How Much Did the Phillies’ Offense Miss Chase Utley?

It took only four games for Chase Utley to do what the combination of Wilson Valdez, Pete Orr and Michael Martinez could not do in over 40 games—hit a home run.

It’s been no secret the Phillies offense has struggled this season. Replacing one of baseball’s best second basemen with a trio of replacement-level players is a tall order.

But exactly how much did they miss Utley?

As a group, Valdez, Orr and Martinez combined for a .226/.272/.277 line in 168 plate appearances. Compared to every other team’s second-base production, the Phillies were 28th in OPS, 24th in OBP and one of only two teams without a home run.

Anyone with a little baseball knowledge can tell those are atrocious numbers.

Altogether, they produced a .248 weighted on-base average (wOBA). In their 168 plate appearances, this equates to almost 10 runs, about one full win, below an average player.

However, Chase Utley is certainly not an average player. Even though he was not fully himself last year, his .373 wOBA was fourth-best among second basemen.

If Utley had produced the same as last year in those 168 plate appearances he missed, he would have been worth just over seven runs above average. Taking it a step further, if he produced at his career mark of .387, he would have been worth nine runs above average.

Doing simple math, going from at least seven to nine runs above average to about 10 runs below average is a difference of 17 to 19 additional runs, or almost two full wins, the Phillies missed while Utley was injured.

Instead of seventh in the league in runs scored, they would be sitting at either third or fourth.

With the return of a healthy Utley, the Phillies are certainly capable of returning to one of the league’s best offenses.

They still probably are not as good as the Cardinals‘ or Reds‘ offenses, but certainly better than the one we seen so far in 2011.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Charlie Manuel Making Big Mistakes This Past Week

Charlie Manuel, like basically all managers, will make the occasional mistake.

But when it’s obviously egregious and repeated, it should be called out.

Since Shane Victorino’s injury last week, Manuel has opted for using either Wilson Valdez or Michael Martinez to hit 2nd in the batting order. Using your worst offensive player in the lineup, outside of the pitcher, as your second hitter is flat out wrong.

Not surprisingly, they have combined for a wretched four for 25 stretch with zero walks, good for a .160 OBP.

Optimally, a team’s best hitters should occupy the first, second and fourth spots in the lineup. I hardly think anyone in their right mind would classify Valdez or Martinez as one of the Phillies‘ top three hitters.

The other significant mistake occurred in the game against the Cardinals on May 17. In the highest leverage situations of the game, Manuel decided to stick with Danys Baez against Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, followed by inserting J.C. Romero against the switch-hitting Lance Berkman, leaving their best reliever in the pen.

Perhaps he was banking on Berkman not being able to tell right from left and decide to bat left-handed against Romero.

Using Romero in the wrong spot has been a reoccurring theme. He managed to do it again today against the Rangers while trailing 1-0 entering the eighth inning.

Presumably not wanting to use three relievers in an inning, Manuel blindly hoped J.C. Romero could get by right-handed Adrian Beltre and get to lefty Mitch Moreland before substituting him for Herndon.

The plan backfired as Beltre doubled and subsequently scored.

Simply put, Romero should never face a righty. Yet, astonishingly, he’s faced almost twice as many righties than lefties this season.

A significant part of any coach or manager’s job is to put his players in the best position to succeed, optimize his rotations or lineups, and make necessary adjustments.

This week displayed Manuel’s shortcomings in these areas.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Vance Worley: The Next Kyle Kendrick?

With a 1.13 ERA in 16 innings so far this year, many are under the impression that Vance Worley is more than what he is.

It’s hard to turn a corner without someone harping that he should be the fifth starter instead of Blanton. But is he really deserving of it, other than a deflated ERA? When looking deeper, even in such a small sample size, I’d say he’s on a closer level to that of Kyle Kendrick than being an improvement over Blanton.

And surely, a sane man would not want Kendrick as the Phillies’ fifth starter.

