Old vs. New Turf Wars and the NL Cy Young Candidates

Baseball fans, beware! What was once a small neighborhood gang war may now be taking over our beautiful national pastime.

Sorry to be so alarmist, but this (artificial) turf war seems to pose the same danger as the Crips (who wore blue) and Bloods (red) did to one another in 1980’s Los Angeles. Granted, no lives and body parts are at stake here, but the very way we view baseball statistics is.

If you wish to color this great divide, the Blues can represent the Neanderthals, the Luddites, the old-school types. These old men and women—to hear the “Reds” describe them—only look at counting stats and simple metrics such as RBI, wins and losses and ERA. I guess they are the blue-bloods who treasure the history of the game and don’t accept change easily. Or at all.

The Reds are coming on strong, as they are attracted to much sexier terminology such as WAR (wins above replacement). Such militaristic jargon appeals to a new breed, who ironically use a lot of stats that rhyme with “ip” such as FIP, x-FIP and BABIP. They scoff at traditional statistics.

Wins and losses and ERA for pitchers? Batting average for batters? To the Reds, who gives a blip? Please pardon the vernacular.

Of course, this topic deserves a much stronger treatment than I will produce here, but for now, please be thankful that this is not a slideshow or a power ranking. Okay, it does culminate in my preliminary ranking of the leading National League Cy Young Award candidates.

As for these two diametrically opposed gangs, I belong to neither.

I may be too analytical for the Blues and too traditional— and I’d like to think logical— for the Reds. For example, I don’t care much for WAR, but do like to whip out tools like WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched).

Call me a Green, if you will. I want to make peace with both sides for the greater good of the game. I think that many Blues should get used to the idea of going beyond the surface of readily apparent stats to dig a little deeper.

But as a Green, I increasingly see the Reds as more of a threat to the peaceful coexistence of baseball fans everywhere and to the sanctity of the game. Left with complete power, I fear that under a Reds dictatorship, time-cherished stats such as wins and losses will be abolished or relegated to four-point type.

RBI will be considered meaningless, and one day power hitters will be ranked solely on how many homers would have been homers to left center at Wrigley Field in 1958 on days when the temperature was between 55 and 83 degrees and when the wind was less than 15 on the Beaufort scale.

Two notes here. If you think I’m an expert on either the Bloods and Crips or wind measurement metrics, think again. If you think that most of the Reds could succinctly tell you how to calculate more than half of the stats they parade, think again, and again.

This all leads me to the National League CY Young Award race. With very few pennant races up for grabs in the final three weeks of the 162-game grind, this promises to be one of the most hotly debated years for individual contests.

By the way, 2009 was a great year for the Red gang, as Zach Greinke captured the AL Cy Young Award with only 16 wins while Tim Lincecum won over the NL voters with only 15. If 2009 was a great year, 2010 brought unprecedented joy as the Mariners‘ (King) Felix Hernandez garnered the award with a 13-12 record. King Felix’s coronation was hailed as a victory for the stat geeks, who saw the possibility that even the most steadfast Reds would see the light shining from the beacon of inside baseball stats.

Have they, er, we, seen the light—Reds and Greens alike?

Last year, AL Cy Young Award voters had a choice (primarily) between Felix Hernandez (13-12, 2.27) and the Yankees’ CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18). They both had great years, especially when you consider that the King won 13 games for a team that finished 61-101 and compiled a much better ERA. Hernandez was also superior to CC in innings pitched, complete games, strikeouts, K/BB and WHIP. He led the league in many of these departments.

Last year, my mythical vote went to Felix as well, and I also gave a lot of consideration to another 13-12 hurler, the Angels’ Jered Weaver.

Time, as well as this year’s NL Cy Young Award vote, may help us see if the Red gang is winning this ideological turf war and if a paradigm shift occurred these last couple years.

Let me express one more thing before giving my current rankings of where I would place my top five NL Cy Young candidates.

The Red gang uses a lot of stats that rhyme with “ip” (not to be confused with innings pitched) to quantify what a picture can or cannot control. My quick take is this: yes, there is some luck involved in pitching or hitting a baseball, but the game needs to be (mostly) defined by easily measurable results. 

