2010 MLB Hall of Fame Induction Weekend: The Standard Bearers

We all know how the argument goes–in support of a worthy Hall of Fame candidate, we point to a lesser candidate already in the Hall, and hold them out as the minimum requirement for entrance into the Hall of Fame.

“If we’re going to put Bill Mazeroski in the Hall of Fame, how can we leave out Roberto Alomar?”

“Now that Bruce Sutter is in the Hall of Fame, where is Dan Quisenberry?”

“If Catfish Hunter is a Hall of Famer, how can Bert Blyleven not be?”

They are the Hall of Fame Standard Bearers. And by “Standard Bearer,” we don’t mean the guys who set the highest standard for their position, like Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, and Hank Aaron.

We mean the guys who set the lowest standard for their position, the guys to whom we will forever compare all candidates.

These are the guys at the bottom of the Hall of Fame, and if a Hall of Fame candidate was better than these guys, then the candidate should be in the Hall of Fame as well.

Let’s take a look, position by position.

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Top 25 Players Who Will Be the Key to Their Teams’ Playoff Hopes

Chase Utley has been out of the Philadelphia Phillies lineup since June 28th with a thumb ligament injury, and Utley will likely be out until the middle of August.

The speed of Utley’s return and how he plays once he’s back will be crucial to determining whether the Philadelphia Phillies will be making their third straight World Series appearance in 2010.

Utley is just one of the Top 25 Players Who Will Be the Key to Their Team’s Playoff Hopes.

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Ryan Howard: The Awakening of the Philadelphia Phillies’ Sleeping Giant

You questioned whether he was one of the top first basemen in the National League, let alone all of baseball.  You spat in the dirt over Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro giving him a contract extension that made him one of the wealthiest players in baseball history.  You blamed the Phillies sluggish first half on him, wondering where the $25 million man had disappeared to when his team needed him most.

Oh wait.  That was me.  Shoot.

Don’t look now Phillies fans, but in our darkest hour, in our moment of need, when our heroes are either slumping or injured, our sleeping Giant has been awakened.

Ryan Howard is here to save us all.

Fact is, it was a rough spring and early summer for all of the Philadelphia Phillies, and Howard has been no exception.  As recently as June 4, 2010 Howard was hitting .280 with a meager .788 OPS.  His strikeouts have been up this season, his walks and on-base percentage have been down, and he has at times looked absolutely befuddled at the plate.

But for the past month, as the Philadelphia Phillies have desperately tried to bale their sinking ship and find a way to get the runs flowing again, Howard has quietly picked up the pace of his production.

In one month’s worth of games, from June 15 to July 15 Howard has hit .327 with a 1.062 OPS.  He has nine home runs, three triples, and four doubles during that time, and has scored 21 runs to go with 26 RBI.

In Friday’s game against the Chicago Cubs, Howard has added another home run, his 20th of the season, and his batting average on the season is now up to .298.

Most importantly of all, symbolically, Howard is now once again leading the National League in RBI with 71 Phillies driven in.  Howard’s RBI have become a security blanket of sorts, as he has led the NL in that category three times in the last four years, and is looking to become the seventh player since 1901 to do it three years in a row.

Wanna see the list of guys Howard would join if he pulled that off?

Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby, Ty Cobb, Joe Medwick, George Foster, Cecil Fielder.

It is an impressive list.

Another security blanket for Phillies fans, of course, is Howard’s clutch hitting.  The vast majority of great clutch moments during the Phillies’ current run have involved Howard in some way or another.  And he is at it again.

In the most exciting series of the year so far for the Phillies, they swept a four game series against the Cincinnati Reds that saw them survive no less than a perfect game taken into the ninth inning, two 1-0 games, and a six run comeback in the bottom of the ninth inning which the Phillies ultimately won.

Guess who was right in the center of the action.

In Game Two of the series, Howard came to the plate in the bottom of the ninth with a man on and a man out and the Phillies trailing 7-1. Howard hit a single to right to score Shane Victorino and get the scoring started on a six run rally which would tie the game.  Howard then hit a walk-off two run home run in the 10th to complete the comeback.

It was vintage Howard.

Trailing the Atlanta Braves by five games in the NL East with Chase Utley and Placido Polanco injured, the Phillies are going to need their stars to come up big for them in the coming weeks.

It appears as though the biggest of those stars is finally coming around.

A sleeping giant has been awakened.