For the record, I do believe Worley is and will be a better player than Kyle Kendrick, but I think its necessary to temper the expectations of many Phillies fans out there.

Like Worley, Kendrick’s rookie season ERA was better than his true ability. Posting a 3.87 ERA is 121 innings led many to think he had some sort of upside as a potentially good starter. I even remember one delusional fan call in WIP and say he could be like another Tom Glavine!

They did not want to believe the naysayers who would point to his 4.94 FIP, 4.57 xFIP and very low 3.64 K/9 as signs that his ERA was mostly a fluke. In Worley’s brief major league career, his ERA, 1.24, is also much lower than his 3.17 FIP and 3.55 xFIP. Although those are still very respectable numbers and much better than Kendrick, there are reasons to believe those are heavily influenced by good luck so far as well.

His 1.24 career ERA has been heavily influenced by a ridiculously unsustainable 95.2 left on base percentage. To put that in some perspective, the highest career LOB% for a starter in the history of baseball is Whitey Ford at 77.9 percent. Roy Halladay’s career LOB% is 73.3 percent.

His ERA, and FIP and xFIP have also been deflated due to a very low and unsustainable .200, about 100 points below the major league average.

An inflated strikeout rate is another reason for a luckier FIP and xFIP. This is also where the comparisons to Kendrick will begin.

Even though Worley has had a 8.38 K/9 in his 29 innings in the majors, signals point that it should be much lower. His career 86.4 contact percentage and 5.5 swinging strike percentage, a better indicator of future strikeout rate, screams of a K/9 that should be much lower.

Looking at these numbers blindly, you would not be able to tell who was who from him and Kendrick.

Their major league career numbers:

Player	Swinging Strike Percent	Contact Percent	Contact Percent pitches in zone	Contact Percent pitches out of zone
Vance         Worley	5.5%	86.4%	92.2%	77.3%
Kyle Kendrick	4.9%	88.7%	93.2%	75.6%

One thing Worley has over Kendrick is coming up through the system, at least Worley showed improvement or steadiness rather than decline like Kendrick.

Being just 23, he still has room for some improvement in the coming years, probably to a capable No. 4. For now, for this season though, I don’t expect him to be some magical find that is something other than a spot starter.

Regression to the mean will inevitably occur, just be prepared.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Why All the Hate for Domonic Brown?

Domonic Brown has been tearing up the minors once again and his return is inevitable. Still, there’s a large contingent of Phillies fans that have absolutely no faith in him because of his lackluster 70 plate appearances last year, a good portion of which came as a pinch hitter.

They’d rather just sit and hope the trio of Ibanez, Mayberry and Francisco hold the fort down.

In Ibanez’s case I find it hard to believe Brown can be any worse than a .232/.289/.360 line along with terrible defense. Only one player in baseball, Juan Pierre, has put up a worse WAR.

Sure, Brown struggled in his very limited time in the majors last year going .210/.257/.355 and 24 strikeouts. To many, apparently that is enough to label his a bust. Apparently, no other prospect who has started his career off poor has ever amounted to anything.

If you don’t start out like Pujols or Braun, you won’t be good. As we all know, Jeff Francouer and his .432/.439/.827 line his first 82 plate appearances is a bona fide star and future hall of famer.

Many players in the past have proven you can have a bad start to your career and still be a great player.

Player	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Willie Mays	32	26	.038	.219	.154
Mickey Mantle	56	51	.216	.273	.333
Eddie Matthews	61	58	.224	.262	.397
Ryne Sandberg	96	90	.189	.213	.278
Cal Ripken Jr.	40	39	.128	.150	.128
Rickey Henderson	201	179	.246	.301	.291
Pete Rose	45	38	.158	.273	.211

If it was up to Phillies fans’ criteria, Mike Schmidt would never have deserved to be a starter after hitting under .200 through his first two years and 483 plate appearances. He turned out to be a nice player.

The same goes for Chase Utley, whose .221/.277/.337 start in 94 plate appearances didn’t foretell a future best-in-the-league second baseman. 

