Domonic Brown: Fantasy Baseball Minor League Player of the Year

The Philadelphia Phillies outfield has one major question mark surrounding it heading into 2011;  two, if you are concerned with the age of Raul Ibanez.

Of course, the major question surrounds Jayson Werth and if he re-signs with the Phillies. Of course, when you have a talent like Domonic Brown waiting in the wings, the concerns are minimized.  He’s gotten a taste of Major League action in 2010 (.214 in 56 AB), but he spent the majority of time in Double & Triple-A, posting the following line:

343 At Bats
.327 Batting Average (112 Hits)
20 Home Runs
68 RBI
65 Runs
17 Stolen Bases
.391 On Base Percentage
.589 Slugging Percentage
.369 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

Brown is deserving of this award (remember, the recipient is someone we think can make an impact in 2011), but that doesn’t mean that we don’t have concerns. First of all is the BABIP, which we all know is above average. Granted, he has the speed to justify a better number, but .370 is a bit too much.

Couple that with a 21.6 percent strikeout rate, which will likely rise when he plays regularly for the Phillies (he’s at 39.3 percent in his limited duty), and it’s impossible to imagine him hitting over .300. 

Brown appears to be more of a .280-ish hitter, max, though that’s certainly not going to make him unusable.

The power is tough to get a grip on. Just look at a few of his fly ball rates:

• Double-A (233 AB) — 41.0 percent
• Triple-A (104 AB) — 25.3 percent
• Major Leagues — 35.1 percent
• Minor League Career (1,581 AB) — 33.5 percent

Brown’s a little bit all over the map, but he’s also just 23 years old, so he still has time to add strength as he continues to grow. Plus, factor in the Citizen’s Bank Ballpark effect, and we aren’t going to worry much about his ability to hit home runs.

As long as he hits the ball in the air enough – which he does – he could accidentally hit 20 home runs. As he adds more power, there’s no reason to think that he can’t be a 30-35 home run threat. He’s shown it already this year, with two home runs in just 28 at-bats in his home ballpark.

He’s not likely to be there yet, but you never know.

The speed is there, there’s little questioning that. 

Brown’s always shown the ability to steal 20-plus bases, and while his ultimate spot in the batting order will determine how much he’s able to run, as well as his RBI and run upside, the potential will be there in 2011.

Of course, the ultimate question is if he fills a spot in the Phillies 2011 lineup. If Werth ultimately re-signs, which is probably unlikely, he’ll find himself back at Triple-A.

However, there are some negatives, and things Brown needs to work on, but his power/speed potential certainly make him a prospect to watch in all formats for 2011.

Others considered:

• Tagg Bozied (3B) — .315, 27 HR, 92 RBI — The presence of Placido Polanco, as well as being a 31-year-old at Double-A, make it impossible to hand him this award.  It’s an impressive season, but he’s not likely to make a major impact in 2011.
• Austin Hyatt (SP) — 12 W, 3.32 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 181 K — The majority of his success has come at Single-A, as he actually struggled in a brief stint at Double-A (4.91 ERA over 22.0 IP).  There’s no guarantee he gets a shot in 2011, but he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on.

What are your thoughts on Brown? Will he be a Phillies regular in 2011? How good could he be?

Make sure to check out previous Fantasy Baseball Minor League Player of the Year Award articles:

• Atlanta Braves
• Kansas City Royals

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Roy Oswalt Dealt to Philadelphia: Fantasy Baseball Trade Deadline Fallout

The Philadelphia Phillies have acquired Roy Oswalt and cash in exchange for J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose, and Jonathan Villar according to MLB Network.

 

The Phillies Get

They create the type of one-two combo they could have had, except that they opted not to keep Cliff Lee once they acquired Roy Halladay in the off season.

With most pitchers you would be concerned with the move to a hitters ballpark, but it is not like Oswalt has called a pitcher’s paradise home in recent years. He has been better on the road (2.68 ERA) this year, but his 3.96 ERA at home is nothing to complain about.

It’s not like he is an extreme fly ball pitcher (36.0 percent in 2010 and 31.9 percent for his career) or gives up a lot of home runs (0.91 HR/9 in 2010 and 0.78 for his career). That should translate to Citizens Bank Park, you would think.

He hasn’t been overly lucky this season, with a .283 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and 73.3 percent strand rate. His control has always been a strength.

The one concern may be his strikeout rate. He currently has a K/9 of 8.4. That’s a full strikeout better than his career mark. In fact, since 2005 he’s only had a K/9 above 7.0 once (7.1 in 2008).

