Phillies Trade Rumors: Why They Should Not Overpay for Astros’ Hunter Pence

Many people in Philadelphia are fascinated by the allure of adding the Houston Astros All-Star outfielder Hunter Pence. He certainly fills the need of an everyday right-handed, corner outfielder. But the package many people are willing to give up is exorbitant.

I’ve heard some people willing to give up Domonic Brown, John Mayberry Jr., Vance Worley and a top prospect or two. That is extreme and unneeded. Domonic Brown and a mid-level prospect may be even too much for Pence. There are too many other, cheaper options available who can provide just as serviceable of a performance, assuming they are correctly utilized by Charlie Manual. Even at 28 years old, there are future warning signs of him as a player.

Sure he is under team control for two more seasons, and is relatively cheap this year, but his salary will certainly raise in those next two years under arbitration. Once he is a free agent at 30 years old, then what?

Do you give out another large contract to a player past his prime and be in the same predicament of a team full of older players continuing to regress?

There are signs of his regression already, despite being in his prime years. Even though he’s coming off three consecutive 25-homer seasons, his power has been trending downward since his rookie year. His decrease in doubles and triples each season is an example, as is his isolated slugging.

Year	Isolated power
2007	.217
2008	.197
2009	.190
2010	.179
2011	.166

Consistent trends are alarming. There could be a couple reasons for this consistent drop, and neither are good. Either he is one of those rare, early bloomers who have their best years as a younger player, before the typically prime years, before fading off. Or it could be his increasing penchant for chasing balls outside the strike zone.

Year	Outside Strike Zone Swing %
2007	29.8%
2008	31.1%
2009	26.4%
2010	33.5%
2011	36.0%

This is not a good trend. Among Phillies’ regular players, he’d be chasing the most balls outside the strike zone with the exception of Wilson Valdez and Michael Martinez. It is certainly plausible, chasing at all these bad pitches, has produced more, weaker hit balls. His career high in strikeout rate this year is another culprit of this.

There will be those out there yelling about how good his .318 average is. Looking deeper, it has been significantly aided by good luck. His .381 BABIP is over 50 points higher than his career norm. On ground balls, his BABIP, this season, is an unsustainable .347.

For comparison’s sake, the league average is .234. And his speed is nowhere close to that of players like Ichiro and Jose Reyes, who can beat out more ground balls for singles than other players. But even they don’t have career marks close to .347.

He also does not hit left-handed pitchers that much better, if at all, than others rumored to be available. Over his career, Pence has been a relatively low-split hitter.

Against lefties, for his career, he’s posted a .359 wOBA with a 120 wRC+. Against righties, he’s posted a .354 wOBA and a 117 wRC+. And ironically, this year, those numbers have reversed, posting a .379 wOBA versus righties and a .336 wOBA against lefties. Here’s how the other available right-handed hitters fare against lefties:

Player	Career wOBA(vs. LHP)	Career wRC+(vs. LHP)	2011 wOBA(vs. LHP)	2011 wRC+(vs. LHP)
Jeff Francoeur	.353	114	.421	168
Melky Cabrera	.302	81	.316	96
Josh Willingham	.377	131	.334	114
Michael Cuddyer	.377	132	.485	215
Carlos Beltran	.381	132	.357	129

The more prudent decision would be forgoing the steep price of Pence in favor of either Francouer, Willingham, Cuddyer or Beltran. With Francouer, Willingham and Cuddyer, you can simply platoon them when needed without sacrificing as many at-bats for Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr.

Not only will the Phillies have to give up less for any of those players, but they will not be stuck with the pressure of giving Pence, who will be past his prime by the time he hits free agency, another large contract.

The most I’d give up for Pence would be one of their better young prospects, with the exception of Cosart, and another mid-level prospect, such as Cesar Hernandez or Domingo Santana.

Another deal I would not mind would be an overvalued Worley, John Mayberry Jr. and a low prospect such as Matt Rizzotti. Trading Domonic Brown would be a huge mistake, in my opinion.

And for those on the opposite thinking of the spectrum, Ed Wade will not take Ibanez, Lidge, Baez and Kendrick for Pence.

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Philadelphia Philles: Beating That Dead Horse That Is Ryan Howard and RBI

Every once in a while, Philadelphia Daily News sports writer Bill Conlin publishes an article that is even more absurd than his usual ramblings.

This time it’s the notion that Ryan Howard is one of the best players in baseball because of the amount of RBI he racks up.

Sadly, so many others, even supposedly knowledgeable radio hosts tout his greatness using the same old story. The Fanatic’s own Mike Missanelli called Ryan Howard the “most under-appreciated athlete” in Philadelphia.

I think almost all Phillies fans appreciate what Howard has done in his career, especially 2006, but there is a large contingent of us that know the horrible statistic that is RBI, he is declining and dreading the fact he’ll be handcuffing payroll by making at least $10 million to $15 million more than he’s worth.