 

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

MLB Trade Rumors: 10 Teams in Need of a Major Move at the Deadline

Now that we’ve reached the All-Star Break, the 2010 season is officially on hiatus until Thursday.

With the All-Star break, one of baseball’s most sacred traditions, comes the annual rite of July, the trade deadline deals. No less than 17 teams are currently in contention for the playoffs, which means there is a lot of wheeling and dealing to be done.

Here’s a look at 10 teams that must make a move before July 31 if they hope to make the playoffs in 2010.

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Why Cliff Lee Going To Texas Is Good For Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr.

Philadelphia Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. can breathe a sigh of relief.

Now that former Phillies pitcher and fan favorite Cliff Lee has been traded to the Texas Rangers, Phillies fans will no longer be scoreboard, watching every five days wondering “what if?”  

Lee’s starts will no longer be Chinese water torture for a Phillies team with three reliable starters and two train wrecks.  

Phillies fans will no longer calculate and recalculate the math it would have required to keep Lee.

After a half season of angst-inducing dominance for the Seattle Mariners, during which the Phillies and their fans have constantly wondered “what have we done?” Lee has been traded to the Texas Rangers, a team that plays in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

And the dividends have been immediate.

As Roy Halladay pitched nine shutout innings to keep the Phillies in a game as Reds‘ pitcher Travis Wood took a perfect game into the ninth inning, Lee was getting shelled in his Rangers debut.

And we all breathe a sigh of relief as Lee now joins the long list of good-to-great pitchers to get lit up at The Ballpark.

In an era dominated by the big four pitchers – Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez – we rarely spoke of Kevin Brown as an all-time great, but his numbers match up favorable to Hall of Fame caliber pitchers John Smoltz and Don Drysdale.

In 1996 with Florida, he led the NL with a remarkable 1.89 ERA and 0.944 WHIP. He won another ERA title in Los Angeles in 2000 with a 2.58, and again won the WHIP crown with a 0.991. He also led the league in wins once, home runs per at-bat a few times, K:BB ratio once, and games started three times.

For his career, Brown finished with a lovely 211-144 record, 3.28 ERA, and 127 ERA+.

In the one year Brown pitched in The Ballpark, he went 7-9 with a 4.82 ERA, 1.576 WHIP, and a league leading 218 hits allowed in only 170.0 innings pitched.

Ever heard of Chan Ho Park? Park spent the first nine years of his career with the Los Angeles Dodgers and was an above average pitcher – 84-58 record, 3.77 ERA, well under a hit allowed per inning pitched.

Park signed a big free agent contract with Texas in 2002, and this above-average pitcher became one of the worst pitchers in baseball. In three years, Park went 22-23 with a 5.79 ERA, allowing 55 home runs and 423 hits allowed in 380.2 innings pitched.

And so it has gone with Kevin Millwood, Rick Helling, John Burkett, Darren Oliver, Vicente Padilla, and other solid-to-good-to-great pitchers who have been absolutely shelled during their time playing for the Texas Rangers at The Ballpark.

Arguably the most successful pitcher in the history of The Ballpark was Aaron Sele, who in two seasons there went 37-20 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.525 WHIP. Yikes.

Welcome to Arlington, Cliff Lee.

Looking at Lee’s 2010 game log, his performance in 2010 with the Seattle Mariners was fantastic. Lee had four complete games; five other outings of eight innings or more; and two outings in which he did not allow a single run.

Perhaps most amazingly of all, Lee allowed four or fewer earned runs in 12 of his 13 starts as a Mariner.

In his first start with the Texas Rangers on Saturday night, Lee got The Ballpark treatment. Although he did pitch a complete game and took only 95 pitches to do it, Lee got shelled to the tune of six earned runs on nine hits and three home runs while striking out only two batters.

Out of 35 batters faced, Lee induced 12 ground balls and 21 fly balls, the second highest fly ball total of his season. Orioles batters also had seven line drives off of Lee, which was the third highest total of his season.

It is not going to be easy going for the 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner with the Rangers, and that is no knock on him. Fact is, it isn’t merely hard to pitch at the Ballpark in Arlington; it is nearly impossible because The Ballpark is one of the true hitters paradises in all of baseball.

Remember, this is the stadium that made Gary Matthews, Jr. a star. This is the stadium where Milton Bradley led the American League in OPS+. This is the stadium that has resurrected Vlad Guerrero’s career, and made Josh Hamilton an MVP candidate.