If he were to regress there, his WHIP and ERA would likely suffer slightly, because he would give up more hits (assuming his BABIP remains consistent). Yes it’s a slight concern, but not enough. He actually only had one big strikeout month this season (44 K in 38.1 IP in May).

He’s going to continue to be an above average pitcher, now with the ability to win games. It’s a big boost in his fantasy appeal.

 

The Astros Get

Happ had great numbers in 2009 (12 W, 2.93 ERA and 1.23 WHIP), but he also benefited from an 85.2 percent strand rate so his ERA is a bit deceiving.

Like Oswalt, the ballpark will not be a factor, but he goes into a far worse situation to get wins. That’s a huge hit on his value, as was his less then stellar numbers during his rehab (5.97 ERA).

Then again, he’s shown more strikeout potential in the minor leagues (9.3 K/9 over 528.0 innings prior to 2010), so you would expect the lefties 6.6 K/9 in the majors to improve with experience.

He’s got value in deeper formats, but is not likely to be a must start in 2010. He projects more as a pitcher with a high three, low four ERA for the rest of the year, so don’t expect much more than that.

Gose is an outfielder who was ranked as the Phillies’ sixth-best prospect prior to the season by Baseball America. He is best known for his defense and speed. He had 76 stolen bases in 96 attempts last season, but has struggled slightly this year.

He has 36 stolen bases, but has been caught 27 times at High-A Clearwater. He also needs to improve his ability to make contact, having struck out 103 times in 418 at-bats thus far this season.

Villar is another speed guy, though as a shortstop. He’s hitting .272 with two home runs and 38 stolen bases at Single-A this season, though he too struggles with strikeouts (103 in 371 at-bats).

Neither prospect is close to making an impact.

What are your thoughts on the deal? How is Oswalt’s value affected? What about Happ’s?

Make sure to check out our trade deadline analysis:

Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez

Alberto Callaspo traded to the Angels, Dan Haren traded to the Angels

Jhonny Peralta to the Tigers

Scott Podsednik to the Dodgers

 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Baseball Prospect Report: Domonic Brown

Domonic Brown is, in a way, an insurance policy for the Phillies if they are unable to resign Jayson Werth this winter.  It’s pretty safe to say that the 22-year-old is quite the safety net.

He dominated in Double-A with a .315 average, 15 HR, 47 RBI, 50 R, and 12 SB.  Then, in his new challenge of Triple-A, he has hit .429 with two HR in eight games.

Drafted in the 20th round in the 2006 draft, Brown has slowly progressed through the Phillies farm system. There had previously been concerns about his eye at the plate, but that no longer appears to be an issue. At Double-A this season, he struck out 51 times, good for a 21.6 percent strikeout rate. Couple that with a 10.9 percent walk rate and all that power, it’s more than acceptable.

Scouts talk about five-tool ability and Brown is certainly flashing them all this season with the power being the last thing that seems to be coming around.  He has stolen over 20 bases each of the past two seasons and appears to be well on his way to accomplishing that again.

As for the power, he’s been adding fly balls each year as he grows into his 6′5″ frame:

• 2008-28.8%
• 2009-37.5%
• 2010-41.0% (while playing for Double-A only)

It’s not a surprise that the extra fly balls have led to more power, something that should continue. He’s a big kid and he’s just going to continue to mature and learn to hit the ball over the fences. Just look at what Baseball America, who ranked him as the Phillies top prospects each of the past two seasons, had to say:

“His buggy-whip swing and growing strength give him plus raw power and he’s starting to translate it into production. He has the bat speed and strength to drive mistakes and take advantage when he’s ahead in the count. Brown’s other tools grade out as well or better than his bat.”

While he may not develop into a 35-40 home run guy, he certainly seems to have the talent to be 25/20 at worst.  With the possibility he turns into something even more, fantasy owners have to be drooling.

If injuries continue to cripple the Phillies in 2010 or if Raul Ibanez continues to struggle, it’s possible that he sees time this season (especially if they are fading late), but more likely he gets a September call up to get his feet wet.  Chances are he doesn’t get his real chance until 2011, when he will immediately be a must use fantasy option.

What are your thoughts on Brown? How good do you think he’ll be? Will he be a must use option next season?

Make sure to check out our new Prospect Tracker, for links to the latest updates on all the top prospects in baseball, by clicking here .

