2011 Philadelphia Phillies: Is There Any Way They Do Not Win the NL East?

Every team enters every season with questions. 

The bottom line question for the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies is this: Can they live up to this unprecedented hype and bring home the franchise’s third World Series?

I’m not going to go quite that far, but I’d like to give some evidence that, to me, suggests that there is absolutely no way that this Phillies team does not walk away with their fifth consecutive NL East Crown.

The Phillies won the East in 2007 with Jimmy Rollins providing an MVP season and one of the greatest offensive/defensive seasons that a shortstop has ever produced. 

They also won the East in 2010, when a largely ineffective Rollins played in only 88 games.

The Phillies won the East in 2007 with Brett Myers as their closer.  They won in 2008 when Brad Lidge had one of the five greatest seasons that any closer has ever had. 

They won the division in 2009 when Brad Lidge had one of, if not the worst season of any closer in history.

The Phillies won the NL East with Aaron Rownd patrolling center field in 2007.  That season, Shane Victorino played predominantly in right field, while Jayson Werth barely played at all. 

They also won in 2008 with Victorino in center and a Werth/Jenkins platoon in right. 

They won the division in 2008, with Brett Myers (who, incidentally, had to go down to the Iron Pigs that year to “right” himself) as their No. 2 starter.  They won with Jamie Moyer as their No. 3 starter. 

They won their division in 2007 and 2008 with Cole Hamels as their No. 1 starter and a good one, at that. 

They also won their division in 2009 with Hamels having, by his standards, an absolutely dreadful year. 

Are we beginning to see what I’m talking about here?  No?

The Phils have won two division titles with Pat Burrell in left field.  They’ve won two with Raul Ibanez in left field.  They even won with the less-than-mediocre three-headed monster of Abraham Nunez, Gregg Dobbs and Wes Helms at third base!

They’ve won the division winning but 89 games.  They’ve won it with a Major League high 97.  They’ve won it scoring 892 runs as a team.  They’ve won it scoring just 772 runs.  They’ve won with a team ERA of 3.68, and they’ve won with a team ERA of 4.73. 

Here is the main point. 

The last four Phillies teams have won the National League Eastern Division, and all have been significantly different from the team that preceded it.  They’ve won with hitting, and they’ve won with pitching. 

The only constants seem to be Charlie Manuel, an admittedly very strong manager of personalities, but a manager that will never be mistaken for a tremendous strategist. 

Another constant has been exceptional team defense that has always had top notch strength up the middle, with Ruiz, Rollins, Utley and Victorino (and Rowand for one of those years). 

Yet one more constant would be the “big three” of Rollins, Utley and Howard. 

However, all three of these guys had down years last year.  This is a valid concern for Phillies fans, as they are all now into their 30’s and could be on the decline. 

Even if this may be somewhat true, and I chose to think that last year was a speed bump rather than downward slope with a sharp decline, with all three having down years, the team still won the division last year and sported baseball’s best regular season record.

Do they have any competition for the division? 

Well, the New York Mets could have a nice offensive season if the bats of Beltran and Bay come back to join forces with Reyes, Wright and breakout Davis.  They just do not have the pitching to contend. 

The Marlins have some talent, particularly on the mound, but just do not have any kind of team chemistry.  What do you expect when your superstar only cares about himself? 

The Nats?  Maybe in five years.  Maybe not even then.

This leaves the Atlanta Braves.  They have a decent team but certainly not an offensively overpowering one. 

Jason Heyward could be headed to stardom, but will not quite make it to that point this year.  Chipper Jones could be ready for the season, but he will never be close to what he was.  Dan Uggla was a nice pickup, but the rest of the team is filled out with solid, but nowhere near spectacular, veterans. 

Now, their top three starting pitchers are a different story.  Tim Hudson might be the most underrated ace in baseball and can keep the Braves in any game against any other ace in the game. 

Tommy Hanson has a lot of talent but does show some inconsistency.  Derek Lowe might be one of the best number three pitchers in baseball, and if Jurgens can get back to 2009 form, this could be a formidable staff.

The bullpen looks as though it could be decent, but is largely unproven, and the loss of Billy Wagner will hurt. 

This Braves team is solid and could win up to 90 games in 2011.  Does that make them a threat to the Philadelphia Phillies?  Not by a long shot!

Here’s my point.  No matter what has happened over the past four seasons, the Phillies have managed to come away with the East crown every year. 

Will a year come along eventually in which they are unseated?  Absolutely. 

Will it happen any time soon?  Absolutely not! 

This team wins.  That’s what they do.  They will win no matter what adversity presents itself over the course of the next seven months.  They will win with injuries, and they will win with off years from some of their best.

I agree that once a team enters the postseason that all bets are off.  It tends to be the hot team that gets to, and subsequently wins, the World Series.  One thing is for certain.  The Phillies will take home the NL East crown.

There may be those that say that this article is beyond arrogant, that it has been written by an obvious Phillies fan who cannot see any possibility of the Phillies finishing anywhere but first. 

Anything can happen in baseball, right? 

Yes, anything can happen in baseball.  Yes, all of our starting pitchers could have their arms fall off in Spring Training.  Barring a plane crash that takes out the entire starting lineup and two or three of the pitchers, I think the team is safe for their fifth NL East Championship!

Now, everyone go knock on wood!

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