6 Early Predictions for Philadelphia Phillies’ 2013 Offseason

The 2013 season has been a lost cause for the Philadelphia Phillies. Sitting at 68-78, the team is out of division title contention and is just six losses away from elimination from a potential wild card.

There have been many ups and downs for the Phillies in 2013. Charlie Manuel’s dismissal definitely comes to mind as a low point, as does the team’s lack of a committed stance at the July 31 trade deadline. Some of the high points have been the emergence of Domonic Brown as an All-Star and a better winning percentage under interim manager Ryne Sandberg than under Manuel on the season.

Nevertheless, the year has been painful to watch, and it would have been much more had the team had loftier expectations. At this point, fans and the team alike await the merciful coming of the offseason, giving the players a chance to hit the reset button for 2014 in addition to an opportunity to bolster the roster.

While it’s too early to count on Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. making any specific moves, it’s not too early to speculate upon what he might do. Here’s six early predictions for the Phillies’ upcoming offseason.

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Philadelphia Phillies Players Who Must Be Let Go This Offseason

Following every major league season, each team has a select number of players either eligible for arbitration or free agency. For the Philadelphia Phillies, this is no exception. With 12 arbitration-eligible players this offseason and a handful of free agents to boot, the upcoming offseason will be one of the most transaction-heavy and intriguing in Phillies history.

As is the case with any offseason, there are certain types of moves that can be made. In the case of the arbitration-eligible player, he can be tendered a contract to return for at least one more season, or he can be non-tendered and hit the open market before hitting six years of MLB service time. Options of all sorts can also be declined, whether on the side of the player, team or both parties. Vesting options with unmet requirements can also render players free agents.

If a player is a free agent, he can be signed to a new contract or sign one with another team. Trades can also occur, as can designations for assignment, the latter of which usually happens when the 40-man roster is being trimmed down and revised before the Rule 5 Draft.

The Phillies have at least one or two players in each category listed in the above paragraph, but not all of them are definitely goners. Only a select few are virtual locks to be wearing another team’s uniform next year—or no one’s at all. Here’s the list of Phillies players who must be let go this offseason, whether by non-tendering, walking in free agency or via trade.

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Philadelphia Phillies Should Remain Cautious Despite Roy Halladay’s Solid Return

Following an 18-inning contest that ran seven hours and six minutes and saw the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks use a combined 20 pitchers, both teams were short on sleep and pitching depth heading into Sunday’s series finale.

The D’backs had just enough depth to ensure that they wouldn’t have to delve into their starting rotation to finish off their 12-7 win. 

On the other hand, the Phillies saw their starter in Saturday’s game, Ethan Martin, go just two-thirds of an inning, so they had to rely on Tyler Cloyd in five of the nine extra innings. Cloyd pitched well, allowing no runs, though he did walk five batters.

However, Cloyd‘s walk count isn’t the full concern here. Rather, it’s that he was supposed to start in Sunday’s game. He ended up starting, though it wasn’t in the mold that was expected.

He couldn’t start after throwing 72 pitches just hours earlier, so the Phillies had to do the unthinkable: bring back Roy Halladay even though he was scheduled for another rehab start in Double-A. 

The move came with some concern, and rightfully so.

Although he hadn’t been roughed up in his two previous rehab starts, Halladay wasn’t exactly masterful either. In his second, more recent outing, Doc only surrendered two runs (one earned), but he also allowed seven hits and walked three batters.

Promoting Halladay off that kind of line wasn’t ideal, but then again, neither was playing the longest game in team history the night before. With no better options, Halladay made a triumphant return to the majors and started for the Phillies the first time since May 5. 

He wasn’t lights-out, striking out just two hitters and walking the same amount. Only 55 of his 94 pitches were for strikes. Doc also gave up two earned runs, but would’ve surrendered four if not for Roger Bernadina’s heroics at the center field wall that saved what would have been a game-tying two-run homer.

Halladay walked off the mound after six innings with a 9-2 lead behind him and received a standing ovation. Seeing Doc pitch the kind of game he did was encouraging, as was his fastball velocity, which was tweeted by MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki:

 

Roy Halladay’s afternoon is finished: 6 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 k. He threw 94 pitches (55 strikes). Hit 89 mph with fastball.

— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) August 25, 2013

 

Despite Halladay’s successful resurgence at the major league level, the Phillies should be cautious with their former ace. One start does not mean much in terms of performance, and though Doc’s start did come against a team above .500, there are far better teams in the majors. 

What may get lost in the lights of Doc’s decent start was that the Phillies still don’t think he is ready to return. 

While Halladay felt he was ready to return to the bigs after his last rehab start at Low-A Lakewood, the front office didn’t concur with their pitcher’s self-analysis and would have maintained that opinion had they not run out of options.

Halladay should feel confident since the Phillies didn’t view Adam Morgan or David Buchanan as superior options for a spot start despite their absence on the 40-man roster. In reality, though, Doc probably should have been given another chance in the minors before coming back to Philadelphia.

One start is great for Halladay, and fans should be thrilled to see him pitching again. But, unless Doc gets hurt again, he’s here to stay in the majors, regardless of whether he’s ready or not. 

Nevertheless, Doc is back, and he should go to sleep well tonight.

But the Phillies should not.

I’m willing to give Halladay the benefit of the doubt for at least another start, but it isn’t yet safe to say that Doc is truly back to his good old self. Give him some time and we’ll have a complete report, but for now, take Halladay’s success with a grain of salt and be prepared in case things blow up in the near future.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Pettibone Shutdown Means Gonzalez Must Be Signed

Man, the list of injuries for the Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff just keeps on growing.

Setup man Mike Adams and Michael Stutes have both seen extensive time on the disabled list this season due to bicep tendinitis, with the former ruled out until spring training next year. Jeremy Horst has been injured for quite some time with a left elbow strain. Fellow left-hander Joe Savery has also experienced left elbow stiffness, but as of August 22, he is the only one embarking on a rehab assignment, according to MLB.com.

As for the rotation, Roy Halladay is on track to return soon, as he has a third rehab start on Sunday, August 25.

However, the news isn’t as great for the Phillies’ other injured starting pitchers. Southpaw John Lannan has been ruled out for the rest of the season and will likely require surgery for a partially torn patellar tendon, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki.

Even Jonathan Pettibone, who had been on pace for a return sometime soon, has experienced a setback. Kevin Cooney of the Bucks County Courier Times tweeted the following in the later hours of August 22:

 

Sounds like Pettibone season is over. Had more inflammation in shoulder. Being shut down

— Kevin Cooney (@KevinCooney) August 23, 2013

Such news is devastating for a Phillies pitching staff already light on depth. Although Halladay’s return is likely, it is still questionable whether the team will truly bring him back to the majors if his command and velocity do not improve.

Last time out against Low-A competition, Halladay threw 90 pitches, but only 52 of them were strikes. He allowed seven hits, walked three batters and at one point threw nine pitches in a row for balls. While he topped out at 89 miles per hour on his fastball, Halladay’s heater averaged just 87 mph on the radar gun.

Until Halladay returns, the only guaranteed starting pitchers in the Phillies rotation are lefties Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels and right-handers Kyle Kendrick and Ethan Martin. Tyler Cloyd likely remains the favorite for the fifth starter job until Halladay returns or someone else steps in, though his five earned runs in his start against the Colorado Rockies on August 20 doesn’t help his case.

I recently wrote an article which previewed some prospects the Phillies might call upon come September when rosters expand to include the 40-man. The list was highlighted by left-hander Adam Morgan and also included starter David Buchanan.

The most important name in that slideshow was not a current Phillies prospect, though. Rather, it’s Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, the 26-year-old Cuban superstar whom the Phillies have yet to sign.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reported on July 26 that Gonzalez had agreed to a six-year, $48 million contract with the Phillies, but today’s date is August 23, and no deal has been reached as of yet.

At first it was believed that the only obstacle to a deal was a visa issue, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

With more time came more news concerning the lack of news, and as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reported back on August 6, the contract may not happen altogether due to possible concerns over the pitcher’s elbow, which received surgery at some point to remove bone chips. Then came an update on August 18 which basically said that there was nothing new to report, but does no news mean good news?