Make sure to check out some of our Prospect Reports:

• Dustin Ackley
• Yonder Alonso
• J.P. Arencibia
• Jake Arrieta
• Phillippe Aumont
• Josh Bell
• Jason Castro
• Starlin Castro
• Allen Craig
• Aaron Crow
• Kyle Drabek
• Todd Frazier
• Christian Friedrich
• Jeremy Hellickson
• Daniel Hudson
• Jay Jackson
• Desmond Jennings
• Mike Leake
• Will Myers
• Martin Perez
• Buster Posey
• Gaby Sanchez
• Carlos Santana
• Michael Saunders
• Anthony Slama
• Mike Trout
• Mark Trumbo
• Brett Wallace

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Why Fantasy Baseball Owners Should Be Blah on Phillies’ Joe Blanton

Joe Blanton had a renaissance of sorts in 2009, though it’s impossible for me to say that he was impressive.

He was solid, but is that enough to make him relevant to fantasy owners?  Before we answer that we have to take a closer look at his results.

It was his first full year in the National League, leading to his third-best ERA of his five-year career. The stats:

• 12 wins
• 195.1 innings
• 4.05 ERA
• 1.32 WHIP
• 163 strikeouts (7.51 Ks/9 IP)
• 59 Walks (2.72 BBs/99 IP)
• .302 BABIP

 

The strikeouts are the first number that leaps out at me, as it was his career high.  Just look at his strikeouts per nine innings for his first four full seasons:

• 2005: 5.19
• 2006: 4.96
• 2007: 5.48
• 2008: 5.05

 

Granted, a move to the NL should generate an increase in strikeouts thanks to the weaker lineups and the pitchers hitting, but that significant of a jump? I just don’t see it. This is a pitcher who had struck out more than seven in a game just once prior to 2009, yet managed to put up games of 9, 10, and 11 last season.

It’s just not possible.  He’s not some spring chicken who is just trying to make a name for himself. He is 29. The idea of him being able to maintain this type of rate is just not feasible, given what he has already proven.

He also benefited from an above average strand rate of 78.9 percent. That placed him ninth in the league, after posting marks of 68.9, 68.0 and 68.4 percent the prior three seasons. Again, given his track record, why should we believe that he can maintain this rate?

Blanton’s always allowed a lot of hits, with hitters batting .271 against him in his career (last season he was at .264). That’s just not going to suddenly change. Neither is his walk rate, which is solid but not elite.

So let me get this straight. You have a pitcher: a) who is going to give up his fair share of hits; b) who is going to limit the walks, but by no means is an elite control artist, and c) whose strikeout rate is likely to fall, meaning that he’s going to have to depend on luck to keep his WHIP where it was.

That sounds like a perfect package, doesn’t it? The moral of the story is that his WHIP is likely to take a big hit, and it was just average at best last season.

You couple an increased WHIP with a decreased strand rate? That just has disaster written all over it.

He was much better in the second half, which also says a lot to me:

• First half: 4.44 ERA over 103.1 innings
• Second half: 3.62 ERA over 92.0 innings

 

In fact, he was bad in September, posting a 4.91 ERA. That means he had a stellar July and August, but that’s about it. Given his track record, is that enough to hang your hat on?

Before I give my ultimate answer, let’s look at my 2010 projection:

• 195.0 IP
• 10 wins
• 4.20 ERA
• 1.39 WHIP
• 125 Ks (5.77 Ks/9 IP)
• 61 BBs (2.82 BBs/9 IP)

 

Obviously, he’s a pitcher I have no interest in, even playing for one of the best teams in the NL. He plays in a bandbox (1.38 HRs/9 IP), has little chance of repeating his strikeout rate, and really could take a hit in the ERA and WHIP departments.

He also has proven the type of pitcher he is, meaning that he has no real upside. Why would I want to select him in the late rounds instead of a young pitcher who could excel?  I’ll pass outside of the deepest formats or NL-only leagues, considering I should be able to find a similar option on the waiver wire.

What about you? Would you ever consider drafting Blanton? How do you see him performing in 2010?

If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5) now including a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 List, click here .

For some 2010 projections, click here .  Among those we’ve already covered include:

• Butler, Billy
• Cain, Matt
• Cueto, Johnny
• Gutierrez, Franklin
• Hamels, Cole
• Hamilton, Josh
• Kershaw, Clayton
• Martin, Russell
• Morneau, Justin
• Peralta, Jhonny
• Ramirez, Alexei
• Sizemore, Grady
• Vazquez, Javier
• Votto, Joey
• Youkilis, Kevin
• Young, Michael

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Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Is Jayson Werth a Fantasy Baseball Third-Round Pick in 2010?

