Why Darin Ruf’s Emergence Could Mean the End of Ryan Howard with Phillies

Before we begin here, ladies and gentlemen, let me emphasize that this article is most likely a complete stretch of any sort of reality we currently have.

On that note…Philadelphia Phillies minor league first baseman and occasional left fielder Darin Ruf was exceptional this year down at Double-A Reading. He led the league in home runs with 38, breaking Ryan Howard’s Reading season record. Ruf also led in RBI with 104. And would you know it, Ruf fell short of the batting average title to complete the Triple Crown…by two points. Nevertheless, he won the Phillies’ Paul Owens Award for the best offensive minor leaguer, and he also won the Eastern League’s MVP Award.

What Phillies fans may care about more, though, is that Ruf was recently promoted to the major league ballclub. He’ll most likely be playing in left field so the Phillies can see what they can get out of him there, but there’s likely the occasional game where he’ll give Ryan Howard the day off and play his natural position of first base.

Speaking of Ryan Howard, is his job in jeopardy with the emergence of Ruf? Has the Phillies’ best minor league positional player made such a statement that Howard, despite the fat contract he’s got on his plate, could in fact lose his starting role or even be traded to make room for Ruf?

Well, the sky is still blue, so for right now I’m going to say no. But in the event that it did happen, here’s a list of why it’s at least a slim possibility.

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Phillies Free Agency: Best Ways to Improve Bullpen Heading into Next Year

Is there a slight chance of postseason glory for the Philadelphia Phillies? Absolutely. But are the odds in their favor? Absolutely not.

At this point, barring any significant hot streak, the Phillies are looking ahead to 2013 and this offseason will be a big determining factor in whether the Phils can regain their former glory next year. GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. will have many holes to fill, including third base, center field, one or both of the corner outfield spots, a starting pitcher and a proven veteran or two in the bullpen.

While the positional decisions will almost surely be prioritized, a portion of the team that can’t be forgotten is the bullpen. It’s undoubtedly been the Phillies’ biggest weakness this season. The team’s 4.44 bullpen ERA ranks 26th out of 30 teams in the majors, and the AL team with the worst bullpen record, the Cleveland Indians, sit only at 4.07 and two spots ahead of the Fightins’. That’s when you know there’s a problem.

As free agency approaches, the Phillies will have to make sure that improving the bullpen is not at the bottom of their offseason shopping list. They do have almost too many relievers waiting in the wings in the minor leagues, and although a good number of them will be given the opportunity to contribute, the Phillies also need a proven veteran aside from Jonathan Papelbon.

Without further ado, here are the best ways the Phillies can improve their bullpen going forward via free agency.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Prospects Who Can Play Way into Starting Role This Fall

Now that it’s practically safe to say the Philadelphia Phillies are out of any sort of playoff race, what may ensue between now and the end of the season is a series of positional tryouts, per se.

After the Phillies traded Shane Victorino to the Los Angeles Dodgers and Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants, two of the team’s starting outfield spots instantly became free for the taking. Add in Joe Blanton being sent to the Dodgers in a waiver trade, and yet another hole opened up on the Phillies’ roster.

In the light of the team’s recent transactions, the Phillies are essentially holding a positional tryout. There’s currently a center field, right field, and starting pitching job up for grabs, with third base and left field also likely to see new faces next season.

Players like former top prospect Domonic Brown, recently-acquired Nate Schierholtz, longtime swingman Kyle Kendrick and recently-promoted Kevin Frandsen are being used to fill the holes in the lineup…for now.

When free agency hits, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. will have to take each of the aforementioned players’ post-trade deadline play into account and must determine whether he has to make any free-agent signings or trades to turn the Phillies into a contender once again.

But what about prospects? Granted, the Phillies’ farm system has been thinned due to acquisitions made over the last few years. And while the Phillies were sellers this year after being buyers in years past, their farm system still remains bleak even with the acquisitions of prospects Tommy Joseph and Ethan Martin, and minor leaguer Seth Rosin.

But there are a few bright spots in the Phillies’ minor leagues, including some who could impact the big league club sooner rather than later. They will also be granted tryouts this year, either sometime later this month or as a September call-up when rosters expand from 25 players to 40.

Here’s a look at five of those prospects who could make a nice impression in a major league tryout this year and work their way into a future starting job. And just so you know, no relievers will be listed in this slideshow, as this is about prospects playing their way into starting roles. Since bullpen pitchers do not start unless they’re named Raul Valdes, they will be excluded from this slideshow.

