Eight Philadelphia Phillies Stats We Wouldn’t Have Believed Two Months Ago

Only July 21st of this year, the Philadelphia Phillies lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in St. Louis. The loss was the sixth in seven games for the Phils, and dropped the team to just two games over .500 and 7.0 games behind the Braves in the NL East.

The season looked to be all but over for the Phils, who weren’t playing particularly well in any facet of the game.

Now, on September 9th, less than two months later, the Phillies have the best record in the National League.

Here is a look at some stats from during that period that we just wouldn’t have believed on that July night when we thought our season was over.

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Is Ryan Howard One of the Greatest Run Producers in Baseball History?

One of the reasons, if not the reason, I got into baseball writing was to challenge conventional wisdom. Challenging conventional wisdom is what we learned from Bill James and from Billy Beane, and it is the reason we tend to speak unfavorably of Joe Morgan.

Since moving to Philadelphia, one bit of local conventional wisdom I have been quick to challenge has been the notion that Ryan Howard is one of the greatest run producers of all time. This hasn’t made me incredibly popular amongst my local readers and fellow writers (Jamie Ambler?), but it is a notion to which I have never warmed.

Are You Saying Ryan Howard isn’t a Good RBI Guy?

There can be no doubt in that during the last five baseball seasons, Ryan Howard has established himself as one of the premier RBI men in Major League Baseball. Howard has led the National League in RBI in three of the last four seasons and the only reason he didn’t lead the league in 2007 was because Matt Holliday won the RBI crown in a season-ending tiebreaker game with San Diego.

(By the way, counting one-game playoffs to be regular season games: There’s a rule worth revisiting.)

How unique is Howard’s performance over this period? Consider the following:

Since the advent of the American League in 1901, only six players in Major League Baseball have led their league in RBI’s three years in a row: Ty Cobb (1907-1909), Babe Ruth (1919-1921), Rogers Hornsby (1920-1922), Joe Medwick (1936-1938), George Foster (1976-1978), and Cecil Fielder (1990-1992).

If not for the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres finishing the 2007 season tied for second place in the NL West, Howard would have become the first player since 1901 to lead his league four years in a row; consider also that Howard only played 144 games in 2007, and you have to say “wow.”

So How Can You Say He Isn’t a Great Run Producer?

Nevertheless, given the potency of the Philadelphia Phillies lineup over that period and the general discrediting of the RBI as an indicator of value, however, I have been quick to discredit any sort of significance that has been placed upon Howard and his RBI totals.

After all, from a statistical perspective, Howard is not the best hitter in the National League; indeed, he is not really even the best hitting first baseman in the NL, and he may not even be in the top five.

And so my theory went thus: If you were to plug Albert Pujols or Adrian Gonzalez into the Phillies‘ lineup, not only would they easily lead the NL in RBI, but they may even set the National League record for RBI in a season.

This is not an unsupportable conclusion to reach, for Howard’s RBI have not been a one man show.

In 2006, when Howard first led the NL in runs driven in, Chase Utley led the league in runs with 132, and Jimmy Rollins didn’t finish too far behind with 127.

In 2007, Howard did not lead the NL but finished with an astounding 136 ribs nonetheless, and that season, J-Roll led the NL in runs scored with 139 while Utley and Aaron Rowand each scored over 100 runs.

In 2008, when Howard once again led the NL, the Phils had three guys score 100 runs, and when he did it again in 2009, they had four guys score 100 runs.

Doesn’t it seem like Pujols, Gonzalez, or any other elite hitter would be able to easily pace the National League in this category if they had the luxury of hitting behind Rollins, Utley, and company?

Good Point. Maybe Ryan Howard Isn’t Actually a Great Run Producer.

But then a funny thing happened: the 2010 season came along and challenged everything we know to be true.

Remember when we used to think that the Phillies had an “American League-style” offense? Not any more we don’t. We have become a team that plays a ton of one-run nail-biters.

Remember when we used to think that the Phillies were the type of team that won games with an elite offense in spite of their pitching? In 2010, our pitching has become our strong suit, and it is our offense that makes us want to look away.

As an aside, this is no reason for panic and no knock on this team. In fact, I believe that an argument could be that the 2010 team, with a simply dominant front three of Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt, is more well-equipped to win the playoffs than either the 2008 team or the 2009 team. But I digress.

Where was I? Right. The 2010 Phillies offense has been terrible.

