Why Ruben Amaro Jr. May Blow Up Phillies’ Roster Come July

Today’s Captain Obvious statement: This season hasn’t gone very well for the Philadelphia Phillies.

After an encouraging road trip with series wins over the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals, the top two teams in the NL East, the Phillies flew straight down for a crash landing and were swept at home by the New York Mets.

That left the Phillies in last place with a 14-18 record, the third-worst mark in the National League. Manager Charlie Manuel saw all he could stand and couldn’t stand anymore after the 10-6 loss that finished off the sweep.

“We have to wake up and play better,” Manuel said to reporters after he called a team meeting. “We don’t like what we’ve been doing.”

“If we want to win and be able to go where we want to go, we better start playing better. We have to hit better, we have to catch the ball better and we have to pitch better. All three phases of the game. I think we need to get back to playing the game the way it needs to play, if we can.”

MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki correctly zeroed in on those last three words. Is there doubt as to whether the Phillies can really turn this thing around? 

Hours later, in a conversation with CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. went to a place Phillies fans surely never expected. 

“July is so far ahead,” Amaro said. “We just have to get on track. But if July comes and we’re playing like this, we’ll be sellers. How we play now will determine whether we’ll be buyers or sellers in July.”

The Phillies as sellers at the trade deadline? This is a team with championship expectations, projected to win the NL East, though perhaps warding off challenges from the Nationals and Miami Marlins. 

 

Impotent Lineup, Imploding Bullpen

Sure, it was bound to be rough in the early going.

Chase Utley wasn’t able to overcome knee injuries during the spring and his return is uncertain. Ryan Howard is out until at least mid-June, recovering from a torn Achilles tendon. Placido Polanco dealt with a finger injury and seems to be aging rapidly. Juan Pierre didn’t make the team until the end of spring training and is now the regular left fielder.

But if offensive struggles were expected, troubles from the bullpen were not.

Chad Qualls has allowed four runs and nine hits in his last three innings of work. Jose Contreras carries an 8.59 ERA. Kyle Kendrick has become a walking meltdown. Michael Schwimer and his 8.53 ERA were optioned to Class AAA, as was Brian Sanches and his 11.53 ERA. Joe Savery also boarded a shuttle to Lehigh Valley. 

Amaro could upgrade both of those areas if he was to start selling off pieces. That would be one reason to start breaking this thing down in July. 

 

Old and Busted

The Phillies’ roster also just needs to get younger. With an average age of 31.5, it’s the oldest club in the major leagues. Amaro has been able to plug holes with aging veterans like Ty Wigginton, Laynce Nix and Jim Thome, but it’s caught up with them as those players continue to break down with injuries. 

Trading away some of those veterans, especially the ones whose contracts expire after this season, would help replenish a minor league system that’s been tapped out by Amaro’s blockbuster dealing. This season has shown that the Phillies are in dire need of reinforcements, but none are available.

 

Who Could Go?

Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino would be the obvious places to start, since the Phillies risk losing them in free agency anyway. Not so coincidentally, the Toronto Blue Jays have already inquired about both players, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.  

But which contenders wouldn’t relish the chance to add one of the best pitchers in baseball? Even better, he’s left-handed. Teams on the fringes of the race might decide Hamels could provide a major boost, too. 

Victorino could help several teams in need of outfield help and speed, such as the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers. I’d say the Nationals too, but Amaro likely isn’t going to make a deal with a division rival. 

That could also apply to Hunter Pence, who could supply some outfield pop for any team in need.

If the Phillies don’t envision signing Pence to a long-term contract, he has one more year of arbitration eligibility that would keep him under club control until 2014. That’s a luxury that could allow Amaro to ask for more in trade. Although that’s the kind of player the Phillies should keep right now. 

 

Yes, much can change between now and July. And Philadelphia fans would surely hate giving up on this season when so much was expected.

But the early signs are not promising for the Phillies. Though they’re hardly out of the race from where they stand now, there are still four teams to leapfrog for the division lead. That’s a hurdle looking increasingly too high to clear. 

With Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, along with Howard and his albatross of a contract, the Phillies aren’t going to go into full rebuilding mode. There’s no need for that. But if the feeling is that the team can’t win this year, Amaro should do what he can to improve those chances for next year. 

Sacrifice 2012 to come back stronger in 2013? It gets easier to imagine with each Phillies loss.

 

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