In trying to determine the most worthy recipient of our votes, we need to look at performance. Strikeouts do add value to a pitcher’s profile and walks detract, but not all batted balls are created equal, and I don’t subscribe to the school of thought that a pitcher is lucky because his FIPS, or PIPs, or xfPIPs or Gladys Knight and the Pips were out of expected norms, or off key. We’re awarding performance, not predicting future success as scouts or general managers.

Before ranking numbers one through five in ascending order, I have not ranked the next six pitchers, five of whom would round out my top 10:

Tim Lincecum (Giants): 12-12, 2.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 200 Ks

Matt Cain (Giants):  11-10, 2.84, 1.06 WHIP, 164 Ks

Johnny Cueto  (Reds, the Cincinnati Reds): 9-5, 2.36, 102 Ks in fewer innings/starts

Craig Kimbrel (Braves): 4-2, 42 saves, 1.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

John Axford (Brewers): 2-2, 36 saves, 2.23 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

Joel Hanrahan (Pirates): 2-2, 36 saves, 1.58 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

I should also explain that these are my personal choices, and not predictions as they stand now in a very tight race.

 

5. Cole Hamels, Phillies

Hamels’ stats are 13-7, 2.65, league-leading 0.97 WHIP, two complete games, 169 Ks and 38 BB. The third Philly ace has pitched brilliantly this year, but has been stuck on 13 wins for a month, due to a missed start, rain-outs and poor run support.

4. Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks

Kennedy’s stats are 18-4, 2.96, 1.12 WHIP, 167 Ks and 51 BBs. The league leader in wins (and win percentage for qualified starters) is coming on real fast, winning nine of his 10 starts since the All-Star break. In those 10 starts, he has only yielded more than two runs twice.

His ERA is a bit higher than the top three, and some of his other numbers aren’t quite the eye candy that Reds love, but he’s edging closer and closer to No. 1.

3. Roy Halladay, Phillies

Halladay’s stats are 16-5, 2.49, a league-leading seven complete games, 1.06 WHIP, 195 Ks and 26 BBs (also the best K/BB ratio). Doc has been, typically, brilliant this year, and his numbers are not far away from those that won him a unanimous Cy Young Award in his first year in the NL. He has been just a little bit out of rhythm at times since the All-Star break, but still quite good.

Starts have been moved back due to his starting the Midsummer Classic, hurricanes and biblical rains, and he even had to endure a silly, 13-minute instant-replay delay. Through it all, he’s been great, even if I’d rank him narrowly behind two southpaws.

2. Cliff Lee, Phillies

Lee’s stats are 16-7, 2.47, a league-leading six shutouts—and one out away from a seventh—1.03 WHIP and a 204 Ks and 40 BBs. Given his MLB-leading six shutouts and two Pitcher of the Month titles, Lee has probably been the most spectacular pitcher in the league when playing his best.

Cliff is white-hot now, having won his last seven starts and only giving up six runs in his last six. Still, I have him ever-so-slightly behind…

1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Kershaw’s stats are 17-5, 2.45, 1.02 WHIP, a league-leading 220 strikeouts and 50 walks. Kershaw ranks either first, second or third in almost every meaningful pitching category this year, and I gave him a few extra points for being a dominant force while playing for a dispirited, non-competitive bunch.

When Kershaw gets a decision, the Dodgers play .773 ball; in their other 119 games, they are playing at a .437 pace.

So, there you have it. Kershaw has a slight lead over Lee, Halladay, Kennedy, Hamels and Company on my ballot, but he still has to close the deal down the stretch. It’s that close.

Kershaw, although wearing Dodgers Blue, has compiled lots of stats that even the Red gang can embrace, even if the WAR-mongers among them still seem to favor Doc Halladay.

Let the artificial turf wars continue without bloodshed, and play ball!

Matt Goldberg, a featured columnist for the Philadelphia Phillies and all-around baseball fanatic, is also a noted humor author and speaker. For more information, please visit www.tipofthegoldberg.com

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