With the Padres, Shane Victorino was awful in his first big league season as well—hitting .151/.232/.178 in 83 plate appearances. 

Young guys prospects like Domonic Brown need at bats. That’s the only way they will get better and prove how good they are. You don’t become a top prospect in baseball by accident. He has the athletic ability and skill to prove his shortsighted doubters wrong.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Down on the Farm: Philadelphia Phillies April Prospect Review

Using John Sickels’ list for the Philadelphia Phillies‘ top 20 prospects for 2011, I am doing a quick review through the first month of the baseball season.

Following the first 20 are some of his honorable mentions. Followed by that are some unmentioned surprises and notables thus far in 2011.

Top 20:

1. Domonic Brown, OF (Triple-A)
Brown recently started his rehab assignment with  Clearwater, the Phillies’ Class A+ affiliate,  after fracturing his hamate bone in his right hand in spring training.  Brown has looked good in his brief time in Clearwater, posting a .368/.429/1.165 line with 2 homers In 5 games. He was just activated from the disabled list and optioned to Triple-A affiliate, Lehigh Valley. His major league return is sorely needed as Raul Ibanez continues struggling.

2. Jonathan Singleton, 1B (A+)
The young first baseman got promoted to Class A Advanced, Clearwater Threshers after tearing up Class A last year in Lakewood. The transition has had some good signs and bad, which is pretty typical, especially this early in the season. He’s posted a .306/.424/.832 line in 15 games, although it has benefited from a high BABIP (.407 entering his 14th game). He continues to show good discipline, walking 8 times. However, his strikeouts has risen dramatically with 17 on the season.

3. Brody Colvin, SP (A+)
Colvin has spent almost all of the month on the disabled list with a back injury. He only pitched 2 innings, giving up 3 hits, 2 earned runs, and a walk.

4. Jarred Cosart, SP (A+)
Cosart has transitioned well in his promotion to Clearwater from Lakewood. In 28.1 innings, he’s tallied a 3.81 ERA and 3.20 FIP with a respectable 23 strikeouts and 9 walks. His strikeout rate has dipped from last year, but he’s throwing more groundballs as well.

5. Trevor May, SP (A+)
May struggled badly with his control last year in Clearwater, posting a 7.84 BB/9 in 70 innings. It’s improved to 4.85 BB/9 in 26 innings. His strikeout rate remains solid at 9.00 K/9. His 5.54 ERA is not indicative of his season thus far as he’s posted a 3.43 FIP.

6. Jesse Biddle, SP (Single-A)
Biddle has continued his control problems that began last year upon his promotion to the short-season New York – Penn league. He’s still striking out batters with 15 in 16.1 innings, but his 12 walks is cause for concern. His ERA is an atrocious 7.16, while his FIP is an unspectacular 4.36.

7. Sebastian Valle , C (A+)
Valle continues struggling offensively. His strike zone judgment is still lacking, After a 101 to 27 strikeout to walk ratio in 447 at-bats last year, his 16 to 1 mark in 63 at-bats this year does not show improvement. His struggles with the strike zone have produced a .254/.277/.381 line through 17 games.

8. Domingo Santana, OF (Single-A)
Like Valle, Santana struggles with the strike zone. He is picking right up where he left off last year in Lakewood, striking out 26 times while only walking 3 times in 70 at-bats. Through 18 games he is hitting .229/.260/.371.

9. Vance Worley, SP (Triple-A/MLB)
Worley recently got called up to the majors after an injury to Joe Blanton. Even though he did not give up any runs in 6 innings, his 4 walks were unimpressive. He threw 5 strikeouts, but did not get many swinging strikes (2.0 percent). He did well in Triple-A, posting a 2.78 ERA and 3.77 FIP with 25 strikeouts in 22.2 innings. His upside is limited to a 4th or 5th starter.

