Philadelphia Phillies: Top Ten Drafts in Phillies History

With the NFL Draft underway, much has been made of the difficulty in efficiently projecting how prospects will translate to the highest level of professional football. 

Compared to the same task in baseball, though, estimated impact of amateur players on the football field seems like an exact science.

The Major League Baseball Draft, as it’s currently constructed, has fifty rounds of selections, where the NFL Draft has only seven.  In those fifty rounds, finding four players who can contribute at the Major League level is considered a great draft. 

The Philadelphia Phillies, in a manner consistent with their struggles as a franchise over the years, have not been one of the better drafting teams since the Draft was instituted in 1965. 

Every dog has his day though, and even the team that lost 10,000 games faster than any franchise in any sport has found a way to come away with good players once in a while, both at the top of the draft and in the later rounds. 

Here, now, is a look at the 10 best drafts in the history of the Philadelphia Phillies.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Is Trevor May a Trade Chip or a Building Block?

Buyers or sellers? It’s an interesting subplot through the early summer months of every baseball season—finding out which teams will be close enough to contention, in their eyes or in reality, to trade off some young pieces in order to get the over the top, and which teams must trade off some aging stars to reload for the future.

In recent years, the idea of rebuilding in Philadelphia wouldn’t even be considered.  Every July, Ruben Amaro Jr. and company would aggressively pursue upgrades before the trading deadline, whether the need was an outfield bat, a bullpen arm, or depth in the rotation.

And every year, he would find a guy who fit his need and effectively dismantle the farm system to keep the window open a little longer.

In the process, the Phillies have lost prospects like Jonathan Singleton, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jarred Cosart and Jason Donald, to name a few, in the acquisitions of immediate-impact players like Hunter Pence and Cliff Lee.

Trevor May might be better than all of them.  Heck, he might be the best pitching prospect in Double-A baseball today.  The choice on whether or not to include him in trade discussions this year will have a great impact on the future of this club.

If the Phillies find themselves in contention, with a chance at a deep playoff run, and the front office feels they are just a piece away, they will make calls.  When those calls are made, whether it’s to talk to the Mets about David Wright, the Red Sox about Kevin Youkilis, or anyone else who could help this club, opposing general managers will inquire about the blue-chippers.

You can bet that Domonic Brown, Brody Colvin and Jesse Biddle will all among the names discussed.  Amaro’s response when they ask about May might be the difference between extending the window one more year and ensuring that the future of the club is in good hands.

No other pitching prospect in the Phils’ system has shown the consistent improvement and genuine promise that May has.  The 6’5″ Washington native was promoted to Double-A ball to start the season, after dominating Lakewood in High-A in 2011.

Baseball Prospectus’ No. 51 prospect before the year, May’s stock has skyrocketed in four starts (all wins) with the Reading Phils.  His WHIP (0.870) and ERA (2.35) are both the best he has shown at any level.  

In April, his arrival with the big club couldn’t have seemed closer than 2014.  Now, Opening Day next year doesn’t seem impossible, especially if the loss of Cole Hamels creates a hole in the rotation.

Amaro has to know what he has in this kid, and not ship him off on a whim.  As important as it is to get the most out of this core group of players, it’s not worth sending a star-in-the-making like May out for a three-month rental like Youkilis.

Now, if the Phillies were to fall out of contention between now and then, all of this would be moot, and rebuilding the system around May, Brown, Sebastian Valle, Tyson Gillies and company, most likely by trading Hamels, would become the top priority.

But it’s too early now to talk about the white flag.  And frankly, it’s depressing to think about.

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Philadelphia Phillies: What Jose Contreras’ Return Means to the Phillies Bullpen

Major League Baseball has a cliche as old as the game itself—it’s a marathon, not a sprint. 

In other words, outcomes of single games are less important than the adjustments made to account for those outcomes. And it doesn’t matter who’s ahead at Mile 4, it’s about being in front at Mile 26.

Eight months after elbow surgery, the return of El Titan de Bronze (as Jose Contreras was once nicknamed by Fidel Castro) to the Phillies bullpen could mean a lot when it comes to where this team wants to be at Mile 26 and beyond. 