Jayson Werth is coming off a career season.  Given his first true chance to play every day, he set career highs in home runs, RBI, and runs. 

He tied his career high in stolen bases as well as posting a usable average.  He was a 35/20 player: just what fantasy owners thirst for.

When you look at his line, you realize how good he was, but should he be going among the first 36 players selected on draft day (his current ADP is 34.35)? 

Before we answer that question, let’s take a look at just how good he was in 2009:

• 571 At Bats
• .268 Batting Average (153 Hits)
• 36 Home Runs
• 99 RBI
• 98 Runs
• 20 Stolen Bases
• .373 On Base Percentage
• .506 Slugging Percentage
• .309 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The number that jumps out at you is his power, considering he had just 33 career home runs prior to the 2008 season.  He had shown signs of being a source of power, hitting 16 HR for the Dodgers in 2004, but he had just never gotten the chance to put it on full display.

The past two seasons he’s been consistent.  In 2008, he posted a slugging percentage of .498, right in line with what he did last season.  The past two seasons he’s posted HR/FB of:

• 2008 – 21.1%
• 2009 – 19.3%

At this point he’s certainly proven that his power is very much for real, though there are a few flags worth mentioning.  He took advantage of his home ballpark in 2009, hitting 21 of his 36 home runs there in 2009.  Can he repeat that type of rate at home?

He also showed a drastic rise in his flyball rate, going from 38.0% to 44.4%.  Over his career, he’s at about 40 percent, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see his power fall a little bit in 2010.  I’m not suggesting a huge falloff, but 30 HR is probably going to be the limit.

With the power has come his opportunity to drive in runs.  When you hit primarily fifth or sixth in a lineup that features Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez, the opportunity is going to be there.  Chances are, in 2010 that is going to be able to continue.

The runs scored is a little bit less of a certainty.  While they have deepened their lineup a little bit, with the addition of Placido Polanco, they aren’t going to have real firepower in the seventh and eighth slots. 

Shane Victorino is going to drive in some runs, but is it realistic to anticipate Werth closing in on 100 once again?  That seems like a dream in my book.

Very few sixth-place hitters have that type of potential, just considering the types of hitters behind them.  Werth is no different.

The average is very usable, but it isn’t elite and likely isn’t going up significantly without a lot of luck.  Over the past two seasons, Werth has posted strikeout rates of 28.5% and 27.3%, respectively.

When you are producing that many outs without putting the ball in play, you need to have significant luck in order to post an average above .280.  He also hasn’t shown the ability to cut down on his strikeouts, considering his career mark of 29.5%.

Simply put, he’s not going to hurt you in the average department, but he’s not likely to help you there either.

As for his speed, he’s posted back-to-back 20 stolen base seasons and that should continue.  The thing is, while he’s extremely efficient when he does run, he doesn’t do it very often.

Over the past two seasons he has gone 40-for-44 in stolen bases.  That alone tells you not to look for a big increase in his totals.  Unless the Phillies instruct him to run significantly more, he just isn’t likely to do so.

So, let’s see what we are looking at for 2010:

.264 (145-550), 29 HR, 95 RBI, 80 R, 19 SB, .309 BABIP, .362 OBP, .495 SLG

Now, the question is do those statistics deserve to be a third round selection?  Here’s just a few of the position players he’s being drafted ahead of:

• Kevin Youkilis
• Ryan Zimmerman
• Justin Morneau
• Adam Lind
• Pablo Sandoval
• Carlos Beltran

That’s not to mention that he’s being selected before any pitcher not named Lincecum, Greinke, Sabathia or Hernandez (most notably, he’s going before Halladay, the No. 2 pitcher on my Top 45 rankings posted yesterday, which you can view by clicking here ).

In fact, he’s being selected around the same time as Justin Upton, who is, on average, going to be the selection before him. 

Does Werth really belong in that class?  He’s a good player, needless to say, but with the anticipated dropoff in power and runs to go along with a modest average, at best, I just feel like this is a bit of a stretch. 

He’s a player I’d like to own, but not at this position in the draft.  So, I wouldn’t anticipate him being on any of my teams in 2010.

What about you?  Would you select Werth this early?  Where would you select him?

Make sure to check out some more of our 2010 projections, including:

• Elvis Andrus
• Gordon Beckham
• Billy Butler
• Everth Cabrera
• Kevin Correia
• Alcides Escobar
• Aaron Harang
• Derrek Lee
• Jhonny Peralta
• B.J. Upton
• Joey Votto
• Matt Wieters

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Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Baseball Prospect Report: Philippe Aumount

When the Seattle Mariners drafted Phillippe Aumont 11th overall in the 2007 MLB draft, many believed he could develop into an ace starter.