What the August 18 update did not rule out was a renegotiation of a contract for Gonzalez. Although the severity of the purported elbow concern is unknown, it has obviously been enough to deter the Phillies from inking the Cuban to a contract. Had Gonzalez been signed, he might have already made his major league debut by now. Instead, Phillies fans and media alike have played the waiting game, but it’s gotten to the point where the wait has been too long without any definitive news.

Perhaps the Phillies and Gonzalez are negotiating a less expensive contract with some injury clauses concerning the $11 million vesting option for a seventh year on the original contract. At the same time, the two sides may very well not have held any sort of negotiation session, and there’s a chance that Gonzalez and the Phillies may never have a deal in place at all.

Nevertheless, the point is simple: Even if it takes only a slight decrease in salary, the Phillies must sign Gonzalez in order to ensure the safety of their rotation going forward.

Unless the injury is worse than just bone chips, such an ailment should not be holding up negotiations this long unless one of the two sides is unwilling to compromise. Cole Hamels had bone chips removed from his pitching elbow in 2011 and returned with no problems. Reliever Scott Eyre also had the same issue, yet pitched well upon return.

Granted, both pitchers spent enough time within the Phillies organization for the front office and doctors to know them and their injury histories, but bone chips by themselves have not proven to derail any pitcher’s career, let alone a contract. Just take a look at Hamels’ six-year, $144 million contract extension inked last July as an example.

Gonzalez’s presence on the Phillies is incredibly important for the team’s future success. With Halladay unlikely to return after this season and Kyle Kendrick potentially gone after 2014, the Phillies lack any sort of dependable right-handed starting pitcher aside from arguably Pettibone. Martin could stick in the rotation if necessary, though Baseball America’s 2013 Prospect Handbook notes that he will probably end up in the bullpen when all’s said and done.

Considering that the Phillies will be entering a retooling phase at the minimum heading into 2014, they need all the help they can get at any position possible.

Gonzalez will not only impact the Phillies next year, but if the deal remains at six years, he’ll be around for years to come. In what will likely be losing seasons for a few years going forward, chances are that the Phillies won’t be spending huge amounts of money in free agency or sacrificing the future in the form of prospects in a trade.

Taking that into consideration, if the Phillies don’t sign Gonzalez, their rotation will be stockpiled with left-handers and two right-handers at most. Gonzalez would not only provide additional depth from the right side, he’d also be the best of the bunch within the Phillies organization, and that’s too big of an opportunity for them to pass up.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Is Ryne Sandberg the Reason for Recent Offensive Surge?

It’s been a week or so now since longtime Philadelphia Phillies manager Charlie Manuel was fired and interim manager Ryne Sandberg took over the reins. In that time, the Phillies have played seven games, winning four of them.

For those of you counting, those four wins for Sandberg in a week are more than the three wins Manuel had in the first two-plus weeks of August.

After having to withstand the wrath of an incredibly hot Zack Greinke and facing the NL Cy Young Award front-runner Clayton Kershaw in back-to-back shutout losses, the Phillies managed to notch a walk-off win in the bottom of the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers last Sunday, August 18. Granted, it came on a pair of errors by Hanley Ramirez, but a win’s a win, and it gave Sandberg the first one in his major league managerial career.

At the time, that win was viewed as somewhat of an anomaly.

After all, since June 22, the Dodgers had gone 42-8 in their last 50 games following that contest, whereas the Phillies have gone 21-31 dating back to the same date. Most of those 21 wins had come before the All-Star break, for the Phillies have barely managed to win any games since the Midsummer Classic.

Sandberg‘s second managerial series would come against the Colorado Rockies in the form of a four-game set. Although they boast a road record comparable to that of the Phillies, the Rockies have some potent hitters in their lineup, namely Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Cuddyer and Wilin Rosario. All three inflicted serious damage over the course of the series, with Rosario belting three home runs and Tulowitzki two for himself.

However, the Rockies’ offensive powerhouse wasn’t enough to trump the Phillies for once.