 

*All prospect rankings are courtesy of 2012 Baseball America Prospect Handbook unless otherwise noted.

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5 Reasons Dealing Cliff Lee in a Waiver Deadline Deal Would Be Big Mistake

As Cliff Lee took the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, one thing was clear: the Phillies had not traded Lee to the Los Angeles Dodgers. For once, it seemed, GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. had stood by his word.

A day after the August waiver trade period commenced last week, it became known that Lee had been placed on trade waivers by the Phillies. Although it’s a customary procedure done by most teams to gauge potential trade interest in their players, when a player of Lee’s magnitude is placed on trade waivers, it tends to send a shock around the baseball world.

What may have been more shocking, however, was that Lee and the remaining three years and $87.5+ million of his current contract was claimed by the Dodgers. The Dodgers—who had already made a Phillies-related splash twice in almost as many days after acquiring Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton from the team—made the bold move by claiming Lee, putting the Phillies in position to trade Lee and/or dump his remaining contract on the Dodgers and free themselves from the millions still owed to their left-handed ace.

While Lee pitched against the D’Backs, taking yet another no-decision in the Phils’ walk-off win, it signaled that Amaro had not traded Lee before his 1:30 p.m. waiver trade deadline on Sunday. But if Amaro does the unthinkable and puts Lee on trade waivers for a second, irrevocable time, would it be the right move if Lee was claimed?

Here’s five reasons why it wouldn’t behoove the Phillies to let go of Lee on waivers.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Grading the Team’s Deadline Moves

The 2012 trade deadline has come to pass. For the Philadelphia Phillies, though, it could have gone better.

At roughly noon Eastern time today, the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Shane Victorino in exchange for reliever Josh Lindblom and pitching prospect Ethan Martin. Then, about two hours later, the San Francisco Giants made a trade that nabbed Hunter Pence from the Phillies for outfielder Nate Schierholtz, catching prospect Tommy Joseph and minor league starting pitcher Seth Rosin.

It was thought that Joe Blanton could be traded today as well, but a deal with the Baltimore Orioles fell through. Blanton remains on the team for now, as he could be a trade candidate in August through the waiver trade system.

In the meantime, the Phillies have called up Domonic Brown and have activated Brian Schneider off the DL to take the roster spots of Victorino and Pence. But with the returns the Phillies received in exchange for their All-Star outfielders, did the Phillies strike gold or did they find fool’s gold instead?

Let’s take a look at the two deals:

 

Los Angeles Dodgers Receive Victorino, Phillies Get Lindblom and Martin in Return

The Phillies traded away their defensive star center fielder Shane Victorino for Lindblom and Martin. Victorino’s time in Philadelphia was overall spectacular, as he was named to two All-Star teams and won three consecutive Gold Gloves from 2008-2010. He hit .277 as a Phillies with 88 home runs and posted a .776 OPS.

In Lindblom, the Phillies get a somewhat-steady reliever. He’s got a 3.02 ERA this year and 1.26 WHIP, but away from Dodger Stadium his ERA this year is 5.32 and his WHIP is 1.46. At least he’s under team control through 2017.

 

As for Martin, the Phillies surprisingly acquired a pitching prospect in addition to Lindblom for Victorino, so that in itself is a bonus. Martin was ranked as the 17th best prospect in the Dodgers’ system heading into 2011, and while he could project as a number two starter, relief work may be the best opportunity for him in the bigs.

Victorino was traded for what I think was a low price given his track record, but also given his apparent market of only being available for relievers, the Phillies did pretty well. They don’t have to eat any of his remaining salary and they get both a reliever under control for years to come and a prospect who could work his way through the system. Not bad.

Victorino Trade Grade: B

 

Now let’s take a look at the Pence deal.

 

San Francisco Giants Acquire Pence, Trade Joseph, Schierholtz and Rosin to Phillies

Of Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence and Joe Blanton, I least expected Pence to be dealt. Despite Pence being the most expensive of the three, he is under team control through next year and even though his salary will go up once more, he’s one of the Phillies’ younger pieces and hits better than Victorino. Sure enough, it was Blanton who gets to stick around…for now.