However, in 2009, he was transitioned to the bullpen. With his trade to the Philadelphia Phillies eariler month, he has the potential to be a future closer.

Prior to last season, Mariners Director of Minor League Operations, Pedro Grifol, said, “He’s a potential workhorse with well above-average stuff. He has the ability to develop into a top-of-the-rotation type pitcher.”

Pitching in Single- and Double-A in 2009, he worked strictly as a relief pitcher with mixed results. He was solid in Single-A, posting a 3.24 ERA, while striking out 35 over 33.1 innings. 

In Double-A, he was significantly more hittable, posting a 5.09 ERA, while allowing 21 hits over 17.2 innings. He still generated strikeouts, whiffing 24 batters, but his control eluded him. While he walked just 12 prior to his recall, he handed out 11 free passes afterward in nearly half as many innings.

He’s going to need to adjust to being a closer. His ability to do that  will dictate just how good he will be.

He’s armed with a fastball touching 95 mph and a curveball with the potential to be considered a top pitch. He also throws a changeup, but his lack of consistency with the pitch generated his move to the pen.

With just two pitches to rely on to get hitters out, he certainly appears better suited to have a long, meaningful career as a reliver.

Facing a batter once in a game, you certainly can get by with a minimal arsenal. Look no further than Mariano Rivera as proof. Asked to get batters out two, three or more times in a night with just two pitches at your disposal is a completely different story.

At 6′7″, it simply could just be that he needs time to gain control of his full arsenal.  Taller pitchers just seem to take longer to develop, so it is still possible that he becomes a starting pitcher down the road. For now, however, I have to believe that he’s viewed as a relief prospect.

There are a few injury concerns, which also helped guide his move to the bullpen. In 2008, he was plagued by a sore elbow, finding himself on the DL on two occasions (and ending his season on August 21). Last season he broke his hand after blowing a save (he punched a wall). That injury is less concerning in regards to durability questions.

Prior to the 2009 season, Baseball America ranked Aumont as the Mariners third best prospect, saying:

“Aumont cuts an imposing figure on the mound, and his stuff is just as intimidating. He already throws 90-95 mph with plus-plus sink and boring action, and he may be able to throw even harder as he matures physically. If batters sit on his sinker, he can blow a high-90s, four-seam fastball by them. Aumont’s crossfire delivery and low three-quarters arm slot can make it tough for batters to pick up his pitches. His low-80s breaking ball has plus potential.”

That make-up seems perfect to blow people away at the end of the game, a need that the Phillies certainly have. Brad Lidge is a disaster waiting to happen, with no one ever knowing exactly what you are going to get. Will you get the pitcher who was perfect in 2008 or the one who was a disaster in 2009?

Then there’s Ryan Madsen, who had an opportunity to seize the job for himself. Yet, when inserted into the role, failed to do so.

Of course, the Phillies could go out and add another arm to the backend of their bullpen, but there’s no one on the open market who figures to be both a long-term solution and a financially reasonable option.

That means that, in time, they will look from within to fill their gaping hole to close out games. With Aumont now in the system, their solution could not be in-house.

Would it surprise me to see Aumont get a chance in the Major Leagues in 2010?  Absolutely not.  For a team that is in need of bullpen help, it seems more like when, not if, he will make his debut (assuming the Phillies continue to utilize Lidge in relief).

While it’s unlikely that the team entrusts him as their closer, it is not unheard of (think Francisco Rodriguez or Bobby Jenks in the past). That makes him a player to monitor in all formats.

What are your thoughts on Aumont?  Will he make his debut in 2010?  What are the chances that the Phillies give him a chance to close out games?

You can read other recent Prospect Reports including:

• Jason Castro
• Allen Craig
• Aaron Crow
• Kyle Drabek
• Todd Frazier
• Christian Friedrich
• Daniel Hudson
• Jay Jackson

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Kyle Drabek: Baseball Prospect Report

Kyle Drabek, the son of former NL Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek, has seen his name pop up in trade rumors quite a bit in recent months. With the Phillies angling to acquire Cliff Lee (which they did without parting with Drabek) and potentially Roy Halladay, it would make sense that teams would target the player who may be the best pitching prospect in the system.

