Philadelphia Phillies Trade Speculation: Is Joe Blanton Headed to St. Louis?

Adam Wainwright will undergo Tommy John Surgery in the near future, prematurely ending his 2011 season. Before his injury, Wainwright looked to lead a strong St. Louis Cardinals rotation, which also included Chris Carpenter, Jamie Garcia, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse. If the Cardinals decide to fill out their rotation with a pitcher already in their camp, Ian Snell, Kyle McClellan, P.J. Walters and Lance Lynn will compete for the final spot. However, there is also a possibility they will look to acquire a pitcher through a trade before Opening Day.The Phillies and the Cardinals might just match up if the Cardinals decide they need to go outside of their organization to add an arm.

The Phillies are saying and doing all of the right things when it comes to dealing with Joe Blanton right now. But, I still think if the right offer were to arise, they would at least entertain it. I am talking about a deal where the Phillies would acquire Colby Rasmus in exchange for Blanton. The Phillies would most likely have to include some money towards Blanton’s remaining salary.The Phillies would acquire a young, talented and controllable outfielder, while the Cardinals would instantly upgrade their rotation and ease some of the pain of losing Wainwright. The question is: Would the Phillies want Rasmus if the Cardinals were willing to include him in the deal?

Colby Rasmus, 24 years old, posted a .276/.361/.498 slash line in 2010. He also hit 23 HR and produced 66 RBI, finishing with a 132 OPS+. These are all very impressive numbers, especially for a 24-year-old. The problem lies not only in the fact that Rasmus hits from the left side of the plate, but also in the widely perceived notion that Rasmus cannot hit left-handed pitching. The latter is very important because if Rasmus hit LHP well it would not matter which side of the plate he hit from. So the question arises whether Rasmus truly cannot hit LHP or has he not been given ample opportunity to prove that he can?

Ideally, when examining his lefty-platoon splits I would be able to use at least 1,000 plate appearances. However, Rasmus has only 256 PA in his young career vs. LHP, so I will use what I have. In 115 PA during the 2009 season, Rasmus was terrible against LHP posting a .218 wOBA. Compare that to his .341 wOBA against RHP and .218 looks even worse. The one glimmer of hope from 2009 was Rasmus’ .187 BABIP against LHP which suggests he was very unlucky.

In 2010, Rasmus had only 131 PA against LHP. However, his numbers were much more encouraging, as he posted a wOBA of .355 and an OPS of .810 against LHP. Rasmus did strike out at a high rate (33 percent) in 2010, but his strikeout percentage vs. LHP (29.6 percent) was actually less than against RHP (32.7 percent).

Throughout his minor league career, Rasmus hit pretty well against LHP—.275/.371/.455—as opposed to .278/.364/.496 vs. RHP. His minor league numbers suggest he should be an adequate hitter against LHP in the major leagues.He showed good improvement from 2009 to 2010. However, he must be allowed to prove himself against LHP. Rasmus is obviously not a LHP killer, but he is also not as terrible as most would believe.

Rasmus is only 24 years old with immense upside. He would infuse some youth into an aging Phillies lineup. Another key factor is Rasmus is not eligible for free agency until 2015. This would give the Phillies a young, reasonably priced outfield of Rasmus, Domonic Brown and Shane Victorino for the next few years. After looking at Rasmus’ stats, I think it would make sense for the Phillies to accept a deal of Rasmus for Blanton (plus cash) if the opportunity arises. If the Cardinals believe they need to add an established pitcher to their rotation and the Phillies believe Rasmus will hit LHP, then this may be something to watch as spring training progresses.

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