For the first time in ages, the Phillies managed to hit and drive in runs. In the first game of the series, the Phillies won 5-4, giving them back-to-back games for the first time since mid-July. Though after Colorado handed them a 5-3 loss on Tuesday, August 20, it looked as though reality had set back in.

Mysteriously enough, the Phillies continued to pile on runs and keep games competitive. Even in times when they didn’t in the final two games of the series, such as when Kyle Kendrick blew a 1-1 tie into a 4-1 Rockies lead, the Phillies somehow came back to win the ballgame in walk-off fashion 5-4. They also won thanks to Michael Young’s ninth-inning heroics the night before, 4-3.

Although winning’s always fun, especially when three games out of four went the Phillies’ way, the series held more significance than meets the eye. In fact, the Phillies scored at least three runs in all four contests, marking the first time they had done so since July 6 through July 9. It had been a month and a half since the Phillies stitched together a streak of consistent run production, yet they may not be done just yet.

The Phillies’ ability to score runs as of late is remarkable enough, but considering that Manuel had been unable to muster such an offensive push out of the team, it’s worth wondering: Is new manager Sandberg the cause of the Phillies’ recent offensive uptick?

On paper, it’s difficult to tell. However, with further analysis, it looks as though some habits are being broken. On normal nights in the ninth inning with Manuel at the helm, the Phillies lost more often than they won, though Jonathan Papelbon can be blamed for that some of the time.

But in the Phillies’ four wins so far under Sandberg, three of them have been of the walk-off variety. That means that roughly a third of the Phillies’ 10 walk-off wins this year have come under Sandberg, and that’s no small feat.

Additionally, Sandberg has seemingly injected some energy into the players themselves. 

Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News wrote about how Sandberg wants to see a different approach from Rollins as long as he’s in the leadoff position in his batting order. Essentially, that means that Rollins should focus on hitting balls on the ground and utilizing his speed on the basepaths.

While it may have taken a few games, Rollins has a hit in each of his past two games, including a clutch double in the ninth inning which otherwise might have been a single for the Phillies shortstop. J-Roll was clearly hustling around the bases, and what’s more is that he stole third base on the first pitch of the next at-bat. Had he not done so, the dynamic of the inning would have drastically changed, and Rollins might not have scored at all.

Michael Young has also come up in a big way in recent games, and Darin Ruf has seven August home runs now, which is tied for sixth in the majors. Even Carlos Ruiz, whose season seemed to be written off completely, has pieced together a .476 batting average since Sandberg‘s installment as manager.

Simply put, Philadelphia’s position players are starting to make things matter again, albeit at a time when they really don’t.

Nevertheless, Sandberg has to be given at least some credit for the Phillies’ increase in runs and overall offensive production. Maybe it’s just coincidence; then again, maybe not.

Sandberg has already accomplished some things Manuel could not do any longer in his final days as Phillies manager. Most importantly, Sandberg has proved that the baton did need to be passed on for the Phillies to improve, and with continued offensive production, he could be inching closer to having the interim tag removed from his job title after the season.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

5 Prospects Philadelphia Phillies Will Promote in September

To say the least, it’s been a rough season for the Philadelphia Phillies. They sit at 56-70, 14 games under the .500 mark. Last Friday, their longtime and all-time winningest manager, Charlie Manuel, was controversially fired. A team that might have had one final shot at the postseason before a few years of rebuilding showed that the window has closed and is locked shut until further notice.

Such times can bring angst to the fanbase, and for a team like the Phillies, their fanbase isn’t exactly new to the concept of losing. The mid-1990s into the early 2000s brought plenty of losing seasons, which later became winning seasons—albeit still seasons without playoffs. Keep in mind that it took 14 years for the Phillies even to make it to the postseason after their 1993 World Series appearance.

Times of losing can also provide a glimpse into the future and what’s to come. Ryne Sandberg took over for Manuel as the Phillies’ interim manager, and with a good performance, he could end up being the Phils’ skipper for the foreseeable future. Prospects who otherwise would have to stall in the minors get their chance to show what they’ve got in the majors, for the games don’t tend to matter all that much to the major league squad. It’s essentially late-summer spring training, but with actual major league experience against major league teams.

