Comparing Ryan Howard and Jim Thome Since 2006

Jim Thome will always be fondly remembered by Phillies fans for taking a leap of faith on an upcoming team. It ushered in a new era for the Phillies. Unfortunately the marriage didn’t last long. In his third season with the Phillies, he battled through injuries that sapped his power led to just under 200 at-bats on the season.

In his absence, another power hitter was impressing. Given his first meaningful, consistent playing time in the majors, Ryan Howard hit 22 homers in 88 games, en route to a .288/.356/.567 line.

In the offseason, the Phillies had to make a difficult decision. Either stick with their young, cheap power hitter or their veteran, expensive, and fan favorite power hitter. Ultimately, Thome was dealt, along with over $20 million, to the White Sox for Aaron Rowand, Gio Gonzalez and Daniel Haigwood. But what if Howard was the one dealt?

In 2006, Howard certainly had the edge. His 58 homers while hitting .313/.425/.659 led to a .436 wOBA, 162 wRC+ and 6.2 WAR all while receiving under $400,000.

Jim Thome wasn’t chopped liver either, as he rebounded in a strong way, hitting .288/.416/.598 with 42 homers and a .420 wOBA and 152 wRC+. His $12.5 million salary was more than worth 4.6 WAR.

2007 could have actually gone to Thome if he was not limited to just 130 games. His .275/.410/.563 line with a .410 wOBA and 148 wRC+ was actually better than Howard’s .268/.392/.584 line with a .399 wOBA and 135 wRC+. But Howard’s 14 more games aided in 3.7 WAR versus 3.3 for Thome.

Howard’s increased strikeout rate and use of the shift in 2007 factored into his drop off, and would be a sign of similar years to come.

The next year was another decline for both players. Howard’s decreased walk-rate led to an underwhelming .251/.339/.543 line. Sure he hit 48 homers, but a player with his power should not have been posting that bad of an on-base percentage. His .366 wOBA and 120 wRC+ was barely less than Thome’s .370 and 122 marks. However, with an older Thome now fully entrenched as a designated hitter, his 2.0 WAR was behind Howard’s 3.0.

Thome’s last year on his contract was guaranteed upon meeting plate appearances upon meeting over 1,100 plate appearances in the previous two years. Age appeared to have finally caught up with Thome as he posted just 1.0 WAR while hitting just 23 homers in 434 plate appearances while being a clog on the bases. His wOBA and wRC+ actually remained almost identical.

Howard rebounded nicely in 2009, hitting .279/.360/.571. His .393 wOBA and 140 wRC+ bested Thome and was a key, along with improved defense, to a 4.6 WAR.

Howard’s salary started getting ridiculous in 2010, as his 1.3 WAR was far from worth $19 million. Injuries certainly took a toll on his hitting and fielding. Thome experienced a resurgence with his new team, the Minnesota Twins. Signing for just $1.6 million, he was used cautiously and smartly. Putting him in the best positions possible, he hit 25 homers in just 340 plate appearances. His 178 wRC+ was actually the second best of his career. His 3.2 WAR was an impressive return on the Twins’ small investment.

In the same limited role this year, Thome is not having as good of a season as last year, but still has managed a .369 wOBA and 135 wRC+, better than Howard’s .357 and 123 marks. Howard’s many more games played has led to 0.5 more wins though.

People would be surprised how close their total numbers have been since 2006. Hitting alone, Thome has edged Howard in the rate statistics. His .266/.390/.546(142 OPS+) barely tops Howard’s .275/.370/.562(139 OPS+). Thome’s collective .397 wOBA and 141 wRC+ is also better than Howard’s .387 and 135.

Of course, Howard’s durability and Thome’s inevitable exile to designated hitter has enabled him being five wins better than Thome. However, he has also been paid over $7 million more than Thome with a lot more to come. It would have been interesting how the Phillies would have fared if they opted to keep Thome instead of Howard, assuming they could have gotten more than just Ted Lilly for him.

In the end, congratulations to Jim Thome, who should be elected to the Hall of Fame when he retires and achieved 600 home runs without disgracing the game like a couple others in the same company.

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