Six Man Rotation Is the Way To Go for Philadelphia Phillies

With Pedro Martinez supposedly ready to join the big-league club after a fantastic outing in Reading (AA) on Wednesday night, and possibly in line for a start next Tuesday in Chicago, the Phillies have six guys capable of being in the starting rotation.

All things considered, this is a good problem to have. 

At a time of the season when many playoff contenders are trying to figure out where they might be able to find an extra arm for the rotation or the bullpen, the Phillies have too many arms to go around. 

So why not let all six of them pitch?

The rumors have been swirling that rookie J.A. Happ would be headed back to bullpen (where he started the year), but after throwing his second complete game shutout of the year on Wednesday night, it seems foolish to banish the potential Rookie of the Year.

By the way, his two complete games put him one ahead of a certain World Series MVP.

If you want to simply cut out the weakest link in the rotation, it seems that Moyer should be the one to go. His inconsistency and age are working against him, but the Phillies don’t seem willing to move him into the bullpen (where he probably would not be effective), and they certainly won’t option him to Triple-A.

So that leaves the possibility of putting Pedro in the bullpen and leaving the rotation as is. I think this is the best solution because I’m not convinced Pedro can pitch well for multiple innings at the big-league level right now, but he could be valuable as a power-arm in the ‘pen.

However, the Phillies seem convinced that Pedro is going to be a starter.

Truth be told, there is no easy solution here.  But even before GM Ruben Amaro hinted at the idea of a six man rotation, the idea had already crossed my mind. 

It seems like the best possible solution, at least for now, and with a six game edge in the division, this seems like a perfect time to experiment a little.

The Phillies should give each of the six a total of three starts. That’s 18 games, which brings us to basically the beginning of September. If everything is going well, they could keep that formula going until the end of the season, because an extra day off between starts can only mean that the arms are a little more rested going into October.

If things don’t go well—say, if Moyer has some bad outings or Pedro can’t go past the fourth inning—then you can make the decision about who to cut based on actual on the field performance, instead of just speculation.

I’ll say it again: The Phillies are well in control of the division, so now is the perfect time to try this little experiment. 

It seems like a win-win to me: keep everyone a little more rested as you go into late September and October, and let each of them prove that they deserve a spot on the rotation.

Joe Blanton Having Solid Season for Philadelphia Phillies

While much of the attention has been focused on Cole Hamels’ struggles, J.A. Happ’s impressive rookie campaign, and the Phillies’ deadline shopping options; Joe Blanton has quietly established himself as the team’s most dependable starter over the past two months.

When he was acquired from Oakland last season, Blanton came with a reputation as an “innings-eater.” While he was certainly solid (4-0, 4.20 ERA) in his 13 starts with the Phillies last season, he averaged only slightly better than 5 1/3 innings per start during that span, more than a full inning below his career average. Not exactly the bullpen-savior many believed he would be.

This year has been a different story entirely.

Through July 26, when he went eight innings against St. Louis in his 19th start of the season, Blanton has been averaging 6 1/3 innings per start. That stat only tells part of the story, because Blanton has been getting progressively better each month this year:

·          In April, Blanton was 0-2 with an 8.41 ERA in four starts while averaging only five innings per start.

·          His five starts in May lasted an average of 6 1/3 innings each, while he went 3-1 with a 4.65 ERA. 

·          June was even better, though Blanton (and the Phillies at-large) struggled to get wins. He averaged 6 1/3 innings per start once again, with a 3.62 ERA and a monthly record of 1-1.

·          July, though, has surpassed all the others. Blanton has been a spectacular 3-0 this month with an ERA of only 1.21. He has pitched into the eighth inning three times this month and has averaged close to 7 2/3 innings per start.

Blanton’s most impressive achievement of the season might be that he has lowered his ERA in every single start since May 26. After entering that game against Florida with a 7.11 ERA, Blanton has reduced that number by three whole runs in the span of only two months. His ERA sits at 4.11 following Sunday’s win over St. Louis.

In the 11 starts he has made dating back to May 26, Blanton has averaged over 6 2/3 innings per start and has a record of 5-1. The Phillies have been only 6-5 in those starts, thanks to their poor performance in support of Blanton during the month of June, which accounts for all five of the losses.

If he pitches well over the next two months, this should go down as the best season of Blanton’s career. He may not win 16 games like he did in 2007 with Oakland, and his ERA may not be as low as the 3.53 mark that he posted in 2005, but the complete package is stronger this year. And, at 28, Blanton is young enough to make you believe he can still get even better.

With the addition of Cliff Lee, Blanton will slide into the No. 3 spot in the rotation, which is a good thing. As good as he has been, you have to be a little nervous with him matched up against another elite team’s No. 2 guy in a postseason series. In the No. 3 spot, he compares much more favorably.

Hamels, Happ, and Lee might be getting most of the attention this year, but if Blanton keeps pitching seven innings or more every time he takes the hill, more people should take notice.

 

Phillies Slamming Door on NL East Early in 2009

After consecutive victories at the wire, the Philadelphia Phillies are shutting the door on the NL East a little earlier this time around.

With a 5-0 victory over the Florida Marlins on Sunday afternoon, Philadelphia extended its lead to a full seven games over the second place Marlins.  For now, Philadelphia is the only team in the division on the positive side of .500, and a 12-1 run since July 2 has given them a larger lead in the standings than they had at any point during their last two campaigns.

And it’s not as if they never gave the competition an opportunity either.  New York, Atlanta, and Florida all failed to take advantage of Philadelphia’s 4-14 run from June 11-July 2.  Only the Marlins posted a winning record during that stretch.

During the worst part of Philadelphia’s slide (a 1-9 run from June 16-26), Florida (6-4), New York (5-6), and Atlanta (4-7) failed to gain much ground.

It’s a safe assumption that Philadelphia will cool off at some point.  But as far as the rest of the division is concerned, the damage might already be done.

Consider this: If the Phillies play only .500 ball the rest of the way, they would end up at 87-75.  Not a particularly stunning record, but it will take a very strong finish for anyone else in this division to match that mark. 

Florida would have to finish 41-28.

Atlanta would need a 42-29 record, while the Mets would have to go 44-28.

For a group of teams that have struggled just to have winning records this year, is there anyone who really believes one of them is capable of that kind of run over the next 10 weeks?

The Marlins are probably the most likely candidate, but the same thing that makes them a threat is also the biggest thing working against them. 

This is the team that started the season 11-1, so they could be capable of going 13 games above .500 for a period of time, but this is also the team that went 8-24 immediately after that.

The Wild Card in all of this is the trade deadline, and who can improve themselves for a strong finish—but will any team that far out be willing to mortgage the future for this season?  Most likely, the Mets, Marlins, and Braves will not take that risk; they will hold their cards for next season.

Also of interest: While Philadelphia’s September surges over the past two seasons have been well documented, the Phillies have made a hot run in July an annual event as well.

In 2007, the Phillies hit the All-Star break at 44-44.  Less than a week later they lost the 10,000th game in team history.  They had been within a few games of .500 all season long.

Then, they embarked on a 9-1 run that brought them within three games of the division-leading Mets, and they easily carried a winning record the rest of the season on their way to an improbable division title.

In 2008, a five-game winning streak at the end of July gave Philly a narrow one-game lead as they entered August.