And this is probably the stadium that is going to chew Lee up and spit him out.

To be fair, Lee is a better pitcher than most, and if anyone can succeed in the Ballpark it would seem to be Lee. Lee doesn’t make lots of mistakes, has excellent location with his pitches, and has had some of the best home runs allowed numbers in baseball over the last three years.

If, however, we were to play devil’s advocate, this is why we might think Lee might have big problems in Texas: as between bases on balls and base hits, Lee eschews the former and takes his chances on the latter. Rather than give up a free pass, Lee would rather allow hitters to make bad contact with his pitches and get easy outs.

Even during his Cy Young campaign of 2008, while Lee was leading the league in fewest home runs and walks per nine innings pitched, he was allowing 8.6 hits per nine innings. In 2009, Lee actually led Major League Baseball in total hits allowed with 24.

Unfortunately for Lee, there is no such thing as “bad contact” at the Ballpark as Lee learned on Saturday night, and a pitcher who has a tendency towards giving up hits is in trouble.

Oh, and here’s a trouble-sign: going into last night’s game, of all the stadiums in which Lee has pitched more than one game, guess where the worst ERA of his career has been?

The Ballpark.

In fact, after last night’s performance, Lee now has a 7.33 ERA in 50.1 innings pitched there. Since he gave up six runs in nine innings last night, that means his ERA in The Ballpark actually went down during the course of last night’s game.

Rangers Ballpark in Arlington can make good pitchers look bad and can make even the best pitchers in baseball look mediocre. It is going to be a long three months for Lee.

And an easier three months for Ruben Amaro.

 

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2010 MLB All-Star Break: Major League Baseball Midseason Award Winners

Major League Baseball rewards the best players in the league each season with a bevy of postseason awards.  

But giving out awards is too much fun to only do once a year, so as we approach the All-Star break—the ceremonial midpoint in the baseball season—let’s take a look back and give out some midseason awards.

We’ll do all conventional awards, but first, here are 10 unconventional awards to whet your appetite:

Unconventional Awards

10. The Craig Biggio Award: Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers

Bill James once said Craig Biggio was the 35th greatest player of all time and, to support this point, cited Biggio’s remarkable 1997 season in which he got hit by a pitch a shocking 34 times while at the same time hitting into no double plays.

While Biggio isn’t the 35th best player of all time, but those numbers are, nonetheless, shocking.

We give the midseason Craig Biggio Award to Rickie Weeks, who in addition to having accumulated 407 plate appearances by the All-Star break, has managed to be hit by a pitch a league-leading 15 times while hitting into only one double play all season.

9. The Nolan Ryan Award: Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros

In 1987, while with the Houston Astros, Nolan Ryan accomplished the remarkable feat of leading the National League in strikeouts and ERA while finishing the season 8-16.

In 2010, the Astros are at it again.  After pitching a one-hitter on Thursday afternoon, Roy Oswalt’s ERA is now 3.08, and he has improved his record to 6-10.  Those 10 losses lead the National League.

8. The Chris Shelton Award: Jayson Werth, Philadelphia Phillies

In 2006, Chris Shelton got off to an amazing start with the Detroit Tigers, and by May 1, he had 10 home runs, 20 RBI, a .326 batting average, and a .783 slugging percentage.  From that point forward, he played so poorly he actually got demoted to Triple-A before August.

Jayson Werth may not get demoted to Lehigh Valley, but he has significantly dropped off of a outstanding early season pace.  On May 7, Werth was batting .359 with a .420 on-base percentage and a .689 slugging percentage through 29 games.  

He had 16 doubles, which put him on pace for over 80 on the season, and a major league record. He also had 24 runs and 24 RBI, which put him on pace for over about 130 of each.

Since May 7, J-Werth has hit .232 with a .335 on-base percentage and a .414 slugging percentage.  He has only 10 doubles in his last 52 games, and he has struck out 53 times.

7. The Ernie Lombardi Award: Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals

Ernie Lombardi was a great hitter.  He won two batting titles and finished his career with a lifetime .306 batting average.  He was also one of the slowest players in major league history, and led the National League four seperate times in ground out double plays.

Meet Billy Butler.  Butler is a great hitter.  He already has 25 doubles on the season and he’s hitting .327 with a .394 on-base percentage.  He already has over 100 hits and 46 RBI.

