Philadelphia Phillies: Ryan Madson’s Injury Doesn’t Validate Papelbon’s Contract

As I’m sure everyone knows by now, Ryan Madson will miss the 2012 season due to a torn ligament in his right elbow.  

Unfortunate as this injury is for the former Phillie, Mad Dog’s injury does not, as some fans have suggested, validate the monster contract Ruben Amaro Jr. hastily handed to Jonathan Papelbon in the offseason.

For those who need a refresher on how the situation played out, Madson and the Phillies were close on a reported deal for $44 million in November before talks fell through and the Phils inked Papelbon for four years and $50 million. After holding out for another huge, multi-year offer that never came, Madson signed with the Reds for one year and $8.5 million in January.

Certainly, it’s fortunate that the Phillies did not end up with another crippling injury entering 2012, and it unfortunate the Reds now have to find another closer—but what the relative losses are, and could have been, to each team only serves to highlight how impatient and foolish Ruben Amaro Jr.’s closer negotiating was this winter.

Yes, Madson’s injury is a tough blow for the Reds’ bullpen, but it’s not terrible for their checkbook.

By showing patience while negotiating for a closer, and letting the market settle before making any rash offers, the Reds managed to wed themselves to Madson (a potentially elite closer) for only one year. The Reds’ patience helped to minimize their losses—Madson probably would have been gone after the season in search of a much bigger deal had he performed well, anyway.

The Phillies, on the other hand, would not have come away so clean.

Had Ruben Amaro Jr. been successful in signing Madson, the Phillies would be on the books for a ton of money over a handful of years for a pitcher with a busted elbow.  

If anything, Madson’s injury makes it even more clear how foolish the Papelbon contract was.

The closer role is one of the most volatile positions in all of sports. Guys burst on to the scene all the time (if you’ve ever played fantasy baseball, you know there’s like 12 hot closer commodities that always seem to pop up during the season), they only pitch 60-70 innings a season and have incredible short career peaks (unless their last name is Rivera).

Madson’s injury is scary because it could happen to anyone, even Johnny Paps—the $50 million man.

Obviously, the Phillies weren’t overly concerned with Madson’s elbow if they were that close to signing him long-term. His injury just serves to highlight how fickle it was to gamble $50 million on Jonathan Papelbon’s right arm.  

Even if Papelbon has two great seasons and then goes down with a serious injury three years from now, the Phillies are still out tens of millions of dollars on an injured closer.  

Just look at the previous largest contract for a reliever.

In 2005, the Blue Jays signed B.J. Ryan to a five year deal worth $47 million. He had a great first year in 2006 before blowing out his elbow and missing almost the entire 2007 season. Though he did manage to come back with a solid year in 2008, he had a 6.53 ERA in 2009 and never pitched in the Major Leagues again.

Were those two good years of Ryan worth $47 million to the Blue Jays?  

Probably not.  

Would two good years of Jonathan Papelbon be worth $50 million? Would three even do it?

While the Reds lost $8.5 million on Ryan Madson, they’ll be alright in the long run. If Jonathan Papelbon suffers a similar, unpredictable injury the Phillies won’t be so lucky.

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11 Unexpected Occurrences That Have Complicated the Phillies’ Roster Decisions

To say the Phillies have had an interesting spring training so far would be an understatement.

This Spring has already been chock full of injuries, comebacks, setbacks, unheralded players thriving and established players struggling.  You wouldn’t think a team coming off of a 102 win season and a fifth-straight division title would have many difficult roster decisions or lineup changes to make, but thanks to plenty of unexpected occurrences, Charlie Manuel and Ruben Amaro Jr. have had their hands full thus far.

Following are 11 such occurrences that may well contribute to a different-looking squad than many of us thought we would see open the 2012 season.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why the Team Needs to Start Domonic Brown

Just last season, Domonic Brown was one of the top rated prospects in all of baseball.  An elite future seemed imminent, and the only question was when Brown would be given an opportunity to get it started.

Now, it seems like many fans and analysts would prefer to see the Brown era ended before it’s even begun.

The Brown critics have some legitimate points and concerns over the outfielder’s future.  They say he struggled in his short time in the Major League’s last season and, even more damningly, had a tough time in the minors after he was sent down.  

They say he looks lost in the field, that he’s a classic “toolsy” project player who just can’t seem to put it all together and that he’s made of glass and might not be able to stay on the field.

The Dom haters might be right, and they might be wrong.  He could be a bust that’ll never live up to his potential, and he could be the young explosive piece the Philadelphia Phillies offense needs.  

The thing is, we’ll never know (and, more importantly, neither will the Phillies) what exactly Brown is if we never see him play.

As I briefly got into in my comments on my article handicapping the Phils’ battle for the LF spot, I feel like it’s similar to the Philadelphia 76ers recently deciding to finally start Even Turner—another prospect facing a lot of expectations who many had started to write off as a bust.  At some point, you just have to let him loose and see what he has.  