While the Phillies lack any top-notch prospects ready to burst onto the scene, they do possess some quality minor league talent who could serve as fill-ins in 2014 and beyond. Some like Cody Asche and Ethan Martin have already climbed up to the majors. Others who have taken strides this season will be rewarded with a September call-up when rosters expand to include the remainder of players on the 40-man roster. Even those who may not currently be on the 40-man roster will be added before September 1 in order to make a first impression and earn, at the very least, an invite to major league spring training in February 2014.

With little else to play for, the Phillies will be giving many minor leaguers a shot at proving they belong in the majors. Here’s five prime candidates who could receive a September call-up from the minors to join the Phillies’ big league squad.

*All prospect rankings and information courtesy of Baseball America’s 2013 Prospect Handbook unless otherwise noted. All minor league statistics courtesy of MiLB.com.

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Charlie Manuel’s 4 Most Boneheaded Moves of the 2013 Season

Since his tenure as Philadelphia Phillies manager commenced in 2005, Charlie Manuel has seen his share of ups and downs. Fortunately for him and the Phillies, the majority of Manuel’s experiences have been positive, though as of late the opposite couldn’t be truer.

Over the last two seasons, Manuel and the Phillies have slid from being the best in baseball to the laughing stock of the league. In 2012, most of the Phillies’ woes could be attributed to the injuries of cornerstone players such as Roy Halladay, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. While all three of those players have spent some amount of time on the disabled list in 2013 as well, that alone cannot be blamed for the lack of success this season.

Last year, multiple unlucky events led to the Phillies’ first non-winning season in over a decade. This year, however, there are two obvious names to take the hit. One is Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. for his mismanagement of the team’s roster, both in the offseason and at this year’s trade deadline. The other is Manuel himself.

From playing hitters in the wrong spots of the lineup to simply allowing players to go about their own business unmanaged, Manuel has gone from franchise hero to lame duck in a short period of time.

He’s made some mistakes that have cost the Phillies any remaining chances they’ve had in 2013 following Amaro’s inactivity. While not everything the players do should be blamed on Manuel, it is the manager’s job to provide an explanation for his team’s errors. And Manuel has not done that.

Don’t get me wrong, Manuel should be revered by all Phillies fans for leading the team in all-time managerial wins and to its second World Series title in 2008. I’m not suggesting he should be criticized solely for his miscues this season. Nevertheless, there have been miscues, perhaps too many to identify them all.

In light of that, let’s take a look at Manuel’s top four mistakes managing the Phillies this season.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Grades for Every Player in July

This July has been one of the strangest months in recent history for the Philadelphia Phillies.

It’s involved one of the team’s best stretches all season—and also its worst. At the beginning of July, the Phillies went 9-4 leading up to the All-Star break, including a 10-game stretch that saw them go 7-3. However, the Phillies have mustered just two wins since play resumed and have lost eight straight, resulting in their ugly 11-12 record this month.

Heading into the final day of the month, heavier thoughts weigh down the minds of Phillies players, fans and front-office members.

Yes, it’s that time of year again: the MLB trade deadline.

By 4 p.m. ET July 31, the team could look relatively similar to how it looked when you woke up that morning—or it could look incredibly different. Players like Michael Young, Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon could find themselves packing their bags.

Meantime, until news of trades (or lack thereof) comes through, here’s something to take your mind off the deadline. Here are grades for the Phillies in the month of July.

 

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10 Realistic Trades Philadelphia Phillies Could Make at 2013 MLB Trade Deadline

It’s that time of year again, folks.

With the Philadelphia Phillies mired in a five-game losing streak and sitting at 49-53, all previous indications that the team would be buyers following a 7-3 road trip leading up to the All-Star break could be for naught if they lose the series against the Detroit Tigers this weekend.

Phillies fans need something positive after their team just got swept by the best team in the majors, the St. Louis Cardinals.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. has some serious thinking to do. Should he sell off the team’s list of veterans that includes fan favorites Carlos Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins and even Chase Utley? Should Amaro consider offers for closer Jonathan Papelbon and left-handed ace Cliff Lee? Should he just trade the one guy who’s replaceable in Michael Young?