Keith Law summed it pretty well when asked about RBI:

“Totally useless. In terms of measuring the value of a player’s performance, I find them absolutely useless because 1) it’s determined by how many opportunities you get — the guys who hit in front of you in the lineup, how often did they get on base; and 2) there’s no particular skill to driving runs in.

There’s no such thing as a hitter who is significantly better in RBI opportunities. Guys might do that over a year or two over the course of their careers, but you are not seeing guys who are just substantially better than the norm with runners in scoring position.

Obviously all hitters hit a little bit better with men on base and pitchers working out of the stretch, maybe he doesn’t generate the same velocity. But in general, a hitter’s a hitter, whether there’s nobody on base or there are guys on second and third. …

There’s not really a guy out there who’s better in RBI situations. If you’re in an RBI situation, if you’re in a clutch situation, the guy you want at the plate is just your best hitter, period – the guy who’s going to produce the most offensively or give you the least chance of making an out, because obviously in a clutch situation, in an RBI situation, the last thing you want is an out.

So get me the guy up there who’s the least likely to make an out or who’s most likely to get that extra-base hit, regardless of what the situation is, because I think if you really look deep down into it, over the course of multiple seasons, you won’t find that those guys who you’re talking about who step up in big situations really exist.”

Still, people like Conlin struggle with these simple concepts. And personally, I think his latest article needs another Fire Joe Morgan style

“ON THE DAY AFTER the All-Star game was played in Phoenix without Ryan Howard, this column is directed at the haters and bashers who have been coming out of the woodwork in larger numbers than usual.

They are predictable as smog in a heat wave. They pretend to be knowledgable baseball fans, but trip themselves up every time because they are dead wrong. And egregiously stupid.”

They are coming out of the woodwork in larger numbers because more people are educating themselves about the sport through great sites like Fangraphs, Beyond the Box Score and Inside the Book.

We don’t pretend or trip ourselves up, rather it is your type who can’t let go of obsolete baseball card stats created in the 19th century and accept times have changed.

Calling other people stupid because of an unwillingness and incapability of understanding newer, more advanced concepts is immature and embarrassing. I guess spellcheck is out of the question too.   

“I hear the reason why he was not voted into the All-Star Game by the fans—and Phillies fans basically ignored him while stuffing the ballot box for an injured Shane Victorino—is because the National League has all these great first basemen. And RH is no longer one of them…”

Then you heard correctly. There are currently seven National League first basemen who have more WAR than Howard.

They are Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Todd Helton, Carlos Pena, Gaby Sanchez and Michael Morse. All of them except Pena also have a higher wOBA.

“So, chew on this: Prince Fielder went to the All-Star game and captained a Home Run Derby team that was blown out of the water by a couple of real hitters named Adrian Gonzalez and Robinson Cano, who put on one hell of a show.

Not that Fielder is chopped liver. He is, after all, tied for the league RBI lead with some slipping, already over-the-hill guy named Ryan Howard. Each had 72 at the break. Oh, and Prince did rule last night, with a three-run homer that helped the National League win, 5-1.

But let me mention that Howard bats cleanup for a first-place team that leads the majors in wins and has the biggest division lead at the break in either league.”

The Home Run Derby matters? Brewers are currently a first-place team as well. And I guess Lee, Hamels and Halladay don’t play a significant role in leading the majors in wins?

“Oh, but he’s a butcher with the glove (all of four errors), clogs up the bases (as if Fielder is Michael Bourn) and is not providing close to acceptable return for the $125 million salary. (And since that contract just kicked in and he’s on pace for 140 RBI, maybe you should wait a while on that.)”

There is more to fielding than the amount of errors you make or don’t make. It’s called range. No one said Fielder is Michael Bourn. And his contract extension has not kicked it yet. That is just factually wrong. It does not start until 2012. Last time I looked, it is still 2011. But I’m the stupid one.

“Here’s a typical email from a regular who has been on Howard’s case since Day 1. He posted it just as the Phillies were about to explode for that 14-1 destructo of the Braves Sunday:

‘The Phillies are paying Howard more than the Sox are paying Adrian Gonzalez a professional hitter. That would be funny if it wasn’t so embarrassing.’

I replied: ” . . . There’s not one [censored] player worth what he’s being paid . . . That’s why there should be a statue of Marvin Miller in front of the MLPA headquarters.”

Just then, Howard singled home the lead run off Derek Lowe in what was still a tight game.

The emailer’s reply:

Only because for some reason Lowe didn’t throw a breaking ball in the dirt. He doesn’t get paid to hit singles off the trademark. He’s killing this team like he did in 07 09 & 10.

This was the generic chant from the Tab-and-Scrapple Choir. He doesn’t hit for high enough average, he never hits in the clutch (See Mike Schmidt abuse files from the 1970s). He needs to bunt or slap the ball to left against the shift. Yada, yada, yada . . .”

