Brad Lidge Gets 100th Save as a Phillie, but Will He Return to the Closer Role?

It had been 286 days since Brad Lidge’s 99th save in a Phillies uniform, and in what could very well be his final year in Philadelphia, some wondered if he’d ever reach 100. 

But yesterday, as Ryan Madson found himself in a Los Angeles hospital for the birth of his son, Lidge got that chance. And after the only 1-2-3 inning of the game for the Phils, Lidge had once again completed a save.

During Lidge’s absence, the Phillies have had three different closer candidates in Madson, Jose Contreras and Antonio Bastardo, all of whom stepped into the role effectively. Contreras is out for an unknown amount of time with an elbow injury, but both Madson and Bastardo continue their dominance in the latter half of the bullpen.

The question now arises, however, of where Lidge falls into this jumbled Phillies pen. Bastardo is the up-and-coming left-hander who continues to stifle hitters with his young, electric talent. In 42.1 innings pitched this year, Bastardo maintains an ERA just under 1.50 with 50 strikeouts.

Madson, who has previously struggled in the closer role during Lidge’s previous DL stints, has thrived in it this year, with an ERA of 1.86 and 19 saves (and unlike last year, no self-inflicted broken toe injuries). 

Boasting the best record in the league, the Phils have a lot of room to experiment with Lidge’s place in the pen. But a question arises in whether or not they should even bother. If Bastardo and Madson continue their dominance, why fix what isn’t broken?

However, if Lidge, who has not been in a non-closer role in nearly a decade, continues to comeback strong from his injury, Charlie Manuel will find himself with three potential closers, one of whom led him to a World Series title.   

On the surface, this is more of a luxury than a problem. But what happens if Madson or Bastardo struggles at some point in their respective current roles? Where does Lidge fit into the equation then? 

Manuel has always shown his loyalty to Lidge, sticking with him even during the atrocity that was his 2009 season. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Lidge slip back into the role one last time, before presumably parting ways with the team at the end of the season.

It remains to be seen what will ultimately result from this Phillies bullpen, though one thing is certain. It will be very interesting to see, come October, who will be on that mound closing out the ninth.  

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NL East Position-By-Position Rankings: Part 1

In this two part series, I will rank the top players in the National League East. The rankings were made through the analysis of statistics such as batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and on base plus slugging percentage.

Several other factors were also taken into consideration such as age, injury, and defensive ability.

There are some situations where the players are so closely ranked, it is nearly impossible to decide between. But there are others, like Ryan Howard and Daniel Murphy, where the gap is fairly obvious.

In part one, I will examine NL East first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, and catchers. Part two will consist of left field, center field, right field, starting rotation, and bullpen. Enjoy!

Begin Slideshow

Key To Signing Werth: Trade Ibañez, Not Howard

 

At the age of 37, Raul Ibañez put up some of the best numbers of his career, hitting .272, with 34 home runs, and 93 RBI.  

 

At the age of 30, Jayson Werth put up some of the best numbers of his career, hitting .268, with 36 home runs, and 99 RBI.

 

Ibañez is signed for two more years, Werth is signed for one.  

 

This leads me to my solution to the lack of payroll to sign Jayson Werth.  At seasons’ end, the Phils would be wise to trade Ibañez to clear up payroll then sign Werth to a long term deal.  

 

If they don’t believe they could win a bidding war with other teams in the offseason, the solution would be to sign Werth to an extension mid season, then trade Ibañez at seasons’ end, clearing up $11.5 million in salary.

 

In addition to the $11.5 million being freed up, another $8 million will be cleared when Jamie Moyer’s contract is up.

 

Most likely, with other players getting sizable raises in 2011, another trade would be necessary. Space could be cleared through several players, possibly with a Brad Lidge trade if his woes continue this year (which would clear another $11.5 million).

 

In these scenarios, the Phillies get to keep all three dominant outfielders for another year, then keep the younger Werth who has much more upside for years to come.  By 2011, there will be numerous young players who could fit in nicely at one of the corners, the most obvious being Dominick Brown and John Mayberry, Jr.

 

Over at CrashBurn Alley, an article was posted recently with a similar solution to the Werth problem, only first baseman Ryan Howard was the target of the trade.  

 

While I see the upside, I still have several problems with the theoretical trade of Howard.  

 

For starters, Howard has been an RBI machine these past few years.  He is the main power hitter of the team, and he is one of the most clutch hitters in the postseason.  In the course of three years, he has become one of the two or three most feared sluggers in the game.