In the short term, Contreras’ presence in the bullpen gives the Phils a proven arm to work the seventh inning, with Chad Qualls occupying the eighth inning slot and Jonathan Papelbon closing games out. 

This aspect will be especially important with Cliff Lee hitting the disabled list with an oblique strain, as his replacement in the rotation, Kyle Kendrick, obviously doesn’t have the same kind of ability when it comes to working late into games (Kendrick has thrown one complete game in 98 career starts, Lee finished six just last season).

Contreras has shown signs of wearing down, between the recent injuries, poor play in his rehab assignment (four earned runs in 4.1 innings), and his advanced age (officially he is 40, but he might really be closer to 50). Still, though, he has a history of getting major-league hitters out, and that’s a skill that can’t be overlooked.

Another benefit from his return is the lightened workload to Antonio Bastardo, who hasn’t looked sharp, particularly with his control and against right-handed batters. Contreras’ infusion into the bullpen allows Bastardo to go back to his former role, as a lefty specialist, as he works his way back into 2011 form.

If Contreras can remain healthy and productive, the biggest coup will be for the starting pitchers, though. 

With a solid bullpen arm that can be counted on to get the game to the setup man, there will be far less pressure on the starters to throw seven innings every start, and thus, to keep their pitch counts low throughout the game.

Roy Halladay is 35 years old, and has thrown more than 2,500 innings in his career. Eventually, if he is a human, he will start to break down. So tempering his workload has to be a priority for Charlie Manuel this summer. 

Vance Worley hasn’t thrown more than 182 innings in a season in his career, including both minor- and major-league ball. No one knows what to expect of him after a full season as a big-league starter and 220 innings. 

If these guys were to fade at all in September, any hope the Phillies had to capture a sixth consecutive NL East crown likely would fade with them. The difference between them making it to the finish line and falling short might lie with the confidence their manager has in turning the game over to the ‘pen.

If the ageless Cuban can return to his 2010 form, that confidence will grow immensely, and the chance of a return to the postseason will follow.

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2012 MLB: Lack of Patience Leads to Philadelphia Phillies’ Early Struggles

The days of the big boppers are gone.  It’s no secret.  No one is confusing the Philadelphia Phillies‘ lineup with an American League powerhouse, as was the case in the latter part of the previous decade. 

Runs are not coming by way of the long ball anymore, and they will not be anytime soon either, at least until the returns of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard from the disabled list.

This team can still win games though.  “Small ball” is the name of the game for manager Charlie Manuel.  The idea that three or four runs a game can be enough when coupled with the league’s best rotation has the potential to work. 

So why, then, are the Phillies under .500 after a weekend series loss to the rival New York Mets?

The pitching has been, predictably, fantastic.  Roy Halladay leads a group in the top three in ERA, WHIP, and walks. Check.

The defense has been very solid too.  Only the Reds have committed less errors than the Phillies’ 4, while Freddy Galvis and Shane Victorino have made fantastic plays look routine daily, it seems.  Check.

The baserunning, too, has been great, as no team has more steals (10) or a better theft percentage (91%) in the National League than the Phightin’ Phils. 

(Note: It’s been an afterthought for this era, with the power of 2005-2009 and the pitching of 2010-now, but the Phillies’ baserunning has been phenomenal.  Chase Utley has the highest steal percentage (89.23%) in Major League history, among qualifiers, with Jimmy Rollins (20th) and Shane Victorino (24th) not far behind.  That’s amazing.)

Even the offense hasn’t been as bad as people think.  The Phillies are third in the NL in batting average, at .260, and only .003 under the league average for slugging.  That, combined with the pitching, defense and baserunning, should be enough for a winning record, at least.

The one thing that teams playing “small ball” need to do more than any other team is wait for their pitches.  If they don’t come, take the walk and get on base, work your way to scoring position and find a way to score. It takes patience.

And therein lies the missing link. 

The Phillies are next-to-last in the National League in walks.  They are next to last in walk percentage, and, maybe most indicative of all, they are next to last in pitches seen. 

As a team, they have seen 21 three-ball, one-strike counts.  On the next pitch, they have swung 16 times.  Swinging at a 3-1 pitch is forgivable, but is usually reserved for guys with power.  On a team mostly without such players, taking those pitches might help get a few more guys on base.