Anyway, the Phillies saw the Pence deal headlined by catching prospect Tommy Joseph, the Giants’ second-best prospect. Joseph has tons of power and his game calling skills were considered second only to Giants catcher Buster Posey in their system. He’s also significantly improved his defense and has a very strong arm. Because of this, he’s expected to stick as a catcher. He’ll be starting in Double-A now that Phillies catching prospect Sebastian Valle has been promoted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

 

In adddition, the Phillies got Nate Schierholtz, a utility outfielder who can hit for solid average and isn’t bad defensively. Schierholtz asked to be dealt, so his inclusion in the trade is more like a favor for him and a move the Phillies needed to make for the interim now that Pence’s right field spot is vacant. He’ll be a free agent after the 2014 season.

Then there’s Rosin. Not considered a top prospect, he ranks as the Giants’ fourth-best right-handed minor league starting pitcher. At High-A San Jose this year, Rosin has pitched to a 2-1 record with a 4.31 ERA, 68 Ks and a 1.19 WHIP. Although Baseball America has him listed as a starter, Rosin’s spent more time working out of the bullpen this year.

While Pence’s trade didn’t come as a surprise nor did his destination, the return that the Phillies received for him is appalling. Pence was worth more to the Phillies and has more overall value than a top prospect and two throw-ins. I get that Ruben Amaro, Jr. wanted to shed Pence’s salary, but now that he’s also chipping in some money to San Francisco, it defeats the purpose. Trading Pence is fine. But for this package? It very well may have been worth keeping him.

Pence Trade Grade: D

What do you think of the two trades? Who should have been dealt? Should Victorino and/or Pence have been retained? Leave your opinions in the comments section below.

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Hunter Pence: Philadelphia Phillies Trade Outfielder to San Francisco Giants

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ fire sale continues.

After trading Shane Victorino just over an hour ago to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the San Francisco Giants have countered with a move of their own, acquiring Hunter Pence from the Phillies.

Pence, who the Phillies acquired at last year’s deadline for prospects Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid and Domingo Santana, was outstanding for the Phillies last season, hitting well over .300 with 11 home runs in his two months with the team. After hitting 17 so far this year and posting a .271 batting average with 59 RBI. He’s struggled at times both offensively and defensively this year, but as a former All-Star, Pence is still a great right-handed hitting outfielder, which is exactly what the Giants needed.

In return, the Phillies will get catching prospect Tommy Joseph and likely other prospects, though no other players coming to Philadelphia have been named yet if there are any.

Joseph, the Giants’ number two prospect entering the season according to Baseball America, is said to have great game-calling skills and has tremendously improved his ball-blocking skills and overall defense. His throwing arm is very accurate and offensively he’s an excellent power hitter, though he’s still working on upping his average. There were once questions of his ability to remain a catcher, but they’re now nonexistent. Joseph should remain as a backstop.

The Giants get the perfect piece their outfield and lineup needs. Pence will be a nice force in the middle of the lineup, and the Phillies get a pretty decent catching prospect back at the very least. Although the Phillies have Sebastian Valle in the minors, he’s hasn’t made the progress the Phillies were hoping he would have made by now.

Check back here for updates on the Pence deal as they come around.

1:30 p.m. EDT UPDATE: The deal isn’t done just yet. Per ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick:

 

 

Also being told that #SF Giants deal for Pence is “not done” and some issues need to be completed beyond physicals.

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) July 31, 2012

So it’s not just physicals that needs to be completed. Alright. Well, whether a deal happens or not, stay tuned.

2:00 p.m. EDT UPDATE: Pence has officially been dealt to the Giants. The Phillies will receive Joseph, outfielder Nate Schierholtz, and minor league pitcher Seth Rosin in return. The Phillies will also send over some salary relief to the Giants.

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Philadelphia Phillies Trade Shane Victorino to Los Angeles Dodgers

With roughly four hours remaining until the trade deadline, the Philadelphia Phillies have just sent center fielder Shane Victorino to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for right-handed reliever Josh Lindblom and starting pitching prospect Ethan Martin, according to USA Today. 

Victorino, 31, was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers as a Rule 5 pick before the 2005 season. During his time in Philadelphia, Victorino amassed three Gold Gloves and made two All-Star Game appearances. He’s got a .277 career batting average with 88 home runs and a .776 OPS and will likely play left field for the Dodgers.

The 25-year-old Lindblom is in the midst of his first full major league season, though he made 27 appearances last year. He’s a good option for the Phillies as a possible set-up man or as a middle reliever. On the season, Lindblom’s got a 3.02 ERA, 43 strikeouts, and a 1.26 WHIP.