There’s only so much you can tell about a player when he is playing in AAA.  If the goal is to eventually have Brown hit and field at the Major League level, then we should care about how he hits against Major League pitchers and fields balls hit by Major League batters.

Besides, Brown’s struggles during his return to the minor league’s last season need not be attributed to a lack of effort or ability of having “it.”  

For one thing, Brown may have needed more time to fully recover from breaking his Hamate bone last spring—an injury which can sap a player’s power and make hitting uncomfortable for a while.  Dom likely also struggled due to a lack of confidence and security in his spot within the organization.

The front office showing very little confidence in Brown is really hurting his development in my opinion, as is the lack of a guaranteed opportunity.  Dom would probably be pressing a lot less if Ruben Amaro and Charlie Manuel stood firmly behind him and said that he’d have a reasonable opportunity at the beginning of the year to show that he’s worthy of starting for the Phils.

So maybe Brown really isn’t ever going to amount to anything worthwhile at the Major League level. Maybe he just isn’t the answer, and is a victim of being too hyped too early.  But we’ll never know that for sure if we never see him play.

There’s still a good chance Dom can bring the youth and offense he was supposed to into the Phillies lineup, and besides, do the Phillies other left field options really excite you that much?

The Phillies just have to let him play, and if he doesn’t have it at least they can cut their losses earlier and try and get something in a trade while he’s young rather than let him play in AAA until he’s 27. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Handicapping the Phillies’ Left Field Battle

As much as Phillies fans will miss Raul Ibanez’s humongous tobacco cheek, striking resemblance to guitarist Tom Morello, and tortoise-like speed, it’s time we get used to the fact that the Phillies will have a new left fielder in 2012.

There are a handful of candidates to assume the vacancy in left field, and each of them will get a long look from Charlie Manuel (and all of us, since nearly every game is televised).  While someone could certainly come out of nowhere to steal the job, it appears that there are five main competitors: Domonic Brown, John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix, Juan Pierre and Scott Podsednik.

Handicapping the battle for left field is a tricky situation depending on how you define “winning the job.”  For instance, is the “winner” the player who starts on opening day, or is it the player who gets the majority of at-bats over the course of the season?  The situation is further complicated by the fact that John Mayberry Jr., in the absence of Ryan Howard, may find himself actually playing some first base early in the season.

For the sake of this article, and in order to account for platooning or games the player may play at other positions, I’ll define the “winner” of the Phils left field battle this spring as the player who gets the most starts in left field in the month of April.  With that in mind, here are the chances that each candidate wins the left field job, from least likely to most likely.  

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10 Ways the Philadelphia Phillies Can Avoid Another First-Round Exit

One stinking run.

The Phillies, as we are all well aware, couldn’t score a single run against the St. Louis Cardinals in the deciding game of last year’s NLDS.  They couldn’t score a run to save their season, to back an absolutely clutch and inspired performance from their ace, or to protect the collective sanity of their fans.

And so it was that the team with the most wins in Phillies’ history, the team with the four aces that were supposed to tear up and rewrite the history books, couldn’t even make it past the first round of the playoffs.

But life goes on, the months go by, and baseball is reborn every Spring.  2012 gives the Phillies a chance for a fresh start; a new opportunity to win the World Series title they fell so disappointingly short of in 2011.  

With last year’s loss to the Cardinals still probably fresh in all of the Phillies’ memories, here are 10 ways they can avoid another first-round exit this year. 

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MLB Spring Training 2012: Philadelphia Phillies Debut a Fast Outfield

Even though the Phillies lost their Grapefruit League opener to the New York Yankees on Saturday, there was a lot to like about the afternoon.  

For one thing, it was awesome to just see baseball on TV again—I can only watch so many How I Met Your Mother marathons in the offseason before I lose my sanity.  

More specifically, Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon pitched well, Hunter Pence hit an opposite field home run and Sarge Matthews continued his drastic improvement as a member of the Phils’ broadcast team since his bumbling first year.

One thing that really stood out though, so much so that Tom McCarthy made a note of it almost every inning, the Phillies have a lot of outfield depth and those guys are fast.

The following players played in the outfield during the Phillies’ first spring game: Domonic Brown, Tyson Gillies, Hunter Pence, Juan Pierre, Scott Podsednik and Shane Victorino.  If you need any convincing of their speed, consider the following:

• Domonic Brown was recruited to play wide receiver at the University of Miami.
• Tyson Gillies stole 44 bases in the minor leagues in 2009.
• Hunter Pence actually has the least impressive high steal total of anyone in the bunch (18 in 2010), but is a freakish athlete and a great fielder.
• Juan Pierre has stolen over 60 bases three times in his career, most recently when he stole 68 in 2010.
• Scott Podsednik once stole 70 bases in a season.
• Shane Victorino’s nickname is the “Flyin’ Hawaiian,” how many slow dudes do you know who can be described as “Flyin?”

Since he played first base during the Phils’ opener, none of this even takes into account that John Mayberry Jr., another freakish athlete that has stolen 20 bases in the minors, will be playing a lot of outfield for the Phillies this year.  