In baseball history, 132 players have hit into 21 double plays in a single season. The newest member of that club is Billy Butler, who already has 21 in in just 84 games.

6. The Vince Coleman Award: Juan Pierre, Chicago White Sox

Coleman was one of the greatest base-stealers of all time.  If he could have gotten on base consistently, he might have stolen 2,000 bases in his career.  But he was a terrible baseball player.  In 1994, in just 104 games, Coleman stole 50 bases for the Kansas City Royals despite hitting just  .240 with an on-base percentage .285.

The current, 2010 major league leader in stolen bases is Juan Pierre, who doesn’t seem to be slowing down as he gets older.  

Of course, he’s only hitting .260 with a .330 on-base percentage, and his slugging percentage is a ridiculous .294– but he’s has had several plate appearances and lots of trips to first base, and it has resulted in more than a few stolen bases.

5. The Rob Deer Award: Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks

Deer was a true outcome player.  When he came to the plate, he was either going to walk, strike out, or hit a home run.  In 1987, in just 134 games, he hit 28 home runs, was walked 86 times, and struck out 186 times; he also hit .238.

Mark Reynolds is the perfect mix of Deer and Dave Kingman– who was Deer without the walks.  Reynolds ranks eighth in the MLB with 19 home runs. unfortunately for the Diamondbacks he is accompaning his homeruns with a .216 batting average and 116 strikeouts.

Reynolds has set the major league record for strikeouts in the last two season (with 204 and 223) he is on pace to do it again in 2010

4. The Dave Bush Award: Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays

Looking only at Dave Bush’s peripherals, you would swear he is a great pitcher.  In 2006, he led the National League with a 4.37 K:BB ratio, and he struck out over seven batters per nine innings. But he went 12-11 with a 4.41 ERA that year.

In 2010, Brandon Morrow is one of four major league pitchers averaging over 10 strikeouts per game; the other three—Clayton Kershaw, Jered Weaver, and Tim Lincecum—all are Cy Young candidates.

Morrow, meanwhile, is 5-6 with a 4.69 ERA and is not in the mix.

3. The Carlos Silva Award: Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners

It is one of the sickest statistics you’ll ever see: in 2005, Carlos Silva walked nine batters in 188.1 innings pitched, which is the fewest batters ever walked by a pitcher throwing at least 160 innings in a season.  

Silva had an unworldly 7.89 K:BB ratio that year—the 15th best all time and eighth best since 1900—despite managing only 71 K’s.

In 2010, Lee is giving Silva a run for his money.  In 103.2 innings pitched, Lee has allowed only six walks on the season.  

The difference between Lee and Silva is that Lee is also striking batters out regularly, and currently has a 14.83 K:BB ratio, which would distantly be the greatest K:BB season of all time.

2. The Red Ruffing Award: Carlos Silva, Chicago Cubs

In 1928 and 1929, Red Ruffing was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He led the American League in losses both seasons, going 19-47 over the stretch.

After starting the 1930 season 0-3, the Red Sox shipped him off to the New York Yankees, and the rest is history. From 1930 to 1946, lost two years because of World War II, Ruffing went 231-124 with a 3.44 ERA.  

Today, Ruffing is in the Hall of Fame.

For the last four years, Carlos Silva has been a terrible pitcher.  For Minnesota and Seattle, he has gone 29-47 with a 5.60 ERA and 83 home runs allowed. He has given up a shocking 729 hits in 566.0 innings pitched, which is “What are you still doing in baseball?” type stuff.

Before the 2010 season, the Cubs took Silva off the Mariners hands in exchange for problem-child Milton Bradley.  Since then, Silva has been a different pitcher: 9-2, 2.96 ERA, under a hit per inning pitched, and a 4.38 K:BB ratio.

Who is this masked man?

1. The Jamey Wright Award: Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays

I once nicknamed Jamey Wright “The Terrible Machine ” because of his awful combination of home runs allowed and hit batters.  Despite having pitched only 1,700 career innings, Wright ranks 31st all-time in batters hit by a pitch.

Contrary to what I predicted, Ricky Romero is having a lovely season.  He is currently 6-5 with a 3.39 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 114.0 innings pitched.  However, Romero currently leads the majors with 15 HBP’s.

How bad a number is this at the All-Star break?  Only 32 pitchers have topped 20 HBP’s in a single season since 1901, and Romero is on pace to become the first player since 1901 to break 30.