And it isn’t really their fault; The 2010 Phillies have suffered injuries to every major offensive contributor other than Jayson Werth, who himself has had mysterious issues at the plate. If this team had been healthy, who knows what we would have looked like on offense.

Which brings me back to Ryan Howard, and my point.

Finally.

Hitting behind scrubs and subs this season, with an incredibly inconsistent and unspectacular lineup, and himself having suffered injuries and hitting slumps, Howard has nevertheless collected 95 RBI this season.

Which, somehow, puts him fourth in the National League and only five RBI behind league leader Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies. Somehow, in an injury-plagued and slump-marred season, Howard has only three fewer ribs than Pujols and four fewer than Joey Votto, both of whom are having significantly better overall seasons, and whom most watchers expect to be vying for the NL MVP.

Unlike previous seasons, you can’t discredit this one. You can’t point to Utley and Rollins and say that anyone would produce runs behind those guys. You can’t point to the Phillies offense and say it is designed to score runs. You can’t even really credit the Phils’ ballpark.

When all is said and done, the point is becoming undeniable: Ryan Howard is one of the greatest run producers of all time.

How conventional.

 

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Cliff Lee and Six Myths About the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies

Man, Ruben Amaro blew it.

He had Cliff Lee in his possession, and threw him away for nothing so that he could acquire Roy Halladay.

And now? The Philadelphia Phillies are screwed. Sure, they picked up Roy Oswalt, but he’s not Cliff Lee, and they had to give up J.A. Happ to get him.

Amaro could have had the best pitching staff in baseball, and he threw it all away.

He sucks.

Except…

It isn’t true. It is a myth. It is a Phillies’ myth, one that Phillies fans have latched onto, and one which they need to let go of.

Here is a look at six such myths.

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MLB History: Can Jayson Werth’s Batting Average With RISP Be Beat?

There are times when an idea, a theory, or a point needs to be made with extensive evidence, logic, and explanation. The idea/theory/point can be so subtle, so complex, so involved, that the importance of it is not immediately clear. Some ideas take a lifetime to understand.

I am not here today with such an idea.

This is my 150th article with Bleacher Report, and I am going to use it on a point that does not require much discussion. It is a point whose relevance, like the very truths referenced by our Founding Fathers in the Declaration of Independence, should be self-evident.

As of Wednesday night’s game, the Philadelphia Phillies’ Jayson Werth is batting .300 with a .913 OPS. With the bases empty, he is hitting .333 (including last night’s solo home run). With men on base, his batting average drops down to .255.

And with runners in scoring position, his batting average is an appalling .157.

Like I said, I won’t spend much time discussing this point, except to say the following: This is a historical number.

I have searched about 50 players from throughout baseball history for whom season splits are available on baseball-reference.com, and I have only found one player whose batting average with runners in scoring position dipped so low.

His name was Don Wert, and he played for the Detroit Tigers in 1968. He matched Werth’s current .157, but his overall batting average was .200. He was not exactly a great hitter.

There was also Curt Blefary, who hit .165 with runners in scoring position that same year, but also only hit .200 overall.

When it comes to guys who were actual hitters, who actually had decent full-season batting averages, forget it. You can’t find a player who has performed so poorly with runners in scoring position.

Luke Scott, for example, who is currently hitting .295, dips down to a shocking .186 with runners in scoring position, but even that is almost 30 points higher than Werth.

Mark Reynolds, on the other hand, is hitting .212 on the season, but with runners in scoring position, he’s hitting .271.

And there’s Rob Deer in 1991, when his RISP-AVG dipped down to .168. To put that in perspective, Deer hit .179 that season, so his average with runners in scoring position was only 11 points lower than his season average.

Werth’s is 143 points lower. Shocking.

So I put it to you, baseball fans.

Let’s find a real hitter (as in, not a guy who hit .200 for the season) whose batting average with runners in scoring position was as low or lower than Werth’s current .157, because it has to be out there. Just to set some parameters, let’s say that this player must have qualified for the batting title for the season, and must have hit at least .250 for the year.

We can do this.

And if you can find me a guy and you live in Philly, I’ll buy you a cheesesteak.

That you will have earned it is self-evident.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2010 MLB Playoff Race: Are the Philadelphia Phillies the New Yankees?

Everyone knows what it means: your team is flush with money and run by talentless slobs, who can make up for an inability to develop high quality talent within the farm system by simply buying other team’s high quality talent.  