Not only should the Phillies outfielders be able to run down plenty of balls in the gap and go first to third on more singles this season, but they’ll be able to maintain the ability to do it even if someone gets hurt.   

However, not all of the cheetahs that played in the outfield during the Phils’ Grapefruit League opener are going to make the opening day roster.  Dom Brown really has to impress to start the year as the Phils’ left fielder, Scott Podsednik and Juan Pierre are probably fighting for the same spot and Tyson Gillies probably doesn’t even have a shot for a couple more years.

But if someone gets hurt or even traded, Brown, the Podsednik/Pierre loser and Gillies will all be there to step in.  

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11 Philadelphia Phillies Debuting New ‘Looks’ This Spring

While nothing may seem more peaceful than stretching and having a catch in the Florida sun, many of the inhabitants of the baseball world find their roles and bodies in flux during spring training.

Every year there are a handful of players on each team who we hear are in “the best shape of their lives,” and a couple guys who really let themselves go. Some players experiment with new facial hair, new gloves, new workout routines and new pitches in order to find something to help make this season their breakout season.

Regardless of whether they are fighting for jobs, adjusting to new roles, switching positions or dealing with contract uncertainty, every player has their own story, their own prerogative and their own “look” every spring.  

And even though the Phillies‘ core group of players has remained largely intact from last season, plenty of the 2012 Phillies are still debuting and adjusting to new looks this spring.

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MLB Spring Training 2012: Predicting Every NL East Team’s Home Run Leader

Strikeouts are alright, steals are fine and outfield assists are nice, but home runs are still the most consistently exciting and gratifying plays in baseball.

In this current age of sabermetric statistics and analysis, we know that categories like home runs and RBIs aren’t the best measures of a player’s worth (sorry Mark Reynolds), but that doesn’t mean we enjoy seeing the ball jacked out of the park any less. 

And even after all the scrutiny that classical statistical measures have come under, home runs remain the quickest—and most macho—way to put runs on the board.

So with the 2012 season nearly upon us, and not a minute too soon, let’s take a look at who will likely end up leading each National League East team in homers.

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10 Ways a Tough NL East Could Help the Phillies in 2012

In 2011, the Phillies finished 30 games ahead of the Marlins.  

Now, in a new stadium in Miami, the Marlins enter 2012 with a new manager (Ozzie Guillen); some new all-stars (Jose Reyes and Heath Bell); another solid veteran starter (Mark Buehrle); and the personality to be one of the most entertaining teams—on and off the field—in all of baseball.

In 2011, the Phillies finished 21.5 games ahead of the Nationals.  

No longer expected to be a doormat in the NL East, the Nationals shored up their bullpen by signing former Phillies Brad Lidge and Chad Durbin in the offseason. They also brought in starters Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson.  

With a full season from Stephen Strasburg, a healthy Ryan Zimmerman, a possible cameo from uber-prospect Bryce Harper, and Jayson Werth looking to rebound from a disappointing 2011, the Nationals have their eyes on a surprise playoff appearance in 2012.

In 2011, the Phillies finished 13 games ahead of the Braves.  

Though Atlanta collapsed at the end of last season, they return a very good team with young players, such as Jason Heyward, Jair Jurrjens and Craig Kimbrel. They are looking to prove that the future of the previously 14-time defending NL East champions is in good hands.

In 2011 the Phillies finished 25 games ahead of the Mets.  

That…well, that actually could happen again in 2012.

The point is, the NL East should be very competitive this year.  And while that is definitely going to make things tougher for the Phillies in their quest for a third World Series title, there are some silver linings to playing in a more difficult division.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Kyle Kendrick’s Contract Extension Is Puzzling

The Philadelphia Phillies announced today that they have signed Kyle Kendrick to a two-year contract extension worth $7.5 million through 2013. This news comes a month after the team avoided arbitration by signing Kendrick to a one-year deal worth $3.5 million—meaning that Kendrick will make about $4 million in 2013.

This move is a bit of a head-scratcher to me.

Sure, Kendrick posted a 3.22 ERA and had a successful year by the standards we’ve come to expect of him in 2011, but he was helped by a career-low .261 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). He also didn’t really strike anyone out, as he registered only 4.63 strikeouts per nine innings. It seems like Kendrick had a pretty lucky year in 2011.

This is not to say that I don’t think Kendrick is a useful piece of the Phillies’ bullpen, but I just don’t think he’s a piece worth $7.5 million over the next two years. Predictions for Kendrick’s ERA in 2012 are all somewhere around the 4.2-4.3 range. Given the general dominance of pitching throughout baseball these last couple seasons, that’s about the stats I’d expect from a replacement-level player as a long man out of the bullpen.

It was also an unnecessary move to extend Kendrick now. As mentioned earlier, the Phillies had already agreed with him on a contract for 2012, so to extend their replacement-level long man a year before they had to seems like an odd move, in my opinion.  

For a team that could use some extra money to shore up their left field situation, sign another utility infielder or even make a run at Roy Oswalt if his price drops more, this move just doesn’t make sense to me. 

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