 

Conventional Awards

My midseason 2010 conventional awards:

AL Most Valuable Player: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

Either Cabrera or Justin Morneau.  Ask me tomorrow, and I’ll say Morneau.  Then the next day, I’ll say Cabrera again.

NL Most Valuable Player: Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres

To all you Joey Votto fans, I say Votto is having a great season, but I think Gonzalez is the most underrated player in baseball and is having a deceptively amazing season.

AL Cy Young Award: David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

Not nearly as strong a field as the NL, but I think it is Price.

NL Cy Young Award: Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies

To all you Josh Johnson fans, I say Johnson is having a fabulous year, but if Johnson had to pitch at Coors Field and Jimenez could pitch at Sun Life Stadium, the difference between them would be night and day.

AL Rookie of the Year: Brennan Boesch, Detroit Tigers

I never in a million years thought he’d be on the team this early in the season.  And yet he looks like an All-Star.

Neftali Feliz is another good candidate, but I don’t like constantly giving the award to closers.

NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves

The award is Heyward’s to lose, but he may have some trouble from Stephen Strasburg and Mike Leake if he can’t get healthy and get back on track.

AL Fireman of the Year: Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees

He’s somehow having the best season of his career. I don’t get it.

NL Fireman of the Year: Billy Wagner, Atlanta Braves

He’s somehow having the best season of his career. I don’t get it.

 

 

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2010 MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Oswalt One-Hits Pirates as Phillies, Others Look On

When does the Major League leader in losses by a pitcher generate major buzz amongst the teams looking to add pitching at the trade deadline?

When that pitcher has a 3.08 ERA, 112 strikeouts in 120 innings pitched and just threw a one hitter against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday, in which he allowed only a two-out first inning single before holding the team hitless the rest of the way.

Or, to put it another way, when that pitcher’s name is Roy Oswalt.

There is little doubt at this point that Oswalt will be traded. That the Houston Astros are going nowhere in 2010 is an understatement, and it might, frankly, be irresponsible for the team to hold on to Oswalt when there are so many holes to fill in the roster.

In that sense, all Oswalt has done with his one-hitter today is sweeten the pot for the Astros. Any lingering doubts about Oswalt regarding his 2010 record, his health and consistency the last couple of seasons, or even his age, may have been answered today.

A dominant force in the early part of the last decade, Oswalt finished in the top five in Cy Young voting in the National League five times in six years from 2001 to 2006.  He is a three time All Star and he has led the league in winning percentage once, wins once and ERA once.

Despite his 6-10 record this season, Oswalt’s .640 winning percentage is the fifth best amongst active qualifying pitchers and ranks 36th all time.

But Oswalt hasn’t been his usual self in the last couple of years. After winning 10 or more games and posting a winning percentage over .600 in each of his first eight seasons, Oswalt fell to 8-6 last season.  

Worse yet, Oswalt posted a career worst 4.12 ERA in 2009, besting by over half a run his previous career worst of 3.54.

But all of that is easy to forget on this day. For all intents and purposes, Oswalt is back. And for the Astros, he could not have returned soon enough.

According to MLB.com’s Brian Taggert, the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers all had representatives on hand on Thursday to watch Oswalt.

They must have liked what they saw.  

The good news for the Astros is that Oswalt is no longer a player that teams are going to think they can get on the cheap. This recent performance will be all the evidence they need that any team looking to acquire Oswalt had better be ready to dangle legitimate A-list prospects in return.

One must wonder whether the Philadelphia Phillies are even in the Oswalt hunt at this point. With the minor league system relatively depleted (despite all efforts by Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. to the contrary), the Phils would likely have to give up major league level players to get Oswalt.  

One option might be shipping one of the starting outfielders to the Astros for Oswalt and then calling up Domonic Brown, but it is difficult to imagine the Astros being interested in Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino or Raul Ibanez.

At the same time, though, with the New York Mets in the picture, the Phillies may not be able to afford to not be in the picture. If the Mets somehow swung Roy Oswalt to join Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey, well, the season would likely be over for the Phils.

On the other hand, Oswalt has been linked to a veritable gaggle of teams, including the Rangers, Twins, Nationals (speaking of scary for the Phillies), Angels, Tigers, and Cardinals, so it may not be time to panic just yet.

Nevertheless, it is an interesting conundrum that just got a little more interesting on Thursday, and all because a 5-10 pitcher for the Astros threw a one-hit shutout today.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com .

