Vance Worley: The Next Kyle Kendrick?

With a 1.13 ERA in 16 innings so far this year, many are under the impression that Vance Worley is more than what he is.

It’s hard to turn a corner without someone harping that he should be the fifth starter instead of Blanton. But is he really deserving of it, other than a deflated ERA? When looking deeper, even in such a small sample size, I’d say he’s on a closer level to that of Kyle Kendrick than being an improvement over Blanton.

And surely, a sane man would not want Kendrick as the Phillies’ fifth starter.

For the record, I do believe Worley is and will be a better player than Kyle Kendrick, but I think its necessary to temper the expectations of many Phillies fans out there.

Like Worley, Kendrick’s rookie season ERA was better than his true ability. Posting a 3.87 ERA is 121 innings led many to think he had some sort of upside as a potentially good starter. I even remember one delusional fan call in WIP and say he could be like another Tom Glavine!

They did not want to believe the naysayers who would point to his 4.94 FIP, 4.57 xFIP and very low 3.64 K/9 as signs that his ERA was mostly a fluke. In Worley’s brief major league career, his ERA, 1.24, is also much lower than his 3.17 FIP and 3.55 xFIP. Although those are still very respectable numbers and much better than Kendrick, there are reasons to believe those are heavily influenced by good luck so far as well.

His 1.24 career ERA has been heavily influenced by a ridiculously unsustainable 95.2 left on base percentage. To put that in some perspective, the highest career LOB% for a starter in the history of baseball is Whitey Ford at 77.9 percent. Roy Halladay’s career LOB% is 73.3 percent.

His ERA, and FIP and xFIP have also been deflated due to a very low and unsustainable .200, about 100 points below the major league average.

An inflated strikeout rate is another reason for a luckier FIP and xFIP. This is also where the comparisons to Kendrick will begin.

Even though Worley has had a 8.38 K/9 in his 29 innings in the majors, signals point that it should be much lower. His career 86.4 contact percentage and 5.5 swinging strike percentage, a better indicator of future strikeout rate, screams of a K/9 that should be much lower.

Looking at these numbers blindly, you would not be able to tell who was who from him and Kendrick.

Their major league career numbers:

Player	Swinging Strike Percent	Contact Percent	Contact Percent pitches in zone	Contact Percent pitches out of zone
Vance         Worley	5.5%	86.4%	92.2%	77.3%
Kyle Kendrick	4.9%	88.7%	93.2%	75.6%

One thing Worley has over Kendrick is coming up through the system, at least Worley showed improvement or steadiness rather than decline like Kendrick.

Being just 23, he still has room for some improvement in the coming years, probably to a capable No. 4. For now, for this season though, I don’t expect him to be some magical find that is something other than a spot starter.

Regression to the mean will inevitably occur, just be prepared.

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