Pitching between Single and Double-A last season, Drabek went 12-3 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 163 innings in 2009. He showed excellent control, posting a K/9 of 8.23 versus a BB/9 of 2.76. Having undergone Tommy John surgery in 2007, it’s safe to say that he is showing no ill effects from the procedure.

His curveball is his calling card, with Padres prospect Mat Latos (who played with Drabek in 2005 at the “Aflac All-American High School Baseball Classic at the Cal Ripken complex in Aberdeen, MD” according to this  ESPN article), saying:

“I’ve seen a lot of curveballs and some nasty sliders, but not a curveball like that. All I could think was, ‘I’m glad I’m not a hitter.”’

He also features a fastball that sits between 88 and 93 mph, which “usually at the top end of that range, and has solid-average life according to Baseball America. Also in his arsenal is a changeup, though it is clearly his third pitch.

At 22-years-old, the right-handed pitcher has one major flaw, and that is his performance against left-handed hitters. Righties hit .185 against him last season—a spectacular number—whereas lefties hit .284. Part of it was poor luck, with a .351 BABIP, but it is a trend that has to be watched closely.

His overall BABIP of .305 is realistic, and even with an improvement against left-handed hitters, you cannot expect him to maintain a .246 mark against righties. At the end of the day, you could easily expect a .305 number overall, as his performance against lefties should improve, while he will not be quite as lucky against righties.

He did a tremendous job keeping the ball in the ballpark last season, posting a HR/FB of 4.8 percent.

Is it a number that he can maintain in the upper levels of the minors? At Double-A it was 7.2 percent (HR/FB of 0.82), so it is safe to assume that he is going to see a bit more of an increase there. That, in turn, will affect his ERA.

He also saw a significant decrease in his strikeouts as he moved up levels:

1) Single-A: 10.41 (64.0 IP)

2) Double-A: 6.82 (99.0 IP)

With the stuff that he has, I can’t see him falling any further than he did, even against more experienced hitters. Keep in mind that he very easily could have simply tired as the season wore on. Look at his innings pitched totals since his minor league debut in 2006, thanks in part to his serious injury:

1) 2006—23.1

2) 2007—54.0

3) 2008—32.1

While he is not likely to be a double-digit strikeout artist, I could easily see him maintain a seven plus K/9 range even in Triple-A or the Major Leagues.

With all that said, what do I see for Drabek in 2010? A lot is going to depend on the moves the Phillies make. Will they part with him? Will they acquire a starting pitcher?  Sure up the bullpen?

There are some who feel that Drabek could transition well to the bullpen, but that just wouldn’t make much sense to me. I know they are in need of help, but it makes more sense for them to invest money there this offseason, keeping Drabek for when they are in need of a starting pitcher.

It’s only a matter of time before the Phillies are in need there, given the state of the rotation, so look for him to make an appearance at some point. There is some risk, especially given the falloff he had once promoted to Double-A, but do not be mistaken.  He is a very good pitching prospect (ranked by Baseball America as the Phillies Np. 2 prospect heading into 2010) and is certainly worth owning in all dynasty formats.

What are your thoughts on Drabek? How good could he be? Will he make an impact in 2010?

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Why Cole Hamels Will Rebound in the Second Half

Cole Hamels’ struggles this season have been curious, to say the least. His peripherals look similar to, if not slightly better than in 2008, when he posted a 3.09 ERA and 196 Ks over 227.1 innings. 

Something is clearly going on, though at this point what “it” is a mystery, which has contributed to him posting a line of:

5 Wins
98.0 Innings
4.87 ERA
1.38 WHIP
98 Strikeouts (7.81 K/9)
18 Walks (1.65 BB/9)
.348 BABIP

The strikeout rate is very similar to last year’s 7.76. The walks are actually at a career low after posting BB/9s of 2.11 and 2.10 the previous two seasons. His flyball rate is down slightly from 38.7 percent to 36.8 percent, though the HR/FB is up from 11.2 percent to 13.5 percent.

Yes, that may contribute to a slight regression, but not the disastrous first half he’s posted.

Last year his fastball averaged 90.4 mph, while this season he’s at 90.0. There is no difference there, but the amount that he’s throwing his fastball is up significantly:

• 2007: 54.3 percent
• 2008: 54.8 percent
• 2009: 59.6 percent

That certainly makes you wonder, especially considering the success that he had last season. Is it just the situations, or is he calling for more fastballs? It’s possible.

Could he just not have the same confidence in his secondary pitches? This is also possible. 

