2012 MLB: Lack of Patience Leads to Philadelphia Phillies’ Early Struggles

The days of the big boppers are gone.  It’s no secret.  No one is confusing the Philadelphia Phillies‘ lineup with an American League powerhouse, as was the case in the latter part of the previous decade. 

Runs are not coming by way of the long ball anymore, and they will not be anytime soon either, at least until the returns of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard from the disabled list.

This team can still win games though.  “Small ball” is the name of the game for manager Charlie Manuel.  The idea that three or four runs a game can be enough when coupled with the league’s best rotation has the potential to work. 

So why, then, are the Phillies under .500 after a weekend series loss to the rival New York Mets?

The pitching has been, predictably, fantastic.  Roy Halladay leads a group in the top three in ERA, WHIP, and walks. Check.

The defense has been very solid too.  Only the Reds have committed less errors than the Phillies’ 4, while Freddy Galvis and Shane Victorino have made fantastic plays look routine daily, it seems.  Check.

The baserunning, too, has been great, as no team has more steals (10) or a better theft percentage (91%) in the National League than the Phightin’ Phils. 

(Note: It’s been an afterthought for this era, with the power of 2005-2009 and the pitching of 2010-now, but the Phillies’ baserunning has been phenomenal.  Chase Utley has the highest steal percentage (89.23%) in Major League history, among qualifiers, with Jimmy Rollins (20th) and Shane Victorino (24th) not far behind.  That’s amazing.)

Even the offense hasn’t been as bad as people think.  The Phillies are third in the NL in batting average, at .260, and only .003 under the league average for slugging.  That, combined with the pitching, defense and baserunning, should be enough for a winning record, at least.

The one thing that teams playing “small ball” need to do more than any other team is wait for their pitches.  If they don’t come, take the walk and get on base, work your way to scoring position and find a way to score. It takes patience.

And therein lies the missing link. 

The Phillies are next-to-last in the National League in walks.  They are next to last in walk percentage, and, maybe most indicative of all, they are next to last in pitches seen. 

As a team, they have seen 21 three-ball, one-strike counts.  On the next pitch, they have swung 16 times.  Swinging at a 3-1 pitch is forgivable, but is usually reserved for guys with power.  On a team mostly without such players, taking those pitches might help get a few more guys on base.

John Mayberry Jr., probably the team’s lone true power hitter, hasn’t drawn a walk in 28 plate appearances.  As a six or seven-hole guy, though, it isn’t as painful, as hitters later in the lineup are expected more to drive runs in than set the table.  Such is not the case for the first three batters in the order.

Juan Pierre, Placido Polanco and Jimmy Rollins have combined for two walks in 91 plate appearances.  That’s unacceptable for any team, but especially for a team like the Phillies, who need baserunners to get in scoring position in order to grind runs out.

Where it hurts more, in the grand scheme, to not take pitches, is in the opposing pitcher’s pitch count and, subsequently, the amount of pitches the batter sees from him.

In other words, swinging early in counts or not working pitchers into deep counts allows them to stay in the game longer.  So instead of a starter leaving in the sixth and getting to face a middle relief guy, you end up seeing the starter going strong into the seventh or eighth before he gives way to a closer. 

Much of the damage in baseball is done against the first pitcher out of the bullpen, so working counts is vital.

Also, if you swing at a 1-0 pitch, you have in effect seen two pitches, maximum, from a pitcher’s arsenal, leaving him with at least two more he can go to the next time you come to the plate that you haven’t seen yet.  Working him the first time into showing you his hand, more or less, can be very helpful in later at-bats, because you know what the pitcher is bringing to the table. 

So impatience at the plate does a disservice to your team, while letting the opposing pitcher off the hook at the same time. 

Phillies hitters need to relax, take their time at the plate, and let the game come to them.  Pressing, in any sport, has the same effect, and always happens when things aren’t going well.  Like free throw shooting in basketball, or field goal kicking in football, patience at the plate is just a matter of nerves and confidence. 

If these guys can learn to be patient, they will be just fine in 2012.

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