 

With a career average of .279, an on base percentage of .376, a slugging percentage of .586, and an average of 143 RBI per year (since 2006), Howard has had a greater impact than any other batter in the Phils’ lineup.

 

Everyone saw what happened when Howard went cold in the 2009 World Series.  The offense shut down.  Not even Chase Utley’s barrage of home runs could lift the Phils’ over the Yankees without Howard’s help.

 

Trading Howard would give the Phils some decent prospects, and maybe some impact players already in the pros.  But, Howard is only 30 years old, and in my opinion, two years of Howard is worth not receiving players who may or may not have a chance to be as influential as Howard can be in a short amount of time.

 

While Reuben Amaro, Jr. has to keep the future of the organization in check, he cannot make trades that could deplete the team’s chances of winning in the immediate future.  The time to win is now.

 

 

 

 

 

Photo by Yong Kim, Courtesy of Philly.com

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Phillies Rotation Preview

 

While the Philadelphia Phillies have been a hit first, pitch second type of team the last few years, the gap might hinge just a bit closer in 2010.

 

Don’t get me wrong, the Phils offense will continue to be among the best in the league and the biggest strength on the team.  What I am referring to is the evolution and maturation of the Phils rotation since last year, which now has become a group of pitchers who are much more suited for the grueling 162-game season that players must endure.

 

 

1.  Roy Halladay – Rating:  10/10

 

Let’s start at the top, with Roy Halladay.  Last year the team went into the regular season with what they hoped would be their big time ace, Cole Hamels.  This year, they go into the regular season knowing that their ace is definitely, 100 percent, for real.  No worries about lack or preparation, World Series hangover, or injury. To say the least, Rueben Amaro, Jr. is not worried that his number one pitcher is Halladay.

 

Halladay has been waiting for this opportunity his entire career, most likely sacrificing millions of dollars to ensure the opportunity to be on a team that consistently has a shot at winning.  

 

His statistics are astronomically high for a pitcher who has thrown over 2,000 innings in his career. He has compiled a 3.43 ERA, 1,495 strike outs, 148 wins, and 49 complete games.  All while playing in the vicious American League East, a division which includes the Boston Red Sox and the World Champion New York Yankees.  

 

Now, he gets to come to the cozy confines of the National League. Instead of battling a designated hitter every time through the lineup, Halladay will have the pleasure of dealing with a pitcher at the plate, who in most cases will want no part of trying to hit his pitches.

 

While Cliff Lee joined the Phils in August, giving the team the necessary boost to make it through to the World Series, Halladay will be with this team all season long, giving them a high probability of winning every fifth day.

 

And ultimately, that is all you can hope for, especially in a league filled with very few “sure things.”

 

 

2.  Cole Hamels – Rating:  7/10

 

It is very hard to believe that a year after Cole Hamels did virtually everything right, he has become a big question mark in terms of how well he will be able to perform.

 

Every question that fans can ask is being asked. Did the celebrity thing get in his head?  Was 2008 an aberration? Was last year the real Cole Hamels? Can he really use his curveball as an effective pitch? And finally, the biggest question going into 2010: Will he be able to return to his old self and be dominant again?

 

Well, if you ask the organization, they believe the answer to this final question is “yes’. If they didn’t, there is no way they would have even contemplated trading Lee.  

 

In 2008, Hamels’s ERA was 3.09. In 2009, it rose to 4.32. This is considerably high even when looking at his career ERA of 3.67.  

 

But, at 26, Hamels has been in seven postseason series, which included a World Series title and a World Series MVP. This is more than some pitchers can hope for in an entire career.  

 

In the offseason after the Phils won it all, the excitement of being a celebrity most likely got to his head. He probably had a sense of invincibility, a “nobody can beat me” kind of attitude. And in response to these feelings, he wasn’t ready.

 

He wasn’t ready for spring training, which made him fall behind for the regular season, which never really gave him an opportunity to catch up. Before you knew it, he was getting hammered in Game Three of the World Series on his own field.

 

But there is reason for Phils fans to be hopeful for a turnaround.

 

Today on Mike & Mike in the Morning, Buster Olney of ESPN talked about how well Hamels has looked early in spring training. His curveball seems to have found its movement again, and Hamels himself looks much more confident.  

 

There are also reports that Hamels has thrown nearly every day in the offseason, going as far as bringing his glove on vacation to throw.