Or should Amaro forget about selling altogether and just look to acquire a bullpen piece and an outfielder?

It’s these kinds of questions that linger within the Phillies front office. These questions, however, must be answered within the next couple of days. There’s less than a week to go until the July 31 trade deadline, and the longer the Phillies wait to declare their stance, the less leverage they will have in trades they make in the next five days, whether as buyers or sellers.

Even though ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweeted as recently as July 24—two days ago—that he talked to a team’s executive who said the Phillies are definitely buyers, their losing streak isn’t helping cement that position. Until the Phillies declare one way or the other—as in make a trade—their approach will remain as unclear now as it has been for the past month.

Consequently, this slideshow will focus on both aspects of the trading spectrum, first beginning with selling options, and then with potential acquisitions. Some options will be more realistic than others, though all should be realistic enough to prevent any GM from immediately hanging up the phone. Lastly, some of the following trade scenarios are based upon rumors, while others are just speculation.

And please don’t forget that the purpose of this is not that the Phillies make all of these trades, but that any one of them could be a feasible deal.

Without further ado, here is my third edition of 10 trades the Phillies should consider at the trade deadline.

*All prospect rankings and commentary are courtesy of Baseball America’s 2013 Prospect Handbook unless otherwise noted. All contract information courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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The One Trade Deadline Deal Philadelphia Phillies Have to Make

With just over a week to go before MLB‘s July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, teams that haven’t already determined their stance for the coming week—either as a buyer or seller—are beginning to do just that.

For the most part, teams out of playoff contention will be sellers, while teams in the thick of the hunt for October tend to be buyers. Depending on who you talk to, the Philadelphia Phillies are mired in one position or the other—with a record continually hovering around .500, their chances and stance at this year’s trade deadline remains vague.

The only problem is, the Phillies are as unsure of their own stance as the media and fans are when reflecting upon it. Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. is still unsure of which route to go within the next week.

Should the Phillies look to buy, which would encompass pursuing a reliever or two and/or an outfielder, either of whom would be under team control for the next few years? Or should they look to trade off players with free agency looming after the season, such as Michael Young or fan favorites Carlos Ruiz and Chase Utley?

Regardless of whether they buy or sell, the Phillies must make a trade at this year’s deadline. It’s an opportunity for them to improve the team in some way, shape or form, whether for the present or future.

If the Phillies do buy, the logical first choice is to pursue a top bullpen arm under team control for the foreseeable future. Someone along the likes of John Axford of the Milwaukee Brewers would be a nice fit to be the Phillies’ long-term setup man, but as Amaro noted in the aforementioned article, teams want players in return on the 25-man roster, players Amaro isn’t willing to trade.

Should the Phillies go the selling route, the obvious name to deal is Michael Young. He’s received plenty of trade interest, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. Rosenthal notes that the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees comprise a total of 12 or so teams that have reached out to the Phillies about Young. Chris Roling of Fansided.com reports that the Cincinnati Reds also hold interest in the Phillies third baseman.

There’s no clear-cut answer as to with whom the Phillies should trade Michael Young. And if this was an article about the one player the Phillies must trade, Young would be that guy. But he’s not part of the one trade the Phillies must make. It’s much simpler than that.

Among other potential trade chips the Phillies possess are ace Cliff Lee and closer Jonathan Papelbon. Lee has been tossed around in trade rumors for ages now, although WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford tweeted the following when he asked Lee at the All-Star Game about the possibility of being traded again:

Cliff Lee on potential trade: ‘As far as I know, it’s not going to happen’

— Rob Bradford (@bradfo) July 15, 2013

That leaves Jonathan Papelbon as a viable trade chip, and there is one dead-on match with the Phillies in a trade: the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have one of baseball’s best teams on paper, but they have dealt with ninth inning woes for most of the season and for a good portion of 2012. They need a bona fide closer, which Papelbon is when he’s at his best.

Unfortunately for both Papelbon and the Phillies, he hasn’t been anything close to his best in recent weeks. After a dominant April and May, Papelbon began to falter as June and July rolled around. While he has a solid 20 saves on the season, he’s also got five blown saves to his name, which is among the worst among not only National League closers, but closers around the majors as well.