All players’ salaries as a whole is not really conducive to the argument at hand. I would not go as far as to say he’s absolutely killing the team. That doesn’t start until probably 2014. You don’t think he’d……?  

“One guy even invoked the despicable, undecipherable WAR stat. That’s a totally bogus acronym for “Wins Above Replacement.” It presents a patentedly unsupported hypothesis that measures the “projected” performance of an “average” Triple A player called up to replace Major League regular A . . .

I’m laughing too hard to continue. You saw what happened last season when Howard missed 19 games with an ankle sprain and was off-form the rest of the season, yet still managed 31 homers and 108 RBI.

In the words of Edwin Starr at Woodstock: “WAR, what is it good for? Absolutely nothin.’ [Hunh!]””

And your T-shirts are too tight too, Billy! The offensive portion of WAR actually isn’t really unsupported at all. Conlin doesn’t like new statistics! Conlin smash! The Phillies went 12-4, averaging almost five runs, in his missed games from August 3 through August 20.

“For the record—and I’m giving Michael Jack a pass for his dismal rookie year—in his first five full seasons after 1973, MJS averaged 34.2 homers and 99.4 RBI.”

Cool story, bro.

“So let’s move on to some serious power hitting by the man considered to be the greatest all-around hitter in franchise history. That would be Hall of Famer Chuck Klein.

Klein was a candle who burned briefly but brightly in his five full seasons playing in a lopsided Baker Bowl that was tilted favorably for both his lefthanded pull power and defensive prowess as a rightfielder.

So let’s put Howard’s first 5 full years up against the Great Chucker. And I’m throwing out RH’s Rookie of the Year 2005 because he played in only 88 games.”

Let’s not. This is about to get worse.

“Klein had a 1930 for the ages. So did the Phillies. He batted .386, but failed to win the batting title in a National League consumed by an orgy of offense. He scored 158 runs, flogged 250 hits, ripped 59 doubles, eight triples and 40 homers for a gargantuan 170 RBI.

Unfortunately, that was the year when Hack Wilson drove in 190 for the Cubs.

They must have been playing slo-pitch softball because the Phillies’ team batting average was an incredible .315. That offensive juggernaut managed to lose 102 games in a 154-game schedule.

Howard is tied for the NL RBI lead despite being an island in the stream. Until Chase Utley came back after missing 2 months, there was a mostly inept revolving No. 3 hole in front of him and a No. 5 hole committee that underperformed.

In 1930, Klein had the best protection since the invention of the kevlar vest. He batted No. 3 with Lefty O’Doul hitting .383 in front of him. The cleanup hitter was third baseman Pinky Whitney, who batted .342.

Klein was traded to the Cubs after his fifth full season:

* The Chucker drove in 693 runs for an average of 138.6.

* Howard has driven in 680 runs for an average of 136.

* The Chucker hit 180 homers for an average of 36.

* Howard has hit 229 homers for an average of 45.8.

I’d rest the defense right there, but feel compelled to add that Klein spent most of his seasons here on teams in or near last place.

I don’t have to tell you where Ryan Howard has spent his five seasons.”

Mother of God. You can’t compare counting stats across two completely different eras and two completely different ballparks! And I do not recall anybody saying Klein was better than Howard or vice versa. How is it Klein’s fault that those Phillies teams had arguably the worst pitching staffs in history?

If you continue reading in the comments, you can entertain yourself with more absurdities.

What Conlin, and many others won’t listen to is the fact that each year he is at or right near the top of runners on base when he comes to the plate. You don’t have to be a genius to understand that the more runners on base when you’re hitting, the more opportunities you get to drive them in. Perhaps Conlin thinks he can knock in over a 100 RBI without anyone being on base.

Currently this season, Ryan Howard has had the most runners on base when he’s at bat, 297 of them to be exact. For brief comparison sake, that is two more than Adrian Gonzalez, 33 more than Prince Fielder, and 62 more than Jose Bautista. 

Currently he is knocking others in base at a very respectable 18.1 percent clip. Is it the best in baseball as many pretend he is?

Among the 75 players with at least 150 plate appearances with runners on base, it is good for 12th. Please note I arbitrarily picked 150 plate appearances because it gave us a nice round number of players in the pool and still enough to weed out at least some small sample variance.

Now you may or may not be thinking to yourself, I wonder how many RBI those other players would have if they had the same amount of runners on base as Howard. Good news, I did those calculations using each player’s others batted in rate.

In that, Ryan Braun led the group with 82 RBI, followed closely by Mark Teixeira, Lance Berkman, Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez. Howard was 12th.

There is a reason that stat was almost rejected in its infancy almost 150 years ago, it is too dependent on what happens in front of you.

There are plenty of better statistics to judge a player’s ability, but until they appear on baseball cards, television graphics or until the current obsolete collection of announcers, writers and hosts either catch up to the times or are replaced, people will continue to be brainwashed by the Bill Conlins of the world.

