Philadelphia Phillies vs. Florida Marlins: Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson

Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson are widely considered two of the best starting pitchers in the National League, and it isn’t hard to see why. Through a little more than a month of the 2011 season, they’ve dominated National League opponents, going a combined 8-2 with an ERA of just 1.94 in 14 starts. Tonight, they’ll square off for the fourth time in their careers as the Florida Marlins host the first place Philadelphia Phillies.

Though it’s only the second week of May, the Cy Young debate has already started among baseball faithfuls, and the lead candidates are the guys we’re discussing right here. With Adam Wainwright on the shelf, the field has narrowed to Halladay, Johnson and World Series Champion Tim Lincecum, who isn’t off to quite the same start the first two are.

Now 34 years old, Halladay has rejuvenated himself with his move to the National League last season. After dominating the American League East for years, Halladay took his talents to the more pitcher friendly National League East, and he has certainly dominated.

After taking home the Cy Young Award last season, Halladay is off to another Cy-worthy start, already boasting a record of 5-1 for the Phillies through a month and some change into the season. At 2.19, the Phils’ ace holds the fifth best ERA in the National League, but his advanced stats tell the real story of just how good he’s been through the first month.

His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), is the best in baseball at 1.49. Though he often claims he is not a strikeout pitcher, he’s certainly contradicting himself quite a bit by punching out more than nine batters per nine innings, and walking less than two. He’s given up just one home run this season, and boasts a WHIP of just 0.98. All of those statistics help culminate in a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) rating of 2.5—also the best in baseball among starting pitchers.

With numbers like that, it’s hard to imagine anyone other than Halladay winning the Cy Young—but not so fast. Marlins’ ace Josh Johnson isn’t going to let him run away with the title. He’s been a huge part of the Marlins’ early season success, and if they’re going to make a postseason run, he is going to be a huge part of it.

Though he hasn’t won many decisions, Johnson has kept the Fish close in just about every game he has started. Coming into play on Tuesday, he posted a record of 3-1 with a minuscule ERA of 1.68—second best in the National League to Jair Jurrjens of the Atlanta Braves, who has made two fewer starts.

Like Halladay though, some of these basic stats don’t do the Marlins’ ace any justice. While ERA can present a false result in gauging a pitcher’s success, his FIP of just 2.23 supports the notion that he’s been very, very good this season. He is punching out the opposition at a rate of just over eight per nine innings and walking less than three on the same scale. Like Halladay, he’s allowed just a single home run and the opposition is barely touching him—coming into play Tuesday, they were managing to hit just .158 against him, helping him to a WHIP of 0.85 and a WAR of 1.6.

As I said above, this will be the first time this season that the two will square off, but not the first overall. Halladay and Johnson have been pitted against one another three times in the past, with Johnson coming out on top twice, but Halladay making history.

Back in 2006, when Halladay was a member of the Toronto Blue Jays and Johnson was just breaking into the league, the Fish took on the Jays in interleague play, and the two squared off for the first time. Halladay wasn’t his usually dominate self, allowing four runs in six innings, and was bested by the young Johnson who allowed just a single earned run through five-plus innings of work.

Now a member of the Phils’, Halladay opposed the Marlins several times last season and was pitted against Johnson twice, with one start being significantly more memorable than the other. The first time the two met was in May, when the Phillies traveled to Miami to square off with the Marlins. Halladay faced 27 Marlins that day and retired all 27 of them, recording the second perfect game in the history of the Phils’ franchise.

Later on that season, however, as the two squared off once again, Johnson had his revenge, shutting the Phillies out and besting a good Halladay, who allowed just one run in eight innings of work.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011 will be the fourth time that these two dominate starters match up in their careers, and more than likely, far from the last. It’s very rare that a game in early May is seen as significant, but a Halladay vs. Johnson duel is far from just the best pitching match-up on the docket. This could be a significant match-up for both the Phillies and the Marlins.

For the Phils’, they’re sending the ace of aces to the mound to try and pad their lead in the National League East to a comfortable four games over those pesky Marlins. From the Marlins’ perspective, falling behind four games is never a good sign, and they’d like to stay close behind the arm of their ace.

So if you want to keep an eye on the early Cy Young race, this is the game to watch. As the Fish host the Phils’ for Game 2 of this three game set, we wonder—will the veteran Halladay show us why he’s the reigning Cy Young by returning to the site of his perfect game, or will the young gun Johnson show us that the Marlins are not to be taken lightly this year, forcing the Phils’ to look over their shoulders while in first place?

One thing is for certain—this is a game that any fan of the sport absolutely can not miss.

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