Cliff Lee: Notions of Consistency and Luck

When fans or writers talk about Cliff Lee‘s year, the general consensus seems that he’s had a great, but inconsistent year. For example, in a recent article, Philly.com writer Marcus Hayes absurdly argues that Cliff Lee is not worth the money the Phillies gave him this offseason. His reasoning? Because he’s too streaky.

“Lee is on his second run of dominant pitching this season—but that’s what his is, what he has always been. Streaky. He was not better than decent for the first 2 months this season. He was poor in July. For $25 million per, streaky does not equal value.”

Of course, in the same article he also states Ryan Howard is worth the extension the Phillies gave him because of the Phillies’ consecutive sellout streak since 2006. The RBI diehards actually make a better argument than that. So already his argument of Lee should be taken with a grain of salt.

If you look at the arbitrary month to month splits of Lee, sure you will get bloated and minuscule ERA numbers. But, what if, instead of looking at the month to month cutoffs, you look at five game blocks over the course of the season?

Games	ERA
1-5	4.18
6-10	2.62
11-15	2.65
16-20	2.06
21-25	2.78
26-28(3 games)	0.00

Hmm, isn’t that something? By the looks of it, that same inconsistent and streaky Lee looks much more consistent.

And, of course, there’s the problem of using ERA in the first place. ERA, unlike it’s more predictive counterparts, FIP and xFIP, is far more swayed by good and bad luck.

Looking at his best and worst months, there’s one common theme. His best months show extremely favorable numbers in the primary luck-telling statistics, while his bad months show the opposite.

Month	ERA	FIP	xFIP	BABIP	LOB%	HR/FB%
April	4.18	2.78	2.47	.313	65.8%	11.8%
May	3.78	2.92	3.03	.356	76.6%	8.7%
June	0.21	2.21	3.10	.191	96.6%	0.0%
July	4.91	3.51	2.35	.359	71.0%	18.8%
August	0.45	2.14	2.72	.229	98.1%	3.4%
September	0.00	1.69	2.52	.208	100.0%	0.0%

For reference, over the last two years, Lee’s BABIP has been .286, his LOB percentage has been 74.4 percent, and his HR/FB has been 7.2 percent. You can clearly see how these stats play a huge part in his supposed best months(June, August, and September) compared to his supposed bad months(July, April, May).

You can even argue he was a better pitcher in July than June. His ERA and FIP wouldn’t suggest it, because of HR/FB percentage heavily influencing both numbers, but his xFIP, which normalizes this and other statistics, do suggest it.

In June, he struck out a season low 19.7 percent of batters and walked 5.4 percent of batters. However, in July he struck out 27.8 percent of batters while walking just 3.5 percent. Meanwhile, his strike-to-walk ratio was a silly 8.00 in July, compared to 3.63 in June.

It’s disappointing how many fans cannot look past ERA and record as a way to judge a player. All too often people, like Marcus Hayes, make shortsighted judgements based solely on those two stats in a vacuum.

When a player turns it around, they either attribute it to a reason that isn’t evident or call him streaky. If they took the time, or had the ability to think critically, they’d realize how much luck can play a factor in a player’s numbers. Heaven forbid they go out on a limb and state a pitcher is still dominant after a run of bad luck.

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Antonio Bastardo Help Making Ryan Madson Expendable in 2012

With the emergence and improvement of Antonio Bastardo, free agent-to-be Ryan Madson and his lofty price tag have become expendable. Would it be nice if Madson would return? Absolutely. He’s clearly better than any Phillies relievers not named Antonio.

It’s unfortunate, with the future payroll obligations and Madson’s likely $8 million dollar plus multi-year deal, that he cannot return. Bastardo, who is just as good while being five years younger and very cheap, can fill the closer void with Madson’s departure. 

While Bastardo is not as good as his 1.42 ERA might suggest, due to good BABIP(.149) and left on base percentage(93%) luck, he’s still been tremendous, posting a 2.38 SIERA and 2.71 FIP. The primary reason for the jump is his ability to get swing and misses. His contact percentage has dipped below 70 percent, good for eighth among major league relievers with a minimum of 40 innings. Madson has not been too shabby in his own right with a contact percentage just north of 70 percent.

Like Madson’s changeup, Bastardo’s go to pitch has been a devastating slider. According to Fangraphs, his slider has saved 3.81 runs per 100 pitches, good for ninth among relievers in the majors. There will probably be some regression with that number, but it is still very impressive.  