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Two Philadelphia Phillies’ Prospects Named to the 2010 XM All-Star Futures Game

Philadelphia Phillies’ propspects Jarred Cosart and Sebastian Valle were named to the 2010 XM All-Star Futures game, featuring 50 of the top prospects in the minors. Cosart, from Texas, joins the United States team while Valle, from Mexico, is one of two catchers on the World team.

Cosart has been decent in his first season at Clearwater, posting a 3.61 FIP to go with 62 strikeouts and 30 walks in 74 innings. He’s not doing as well as last year, due to the decrease in strikeouts and increase in walks (including nine in his last 14.1 innings), but induces ground balls at an exceptional rate.

In their brief writeup for each prospect named to the Futures game, Baseball America touted, “Cosart has as electric an arm as anyone in the minor leagues, with a fastball that frequently sits in the high 90s. If he can stay healthy and refine his command, he can be a frontline starter.”

Valle has gotten off to a hot start, batting .343/.358/.485 in Clearwater, but a good portion of that is BABIP-aided. A .426 BABIP is totally unsustainable. While it’s good to see his strikeout rate remain the same, despite tougher competition, he has been allergic to walks. Just two walks in 173 plate appearances is not acceptable.

Baseball America wrote, “After three nondescript seasons in the Phillies system, Valle has come on like gangbusters in the last two years, and the Phillies have traded away other catching prospects to clear the way for him.”

The game takes place on July 10, featuring a who’s who of prospects, including studs such as Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Manny Machado and Shelby Miller.

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Patience with Ben Francisco: He Is Not All That Bad

It’s hard to go 15 minutes without hearing some fan complain about Ben Francisco. Their solution is usually to cut him or trade him for a bag of balls. For these short-sighted folk who just look at a .218 average and assume the player must be bad, they are wrong.

Their ire of the Phillies outfielders not named Victorino should be fully focused on Ross Gload and Raul Ibanez, who are worse than worthless. 

The main culprit of such a low average is simply a poor batting average of balls in play. Being one of the primary luck indicators, his .231 BABIP shows lady luck has not been on Francisco’s side.

This is over 50 points lower than his career norm. Fortunately, such bad luck has not hampered with him still being a valuable player.

Thanks to a career-high 13.0 percent walk-rate, his on-base percentage is still a respectable .338, which is significantly higher than Ibanez’s .290 and Gload’s .313.

His increased walk-rate does not appear entirely a fluke, as he’s been showing increased plate discipline and control. He’s swinging at fewer balls outside the strike zone and when he does swing, he’s been making more contact.

	Outside strike zone swing %	Overall swing %	Contact %	Swinging-strike %	Pitches/per PA
2011	20.4%	38.6%	83.7%	6.0%	3.91
Career	23.9%	43.2%	80.7%	8.1%	3.78

While Francisco won’t be confused with Willie Mays in the field, he’s still an average defensive player. Even though being an average defensive player doesn’t sound awe-inspiring, it’s certainly better than the albatross that is Ibanez.

All things considered, even with the poor average, he’s managed 0.6 WAR. Admittedly, while that is not very impressive, it’s a bargain when being paid just over a million dollars and compared to Ibanez’s -1.9 at $11.5 million and Gload at -0.1 at $1.6 million.

I know many people are infatuated with having John Mayberry on the team, and I agree he should be, but not at the expense of Francisco. Hopefully, Manuel looks past Ibanez’s ridiculous salary and has the guts to sit him in favor of a younger, cheaper and better Francisco.

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John Kruk Named 2011 Phillies Wall of Fame Inductee over Curt Schilling

In a surprising move, John Kruk will be this year’s inductee to the Phillies’ Wall of Fame.

Many remember Kruk as the charismatic, All-Star first baseman from the early 1990s teams, including the memorable 1993 World Series runner-up team.

Acquired from the San Diego Padres early in the 1989 season for Chris James, Kruk was an on-base machine throughout his six seasons in Philadelphia. His .400 on-base percentage is currently sixth all-time in team history. From 1991 through 1993, he was one of the best first basemen in the game, hitting .311/.407/.472 and making three All-Star game appearances.

However, does a three-year stretch of excellence really trump Curt Schilling? Kruk’s 19.7 WAR (per baseball-reference.com) is 30th in Phillies history among position players and far behind Schilling’s 34.6 WAR, which is fifth among pitchers in team history.

Schilling’s excellence lasted much longer than Kruk’s, spanning nine seasons from 1992 until being traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks midway through 2000. During this time, he posted a 3.35 ERA in 1,659.1 innings, with 61 complete games, 14 shutouts, 1,554 strikeouts and three All-Star selections. Only Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina and Roger Clemens posted convincingly better WAR than Schilling from that period. 