Martin, a right-handed pitcher, came in ranked as the 17th-best prospect in the Dodgers’ system before the season according to Baseball America. He’s got the potential to be a number two starter in the major leagues, but he hasn’t yet harnessed that potential. The Dodgers’ first pick in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, Martin has four pitches: a fastball that can hit as high as 98 miles per hour (mph), a curveball with bite yet it’s inconsistent, a slider that sits in the 82-84 mph range, and a changeup that ranges from 84-86 mph.

The biggest issue with Martin is his mechanics. He tends to rush his delivery and can’t keep his form going each time out on the mound. Consistency is his worst problem, but if he can ever get his mechanics down, everything should work out for him.

So now, the Phillies have officially begun the fire sale. Domonic Brown is on his way to Washington, D.C. for tonight’s game. And the Phillies will get a reliever they hope will ease their bullpen problems, along with a pitching prospect who’s still got promise. The Dodgers get a better left field option than what they currently have now, and Victorino should be able to help them make a push for an NL West division title.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Value Trades for the Phils to Consider at Deadline

With the trade deadline just hours away, if deals are going to happen for the Philadelphia Phillies, they’re going to happen today.

The thought that the Phillies will sell surely wasn’t one that came into fans’ minds before the season. The Phils had gone out and signed Jonathan Papelbon to give themselves a bona fide closer. They bolstered their bench by bringing in Jim Thome, Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix. The bullpen also saw Chad Qualls come to town. With a better bench and bullpen, everything should have gone according to plan. Right?

Wrong. The Phillies, with a record of 45-57, sit in dead last in the NL East by a 16.5 game margin. And after being swept by the Atlanta Braves this past weekend, the Phils’ chances of making the Wild Card diminished as well, and with the sweep the Phillies sit 13 games out of the playoffs.

Simply put, all hope for a postseason run and a chance to defend their five consecutive NL East division titles has vanished. The Phillies are sellers this year, no getting around it.

Among the Phillies players on the block are Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, Joe Blanton, Juan Pierre, Ty Wigginton and possibly Cliff Lee. Some of those names will be playing for different teams come 4 p.m. tomorrow, whereas others will be remaining in Philly for the remainder of the season.

Who the Phillies ship out of town will all depend on the return the Phillies can get in said trades. They’ll obviously only do what benefits them. If a trade betters the other team, fine, but if it doesn’t improve the Phillies, you can bet that the trade won’t get done. That’s logical, of course.

A week ago I wrote a slideshow that gave trades the Phillies could make should they go into all-out sell mode. Since then, however, rumors have changed, and this slideshow will reflect the newest, updated rumors. Additionally, the slideshow will also focus on the Phillies making “value trades,” or trades that will be worthwhile for the Phillies. They’ll be fair to the other team as well so the deal would logically get done, but the Phillies will obviously rake the benefits, too.

Enjoy the read and the trade deadline!

*Prospect rankings are from the 2012 Baseball America Prospect Handbook, which ranked teams’ top prospects before the season.

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Philadelphia Phillies Trade Rumors: Swept by Braves, Fire Sale Next?

Now that the Philadelphia Phillies have been swept by the NL Wild Card-leading and division-rival Atlanta Braves, it’s almost safe to say that all hope of a possible postseason run for the Fightins has been lost. Any glimmer of hope that may have still existed after the Phils’ four consecutive comeback wins early last week has been erased thanks to the Braves.

The Phillies now sit at 45-57 and are a whopping 16.5 games behind the NL East leaders, the Washington Nationals. The Braves, who occupy one of two NL Wild Card spots, have that lead over the Phillies by 12.5 games.

Had the Phillies swept the series, the lead would have narrowed to just 6.5 games. With two wins, it would have been 8.5 games. And even if they managed one win, the gap wouldn’t be as terrible at 10.5 games. But with the sweep, the Phillies are almost surefire bets to miss the postseason for the first time since they began their five consecutive NL East division title run in 2007.

With the Braves’ sweep coming off a sweep by the Phillies themselves over the Milwaukee Brewers, trade rumors involving many of the Phillies’ players should not only begin to heat up, but intensify and materialize into actual trades. According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the Phillies very well could be one of the deadline’s top sellers:

Team that has a chance to be the most active seller in next two days: The Phillies. They’ve prepared a lot of groundwork for possible deals.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 30, 2012

Word also comes from ESPN’s Jayson Stark that the Phillies could make as many as two or three trades before the 4:00 p.m. deadline on Tuesday, July 31:

#Phillies still haven’t lit the sale lamp. But teams they’ve been talking to believe they could make 2-3 deals in next 46 hours.