You are the evil empire, pricing every other team in baseball out of the market for the best players in the game.  

You represent everything that is wrong with baseball and, what’s worse, your fans are front-runners, having forged artificial lifelong allegiances to the best players money can buy, acting as though they are somehow special for having taken part in a travesty.

We all know what is meant by the phrase “the new Yankees.”  The only question is: are the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies it?

If you ask a group of bitter Washington Nationals fans—because hey, who wouldn’t be bitter after five whole years of losing—then the answer is yes.

If you ask any reasonable baseball fan, the answer is: pah-lease.

Truth be told, the Yankees and the Phillies are not without their similarities. Chief amongst them, and contrary to popular opinion, both teams are in fact capable of “growing” their own talent.

Don’t forget, the core of the New York Yankees dynasty from 1995 to 2010 has been the Big Four–Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte—who all came up through the Yankees system and have led the team to five championships in 15 years.

Throw in recent Yankees legend Bernie Williams and new Yankees star Robinson Cano, and that makes six Yankees homegrowns who have been absolutely essential to the team’s success.

The Phillies have also grown their own, with the All-Star double play combination Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard all having come up with the Phillies.  So, too, did catcher and fan favorite Carlos Ruiz come up with the Phils, as well as 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP Cole Hamels, starter Kyle Kendrick, and reliever Ryan Madson.

But that is pretty much where the similarities between these two franchises end.

The Yankees, of course, have spent the last 15 seasons buying up all of the most high priced talent in baseball, making big runs at the biggest free agents and pricing all other comers out of the market.  

So it is that the Yankees, over the years, ended up with Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens, Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Mark Teixeira, and Hideki Matsui.

Whenever the Yanks have had a chance, they’ve snagged the best player available.

More importantly, and herein lies the rub, the Yankees have been able to absorb the big contracts gone bad (Pavano, Wright, Brown, Giambi) and continue to acquire top-flight talent, where other teams would be absolutely crippled by the devastating effects that a big-contract player not contributing on the field can have.

And then you have the Philadelphia Phillies.

First of all, it is worth pointing out that the 2008 Phils won a championship without big-money players, almost to a man. The Rollins ($8 million), Utley ($7.785 million), and Howard ($10 million) combo were not yet making elite money, while Hamels ($500,000) was still making peanuts.

The biggest contract on the team belonged to Pat Burrell, who was making $14 million, and only Geoff Jenkins, Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, and Brett Myers were making between $5 million and $8.5 million.

Meanwhile, the starting lineup was filled with guys like Pedro Feliz, who’d been run out of town in San Francisco; Shane Victorino, a Rule Five draft pick from four years earlier; and Jayson Werth, who signed for cheap with the Phillies in 2007 after missing all of the 2006 season.

And one of the biggest keys to the Phils’ 2008 World Series run, Brad Lidge, was picked up off the scrap-heap in a trade with Houston after an up-and-down season at a point in his career when he was hardly considered elite. He made $6.3 million to pitch for the Phils in ’08.

At the end of the day, the team’s payroll in 2008 was about $80 million.

But this isn’t about 2008. This is about 2010.

You can’t blame Washingtonians for looking at the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies and seeing the New York Yankees.  After all, so few Nationals fans actually go to the ballpark—indeed, it took the help of about 30,000 Phillies fans to sell out Opening Day in D.C. this year—that they probably don’t even know what a quality baseball team looks like.

Thus, for a Nationals fan to look at the Phillies and see an Evil Empire isn’t surprising.  But the differences between the Phils and the Yanks aren’t subtle.

It would be easy, for example, to accuse the Phils of ruthlessly snatching up free agent talent on any whim. The Phils are selling out every game (100 in a row and counting) and Phillies merchandise is flying off the shelves.  Certainly there is more money to be spent in Philadelphia on the hometown team than ever before.

But most of that money, thus far, has been spent just in keeping the players the Phillies already have. As noted above, in 2008 the Rollins-Utley-Howard combo made just under $26 million combined. Just two years later, that number is about $43 million and climbing.

Hamels, Werth, Victorino, and Madson all make real money now as well.

Ostensibly, a considerable amount of balleyhoo could be made over certain pitching acquisitions the Phillies have made over the last two seasons, but it would ring hollow.