I’m not sure if there’s still a grudge left over from his departure in 2000, when Ed Wade was in charge, but I do not believe the Phillies went solely with the best player available. In time Kruk was going to make it to the Wall of Fame anyway, and congratulations to him on it being this year.

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Domonic Brown Improving in His Second Season

Hopefully Tuesday night’s two home run performance was the breakout game Domonic Brown needed for Charlie Manuel to keep him in the lineup everyday. It also punctuated that he certainly is a better player than he showed in his rookie year.

In just 11 more plate appearances he’s already doubled his home run output from last year. Playing 13 less games, getting more consistent at-bats rather than sparsely pinch-hitting appears to be working across the board.

Not only has the standard triple slash line improved from .210/.257/.355 to .250/.321/.486, almost all of his peripherals have as well. That line could even be better if the BABIP gods looked more favorably on him. A .241 BABIP is well below where it should be at.

The biggest improvement bust be his dramatic increase in contact.

Year	K%(K/PA)	Swinging Strike %	Outside Contact %	Strike Zone Contact %
2010	34.3%	13.5%	50.0%	83.8%
2011	13.6%	7.5%	69.1%	92.3%

On a pitch-by-pitch basis, his biggest improvement has been with the fastball. As a result of working on his stance, mechanics and timing, he’s catching up to, and making contact against the fastball much more often. Last year against fastballs, he swung and missed 22 percent of the time. This year it’s down to a solid nine percent.

However, one problem still lurking is his inability to hit a slider versus a left-handed pitcher. While he’s made strides against lefties’ other pitches, he’s still swinging and missing at almost 56 percent against this pitch. Not much improvement from last year’s 60 percent. And unfortunately for Brown, he’s already faced almost twice as many left-handed sliders compared to last year.

Even though he’s improved his walk-rate, he also could stand to be a little more patient. Currently, he’s swinging at 45.9 percent of pitches he’s seeing, second highest among the Phillies regular lineup. But only 39 percent of all pitches against him have been in the strike zone, fewest among the Phillies regular lineup.

While Brown continues to improve, it seems those who were screaming “bust” have gone into hiding. Sadly, the next time they come out of hiding, he’ll all of a sudden be one of their favorite players.

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Buster Olney Reports Phillies Interested in Michael Cuddyer and Josh Willingham

Earlier today, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported the Phillies inquired about trading for the Minnesota Twins’ Michael Cuddyer and the Oakland Athletics’ Josh Willingham.

I, for one, am not really a proponent of making a trade for an outfielder and would rather just stick with Victorino and Domonic Brown as everyday outfielders, while platooning Ibanez and Francisco. Of course if they are offered a nice player for a relatively insignificant prospect, then sure, go for it.

Upon first hearing the report, my initial first instinct was I’d rather have Willingham. Both players are also free agents at the end of the year. Cuddyer began the season making $11 million, while Willingham was slated for $6 million this season. I’d assume each club, especially the Twins, would chip in a portion of the remaining salary.

Both are 32-year-old, right-handed outfielders who are below average defensively. Cuddyer has a bit more versatility with experience at first, second and third base.

Over his career, Willingham is a more patient hitter with more pop. His .257/.365/.467 line since 2009 edges out Cuddyer’s .273/.339/.462. Durability has been a problem for Willingham, as he has not played more than 140 games since 2007. Still, in 307 games since 2009, Willingham has produced 5.8 WAR compared to Cuddyer’s 4.6 in 370 games.

Lastly, as each player would be used heavily as a platoon player, their split differences must be considered. Against lefties, Willingham has posted a career .261/.380/.495. Cuddyer has been very similar versus lefties, hitting .292/.380/.490. Those are telling me Cuddyer will bring you little more consistency with singles while Willingham will give you more power. Personally, I prefer power, especially on a team that is lacking it.

However, the largest difference between the two lies between their effectiveness against righties. There will naturally come a time where they’d have to face a right-handed pitcher and Willingham’s career .818 OPS is considerably higher than Cuddyer’s .759 OPS.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Examining the Struggles of Roy Oswalt

In the Phillies‘ fanbase, there appears to be a growing worry for Roy Oswalt. It’s a bit surprising to me, as the typical fan will primarily look at ERA in deciding how good a pitcher currently is, that he and his 3.05 ERA is a cause for concern.

Perhaps there’s still enough of those left in the dark-age that three wins and four losses is enough evidence of his struggles. Or last year’s fluky 1.74 ERA stint with the Phillies caused misguided expectations. Typically, the fans are off-base when judging a player using these out-dated stats, but this time, there are legitimate red flags surrounding Oswalt.

While his 3.05 ERA suggests he is having a good year, a 3.86 xFIP and 4.27 SIERA suggest some struggles. The latter of which is behind pitchers such as Mike Leake, Jeremy Guthrie, Doug Fister, Derek Holland, Jake Westbrook, Chris Volstad, Tom Gorzelanny and Chris Capuano. No one would confuse any member of that group as being an ace-caliber pitcher. Last year, his 3.35 SIERA ranked eighth among pitchers with at least 200 innings.