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

2010 MLB Trade Rumors: The Time Might Be Now To Trade Jayson Werth

If there is anything we’ve learned from recent baseball history, it is that the good teams make the obvious moves when the time comes to make them, but the great teams make the right moves when no one else sees them.

To my mind, the best recent example of the difference between obvious moves and good moves comes from the Ken Williams Era in Chicago.  After the 2004 season, Williams traded Carlos Lee to the Milwaukee Brewers for Scott Podsednik and allowed Magglio Ordonez to sign with the Detroit Tigers as a free agent.

With two moves, Williams had gotten rid of two of his team’s best power hitters.  He also made his team leaner, faster, and better defensively, and the White Sox ended up winning the World Series with pitching and defense instead of home runs and strikeouts.

Then, just as quickly as he had assembled his team, Williams dismantled it, trading away Aaron Rowand, the best defensive center fielder in the American League, for big lumbering power hitter Jim Thome.  He also traded away Orlando Hernandez and Chris Young to the Arizona Diamondbacks for flashy but home run prone Javier Vazquez.

The White Sox haven’t been to the ALCS since.

At this point in the 2010 season, and in the current Philadelphia Phillies dynasty, the Phillies and General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. are in the Jim Thome-Javier Vazquez phase of the operation.  

After having made excellent moves to get to the World Series twice—including cutting ties with Thome as well as Bobby Abreu; bringing in guys like Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino on the cheap; sending Michael Bourn to the Astros for Brad Lidge; signing defense-specialist Pedro Feliz—the Phillies have started making the obvious moves, and haven’t necessarily benefitted from them.

Acquiring Cliff Lee at the trade deadline last season was necessary, and it was a good deal, but the Phillies gave up prospects to do it.  To turn around and give up even more prospects in order to acquire Roy Halladay but toss Lee to the Mariners was a questionable decision.  

Giving Raul Ibanez a three-year deal at 37 to come play in the DH-less National League was a stretch.  Giving Ryan Howard a $25 million-per-year extension 18 months before his current contract expires was both questionable in terms of both timing and amount.

And now it appears as though the Philadelphia Phillies have come to a crossroads with another one of their players, and Amaro has a chance to once again make either the obvious move or the right move.

We’re talking, of course, about Jayson Werth.

Make no mistake about it: Werth has been one of the guys that have gotten the Phillies to the World Series twice, and he’s been a good contributor at the plate and in the field. The Phillies initially envisioned Werth as a platoon outfielder with Geoff Jenkins of all people, but he proved himself worthy of an everyday spot in the order.

Since taking over right field on an everyday basis in 2008, Werth has hit 60 home runs, driven in 166 RBI, and scored 171 runs in two seasons.  In 2010, Werth already has 26 doubles—tying a career high in just 80 games—along with 51 runs, 48 RBI, and 13 home runs.

Werth is, of course, a free agent after this season.  Regarding Werth’s presence on the open market, his agent had this to say:

“It’s apparent that Jayson is going to be the No. 1, premier position player available. He’ll be the only true five-tool player, and I expect if he does not sign back with the Phillies there would be many suitors for him. In a true free market, there should be many suitors. And he’s also the same age as Ryan Howard.”

Look, I like Jayson Werth, but let’s not get carried away.  Werth is a good player, but he has also benefited greatly from playing for the Phillies.

For one thing, Werth has been a bit of a hometown hero during his stay at Citizens Bank Park.  In 2009, 21 of his 36 home runs came at home, as did 54 of his 98 runs and 53 of his 99 RBI.  His OPS at home was .902 while his OPS on the road was .857.

Those numbers are even more startling in 2010.  Werth has collected 10 of 13 home runs, 31 of his 48 RBI, and 29 of his 51 runs at home.  He is hitting .296 at home but just .262 on the road, and his .984 OPS at Citizens’ Bank is almost 200 points higher than his road .788 OPS.

Not only does Werth do his best work at home; he also does his best work with no one on base.  In 2009, Werth had 300 plate appearances with men on base, and 376 plate appearances with the bases empty.  With men on base, Werth hit .265 with 15 home runs and 10 doubles.  With the bases empty, he hit .270 with 21 home runs and 16 doubles.

Among Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Werth, and Shane Victorino, Werth is the only one who did not perform better with men on base than he did with the bases empty in 2009.