10. Julio Rodriguez, SP (A+)
Rodriguez has done well for the most part in his first season in Clearwater. 20 strikeouts in 18.2 innings is good to see. However, 9 walks and an inability to induce grounders is concerning. 3.52 FIP and 2.89 ERA are decent as well.

11. Cesar Hernandez, 2B (A+)
Hernandez has gotten off to a bad start moving up to Clearwater after skipping Lakewood this year. A very low .195 BABIP has contributed to an ugly .151/.196/.170 line. He’s also regressed in his walk rate (6.3 percent) and strikeout rate (23.7 percent).

12. Justin De Fratus, RP (Double-A)
De Fratus has struggled early with his command, walking 7 in 11.1 innings, but has racked up 10 strikeouts and has been inducing more ground balls. Without giving up a homer thus far, his FIP remains strong at 3.29.

13. Josh Zeid, SP (Double-A)
Zeid skipped Clearwater this year to begin the year in Reading. He has struggled slightly with the jump, producing a 4.35 ERA, 3.73 FIP, and 1.50 WHIP. His strikeout rate (6.97 K/9) has dropped and his walk rate (4.35 BB/9) has risen. He’s also struggled inducing ground balls.

14. J.C. Ramirez, SP (Double-A)
In his 2nd year at Reading, Ramirez’s strikeout rate has all but disappeared. Dropping from 6.95 K/9 to 2.05 K/9 is alarming. He has benefited from good luck with a .164 BABIP and 1.03 ERA despite a 3.81 FIP.

15. Perci Garner, SP
Has not pitched in 2011 yet. No word on when he will begin his season.

16. Austin Hyatt, SP (Double-A)
Hyatt has had a decent tart to the season, picking up where he left off in Reading last year. 23 strikeouts and 9 walks in 27 innings is fine. He still does not induce enough grounders but has improved on it so far this year. 3.00 ERA and 3.46 FIP are fine.

17. Jiwan James, OF (A+)
James’s 2011 is looking very similar to 2010. He still struggles with his bat control, striking out 17 times while only walking 5 times in 84 at-bats. The toolsy outfielder currently has a .262/.311/.393 line after 20 games.

18. Aaron Altherr, OF (Single-A)
After striking out only 35 times in 209 at-bats last year, they have skyrocketed to 26 in just 73 at-bats so far this year. There’s no doubt the loss of contact contributes to his .192/.268/.274 line. One positive has been his 6 stolen bases without getting caught.

19. Leandro Castro, OF (A+)
Unlike the other toolsy prospects in this review, Castro has actually started the season hitting well. Hitting .296/.324/.507 with 3 homers and 3 steals is good to see. Slight improvement in strikeout rate (16.9 percent) is nice. However, he must improve on his 2 walks in 74 plate appearances.

20. Matt Rizzotti, 1B (Double-A)
Maintaining a .452 OBP and 1.087 OPS was a long shot, but Rizzotti is still hitting very well. .333/.383/.556 in 23 games is solid. He will probably get another crack at AAA in the summer and could find his way to a call up when September comes.

Honorable Mentions:

21. Phillippe Aumont, RP (Double-A)
Transitioning Aumont into a starter in 2010 was obviously a failure, but he may have found his place as a late-inning reliever. In 10.2 innings, he has shown remarkable improvement striking out 16 and walking 4 while inducing lots of grounders. A 1.32 FIP and 2.53 ERA are both excellent.

22. Drew Carpenter, SP (Triple-A)
Carpenter’s improved control so far in 2011 has led to a good start. Waking just 2 and striking out 11 in 15 innings has led to a 2.40 ERA and 3.00 FIP. It should also be noted that unlike last year, he has made 6 of his 7 appearances as a reliever.

23. Zach Collier, OF (Single-A)
Collier continues his 2010 Lakewood struggles, with a .156/.224/.244 line in 12 games. Pretty much the same as last year.

24. Kelly Dugan, OF
Has not started his 2011 season.

25. Freddy Galvis, SS (Double-A)
Galvis won’t be known for his bat, but he still must improve on it to possibly contribute in the majors someday. .256/.312/.360 in 22 games is much of the same.