The main culprit in the worse xFIP and SIERA is the obvious drop in strikeouts. His 5.3 strikeouts-per-nine innings is a significant drop from his career 7.38. While only 56 innings can produce unreliable strikeout rates, hitters are indeed making more contact than at any point in his career.

Hitters are currently making contact 90.8 percent of the time in pitches inside the strike zone and 75.8 percent of the time in pitches outside the strike zone compared to 86.1 percent and 60.9 percent, respectively, in his career. In addition, he is getting less swing and misses than ever. His 7.0 swinging-strike percentage is down significantly from his 9.4 percent career mark.

A major cause for the worse contact percentages has to be his drop in velocity. Across the board, his velocity has dropped. From last year, his fastball is down an average on 1.2 miles-per-hour, his slider down .7 miles-per-hour, his changeup down .9 miles-per-hour, and lastly, his curveball is down a huge 2.7 miles-per-hour.

When you consider his previous back issues, his age, and distractions back in Mississippi, this year’s Oswalt probably won’t be nearly as good as we’ve previously seen. With the way it’s going, the Phillies will have a much harder decision on Oswalt’s team-option at the end of this year.

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Don’t Worry. Cliff Lee Is Still a Dominant Pitcher.

After his May 31 start where he gave up six runs, two homers, and three walks in just over five innings, the over-reactors are in full force. Fortunately his name is not Cole Hamels, or people would be looking to cut him already.

As always when someone is doing worse or better, than normal, people will look to find a reason. In my opinion, when you start hearing a multitude of reasons, the chances are much greater that they really have no clue.

Lee’s current 3.98 ERA is no way indicative of his ability. In fact, I believe you can make a better argument that this year could be his best yet. With an xFIP of 2.63 and SIERA of 2.81, good for fourth and third in baseball, respectively, suggests he’s having a great year. They also beat last year’s career-best marks of 3.06 and 3.03.

The main cause for such a jump is his strikeout rate. Increasing over two batters per nine innings will tend to do that. His increased strikeout rate does not appear to be a fluke, either.

His swinging-strike percentage (9.8 percent) and contact percentage (79.5 percent) would be career bests over a full season.

As far as the primary luck stats go, his BABIP is over 40 points higher than his career norm and his home runs to fly ball ratio is a shade higher than normal.

However, I wanted to make it a priority delving into topics I hear people announce as being his problem, such as his control and release points.

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Down on the Farm: Philadelphia Phillies May Prospect Review

At the end of April, I reviewed the first month of most of the prospects in the Phillies system. In small sample size, extreme lines were quite common and hardly anything to base judgment on. Even two months is a small sample but certainly better and can begin to make some stronger opinions.

Note that the list itself is still based of John Sickels’ preseason top 20 prospects. In another month or two, I’ll change it to my own current rankings.

Following the first 20 are some of his honorable mentions. Followed by that are some unmentioned surprises and notables thus far in 2011.

 

Top 20:

1. Domonic Brown, OF (MLB)

Upon recovering from his fractured hamate bone, Brown continued mashing minor league pitching. Between his time at Clearwater and Lehigh Valley, Brown hit .350/.431/.600 with four homers in 72 plate appearances. He also posted a nice nine to 12 strikeout-to-walk ration.

He returned to the majors this month and has shown signs of improvement from last year’s debut. In a very small sample size, 29 plate appearances, he’s hitting .320/.379/.440. However, the best sign in his limited time has been his increase in contact. From 2010 to 2011, he’s dropped his strikeout rate from 38.7 percent to 16.0 percent.

STOCK: Same

 

2. Jonathan Singleton, OF (A+)

Singleton struggled in May after a nice April, bringing is season line to .259/.354/.353. Most troublesome has been his strikeout rate, which is at a very high 33.8 percent. It could just be trouble adjusting to high-A but still needs to be kept an eye on.

STOCK: Same

 

3. Brody Colvin, SP (A+)

In 21.1 innings in 2011, Colvinhas struggled a bit with his command, walking 3.80 batters per nine innings. His strikeouts are down from last year as well at 6.33 batters per nine innings. Like Singleton, it is probably just from adjusting to a higher level. The good news is he’s getting more ground balls than last year.

STOCK: Same

 

4. Jarred Cosart, SP (A+)

Similar to Colvin, he’s striking out less (7.09 K/9) and walking more (3.17 BB/9) in his first year at Clearwater while getting more ground balls.

STOCK: Same

 

5. Trevor May, SP (A+)

May is still striking out a ton of batters (11.55 K/9) in his second year at Clearwater but has dramatically improved his walk rate from last year (7.84 BB/9 to 4.75 BB/9).