If Bastardo did not progress the way he has, Ruben Amaro Jr. would be in a tough predicament of either overpaying yet another player or risk having a questionable bullpen in 2012. Amaro better offer arbitration in order to receive first round compensation when he signs elsewhere. In the worst-case scenario Madson surprisingly accepts arbitration and we have him for another year at roughly $8 million.  

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Chase Utley Is Still an Elite Defender at Second Base

The other night while listening to WIP, a caller began talking about Chase Utley and at one point commented about Chase Utley being average defensively. The host, not surprisingly, did not refute the caller’s claim.

This is not an isolated incident. I’ve heard several hosts and fans take this same stance, commonly citing a few errors in the playoffs as enough evidence.

The last time Utley was an average defender was in his first big league season in 2003. Even with injuries mounting the last couple years, he’s still fielding at an elite level. Advanced metrics agree across the board.

In Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games, Chase Utley is third in the majors, behind Howie Kendrick and Dustin Pedroia, with 20.5 runs saved. The next closest in the National League is Brandon Phillips with 14.8.

Baseball Info Solutions’ defensive runs saved is not quite as high on Utley, but still has him saving three runs in his 672 innings. It still puts him third in the National League behind Mark Ellis and Brandon Phillips. However, Phillips’ four runs saved has come with almost 400 more innings played.

Like UZR, Total Zone defense also considers Utley the best defender in the National League with five runs saved despite less than 700 innings played.

Even though advanced defensive metrics have their holes, they are still a better measure than worse and outdated statistics like fielding percentage and errors. More credence must also be given when the metrics universally agreed on the defensive ability like they do with Utley.

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What Will the Phillies Do with John Mayberry Jr. in 2012?

2011 has been a breakout year for Phillies outfielder John Mayberry Jr. With more Major League playing time than at any point in his career, Mayberry has taken advantage. But with his emergence, and the addition of Hunter Pence, it leaves the Phillies with a quandary heading into 2012.

This dilemma, and Mayberry’s emergence were two of the reasons I did not want to trade for Pence in the first place. Ruben Amaro has some options, although none of them are very enticing.

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Comparing Ryan Howard and Jim Thome Since 2006

Jim Thome will always be fondly remembered by Phillies fans for taking a leap of faith on an upcoming team. It ushered in a new era for the Phillies. Unfortunately the marriage didn’t last long. In his third season with the Phillies, he battled through injuries that sapped his power led to just under 200 at-bats on the season.

In his absence, another power hitter was impressing. Given his first meaningful, consistent playing time in the majors, Ryan Howard hit 22 homers in 88 games, en route to a .288/.356/.567 line.

In the offseason, the Phillies had to make a difficult decision. Either stick with their young, cheap power hitter or their veteran, expensive, and fan favorite power hitter. Ultimately, Thome was dealt, along with over $20 million, to the White Sox for Aaron Rowand, Gio Gonzalez and Daniel Haigwood. But what if Howard was the one dealt?

In 2006, Howard certainly had the edge. His 58 homers while hitting .313/.425/.659 led to a .436 wOBA, 162 wRC+ and 6.2 WAR all while receiving under $400,000.

Jim Thome wasn’t chopped liver either, as he rebounded in a strong way, hitting .288/.416/.598 with 42 homers and a .420 wOBA and 152 wRC+. His $12.5 million salary was more than worth 4.6 WAR.

2007 could have actually gone to Thome if he was not limited to just 130 games. His .275/.410/.563 line with a .410 wOBA and 148 wRC+ was actually better than Howard’s .268/.392/.584 line with a .399 wOBA and 135 wRC+. But Howard’s 14 more games aided in 3.7 WAR versus 3.3 for Thome.

Howard’s increased strikeout rate and use of the shift in 2007 factored into his drop off, and would be a sign of similar years to come.

The next year was another decline for both players. Howard’s decreased walk-rate led to an underwhelming .251/.339/.543 line. Sure he hit 48 homers, but a player with his power should not have been posting that bad of an on-base percentage. His .366 wOBA and 120 wRC+ was barely less than Thome’s .370 and 122 marks. However, with an older Thome now fully entrenched as a designated hitter, his 2.0 WAR was behind Howard’s 3.0.

Thome’s last year on his contract was guaranteed upon meeting plate appearances upon meeting over 1,100 plate appearances in the previous two years. Age appeared to have finally caught up with Thome as he posted just 1.0 WAR while hitting just 23 homers in 434 plate appearances while being a clog on the bases. His wOBA and wRC+ actually remained almost identical.