In 2010, it has been more of the same: Werth is hitting .306 with a .912 OPS with the bases empty, and he is hitting .242 with an .843 OPS with men on.  With runners in scoring position, he is hitting .173 with a .676 OPS!

Consider also that the Philadelphia Phillies are a left-handing hitting team and they see lots of matchups against left-handed pitchers to counter that.  This plays right into Werth’s wheelhouse, and in 2009 14 of his 36 home runs came against left-handed pitchers in just 188 plate appearances.

Fact is, Werth is replaceable.  For one thing, the Phillies have Werth’s replacement in Triple-A right now in the form of Domonic Brown.  After hitting very well in Double-A, Brown is simply shredding Triple-A to the tune of a .392 batting average and a 1.104 OPS with four home runs, 12 RBI, and nine runs scored in 14 games.

Brown, of course, is a left-handed hitter, and much has been made of Werth’s value as a right-handed hitter.  But when did right-handed hitting become scarce?  General Managers foam at the mouth at the idea of left-handed hitter; right-handed hitters are a dime-a-dozen.

At the end of the day, the Phillies cannot seriously be entertaining the idea of giving Werth a big-time contract to prevent him from hitting free agency.  With the amount of money being dedicated to the Phillies’ top players, and with the Phillies needs in the starting rotation and bullpen, giving big money to a right fielder would just be reckless.

But trading him wouldn’t be.

Obviously trade deadline deals are usually undertaken between contending teams and rebuilding teams, but trades between contending teams are not unheard of.

Maybe the pitching heavy Tampa Bay Rays might need another bat to make their run in the AL East.  Or perhaps the Minnesota Twins would be willing to part with some bullpen help in exchange for Michael Cuddyer’s replacement.

And then, of course, there are the non-contending teams.  I think Werth would be a great next step in Kansas City in exchange for Joakim Soria, or in Chicago in exchange for Carlos Marmol, or in Arizona in exchange for Edwin Jackson.

Or, perhaps, in Seattle, in exchange for Cliff Lee.

I don’t know where the best fit for Jayson Werth will be come trade deadline time, but I know this: The Phillies can’t afford to re-sign him, and really shouldn’t let him go without getting anything in return.

It isn’t the obvious move to make, but it is the smart one.

And the right one.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com .

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Home Run Derby Lineup: The Top 10 Sluggers in the Game Today

What does it mean to be a “slugger?” We all know the answer, don’t we?

Being a slugger means gripping it and ripping it. It means hitting the crap out of the ball and not even waiting around to see where it falls.

It means pointing to a spot in center field and then hitting it there. It means putting dents in signs. It means splashing down in McCovey Cove. It means hitting a ball in Cincinnati that comes to rest in Kentucky.

Being a slugger means being the most powerful, terrifying, and exhilarating species of professional athlete in all of sports.

In honor of the 2010 State Farm Home Run Derby, whose lineup was announced on Tuesday, here is the list of the Top 10 Sluggers in Baseball.

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Phillies Announce Minor League Player, Pitcher of the Month for June.

Switch-hitting second base prospect Harold Garcia of the Clearwater Threshers has been named the Philadelphia Phillies Minor League Player of the Month for June 2010. Matthew Way of the Lakewood BlueClaws has been named the Phillies’ Minor League Pitcher of the Month.

Garcia, who to this point in his career has not had a lot of pop in his bat, had an explosive month during which he batted .370 with eight doubles, two triples, and two home runs. He collected 22 RBI and 13 runs scored and stole 10 bases in 13 attempts for the High-A Threshers.

Garcia is batting .335 with a .492 slugging percentage and an .889 OPS. He has hit safely in 43 of 46 games after beginning the season in extended spring training before joining Clearwater on May 16th.

Garcia is a switch-hitting second baseman who stands at 5’11” and 165 pounds. While any thought of Garcia joining the big club before 2012 is out of the question, Garcia will be worth a look down the road.

Matthew Way, the Phillies fifth-round selection a year ago out of Washington State University, was electric in the month of June, going 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA in four starts for the Single-A BlueClaws. Way had 21 strikeouts and nine walks in 27.1 innings while allowing an opponents batting average of only 1.65.

At 23 years old, the 6’1″ left-hander is developing nicely, and the Phillies would like to see him major league ready sooner rather than later. His performance in June represents a significant turnaround from his earlier season performance. He is now 7-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 14 starts with the BlueClaws this season.

 

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com .

 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

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