests he was even better than those numbers. His 2.58 FIP was second best in the entire league for 2010. His BABIP was .287, once again showing his numbers were not effected much by luck.

Lee’s most astonishing number was his 10.28 K/BB ratio which led the league. For the season, Lee walked only 18 batters while striking out 185. Lee, by all accounts, had one of his best seasons in 2010. He finished with a WAR of 7.1 which was best in the league.

In 2010 Cain pitched 223.1 innings across 35 games. His record was 13-11. Cain posted an ERA of 3.14, ERA+ 130 and a WHIP of 1.084. However, once again his FIP, 3.65 was much higher than his actual ERA. His BABIP, .252, was also much lower than the norm. Both of these factors would suggest Cain benefited from luck in 2010 and should have had worse numbers than he actually posted.

His K/BB ratio rose slightly to 2.90, but was still nothing special. Especially when compared to Lee. Cain posted a good WAR of 4.0.

2010 Advantage: Cliff Lee. His K/BB ratio, WAR, and FIP place him among the elite pitchers in 2010.

As you can see, both pitchers are very good and most teams would be lucky to have them as their No. 1 starter, let alone their No. 2. However, the advantage must go to Cliff Lee here. Cain’s numbers suggest he has been greatly overachieving and it is too early to know if this will be a trend throughout his career. Cain is a fly ball pitcher, 42 percent career fly ball rate, and benefits greatly from pitching in AT&T Park: Home ERA 3.19/Road ERA 3.76.

This could also explain his huge differences in ERA and FIP. However, Cain is still a very solid pitcher. Lee has been consistently very good over the past three seasons and a move to the NL for a full season will only benefit him.

Therefore, in my opinion, Cliff Lee projects to be a better pitcher than Matt Cain in 2011.

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