Howard rebounded nicely in 2009, hitting .279/.360/.571. His .393 wOBA and 140 wRC+ bested Thome and was a key, along with improved defense, to a 4.6 WAR.

Howard’s salary started getting ridiculous in 2010, as his 1.3 WAR was far from worth $19 million. Injuries certainly took a toll on his hitting and fielding. Thome experienced a resurgence with his new team, the Minnesota Twins. Signing for just $1.6 million, he was used cautiously and smartly. Putting him in the best positions possible, he hit 25 homers in just 340 plate appearances. His 178 wRC+ was actually the second best of his career. His 3.2 WAR was an impressive return on the Twins’ small investment.

In the same limited role this year, Thome is not having as good of a season as last year, but still has managed a .369 wOBA and 135 wRC+, better than Howard’s .357 and 123 marks. Howard’s many more games played has led to 0.5 more wins though.

People would be surprised how close their total numbers have been since 2006. Hitting alone, Thome has edged Howard in the rate statistics. His .266/.390/.546(142 OPS+) barely tops Howard’s .275/.370/.562(139 OPS+). Thome’s collective .397 wOBA and 141 wRC+ is also better than Howard’s .387 and 135.

Of course, Howard’s durability and Thome’s inevitable exile to designated hitter has enabled him being five wins better than Thome. However, he has also been paid over $7 million more than Thome with a lot more to come. It would have been interesting how the Phillies would have fared if they opted to keep Thome instead of Howard, assuming they could have gotten more than just Ted Lilly for him.

In the end, congratulations to Jim Thome, who should be elected to the Hall of Fame when he retires and achieved 600 home runs without disgracing the game like a couple others in the same company.

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Domingo Santana Is the Player to Be Named Later in Hunter Pence Deal

Add another top-10 prospect to the Hunter Pence deal. In a deal that didn’t have to be made, the Phillies shelled out a heap for the 28-year-old outfielder. With the addition of Domingo Santana, the overall package is now roughly close to the package the Phillies sent to the Blue Jays for Roy Halladay.

Domingo Santana, 19, is a very young, toolsy outfielder with lots of upside. Standing 6’5, 200 pounds, his best tool is his power potential, which he began displaying more this year, hitting a career-high seven homers and a .166 isolated slugging percentage, up from .115 last year at the same level.

While he’s demonstrated a very good walk-rate in the minors entering this year, he’s struck out much too often. His strikeout rate has been a career best this year but remains a very poor 30.7 percent of plate appearances. If he would continue showing marked improvement, while maintaining his walk rate, he’d have the potential to be another top 50 prospect.

Like many of the prospects in the Phillies system, Santana was a boom or bust prospect. He could have been another Ryan Howard or could have been another Anthony Hewitt. Sooner or later, giving up all these top prospects will come back to haunt the team. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Six-Man Rotation with Kyle Kendrick Is Not a Good Idea

Recently, after Cole Hamels struggled in his last start, Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee stated he is not ruling out the possibility of a six-man rotation. This would be a mistake.

It seems Dubee, like many fans, have become results orientated with Kyle Kendrick. Once again, some fans are thinking Kendrick’s current 3.25 ERA means he’s a good pitcher. They see a low ERA and assume a pitcher is better than what he is. Kendrick currently is a prime example.

He’s still pretty much the same pitcher he’s always been. While his year-to-year ERA is very volatile and much more susceptible to variance and luck, looking at more skill-based metrics are not. When looking at his peripherals, nothing really has changed.

While he has decent control and can get some grounders, he still cannot miss bats. Even though his 4.45 SIERA is essentially at a career best (not counting 2009’s 26 innings), he’s still pretty much the same pitcher across the board.

Kendrick	SIERA	xFIP	GB%	K%	BB%	Contact %	Swinging-Strike%	BABIP	LOB%
2011	4.45	4.42	49.2%	11.1%	7.4%	88.5%	5.4%	.265	76.1%
Career	4.87	4.66	46.2%	10.4%	6.8%	88.7%	4.9%	.288	72.1%

 

While normal luck stats, such as BABIP and left-on-base percentage, have been a tad bit luckier than his career norms, it does not exactly jump off the page. Having to look deeper, the main culprit in his much lower ERA is what’s been occurring with runners on base and in scoring position, where his BABIP is an unsustainable .214 and .212, respectively.