STOCK: Same

 

6. Jesse Biddle, SP (A)

His velocity is still inconsistent, which is to be expected, but still shows promise. Biddle has been respectable so far in 2011, striking out 47 and walking 28 in 50.1 innings while only giving up one homer.

STOCK: Same

 

7. Sebastian Valle, C (A+)

Valle rebounded in May in a big way, mashing to a .385/.394/.948 line. Even though his strikeout rate remains the same this year, his walk rate has taken a nosedive. Two walks in 131 plate appearances is unacceptable. 

STOCK: Same

 

8. Domingo Santana, OF (A)

Like Valle, Santana’s walk rate as plummeted this year, going from 14.4 percent to only 5.7 percent. It would help if he was making higher contact, but his strikeout rate is still extremely high and disappointing at 37.6 percent. The good news is he is only two homers away from matching last year’s total of eight in over 200 less at-bats. His line thus far in 2011 is .284/.331/.504.

STOCK: Same

 

9. Vance Worley, SP (AAA/MLB)

For a more extensive writeup on Worley, please see my previous article (“Vance Worley: The Next Kyle Kendrick?”). Worley is showing improvement while in Triple-A, increasing his strikeouts by almost a full two batters per nine innings.

He’s filled in adequately in his brief time in the minors, although not to the extreme some like to believe. Worley is not missing too many bats in the majors (5.8 percent swinging strike) but has still done enough to project as a possible No. 4 guy in the future. 

STOCK: Up

 

10. Julio Rodriguez, SP (A+)

After dominating in Lakewood last year, Rodriguez has struggled a bit adjusting to this year’s higher level. His strikeout rate has been almost cut in half at 7.8K/9 in 55.1 innings. His ground-out rate is the lowest its been since 2008.

STOCK: Same

 

11. Cesar Hernandez, 2B (A+)

One thing was for sure, he could not have done any worse in May as he did in April. His 2011 line remains disappointing at .204/.243/.226. However, some of that is due to a career low .236 BABIP. Some leeway is needed as the jump from Williamsport to Clearwater is pretty significant, undoubtedly accounting for less walks and more strikeouts. 

STOCK: Same

 

12. Justin De Fratus, RP (AA)

De Fratus’ early command struggles this year appear to be behind him. He blazed through May striking out 16 and walking only four in 14.1 innings. Drawing four times as many ground-outs than air-outs in May is amazing.

STOCK: Same

 

13. Josh Zeid, SP (AA)

Zeid struggled badly in may, posting a 8.64 ERA with 10 strikeouts and nine walks in 16.2 innings. It’s hard to harshly penalize a player for skipping Clearwater and making the jump to Reading. His 4.27 FIP is up from 2.85 last year.

STOCK: Down

 

14. J.C. Ramirez, SP (AA)

I read a previous Bleacher Report article suggesting J.C. Ramirez is doing better than last year, solely because of his 2.83 ERA. Unfortunately, that is not true. In fact, I, and I’m sure other baseball people would be more impressed with last year’s 5.45 ERA. Why? because you have to look at the peripherals to get a strong sense.

In his second year at Reading, his strikeout rate should not be significantly dropping. Going from 6.95K/9 to an alarming 3.33K/9. While his walk-rate and ground-out rate remain the same, you won’t be considered a strong prospect with Kendrick-like strikeout numbers. Expect a rise in ERA once his very low .214 BABIP regresses to the mean.

STOCK: Down

 

15. Perci Garner, SP

Has not pitched in 2011. Will probably begin in Williamsport soon.

STOCK: Same

16. Austin Hyatt, SP (AA)

Hyatt is maintaining good numbers in his first full year at Reading, following last year’s mid-season promotion. His strikeout rate and walk rate remain similar to last year. His six homers allowed in 53 innings is concerning.

STOCK: Same

 

17. Jiwan James, OF (A+)
James is still looking like the same player as last year- striking out too much (25.3 percent) and walking too little (5.8 percent). Thus far, he’s hitting .247/.294/.368 in just over 200 plate appearances.

STOCK: Same

 

18. Aaron Altherr, OF (A)
Altherr’s May was just as bad as his April. He is obviously struggling with the advancement to Lakewood. He’s still hitting poorly at .189/.259/.250 in 148 plate appearances. His strikeouts (34.1 percent) are still much worse than last year and far too high. He shows good speed when he does manage to get on base, going 11 for 11 in stolen base attempts.

STOCK: Down

 

19. Leandro Castro, OF (A+)

Castro continued hitting well in May to bring his current line to a respectable .281/.318/.473. His walks remain far too low—only five free passes in 178 plate appearances. However, he has shown power improvement with 6 homers.

STOCK: Same

20. Matt Rizzotti, 1B (AA)

Rizzotti improved on his stellar April, hitting .316/.420/.568 with six homers in May. He’s currently leading the entire Eastern League in OPS (.962).