26. Harold Garcia, 2B (Double-A)
Garcia has been fine in 2011, posting a .300/.327/.480 line. Would like to see his walk rise throughout the season.

27. Tyson Gillies, OF (Double-A)
Gillies has been nursing hip, groin and hamstring injuries so far this year and has not played any games.

28. Mario Hollands, SP (Single-A)
A 10th round pick last year, Hollands has struggled a bit with homers in the beginning of 2011, giving up 4 in 29.1 innings. 22 strikeouts and 9 walks are not bad. His 2.45 ERA is a bit off from his 4.39 FIP.

29. Bryan Morgado, RP (Single-A)
A 4th round pick last year, he’s struggled a bit- striking out just 5 and walking 4 in 8.2 innings.

30. Jon Pettibone, SP (A+)
Pettibone has done a good job limiting homers by not allowing any in 29 innings. Good luck could also be playing a roll with that as he is not much of a ground-ball pitcher. 20 strikeouts and 7 walks have aided in a 1.55 ERA and 2.54 FIP.

31. Cameron Rupp, C (Single-A)
The Phillies’ third-round pick in 2010, Rupp has struggled In 201. He’s had trouble making contact, striking out 16 times in 54 at-bats, leading to a .222/.300/.315 line.

32. Michael Schwimer, RP (Triple-A)
Schwimer continues piling up strikeouts with 13 in 11 innings. However, lack of control (7 walks) and few groundballs hurt his stock.

Other 2011 Surprises and Notables:

33. Tyler Cloyd, SP (A+)
An 18th round pick in 2008, Cloyd continues improving his control. Walking just 3 while striking out 23 in 23 innings has led to a strong 2.74 ERA and 2.16 FIP.

34. Ebelin Lugo, RP (A+)
Signed as a 16-year-old in 2007, Lugo is still very young and has shown slow, but consistent improvement each year. 2011 appears no different. In 14.2 innings, he’s struck out 12 while walking 3 and allowing only 1 homer. So far it is good for a 3.68 ERA and 3.06 FIP.

35. Joe Savery, DH (A+)
The former first round pick in 2007 failed as a starter, but could possibly have a second chance as a hitter. He’s begun 2011 mashing at a .440/.455/.607 clip. He’s still allergic to walks with only 3 in 87 plate appearances, but makes great contact, striking out only 7 times.

36. Geancarlo Mendez, 1B (Single-A)
After a very successful 2009, Mendez struggled in 2010. He has rebounded in 2011, exhibiting decent plate control with a 6-to-9 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 63 plate appearances. A fortunate .425 BABIP has led to a .351/.413/.886 line. He’s also been successful in all 6 stolen base attempts.

37. Michael Stutes, RP (Triple-A)
Stutes was doing well in Lehigh Valley before making his major league debut recently. He’s been a good strikeout guy over his career in the minors and continued that trend in 2011, striking out 14 in 10 innings while walking 4. However, he must improve his ground-ball rate if he wants to stay in the majors. 

38. Garett Claypool, SP (Single-A)
Lakewood seems to always have a surprise or two each year. Claypool may be their surprise for 2011. The 11th round pick in 2010 has racked up 23 strikeouts and 5 walks in 18 innings. He is throwing too many fly balls, which has led to 3 homers, but a 2.00 ERA and 3.64 FIP are enough to keep an eye on him.

39. Ervis Manzanillo, SP (Single-A)
The Venezuelan is very young (19 years old) but posts strong strikeout numbers (20 in 17.1 innings). His 8 walks are concerning, but still plenty of room to improve. His 5.71 ERA is inflated by a very unlucky 36.4 left on base percentage. A  2.28 FIP is eye-popping.

40. Cody Overbeck, 3B (Double-A)
Not much of a prospect, but Overbeck has started off the year hot hitting 8 homers in 23 games, good for a .337/.380/.675 line. Still strikes out too much (29 percent strikeout rate).