Not only is Kendrick not the pitcher his ERA dictates, the use of a strict six-man rotation in itself is not optimal. Pitchers, on average, typically do worse on six days of rest than on four or five days of rest. In “The Book: Playing the Percentages of Baseball” they performed a study comparing starting pitchers in regard to how many days of rest they received: 

“There were 4,456 starts where a pitcher had exactly five days of rest. Their wOBA in these starts was .346. On four days of rest, the same pitchers had a wOBA of .350.”

As for six days of rest:

“We have 645 games in those cases, with a wOBA of .355.”

Keep in mind that most of the time in a six-man rotation, pitchers will get six days of rest and not five, because of the typical off-days on a Monday or Thursday.

Even if there were no off-days and every pitcher got exactly five days of rest each time, the slight increase in overall performance would most likely be more than canceled out by the fact you are sacrificing starts for your best (Halladay, Hamels, Lee) in favor of getting starts for your worst (Kendrick).

In addition, the Phillies cannot afford to go without a long reliever in the bullpen. The last thing they need is to use Lidge, Madson and Bastardo for multiple innings if another 19th inning game arises, or a starter needs to be pulled early. If they want to make a spot start for Kendrick every now and then when days off aren’t on the near horizon, then so be it, but do not make the mistake of making it an every week occurrence.

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Shane Victorino: Under the Radar National League MVP Candidate

Until Ryan Howard’s recent 3-for-17, 10-strikeout skid, there was talk, absurd as it is, about Howard’s claim for another possible MVP. But Phillies fans are forgetting the team’s most deserving MVP candidate, Shane Victorino.

Currently Shane Victorino is second among National League position players in Fangraphs’ WAR with 5.6, behind only Colorado Rockies‘ Troy Tulowitizki and tied with Jose Reyes. In Baseball-Reference’s WAR, Victorino is tied for fifth with 4.6 wins, behind only Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen and Michael Bourn.

The difference in the two measures comes from the difference in the defensive input they use in each. For example, Baseball-Reference grades out Kemp and Braun’s defense much better than Fangraphs. However, in each system, Victorino’s defense grades out well. In Baseball-Reference’s Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average, Victorino has saved five runs. In Fangraph’s Ultimate Zone Rating, he’s been even better, saving just over seven runs.

But everyone knows Victorino has been a great defensive center fielder for years now. What puts him into MVP contention now is his improved offensive game. After suffering some bad BABIP luck last year, he’s rebounded in a strong way, hitting .310/.387/.541. His .928 OPS is good for eighth in the National League. Showing an increase in power, with career highs in slugging and isolated slugging (.231), he’ll get near his career high in homers and is just one triple away from tying his career high in triples (13).

Tacking on stolen bases, his .407 wOBA is seventh in the league. Stolen bases aren’t the only byproduct of his terrific speed. Unlike the other sluggers who rate higher in the offensive categories, his baserunning has added 3.4 runs according to Fangraphs, good for fifth in the league.

His value lies in the under-the-radar and hard-to-measure facets of the game. Unfortunately for Victorino, he doesn’t have the gaudy baseball card stats that typically woo MVP voters, media and fans.

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Phillies Fans Need to Temper Expectations for the Team and Hunter Pence

Sure, Hunter Pence is an improvement right now. Even though offensively, I expected Brown and Pence to be roughly equal for rest of the season, Pence certainly is the better defensive player at this point. No Brown supporter will deny that. But the trade does not guarantee anything.

I’d be a lot more on board with the move if I knew our worst outfielder, not including Gload, was not going to be manning left field every night. I’d even be fine with moving Brown down to Triple-A if I knew it was John Mayberry Jr. going to be starting instead of Ibanez. But that’s not happening.

Back to Pence. Fans should be prepared when he hits a slump this season, which is bound to happen as his batting average of balls in play regresses to more normal levels. When that happens, I’m sure you’ll hear sports talk folk attributing it to “adjusting” to his new team.

Around this time you’ll also be hearing such questions as, “How does he hit in Citizens Bank Park?” “What are his numbers against the Braves?” “Does he hit the Giants well?”

I can tell you the answer quite easily. Despite whatever numbers you’ll read and look up in such splits, he’s going to hit pretty much the same as his overall career numbers suggest. Citizens Bank Park is a better hitter’s park than Minute Maid Park, but not as much as people think. In fact, so far this year, Minute Maid has been more hitter friendly than Citizens Bank. 