Since the beginning of the 2009 season, the Phillies have acquired Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt; that’s three Cy Young Awards and one of the National League’s best pitchers from the last decade.

Surely this reeks of New York Yankee style player acquisition.

But unlike the Yankees, the Phillies have had to pay a price.

For one thing, it isn’t like the Phillies bought Lee, Halladay, and Oswalt, the way the Yankees would have.

Instead, the Phillies have given up a veritable baseball team worth of players to acquire these guys–including Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Travis d’Arnaud, Anthony Gose, Jonathan Villar, and J.A. Happ.

And, for that matter, the Phillies have given up all of those players and have only two pitchers to show for it; the Phillies had to get rid of Lee, knowing they wouldn’t be able to afford him once he became a free agent, in order to acquire Halladay. Throw in the fact that Oswalt cost them a very promising Happ, and one almost begins to wonder if the Phils even came out ahead in the deal.

Does this sound like the New York Yankees? Is there any doubt that if they’d wanted to, the Yankees would have acquired Lee, Halladay, and Oswalt and signed them all to long, big money contracts?

There shouldn’t be any doubt, since that is exactly what they did with C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Javier Vazquez over the same period of time.

And consider this: after coming incredibly close to acquiring Lee from the Seattle Mariners this summer, the Yankees dropped out of the chase for him. Why? It is thought that the Yankees don’t want to give up talent now when they know they can get Lee this offseason for free.

Is that an option the Phillies had?

In truth, the only “big-name” free agents the Phillies have acquired during their current reign of terror have been Raul Ibanez and Placido Polanco. An Evil Empire those two do not make.

At the end of the day, from the perspective of the Washington Nationals—20 games back and 20 games under .500—it could certainly appear as though the Phillies have taken on the identity of the greatest monolithic force the sports world has ever known.

However, from closer up, the distinguishing factors between the Phillies and the Yankees are as obvious as can be.

To compare the tortured and convoluted front office moves that the Phillies have made to the whimsical and careless free-spending way of the New York Yankees is to speak from a position of ignorance.

But the Washingtonians, in only their sixth year as a baseball fan-base after over 30 years without baseball, are still in their baseball infancy, so we’ll just consider it the ignorance of youth.

 

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Albert Pujols: Can a Player Win a Triple Crown Without an MVP Award?

It happened to Chuck Klein in 1933. It happened to Ted Williams twice, in 1942 and 1947. Could it happen again in 2010?

Could Albert Pujols win the Triple Crown without winning his league’s Most Valuable Player Award?

If this article seems like it is coming out of nowhere, that is understandable.

The answer to this question should be, and in all practicality probably is, no. It has been so long since we’ve had a hitting Triple Crown that if a player were to pull it off, the feat itself would so drastically overshadow the accomplishments of any other player. The Triple Crown would be all we talked about.

And besides, in the 1930’s and 1940’s, when Ted Williams and Chuck Klein were robbed of Most Valuable Player Awards, the award itself was still in its infancy. The Baseball Writers Association of America only took over MVP voting in 1931; in 1933, 1942, and 1947 the notion of what makes a player “valuable” was still being bandied about.

Thus, Williams lost out to an infielder, Joe Gordon, who had an inferior season while playing for a pennant winner in 1942, and to Joe DiMaggio, who had lesser numbers but also played for a pennant winner in 1947.

Consider also that Chuck Klein lost to Carl Hubbell, a pitcher, in the pre-Cy Young Award days. This would not likely happen in 2010.

 

Nevertheless, one need not torture logic to imagine the perfect scenario under which Pujols might win the Triple Crown and lose the Most Valuable Player Award. Imagine the following happens.

First of all, imagine that the St. Louis Cardinals fail to make the playoffs, and do so by a wide margin.

The Cards currently have the sixth best record in the NL, are three and a half games behind the Reds in the NL Central, and are in third place in the NL Wild Card race behind the Phillies and Giants. Suppose the Cards go into September six games behind the Reds and aren’t even in the thick of things coming down the stretch.

If there is anything we know about the Most Valuable Player award-voting, it is that voters like players from playoff teams. In the past several seasons, voters have avoided the best players in the league to give the award, instead, to Jimmy Rollins, Dustin Pedroia, Justin Morneau, and Miguel Tejada, because they played on teams that went to the postseason.

But that, alone, wouldn’t be enough to sway the voting from a Triple Crown winner.