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Wilson Valdez Back to Normal

It took awhile, but Wilson Valdez masquerading as a good player in 2011 has come to an end.

Lady Luck can only be on your side for so long. With his 0-for-one performance April 26, his on-base percentage finally dipped below .300.

For whatever reason, Valdez has a special place in many fans’ hearts. Looking past his poor power, on-base percentage and persistent grounding into double plays, some even held the ridiculous notion he was the team’s MVP in 2010.

The early part of spring training this year only added fuel to those fans’ fire.

For what seemed like most of the preseason, Valdez was hitting over .400. Fans clamored how he should be the clear starter over an uninspiring group of Pete Orr, Michael Martinez, Luis Castillo and Josh Barfield.

Even with ending the preseason in a one-for-22 stretch, some held the notion that the injured Chase Utley would not be significantly missed with Valdez the starting second basemen.

Like in Spring Training, Valdez started the year off hot, going nine-for-21 with a .429 average and on-base percentage. This temporarily kept the fallacious notion that he is, in fact, a good player, or that he is improving.

Since that start, I’ve been waiting for regression to the mean to come full circle. 

Valdez’s current 2011 line is .250/.297/.300. That is bad. Tack on his average defense, he is already at -.3 to -.5 wins above replacement, depending if you prefer Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference.

Aside from the occasional seeing eye single, he rarely gets the ball past the infield. When he’s had the chance to use his power, by pulling the ball or hitting it to center, he’s just mashed it into the ground at a 78.6 and 89.5 percent clip, respectively.

The few times he has hit flies and line drives this year, it’s been to opposite field where his already meager power is all but wiped away.

There’s a better chance of the Kansas City Royals winning the World Series this year than Valdez hitting an opposite field homer.

With all the ground balls, I expect his ground-into-double-play rate to regress toward last year’s number as well. So far this year, he’s hit into a double play 19 percent of all his opportunities. That’s still a bad number, but lower than his third-worst in baseball 24 percent last year.

With a double play worth roughly .35 runs, he cost the team almost four runs last year, over one third of a win.

When I think of Wilson Valdez, I can’t help but think of the atrocious utility men who came before him in the Phillies organization; players who, in no right mind, would ever be confused or considered a potential team MVP.

He is no different than such luminaries as Tomas Perez, Kevin Sefcik, Alex Arias and Kevin Jordan. Sure, Tomas Perez may have been a fan favorite because of his personality, but neither he nor any of those others were ever put on a pedestal as something other than what he was.

I know lot of you post-2007 fans might have never heard of such players, but believe me, they weren’t good.

With Valdez’s inevitable crash to normalcy, I can once again be satisfied that all is right with the world again—at least from perspective of replacement-level players showing their true ability.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies 1/8th of the Season Completed Review

The season is already an eighth of the way over, the Phillies are 14-6 and leading the NL East by 1.5 games over the Florida Marlins. Their record is also good for a tie with the Colorado Rockies for the best record in all of baseball.

With the aid of an unsustainable, league-leading BABIP, the offense got off to a blistering start scoring 54 runs in the first eight games. In their last 12, their BABIP has regressed to a more sensible .299, and as a result they haven not scored more than four runs in a game. Overall, their 94 runs scored entering April 24th are good for sixth in the National League. However, there are signs suggesting they were not quite as good as that number suggests. Their low 7.6 percent walk rate has led to a mediocre .322 on-base percentage, and they haven’t shown enough power to make up for it. A .379 slugging percentage and .119 isolated slugging percentage are fifth and fourth worst in the National League, respectively. On the positive side, their 18.8 percent strikeout rate is good for second in the National League.

Individually, Placido Polanco has gotten off to the best start on the team. Even though he’s been BABIP-fortunate (.370 vs. career .313), it’s led to a sizzling .367/.425/.494 line. He’s also posting career best marks in walk rate and strikeout rate. ZIPS projects .297/.342/..398 for rest of the season.