Sure, 3-for-22 with one walk and eight strikeouts against Tim Lincecum is not a good start, but 23 plate appearances is hardly enough of a sample. Chances are he’ll do better in the future—certainly not .800 OPS good, but better than .356.

Pence is a nice player, but not a great one. Since 2009, he’s a very respectable 15th among outfielders in fWAR with 9.9. Unfortunately among these top 15, his .351 wOBA is 14th, ahead of only Michael Bourn. If you prefer Baseball-Reference‘s WAR, he’s accumulated 7.7 wins over the same time period. If he was starting in right field from day one with the Phillies, they’d probably have an additional one or two wins.

That one or two wins should put things in perspective when entering the playoffs. For the sake of argument and giving him the benefit of the doubt, say he would have been worth two extra wins in those 105 team games. That comes to roughly .02 wins added per game. In a seven game series, his addition would add roughly .14 wins. That should help show that his addition does not make a drastic difference in a single playoff series.

Yes, the addition of Pence slightly increases the Phillies chances of reaching and winning the World Series, but in the crapshoot that is the playoffs, nothing is certain. Just ask the Cardinals.

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Phillies Trade Rumors: Why They Should Not Overpay for Mets’ Carlos Beltran

Yesterday I wrote a similar piece involving Hunter Pence, but it seems over the past 24 hours, rumors have heated up more with Carlos Beltran. A number of teams other than the Phillies have expressed interest in Beltran as well, including the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves and maybe the Milwaukee Brewers. Despite the demand, the Mets‘ asking price is steep for the 34-year-old switch-hitter. It’s also an asking price I do not think they will get from any team.

Despite the Phillies’ need for someone who can hit left-handed pitching, they do not need an every day corner outfielder. I probably should make that more clear. They do need an everyday left fielder, but they will not delegate Ibanez to where he should be—the bench. Given that the Phillies will continue trotting Ibanez out there by default, they can get by with having a high-split platoon player, without paying an exorbitant price tag.

The Mets insisting on Domonic Brown will not happen. There’s no chance the Phillies give up Domonic Brown for Beltran. For as much knocking on Vance Worley’s early season success I’ve done, he’d be too much to give up as well. Same goes for top prospects Jarred Cosart, Jon Singleton, Trevor May and Brody Colvin. Despite the apparent demand for Beltran, the Mets lack leverage and teams know this.

It is clear the Mets want and need to save money. Beltran is due about $6 million for the rest of the season. Even if they eat $4 million of that in a trade, they’d still love saving $2 million for a player they will get absolutely nothing for in the off-season, leaving the Mets with very little leverage.

Unlike past rental player deals involving Mark Teixeira, Matt Holliday and Manny Ramirez, whoever deals for Beltran will get no compensation in the off-season if he leaves elsewhere. In Beltran’s contract, he cannot be offered arbitration once his deal is up. Without arbitration, there can be no draft pick compensation. That means no possible first-rounder or sandwich pick when he signs elsewhere.

There’s no doubt Beltran is a good player. The biggest question marks with him are his age and durability. In 2009 and 2010 he missed over half of his teams’ games battling through injuries. He appears healthy so far this year, leading to a bounce back year, but those injury risks still linger. His speed and defense is not what it once was, but he still looks like Willie Mays compared to Raul Ibanez.

Offensively, his .397 wOBA and 156 wRC+ would both be leading the Phillies. While I do not think he’s quite as good as those numbers dictate, even with some regression, he’d be one of the Phillies best offensive players. For the rest of the season, ZIPS projects him going .281/.371/.485 with a .370 wOBA.

With Beltran, you need to play him everyday. If I knew he’d be replacing Ibanez as an everyday outfielder, I’d be much more on board, but I know Beltran’s addition will come at the expense of Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr.’s playing time. And an improving Brown needs, and deserves, his at-bats more.

Certainly Beltran would be an improvement, but he’s the purest of rentals there can be with absolutely no compensation after the season. If the Phillies felt they could even resign him for a one or two year deal in the off-season, I’d be more inclined. But I do not think they have the financial flexibility to give him that amount of money.

Perhaps if they were not paying Howard almost twice as much as he’s worth, they could. In my opinion, you do not sacrifice an important part of your future for a few months. If it meant giving away Mayberry, a mid-prospect like Domingo Santana and/or Sebastian Valle and a lesser prospect, I’d be all for it.

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