His ERA remains a decent 2.27 and his WHIP stands at 0.88, but with an inability to pitch to standard in non-save situations in addition to the blown saves tally, Papelbon may not be as appealing to other teams as he was in April or May.

And let’s not forget that he’s due a minimum of almost $35 million over the next two and a half years, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

However, a team like the Tigers is truly desperate for a ninth inning solution, but ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that they may have another man in mind for their closer role:

 

There is some hope in the Tigers’ organization that when the dust settles, they will be the team that lands Francisco Rodriguez. We’ll see.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 20, 2013

 

Nevertheless, the fit is there. The Tigers have emerged into a big market team with the need for talent to boot. Papelbon fits that bill. And with a payroll that’s capable of taking on most, if not all, of Papelbon’s contract, the Phillies could find themselves a decent taker without having to eat much salary, if any.

Concerning the potential return in such a deal, the Phillies may make out better with quality over quantity due to Papelbon’s contract.

The Tigers have three top prospects that would interest the Phillies: Nick Castellanos, Avisail Garcia and Bruce Rondon. All three entered the 2013 season among Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list, with Castellanos moving up from baseball’s 21st-best to 15th-best prospect in the minors after Baseball America’s Midseason Top 50 update.

In my opinion, the Phillies could make out in two different ways here. The first option would be to acquire just Castellanos. I don’t believe that, if the Phillies want Castellanos, they can receive anything more in return. If they do, it’s a steal. Even so, Castellanos by himself would be a nice get.

A third baseman by trade, Castellanos has played in left field for most of 2013 since Miguel Cabrera is entrenched at the hot corner and the Tigers lack a surefire solution in left. Avisail Garcia could find himself in one of the corner outfield spots when all’s said and done, but for now, Castellanos is the Tigers’ left fielder of the future.

For the Tigers, that may not be such a bad thing. George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press wrote that Castellanos’ outfield instincts are starting to come together and that he’s made a lot of progress on the defensive side of the ball.

Offensively, Castellanos has always been a stud, and that hasn’t changed in 2013. Spending the entire year at Triple-A, Castellanos has batted .284 with an .805 OPS and has hit 12 home runs along with 52 RBI, all in 102 games. Those are pretty good numbers, especially considering that he’s as close to the majors as he’ll be without actually playing for Detroit.

If the Phillies acquired Castellanos, they would have a slight conundrum on their hands. Castellanos would theoretically take over left field duties, but Domonic Brown is there and would have to move back to right field, which may not be best for his positive development. Third base would be vacant after the season, but Cody Asche and breakout prospect Maikel Franco are both entrenched there.

This would mean that either Brown, Castellanos, or Asche and/or Franco would have to switch positions, and that isn’t an ideal situation for the Phillies organization to find themselves.

The other option that’s probably more realistic is if the Phillies acquired Garcia and Rondon, and it may make sense for multiple reasons. For starters, the Phillies seek a major league ready outfielder under team control for years to come.

Garcia fits that bill, though he is still a work in progress at the major league level. As for Rondon, he would slide in sooner or later to the closer’s role, and with a fastball that easily hits 100 miles per hour, he could become a superstar closer for the Phillies within the next couple of years.

Castellanos may be more appealing and would be a fantastic offensive weapon for the Phillies to possess for six-plus years.

As for Garcia and Rondon, the tandem would fill the two holes the Phillies have most. Whether or not they believe that they can make a trade with the Tigers for any of these three players is a different story in and of itself, but either return would be sensible for a team lacking in blue chip prospect depth.

What’s holding the Phillies back is their inability to determine if they should buy or sell by next Wednesday, July 31.

Their upcoming road series against the St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers should help clear up the fog shielding the answer to the Phillies’ situation (and if I had to guess, the Phillies will be selling by the end of their nine-game road trip).

But regardless of what happens within the next week, the Phillies must absolutely pursue and strike a deal with the Tigers involving Jonathan Papelbon and any of Nick Castellanos, Avisail Garcia and Bruce Rondon.

It’s a trade that makes sense for both teams for the present and future, and a deal that could position both teams for success, whether in 2013 or beyond.

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