Aside from Polanco, no other offensive player has gotten off to a hot start. You can make a case for Mayberry, but 18 plate appearances is hardly enough to make a judgment on. Shane Victorino is currently leading the position players in wins above replacement with 1.0. He’s had a solid start, posting a .295/.360/.462 line with a career-high 9.2 percent walk rate.

Of the regular starters, Raul Ibanez has gotten off to a horrendous start and Charlie Manuel should seriously consider platooning him soon. I don’t want to delve heavily into his poor start as I recently wrote a more in-depth article on him.

Ben Francisco has not been impressive. He’s been a bit unlucky posting a .259 BABIP, leading to a low .247 average and .309 on-base percentage. Surprisingly, and sadly, he’s second on the team in isolated slugging percentage. His rest of the season ZIPS projection of .265/.327/.436 with 11 more homers in 359 plate appearances looks pretty accurate.

Many people are complaining about Jimmy Rollins’ lack of RBI, but like many intelligent baseball people know accumulating RBIs in itself is not a good way to judge a player’s abilities. His glove is still superb and his 11.2 percent walk rate is a continuation of last year’s career best 10.2 percent walk rate. His power has not appeared yet, but I expect it to rebound soon.

Valdez is again showing he is nothing more than a replacement-level player. The GIDP machine is posting an absurd 68.1 percent ground ball rate, second highest in the majors. Expect more GIDPs and barely above .300 on-base percentage with little to no power. It’s amazing the love such a bad player gets in Philly. I can’t wait for Utley’s return.

Ryan Howard is a notorious slow starter, so I’ll give him a slight break for now. But a .330 on-base percentage is unacceptable.

Fortunately, as expected, the Phillies have lived off of their strong pitching. Their 68 runs given up is second best in all of baseball and leading the National League. Even though their ERA is third in National League, their 2.90 FIP and 3.42 xFIP are good for first and second, in the league. Limiting walks and home runs allowed has been a huge part of that success. Giving up only 2.7 walks per nine inning leads the league and their 50.3 ground ball percentage is behind only the Braves.

Not surprisingly, when you break down those numbers by starters only, the Phillies have been head and shoulders above the rest of the league. They lead the league in: Strikeouts per nine innings, walks per nine innings, strikeout-to-walk ratio, home runs per nine innings, WHIP, FIP and xFIP.

The big four of Halladay, Hamels, Lee and Oswalt have been as advertised. Oswalt’s been a bit lucky .210 BABIP, resulting in a lower than normal 1.88 ERA. On the other hand, Blanton and to a lesser extent, Lee, have been a bit unlucky. Blanton has suffered from a high .357 BABIP and 63.5 left on base percentage. His 3.58 FIP and 3.47 xFIP suggests he is pitching much better than his 5.92 ERA suggests. His impressive 55.6 percent ground ball rate is a huge jump from last year’s 41.9 percent.

As far as relievers go, Antonio Bastardo has been nothing short of dominant against both lefties and righties. 14 strikeouts per nine innings, .78 WHIP, 1.27 FIP and 1.92 xFIP is just silly. I wanted him to be used as the lefty out of the pen last year instead of Romero. Hopefully Manuel finally realizes how much better Bastardo is than Romero.

Jose Contreras has done very well as closer. A 2.30 FIP, 3.32 xFIP with 10.13 strikeouts per nine innings are all very impressive. 

Danys Baez, Kyle Kendrick and David Herndon have been much worse than their ERA might indicate. All three have the fabulous combination of an inability to strike people out and walk too many. Combined, they have a 5.17 FIP and 5.78 xFIP. They are as replacement-level as replacement-level can get.

Ryan Madson has been his usual self, not much else to say.

May holds a tough stretch of the schedule as the Phillies have two series against the Braves in addition to the Marlins, Cardinals, Rockies, Rangers and Reds. It makes it that much more important to beat up on the Diamondbacks, Mets and Nationals coming up.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

« Previous Page