 

This should be a good sign for the Phillies going forward, and they should be cautiously optimistic about Hamels’s chances of success.

 

 

3.  J.A. Happ – Rating:  6.5/10

 

It is hard to believe that a temporary fill-in for Brett Myers in 2008 is now the Phils’ No. 3 starter.

 

After taking over the reigns for Chan Ho Park’s spot in the rotation, J.A. Happ became one of the most consistent pitchers in the National League, not losing a game until facing the Cardinals in July. For almost the entire year, Happ was giving the team exactly what Hamels wasn’t. He would pitch deep into games, hardly every letting the game out of grasp.  

 

Ultimately, there is not very much to criticize about Happ. He is a solid middle-of-the-rotation kind of pitcher that will not overpower you but use his off-speed stuff to mess with a batter’s head.  

 

One cause for concern, however, is his performance against the Rockies in the postseason, in which he was only able to get through three innings before being pulled by Charlie Manuel. He looked shaken up and it appeared as if the pressure got to him.

 

Another worrying element is the recent memory of the collapse of Kyle Kendrick. The year after going 10-4 his rookie year, posting a 3.87 ERA  in twenty games, Kendrick saw his ERA rise to 5.49 and his spot vacated in the rotation.  

 

Happ came into the league the same way as Kendrick. The only question that remains is will the sophomore blues that haunted Kendrick pass Happ by, or send him back to bullpen.

 

 

4.  Joe Blanton –  Rating:  6.5/10

 

Coming fresh off a three year, $24 million contract, Joe Blanton has plenty to be pleased about. And rightfully so. Blanton has been a key contributor the past few years for the Fightins, often providing solid outings, which kept his team in the game.  

 

His Game Four performance in the World Series was satisfactory enough to rival C.C. Sabathia’s performance, giving the Phils a legitimate shot to win the game.  

 

He isn’t an elite pitcher, not even close. Last year he posted a 4.05 ERA, better than his career ERA, but still average to say the least.

 

However, Blanton has played a huge role in the rotation of this team, and at the age of 29, he still looks to have plenty left in the tank.  

 

 

5.  Jamie Moyer/Kyle Kendrick – Rating:  5/10

 

Here’s where things get messy.

 

Jamie Moyer, the hometown hero, is set to make $8 million in 2010. He has been a key member of the rotation since he arrived and has led the team in wins the past two years. If it were any other pitcher, these qualities would make him a lock for the fifth starter spot. But there is one factor that separates Moyer from the rest.

 

He’s 47 and coming off surgery.

 

Now, there is no doubt in my mind that it is Moyer’s spot to lose. If Kendrick and Moyer fare equally in spring training, Charlie’s loyalty to Moyer coupled with the $8 million owed to him will be the deciding factor in his decision.

 

And there is also no doubt in my mind that Moyer is going to give it everything he has left in the tank, albeit there may not be much left.  

 

Moyer’s ERA of 4.94 last year could have been an aberration, or it might have been a sign of old age. The only way we’ll find out is if Moyer is part of the rotation heading into the season.

 

Then there is Kendrick. His rookie year was stellar, his sophomore year not so much. He has been through a lot since 2007 and he spent the majority of last year with the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs.  

 

I had the opportunity to see Kendrick in person and he gradually became the best pitcher on the Pigs’ staff. The return of his confidence was evident and his slider began to look much improved from when he used it in the Big Leagues.

 

If the competition is generally even, I expect the team to go with Moyer. If he fails in the role, Kendrick will be there waiting. Unlike many teams, the Phils have the rare luxury of being able to experiment with their fifth starter.

 

Regardless of who the fifth starter is, the Phils have very little to worry about regarding their starting rotation. The city hasn’t seen a group this good since Curt Schilling carried them to the World Series seventeen years ago.

 

 

Phillies Rotation Overall Rating:  7/10 

 

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Pennant Is Phils’ To Lose

Despite losing the best pitcher of last year’s postseason, the Philadelphia Phillies remain the odds-on favorite to win the National League.

It has been debated for months, and the Cliff Lee-Roy Halladay trade is undoubtedly the most controversial trade in the club’s history.  Cliff Lee was everything the team had hoped for:  a leader, a winner, and a fan favorite.  But, the meeting Amaro had with Lee’s agent was apparently discouraging enough to pull the trigger for the better pitcher.