John Mayberry Jr., probably the team’s lone true power hitter, hasn’t drawn a walk in 28 plate appearances.  As a six or seven-hole guy, though, it isn’t as painful, as hitters later in the lineup are expected more to drive runs in than set the table.  Such is not the case for the first three batters in the order.

Juan Pierre, Placido Polanco and Jimmy Rollins have combined for two walks in 91 plate appearances.  That’s unacceptable for any team, but especially for a team like the Phillies, who need baserunners to get in scoring position in order to grind runs out.

Where it hurts more, in the grand scheme, to not take pitches, is in the opposing pitcher’s pitch count and, subsequently, the amount of pitches the batter sees from him.

In other words, swinging early in counts or not working pitchers into deep counts allows them to stay in the game longer.  So instead of a starter leaving in the sixth and getting to face a middle relief guy, you end up seeing the starter going strong into the seventh or eighth before he gives way to a closer. 

Much of the damage in baseball is done against the first pitcher out of the bullpen, so working counts is vital.

Also, if you swing at a 1-0 pitch, you have in effect seen two pitches, maximum, from a pitcher’s arsenal, leaving him with at least two more he can go to the next time you come to the plate that you haven’t seen yet.  Working him the first time into showing you his hand, more or less, can be very helpful in later at-bats, because you know what the pitcher is bringing to the table. 

So impatience at the plate does a disservice to your team, while letting the opposing pitcher off the hook at the same time. 

Phillies hitters need to relax, take their time at the plate, and let the game come to them.  Pressing, in any sport, has the same effect, and always happens when things aren’t going well.  Like free throw shooting in basketball, or field goal kicking in football, patience at the plate is just a matter of nerves and confidence. 

If these guys can learn to be patient, they will be just fine in 2012.

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2012 MLB: Why the Philadelphia Phillies Will Get Back to the World Series

Much has been made about the decline of the Phillies. Advanced metrics suggest a steep drop-off in the near future for the aging starting pitchers, and evidence of a similar drop-off, both in durability in productivity, has been seen in the offensive cornerstones Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, while the team struggles to sign rising ace Cole Hamels pressed up against the luxury tax.

With the talented, young teams in Washington and Atlanta already gaining, the Miami Marlins went on an offseason spending spree, and the Phillies’ stranglehold on the National League East suddenly seemed as tenuous as it has been since the days of “we’re the team to beat” talk.

Phillies detractors had more ammunition in the spring, when it was discovered that Utley would be joining The Big Piece on the disabled list until at least mid-May.  

While, down the road, prognosticators might be right, and this veteran club might be nearing the edge of the cliff, 2012 is not the beginning of the end. In fact, it just might be one more peak.

In the landscape of the National League, potential contenders has become a buzzword. The Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres and New York Mets are the only teams without supporters of their playoff chances. Of the 12 remaining teams, each has strengths. 

Any argument, though, that the team in Philadelphia is not the best is an argument made in vain. This club won their division by 13 games for a reason, after all.

The starting pitching, obviously, is the chief reason for their superiority. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels each finished in the top five of Cy Young voting last season, and that’s all you really need to know. Each of the three had an ERA below 2.80, a WHIP below 1.041, and at least 194 strikeouts. Since 1900, only 88 times has a pitcher put those numbers up. And three of them were on the 2012 Phillies.

Vance Worley is a rising star, and Joe Blanton is still in the discussion as the best fifith starter in the game.

But this not news. Everyone knows the pitching is dominant, like it has been for the last two seasons. What will separate this Phillies team from others with great starting pitching is the few quality offensive players, fantastic team-wide base-running, the October-proven closer, and, maybe most of all, what has become the best group of defenders, top to bottom, in the majors.

Run prevention will be the key for their success. It’s become apparent that, especially in the absence of Howard and Utley, the Phillies aren’t the offensive juggernaut they used to be. But with this pitching and defense, it might only take three runs a game to win the division.

The guys behind the aces committed the fewest errors in the National League last season (74).  Shane Victorino’s range and consistency have earned him the reputation as the best centerfielder in baseball. Carlos Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco are consistently in the Gold Glove conversation as well. Even Cliff Lee has been recognized as a fantastic defensive player. 