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) July 29, 2012

Now that some of the baseball world’s top reporters are saying it’s so, is it so? Chances are, yes, And even though reporters can be wrong, it’s not expected that they are. Players will be traded.

Last week, I wrote about fire sale trades the Phillies could make should such a situation arise. Now that said situation is now the status quo, perhaps some of these trades will be completed. Well, maybe not exactly with what I predicted. But the players the Phillies could trade in that slideshow are on par with reality, at least.

Players such as Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, Joe Blanton, Juan Pierre and possibly even Cliff Lee could be on the move in the next day and a half. Some will be gone. Others will stay. Or maybe all or none of those players are dealt. But is it viable to believe that the Phillies will sell? You bet it is.

Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com wrote that the Phillies will consider trades now that they’re more than likely out of contention. Is there reason to believe Salisbury? Absolutely. He has the ability to interview top Phillies front office personnel, including GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. I don’t.

The next day or so should be flooded with Phillies trade rumors and trades that will come to fruition now that the team is basically down and out. Funny to think that back in spring training, the thought was that the Phillies might trade for a player. Now, they’re trading their players away. Go figure.

Who will stay? Who will go? Only time will tell.

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Philadelphia Phillies Trade Rumors: Is Quintin Berry a Possible Sleeper Target?

Approximately 48 hours remain between now and the trade deadline on Tuesday, July 31. Within the next two days, a flurry of rumors and trades will continue to swarm the baseball world, and until 4:00 p.m. strikes Tuesday, GMs around baseball will resume their conversations and trade talks will progress.

Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. is bound to have many phone calls come his way. With the Phillies in last place in the NL East and likely sellers this year, players such as Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, Joe Blanton and possibly even Cliff Lee could be available in trades. Rumors have already mentioned each of those four players, and more are sure to come before Tuesday.

As I said, the Phillies are expected to sell this year. But what if they made a surprise move as buyers?

Earlier last week, I explored the possibility of the Phillies making a trade for the San Diego Padres‘ Chase Headley. The prospects the Phils would give up to get Headley likely weren’t realistically enough to get him in a deal, but the idea is still one I think the Phillies will consider.

This time, I’m suggesting another trade the Phillies could make, one they might not have to give up as much for—Quintin Berry of the Detroit Tigers. He’s not necessarily available, but it could be an interesting situation for both the Tigers and Phillies. Please allow me to explain.

Some of you may be wondering who Berry is, whereas others of you may know his entire history. For the sake of this article, I’ll tell you a bit about Berry.

The 27-year-old outfielder started out as a prospect in the Phillies’ system after being a fifth-round pick in the 2006 First Year Player Draft. He remained in the Phils’ system until the team placed him on waivers in 2010, and the Padres took him from the Phillies’ farm system.

At the 2010 Winter Meetings, Berry was taken in the Rule 5 Draft by the Mets, who released him on the first of April. Berry spent 2011 with the Cincinnati Reds, then was granted free agency and hooked on with the Tigers, where he’s now a backup outfielder.

Berry was called up by the Tigers when their center fielder, Austin Jackson, hit the DL in late May. Since then, he’s stuck, and while he hasn’t been the Tigers’ everyday starter since Jackson returned on June 8, he’s hit .286 on the season and his OBP is .366.

While his power isn’t great, he’s got leadoff hitter potential. And although his defense is far from spectacular—Berry has a -4.6 UZR/150—he’s still not a bad ballplayer.

The Tigers, who lack a formidable utility player, could have interest in the Phillies’ Ty Wigginton. While Wigginton is notably a gaping hole defensively, he could give players like Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder the day off if necessary. He could also play a corner outfield spot every now and then.

Wigginton is a right-handed slightly-power bat as well, and while the Tigers don’t lack righty bats, they aren’t stocked with them, either.

With Andy Dirks due off the DL soon, Berry’s role will be reduced, if not defunct. He would be a valuable asset to a team like the Phillies, as either a Victorino replacement or simply as a bench outfielder.

The Tigers could get a solid utility option to play multiple positions and can hit relatively well. This trade would work out for both teams, but will it happen?

We’ll know that in a matter of hours.

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