So, imagine that we have a memorable/historic finish in either the NL East or the NL West.

Both divisions have relatively close races at this point in the season, though the Padres are beginning to pull away from the pack. Imagine, though, that either the Phillies or the Giants make a triumphant run down the stretch to catch the Braves or the Padres, and the whole shebang comes down to the final day of the season.

In 2009, the Minnesota Twins made a miracle run at the AL Central division and Joe Mauer came away with the AL MVP. In 2007, the Phillies came back from seven games down with 15 games to play, and Jimmy Rollins won the NL MVP.

In 2004, Vlad Guerrero got lightning hot for the Angels in the final month of the season and won the AL MVP after the Angels clinched the division on the last day of the season. Miguel Tejada had a similar run for the A’s in 2002.

What if Aubrey Huff goes white-lightning in September for the Giants or Ryan Howard or Jayson Werth go ballistic for the Phillies, and one of those two teams wins the division on the final day?

Would that be enough to bump off Albert Pujols?

Finally, what if it is determined that despite Albert’s Triple Crown, another player is simply better?

The last time we had a Triple Crown was 1967, back before the statistical revolution and back when we thought home runs, RBI, and batting average were the end-all be-all of baseball statistics.

What if Pujols were to win the Triple Crown, but his runs created, batting runs, OPS+, or WAR were to tell us that another player was actually the better player?

I can only imagine this happening in the case of two other players: Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez.

At this point, Votto and Pujols are in a statistical dead-heat for the best player in the National League. They have virtually identical OPS+ (Votto leads 169 vs. 167), WAR (Pujols, 5.0 vs. 4.7), and batting runs (Pujols, 45.3 vs. 43.3).  Pujols leads in home runs, RBI, and total bases; Votto leads in runs, batting average, and OPS.

The difference between them is within the margin of error.

As for Gonzalez, he would be right there in the conversation, if not for being absolutely mugged by Petco Park. His road numbers dominate Pujols’ road numbers.  But I digress.

Imagine, for a moment, that Pujols manages to hold off Votto in the home run, RBI, and batting average departments, winning each category narrowly, but Votto still leads the NL in runs scored, bases on balls, and OPS.  Imagine, also, that Votto takes the OPS+ crown, pulls ahead in WAR, and finishes the season with more batting runs.

And imagine that he does all of this for a team, the Reds, that wins the NL Central, beating the Cardinals by six or more games in the standings.

Wouldn’t Joey Votto necessarily end up winning the National League Most Valuable Player over Albert Pujols, the Triple Crown Winner?

Actually. . . 

No, I don’t think it would happen, either.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

The 2010 Former Philadelphia Phillies All-Star Team

The 2010 Philadelphia Phillies wake up Tuesday morning 2.5 games back in the NL East division and on the cusp of getting two of baseball’s best players, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, back from injuries.

The Phillies, of course, are in the middle of a mini-dynasty, having been to the World Series for two straight years, and they hope to break into full-grown dynasty mode with a trip back to the Fall Classic this year.

Once the team gets its core of Utley-Howard-Jimmy Rollins back together, plus component parts Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, and Shane Victorino and the deadly pitching trio of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels, the Phillies have to be the odds on favorite to make it out of the National League.

Nevertheless, as great as the 2010 Phillies roster is, one cannot help but to look around the league and be enamored with the list of former Phillies currently starring around the league.  Would the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies be able to handle the 2010 Former Philadelphia Phillies All Stars?

Lets have a look.

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Top 10 Most Shocking Statistics of the 2010 MLB Season (So Far)

In 2009, the Milwaukee Brewers’ second baseman Rickie Weeks missed all but 37 games of the Brew-Crew’s season.  It was the fifth straight injury-shortened season of Weeks’ career–out of five career seasons–and at the age of 26 it was beginning to look as though Weeks may never arrive.

Fast forward to 2010 and a shocking change has occurred.  Weeks has missed only one game, leads the National League in plate appearances and at-bats, and is on pace to hit 30 home runs after never having hit more than 16 in any previous season.

What’s more, through 118 games, Weeks league-leading PA’s and AB’s also represent career highs.  But it gets better: With 11 more games played and nine more runs scored, Weeks will have set career records in games, PA’s, AB’s, runs, hits, doubles, home runs, RBI, and total bases.

And oh by the way, he’s done all of this while also leading the league in being hit by a pitch.  Pretty sturdy for an ordinarily injury proned guy.