He was consistent between 2007 and 2008, when he was extremely successful and emerged as one of the best young pitchers in baseball. His decision to become more reliant on the fastball, like he did in his rookie season of 2006 (61.1 percent and posted a 4.08 ERA), tells us something.

Is it enough to explain such a drastic falloff, though?

Remember, he did have a problem with his elbow during the spring, though there has been no talk of that being a lingering issue. We could speculate that it has affected his performance, but I’m not buying it. 

Could a significant increase in innings be playing a factor? 

In 2007 he threw a total of 190 innings between the regular season and the postseason. Last season he was at 262.1.

I’ve never been a big believer in that theory. 

People had the same concerns about Tim Lincecum entering 2009, and look at how he’s performed (2.33 ERA, 1.05 WHIP). 

To make a blanket statement that pitchers cannot handle an increased innings load is a mistake because each pitcher is unique. 

Some will prove capable, and some will prove incapable.

It’s like anything else in life.

Maybe he’s the one that will prove unable to throw such a drastic number of innings from year-to-year, but to me, that is still an unproven theory. In fact, when you look at his second half numbers the past two seasons, it appears likely he will get better as the season wears on:

• 2007: 5-1, 2.78 ERA
• 2008: 5-4, 2.98 ERA

That doesn’t seem like the profile of a pitcher who tires due to excessive innings, does it?

You can’t even look towards the hitter’s haven he calls home, considering his ERA at Citizen’s Bank Ballpark is 3.92, compared to a 6.34 ERA on the road. Last season he posted a 2.99 home ERA, so it’s obvious he knows how to pitch in that park.

The truth of the matter is that he’s simply not performing this season thus far, but is it really something to be concerned with?

He’s allowed four or more earned runs in seven starts this season, matching his total prior to the All-Star Game in ‘08. 

Granted, his first half ERA last season was 3.15, compared to 4.87, but a lot of that has to do with significant bad luck.

His BABIP ties him for the third worst in the league with Aaron Harang, behind only Ricky Nolasco and Kevin Slowey. It would seem almost impossible to expect him to continue pitching to such bad luck.

He’s too talented a pitcher to continue to struggle like this, and sooner or later his numbers are going to regress back to the mean. 

He has proven to be an excellent second half pitcher, and with improved luck, there’s no reason to think he’s not going to return to pitching like one of the aces of the league.

Would I shy away from acquiring him? Not at all. 

If you are looking for pitching help in the second half, he’s a prime candidate to help push you over the top. With the way he’s continued to struggle, someone in your league may even be willing to sell a little bit low on him. I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Here are my second half projections for him:

73.0 IP, 7 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 64 K (7.89 K/9), 24 BB (2.96 BB/9)

What do you think? Will Hamels be able to recover and return to dominance? Is he a pitcher you are shying away from? Are my projections too optimistic?

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Could Pedro Martinez Prove Fantasy Usable?

With Pedro Martinez officially signing with the Phillies, there’s a big question mark as to if he will be worth using in fantasy formats. Let’s delve into the numbers and see.

First of all, don’t expect him in the Phillies rotation until late July/early August, as he was immediately put on the DL and will be given time in the minor leagues to prepare for his return to the majors. 

Therefore, if you are looking for an immediate boost to your rotation, he’s certainly not the answer.

For those who are willing to wait another two to three weeks, let’s take a look at things. 

Last season he called Shea Stadium home, certainly a park that is more favorable to pitchers, yet allowed 19 home runs in just 15 starts (HR/9 of 1.57). If you dig into this a little deeper, things are a bit more disturbing.

Of those 19 home runs, only five came at home in 45 innings. Of the remaining 15, four of those, just one fewer than he allowed at his home ballpark, came at Citizens Bank Park in just 10.1 innings!

He didn’t pitch in the ballpark in 2007, but in 2006 he did pitch eight innings without allowing a home run. Of course, he still allowed nine earned runs (10.13 ERA), so it’s not like he fared well. 

Obviously, the opponent does play a factor, and the Phillies have one of the more potent lineups around. Still, it’s hard to argue that he has had any type of success in the ballpark in the past.

Just to go back to the home runs for a second, it’s amazing that they came courtesy of a fly ball rate of just 35.3 percent. Consider his rates from the previous four seasons (2007 was just 28 innings):

• 2004: 42.8 percent
• 2005: 44.6 percent
• 2006: 44.3 percent
• 2007: 44.2 percent

If he’s going to regress to those numbers—and it is hard to imagine him not—the balls are simply going to continue flying out of the ballpark, especially in Philadelphia, where a pop-up can manage to carry out. That’s certainly not a positive thing to think about.