But is Halladay truly better than Lee?  Well, he is by the numbers.  Since his premiere season in 1998, ‘Doc’ has maintained a 3.43 ERA.  Compare that to Lee’s 3.97 ERA since 2002, and the better pitcher is clearly Halladay.  Not to mention the fact that Halladay has pitched in the winningest division in baseball since his rookie year, making it hard not to imagine a scenario in which he can be a great pitcher with Philadelphia.

I also cannot help but look at the slump Lee went through during the second part of his stay in the regular season.  There were four games during August and September where he gave up four earned runs or more (with 3 of the four games giving up 6 or more). Some of those games —which included some lowly opponents such as the Astros and Nationals —he looked lost, and his best pitches lacked the movement they usually have.

Another cause for concern with Lee is the surgery he had on his foot a few weeks ago. The thought lingers in my mind whether or not the Phils knew about the foot problem before trading him.  Granted, the foot problem wouldn’t have been enough on its own to trade him, but it might have helped put Amaro’s decision over the hump.  If the foot remains a problem for Lee, Amaro’s decision can only look better.

The shock value of the trade had the biggest impact on the fans, who weeks earlier were calling him the savior of the season.  But they must understand that in order to get Halladay, the organization had to ensure that they would not deplete their farm system entirely of its core pieces.  The last thing the fans need is another gap of thirteen years between playoff appearances.  

Lee was a great pitcher while he was here.  But if I was faced with the question Amaro faced in the offseason, Lee for one year or Halladay for four, I’d take the latter in a heartbeat.

Overlooked by the blockbuster trade is the signing of Placido Polanco.  

Polanco, having not played third base since his last stint with the Phils, is more than likely a defensive downgrade from Pedro Feliz.  

But offensively, it is a much different story.  

The Fightins are hoping that Polanco can provide stability to a lineup prone to the familiar formula of home run or strikout.  Polanco’s career OBP is .348.  This is a sizable improvement from Feliz’s OBP of .293, a considerably low number caused by his lack of plate discipline.

As far as batting averages go, Feliz has a career BA of .254, compared to Polanco’s steller BA of .303.  

Polanco will most likely bat second, pushing Shane Victorino back to the seventh spot. Being that Victorino has a historical tendency of not striking out or grounding into double plays, his presence will definitely be felt in the lower third of the lineup.

Where else have the Phillies improved?  After reviewing the roster, there are definately more potential threats on the bench than there were last year.

Matt Stairs will always be a hero in the city of Philadelphia for what he did in Game 4 of the NLCS in 2008.  But his middle of the season slump in 2009 was almost unbearable to watch.  But who else was there to go for Charlie Manuel?  Paul Bako or Eric Bruntlett?

Something had to be done about the bench, and luckily for Charlie Manuel, he’ll have more than one option to go to.  Joining Greg Dobbs and Ben Francisco on the bench will be Ross Gload, Brian Schneider, and Juan Castro.  

Listed below are their career OPS:

 

• Ross Gload:  .736
• Brian Schneider:  .679
• Juan Castro:  .601

The most impressive new addition is Ross Gload who also carries a career .283 BA with him.  Although he played first base last year, he will probably end up playing in the outfield when he isn’t pitch hitting, maybe giving Jayson Werth an occasional rest against righties.  

The one area the Phils have not improved is the bullpen.  There will be no Chan Ho Park, Clay Condrey, or Scott Eyre.  Although they have signed Jose Contreras and Danys Baez, not much has been done for the bullpen which had the most blown saves in the NL last year.  

But, it is almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which Brad Lidge can do worse than he did last year.  And as bad as he was, the team still made it to the World Series.  If Lidge can perform even a little bit like he did in 2008, he should be alright.

If not, I don’t think anyone knows what will happen.  Ryan Madson hasn’t showed he can fill the void, and J.C. Romero might not be fully healed.  If a trade isn’t made, someone will have to step up from within the organization.  This scenario however, is something that the Phils are hopeful they will never had to address this season.

Despite the flaws in the bullpen, the Phils have managed to improve slightly from their 2009 form.  

If Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge can rebound and the fifth starter performs adequately, the sky’s the limit.  No team in the National League has made any major game changing moves, and as of now, the only teams that can threaten the Phils path to a third World Series appearance are the Dodgers, Cardinals, and possibly the Braves.  

And after watching how the Phils have handled business over the past couple of years, these threats don’t look very intimidating.

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