STOCK: Same

Honorable Mentions:

21. Phillippe Aumont, RP (AA)

Aumont continued his rebirth as a reliever with a very impressive 16 strikeouts and just two walks in 13 innings in May. His much-improved 2011 currently sits at a 2.35 FIP, 3.04 ERA, 32 strikeouts, six walks and two homers allowed in 23.2 innings. He is also producing ground-out more than ever.

STOCK: Up

22. Drew Carpenter, RP (AAA)

Capped off by a great Memorial Day performance, Carpenter had a strong May, striking out 24 while walking seven with no homers allowed in 19.1 innings. He’s producing career bests strikeout rate (9.46K/9) and FIP (2.24).

STOCK: Up

 

23. Zach Collier, OF (A)

Collier started the year off poorly, but turned it around strongly in May, hitting .301/.377/.430. He appears fully recovered from last year’s wrist injury and is making strong improvements from 2009, increasing his walks and decreasing his strikeouts. He also has 12 stolen bases in 16 attempts.

STOCK: Up

24. Kelly Dugan, OF

Has not started his 2011 season.

STOCK: Same

25. Freddy Galvis, SS (AA)

Galvis’ May was pretty identical to his April, bringing his 2011 line to .247/.307/.387. He’s shown improvements in both walk rate and strikeout rate. His four homers is only one away from matching his career-high set last year.

STOCK: Same

26. Harold Garcia, 2B (AA)

Unfortunately, Garcia tore his ACL toward the end of April and will miss the rest of the season.

STOCK: Down

27. Tyson Gillies, OF (AA)

Gillies has been nursing hip, groin and hamstring injuries so far this year and has not played any games.

STOCK: Same

 

28. Mario Hollands, SP (A)

Hollands’ 5.33 ERA in May is not indicative of how well he pitched. He’s pitching well in his first year at Lakewood, posting stellar strikeout (7.57K/9) and walk (2.8BB/9) rates, good for a 3.46 FIP.

STOCK: Up

29. Bryan Morgado, RP (A)

A fourth-round pick last year, he’s struggled a bit—striking out just five and walking four in 8.2 innings. He did not pitch in May.

STOCK: Same

30. Jon Pettibone, SP (A+)

Pettibone continued from his strong April. In 32.2 innings, he posted a 1.93 ERA with 27 strikeouts and just five walks. In his last two starts, he allowed just one run in 13 innings while striking out 13 and walking just two. His FIP currently sits at 2.83 in 2011.

STOCK: Up

 

31. Cameron Rupp, C (A)

Rupp continued his struggles in May, bringing his season line to .212/.308/.283. He is striking out too much.

STOCK: Same

32. Michael Schwimer, RP (AAA)

The big righty racked up more strikeouts, 22 in just 16.2 innings in May. Unfortunately his control has much to be desired (4.23BB/9), and he’s getting less ground balls.

STOCK: Same

Other 2011 Surprises and Notables:

33. Tyler Cloyd, SP (A+)

Cloyd continued his solid season. He’s currently sitting at a 2.89 FIP, 2.61 ERA, 38 strikeouts and just seven walks in 41.1 innings.

STOCK: Up

 

34. Ebelin Lugo, RP (A+)

Lugo is striking out a good amount (8.16K/9) and walking few (1.26 BB/9), but his flyball tendencies have lead him getting hurt by the long ball. He’s given up four homers so far in 28.2 innings.

STOCK: Same

 

35. Joe Savery, DH (A+)

After a torrid April, Savery was due for some regression, producing .235/.340/.259 in May. He has excellent control of the strike zone (16 walks to 21 strikeouts) but has not produced much power.

STOCK: Up

36. Geancarlo Mendez, 1B (A)

Like Savery, Mendez suffered from some regression in May. His .231/.308/.380 month brings his season total to .261/.335./.404. He also has good control of the strike zone (16 walks to 22 strikeouts).

STOCK: Same

 

37. Michael Stutes, RP (MLB)

Stutes has continued his strikeout ways in his brief major league stint. In 10.2 innings, he’s accumulated 12 strikeouts with a very impressive 12.1 swinging strike percentage. Unfortunately, walks (5.06BB/9) and flyball tendencies (26.9 ground-ball percentage) will come back to hurt him.

STOCK: Up

 

38. Garett Claypool, SP (A)

Claypool continued his impressive season in May. In 36 innings, he posted a 2.17 FIP with 43 strikeouts and just eight walks. In his last two starts, he’s has 18 strikeouts and two walks in 14 innings while just giving up one run. However, he still must get more ground balls.

STOCK: Up

 

39. Ervis Manzanillo, SP (A)

Manzanillo struggled a bit in May after an impressive April. In 28.2 innings, he struck out 22, walked 13 and gave up three homers—good for a 4.39 FIP. Like many before him, he’s struggling getting ground balls.

STOCK: Up

40. Cody Overbeck, 3B (AA)

He didn’t have as good of a May, but he’s still leading the Eastern League in homers with 13.

STOCK: Up

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