The only Phillies from 2011 who never received praise for their glove work, incidentally, were Raul Ibanez, Domonic Brown and Howard (though his play has markedly improved since his younger days). Ibanez is now a Yankee and Brown was sent back to Lehigh Valley after, among other things, some Ibanez-like defense this spring. It’s clear management values the skill. 

(Another note: As painful as it is not having Utley in the three-hole for the first third of the season, Freddy Galvis is an absolute wizard with the glove. Count us as lucky, because after Utley returns, Galvis will show just how important having a backup middle infielder with his defensive skills can be for the stretch run.)

So with the league’s best defense from 2011 now improved for 2012, we are likely to see even better numbers from the starters (Team ERA in 2011: League leading 3.01). That’s a scary thought for the National League.

Offensively, they will lean on Hunter Pence and Victorino until the cavalry arrives. Even then, though, those two, with Rollins and John Mayberry Jr. helping anchor the middle, Polanco writing the book on hitting in the two-hole, and the uber-clutch Carlos Ruiz on the back end, three-and-a-half runs a game should be the lowest end of estimations. 

Something the detractors seem to ignore is that somebody has to beat them for them not to win. What National League team is better than Philadelphia?

The Marlins don’t have the pitching, or maturity, to keep up, the Braves’ offense makes the Phils look like murderers’ row, and the Nationals are just too young. And for all of the praise the Diamondbacks are garnering,  I would love for someone to explain to me how that rotation can hang with the guys donning red pinstripes. Ian Kennedy is the one comparable starter, but even he wouldn’t crack the top three in Philly.

The only two teams who could have beaten the Phillies last season each lost, arguably, their best player this offseason (Albert Pujols from St. Louis and Prince Fielder from Milwaukee). 

After combing through the contenders, one thing becomes clear: While it might be fun and tempting to pick an upstart to dethrone the Phillies as the NL cream of the crop, all attempts are reaches. They simply don’t have the horses. I know it, Charlie Manuel knows it and in October, so will the rest of the League.

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MLB 2012: Philadelphia Phillies Should Stay the Course

Nobody could blame a Phillies fan for panicking.

The same group of fans just watched their Eagles painfully blow four of the first five games in 2011 and never really recover. A supremely talented team left out of the playoffs because of injuries and underachieving play. That is exactly what they are scared of happening again.

In the NFL season, a 1-4 start is crippling. Major League baseball, though, is a marathon, not a sprint.  Instead of having 12 games to turn a disaster into a success, the Phillies have 158 games after starting 1-3.

This team has been though stretches like this, and every time, they come out stronger.

In these first four games, the team has scored eight runs, so, to this point, they are averaging two a game. There were no less than four similarly bad stretches in 2010 and 2011. In 2011, they lost five of six games in May, scoring just 10 runs, and in June they lost four straight games scoring only seven runs. In May 2010, they lost five consecutive games (including four shutouts), and then in late August, they were swept in a four-game set in Houston, scoring seven runs.

Suffice to say, Phillies fans have seen inept offense before.

The reason they will weather the storm is simple; even without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, the players on this team are far better than what they’ve shown this season. The humbling nature of baseball has just hidden that fact for four games.

The most notable early underachievers are Shane Victorino and John Mayberry Jr. 

The Flyin’ Hawaiian has yet to get an extra-base hit in 2012 and is slugging just .308; in 2011, he had 60 extra base hits, including a league-leading 16 triples, and slugged .491. When the law of averages pans out, his pop will show itself and the lineup will become more formidable.

John Mayberry Jr.’s slow start was to be expected, and is expected to continue for a bit; in his four-year career, he has batted .238 and slugged .393 from March to May. In June to October, those numbers jump to .279 and .575.  At the end of the day, he is as good a hitter against lefties as you can find in a platoon, with a .304/.345/.608 slash line (Jose Bautista’s slugging percentage last year was an MLB leading .608). When he gets it going, he will drive in plenty of runs from the bottom of the lineup. 

All the five-time defending NL East Champs need to do is relax and let it come to them. In the meantime, let’s give them a chance to do what they do best.  They have plenty of time to show us they still can.

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