With the season Weeks is having in mind, let’s have a look at the Top 10 Most Shocking Statistics from the 2010 Season.

So far.

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Crazy Eights: The Unsung Heroes Of The 2010 Philadelphia Phillies

As a friend of mine said to me a couple of weeks ago, if there is anything the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies baseball season has taught us, it is that 162 games can make for a very long season.

In just the last six weeks alone, the Phillies have been without Chase Utley, have spent three weeks without Jamie Moyer or Shane Victorino, and have lost Ryan Howard.

And yet, however improbably, the Phillies have simply prospered during the absence of three of their biggest stars and one of their most consistent starters.

On June 28th, the day Utley went down, the Phils were 40-34 and in third place in the NL East division.  After Thursday night’s riveting come-from-behind victory against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Phillies are 64-50 and are playing .600 ball without their All-Star second baseman.

So what in the world is going on?

What’s going on is the Phillies have been getting some rather heroic performances from some rather unsung heroes.

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Ryan Howard on the DL: What the Doctor Ordered…for Ruben Amaro?

Sometimes during the course of a general manager’s career, there are seasons where he does everything right and still can’t win.  He might spend his money wisely, develop good talent, and make all the right, smart, and crafty trades to get talented players for little in return.  Yet somehow his team hits a streak of bad luck and misses the playoffs.  

When an injury bug bites a team, there is nothing the GM can do but cry into his hat about what could have been.

The good news regarding Ryan Howard’s injury, at least for Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, is that if Howard hits the 15 day disabled list, Amaro will have everything he needs to convince the baseball public, both inside and outside of Philadelphia, that the above paragraph describes the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies season.

Because make no mistake about it: The Phillies have had a run of luck that would knock out even the most articulate built teams in baseball.

A team can survive an injury to a crucial player, or even to two crucial players.  But when every essential player on a team gets injured for some significant portion of the season, it becomes simply unreasonable to expect that team to pull it all together.

Phillies fans don’t need reminding, but if Howard does hit the DL, then the list of prominent Phillies to be sidelined for significant portions of the season by injury looks like this:

Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, J.A. Happ, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, Shane Victorino, Ryan Howard, Placido Polanco, Carlos Ruiz.

It might be easier to look at the list of players who haven’t been injured this season:

Roy Halladay, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, Cole Hamels.

It would be preposterous to think that the Phillies could have survived with all the injuries that they’ve suffered and made the playoffs.  That injury list comprises the first four hitters in the regular everyday lineup, the complete middle-of-the-field defense, the back two-thirds of the rotation, and the primary set-up man and closer.

And this could be Ruben Amaro’s saving grace.

By now, it is pretty clear that Amaro probably should not have traded Cliff Lee, and it is crystal clear that he didn’t get enough in return for Lee.  The 25-man roster has the least depth it has had in three years, and the bullpen is in shambles.  To make up for trading Lee, Amaro may have bungled the team even more by sending Happ to the Astros for Roy Oswalt.

Meanwhile, the outfield still has more question marks than positions with Ibanez looking over the hill, Werth needing a new contract, Victorino’s future in limbo, and Domonic Brown apparently ready to contribute right now.

Plus, on top of all that, Amaro extended Ryan Howard with one of the richest contracts of all time a year-and-a-half before his current deal was up.

In essence, before Howard’s injury, the only way Amaro was going to get a pass for the moves he’s made this season was for the Phillies to at least make the World Series, if not win the thing.

But now, with Howard on the cusp of going onto the disabled list, Amaro may be able to take a pass on all of those moves.  If Howard is out for any significant time, Amaro will have carte blanche to write off the entire 2010 season as a sign that bad luck can strike even the best teams and, that some years, it just isn’t your year.

Basically, if the Phillies miss the World Series, or even the playoffs, with a roster full of superstars but a few glaring holes that could have been filled with relative ease, it is going to be a long winter for Ruben Amaro.

But if the Phillies miss the playoffs, while suffering a significant injury to every important player on the roster, well, the single reason for missing the playoffs becomes bad luck.

Because even the most efficiently run teams in baseball can hit a spell of bad luck.

Luckily for Amaro, Ryan Howard going on the disabled list allows Ruben Amaro to gloss over the fact that the Philadelphia Phillies are not, in fact, currently one of the most intelligently run teams in baseball.

 

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com .

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

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