Martinez is coming off a career-worst K/9 (7.18), and last I heard his fastball was sitting right around 85 mph. 

Last season, he averaged 87.7 mph on his fastball, and he had already been forced to transform himself from the power pitcher he once was into more of a finesse artist.

He’s a true competitor, and I wouldn’t count him out, but nothing is pointing to too much success in my eyes. 

Granted, with a high-powered offense helping him out, it’s very possible that he picks up a fair share of wins. The real question is, can he possibly help you anywhere else?

Consider:

• He’s pitching in a ballpark where he has had little to no success.
• His strikeouts could continue to fall.
• His home runs could be similar to last season, making a useful ERA impossible.

Put those three things together, and it just adds up to a pitcher that you should avoid in all formats. 

There’s the chance that he strings together a solid start or two in a row. He’s going to do everything he can to be successful and prove the other clubs who bypassed him that they made a mistake. 

Unfortunately, I just don’t see how he could put things together for two months and prove useful.

What about you? Is Martinez a pitcher you think is worth owning? If so, how good do you think he’ll be?

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Fantasy Report: Pitcher Antonio Bastardo of the Philadelphia Phillies

According to the Phillies official website, the team will use 23-year old lefty Antonio Bastardo in the rotation to replace the injured Brett Myers, at least in the short-term.  Rumors have been flying regarding potential trade targets, but if Bastardo blows them away who knows what may happen.

Bastardo went undrafted in 2007 before signing with the Phillies and being assigned to Single-A. There he made a quick impression, going 9-0 with a 1.87 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 15 starts. He got a cup of coffee with the High Single-A team at the end of the year, striking out 12 in 5 innings but also giving up 4 earned runs.

His 2008 season was marred by shoulder problems but he still was able to make an impact. Between High Single A and Double-A, he went 4-5 with a 2.95 ERA over 97.2 innings. While he struck out 109 batters, only 62 came in Double-A (in 67.0 innings)

Bastardo started 2009 at Double-A as a relief pitcher, going 2-2 with a 1.82 ERA over 34.2 innings (9 games, 5 starts).  He was then bumped up to Triple A, where he debuted on May 23 with a bang. He gave up 3 runs on 5 hits with 2 walks and 11 strikeouts in 6 innings.  Before we get blown away with the Ks, he followed up this performance with just 1 K over 7 shutout innings in his only other Triple-A start (he had 39 Ks in 34.2 innings at Double-A).

Prior to the season the team thought he could be a useful lefty out of the bullpen, which is why he started the season in relief.  In an article by David Murphy in The Philadelphia Daily News, pitching coach Rich Dubee was quoted as saying, “With the work that we have done on the breaking ball, we think he might be a possibility up here some time this year if the breaking ball continues to come.”  Obviously, there was a change of plans.

The breaking ball he is referring to was said to originally be a combination curveball/slider, but now is a true slider.  He also has a change-up that reportedly is a good out pitch. Bastardo also uses a fastball which Nick Fierro of Lehigh Valley Live reports, “According to IronPigs manager Dave Huppert, the 5-foot-11, 168-pound Bastardo makes a slightly above-average fastball almost unhittable because of his deceptive motion.”

Prior to 2009, Baseball America had him outside of the team’s Top 10 prospects.  I wouldn’t read that much into that, however. Remember, he went undrafted. It’s not like he hasn’t been undervalued in the past.

The real question is going to be how his repertoire correlates into success not just at the major league level, but in Citizen’s Bank Ballpark.  While his minor league career HR per 9 innings is an impressive 0.7 that number would normally increase, at least marginally, with his recall.  Put him in that ballpark and you just don’t know what he’s going to be able to do.

I also think the strikeouts are slightly skewed.  He’s not going to be a 10.0 K per 9 innings pitcher in the major leagues using deception alone.  Could he be someone who strikes out 7 or 8 batters a game on average?  It’s certainly possible, but I just don’t see him as being one of the elite.

His first start will come on Tuesday in San Diego, which certainly will not be the best way to draw conclusions.  The fact that he may also just be a short-term band-aid, no matter how well he pitches, is a concern.  In deep keeper leagues though, he’s a pitcher I certainly would eye.

He’s going to have a good offense behind him and has the potential to be a useful strikeout option.  That alone gives him pitch and ditch qualities, but he could turn out to be more than that.  If you have the room, I’d stash him and see what happens.

What does everyone else think?  Is Bastardo a pitcher you have any interest in?  Do you think he could be successful?

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